The North Korean Situation II

[Thundercrack85]

Originally Posted by Fading

I always wondered if the Jong's believed their own hype. Given that they, or atleast the top ppl in NK's gov, make up these rumors. I just wonder if growing up with an entire country brainwashed into worshipping you, and thinking you've done all of these crazy things has had a psychological effect on Un where he believes it too. Maybe he does think he's invincible. It's just odd to think he's taught while growing up that he's done all of these amazing things he knows he didn't do. Then again if you repeat a lie enough to yourself you can begin to believe it.

I do have a question though, what does China gain from being NK's ally? Do they use them indirectly as a rabid attack dog? Reaping personal growth from NK causing instability in other asian territories? Is it because of Japan, and China's hostilities, where China hopes NK will nuke Japan one day without China having to dirty it's hands? I just ask because NK seems like such an unpredictable, unstable, non-economic power house for China to risk constantly being put in akward situations over. I mean, while I feel awful for them over this, there's talk of multiple cannibalism amongst starving NK's right now.

The main reason is that they don't want a reunified Korea. At least, that was their goal during the Cold War. A unified pro-American Korea on China's border would be a major pain in the ass.

Now, they're just doing it because, if North Korea collapses, it's bad news for everyone. Millions of starving refugees, and nukes in the hands of brainwashed fanatics. Also, North Korea is a good distraction for South Korea.

So, really, China has lost control of the situation. Damned if they do, and damned if they don't.

[chamber-music]

China and Russia don't want to see a nuclear armed North Korea anymore than we do. North Korea likes to mouth off and push buttons but if things get real bad Russia and China will pull the plug on North Korea. Neither of them wants some crazy nuclear state like that in their backyard.

[Matt Mortem]

NK is really unpredictable and I don't think China is going to tolerate it too much longer. A big concern for me is what's going to happen to all those people once China pulls the last plug.

[chamber-music]

Without China backing North Korea I predict the regime would collapse within a couple years.

[Thundercrack85]

But then what? There's a reason China support North Korea.

North Korea has a huge military, which now has nuclear weapons. Letting that turn into Somalia would destabilize the entire region. Not to mention millions of starving refugees pouring into China.

[Marvolo]

Originally Posted by Thundercrack85

But then what? There's a reason China support North Korea.

North Korea has a huge military, which now has nuclear weapons. Letting that turn into Somalia would destabilize the entire region. Not to mention millions of starving refugees pouring into China.

China could refuse to allow NKoreans into China. Couldn't China, the UN or even South Korea step in and take the North from the crazy military leftovers after China pulls the plug?

[chamber-music]

I'm not sure North Korea would turn into a Somalia. I don't think there are alot of factions in North Korea that willing to fight for power if you remove the party leaders and the generals. North Korea like alot of tradional Asian countries is isolationist by nature. Militaries don't march on empty stomaches which is what they will have if China cuts off their food supply.

[Kelly]

Originally Posted by chamber-music

I'm not sure North Korea would turn into a Somalia. I don't think there are alot of factions in North Korea that willing to fight for power if you remove the party leaders and the generals. North Korea like alot of tradional Asian countries is isolationist by nature. Militaries don't march on empty stomaches which is what they will have if China cuts off their food supply.

Somalia and North Korea are two totally different types of societies. You could compare Afghanistan with Somalia, but North Korea is a totally different animal.

[Marvolo]

Originally Posted by chamber-music

I'm not sure North Korea would turn into a Somalia. I don't think there are alot of factions in North Korea that willing to fight for power if you remove the party leaders and the generals. North Korea like alot of tradional Asian countries is isolationist by nature. Militaries don't march on empty stomaches which is what they will have if China cuts off their food supply.

The people are already starving, and if reports are to be believed resorting to awful things (canabalism and digging up corpses) so if the government collapses the people most likely won't have the energy or care to fight in factions. They will just be looking for help.

[Kelly]

Originally Posted by Marvolo

The people are already starving, and if reports are to be believed resorting to awful things (canabalism and digging up corpses) so if the government collapses the people most likely won't have the energy or care to fight in factions. They will just be looking for help.

I think we could compare this to the Russian Revolution (s) the thing that has to happen, and I don't think it will in North Korea, but did happen in Czarist Russia is for the army to turn on the powers that be. IMO, that is the only way that North Korea will ever see even a glimpse of freedom.

If that did happen however, they would have a much better chance at keeping that freedom moreso than the people of Russia because most everyone turned their backs on Russia at the time, but South Korea would be a strong catalyst of freedom to those in North Korea.

[Marvolo]

Originally Posted by Kelly

I think we could compare this to the Russian Revolution (s) the thing that has to happen, and I don't think it will in North Korea, but did happen in Czarist Russia is for the army to turn on the powers that be. IMO, that is the only way that North Korea will ever see even a glimpse of freedom.

If that did happen however, they would have a much better chance at keeping that freedom moreso than the people of Russia because most everyone turned their backs on Russia at the time, but South Korea would be a strong catalyst of freedom to those in North Korea.

There is so much indocrination in NKorea that I wouldn't trust anyone in power to do the right thing. I would think you would need to remove the government, the military, the propagnda machine to allow any postive change. Then offer the people help and work towards disproving preconceptions.

I saw where SKorea has unvieled a new missle to counter NKorea's nuclear arms buildup. This seems like the wrong way to go. Funneling SKorean ideas and truth into the North to undermine NKorean propaganda would seem a better approach. The people are so starved and desparate that maybe something would take hold. Start a resistance, and let the people have their day. Bring NKorea down from the inside, and tear dwn the DMZ so that SKorea can get in there and do some good. Though, knowing NKorea they probably have a dead man's switch to launch various nukes in the event of an overthrow.

[chamber-music]

The North Koreans that escaped to South Korea, China and so on seemed to adapt pretty
fast and well.

I'm sure some North Koreans are brainwashed but I think many of them aren't. As soon as you open the border and show north koreans whats out there they will be screaming for change or running for the exit which is why the state doesn't give out passports unless approved by the regime and the outside world is kept out for the most part.

[Kelly]

Originally Posted by Marvolo

There is so much indocrination in NKorea that I wouldn't trust anyone in power to do the right thing. I would think you would need to remove the government, the military, the propagnda machine to allow any postive change. Then offer the people help and work towards disproving preconceptions.

I saw where SKorea has unvieled a new missle to counter NKorea's nuclear arms buildup. This seems like the wrong way to go. Funneling SKorean ideas and truth into the North to undermine NKorean propaganda would seem a better approach. The people are so starved and desparate that maybe something would take hold. Start a resistance, and let the people have their day. Bring NKorea down from the inside, and tear dwn the DMZ so that SKorea can get in there and do some good. Though, knowing NKorea they probably have a dead man's switch to launch various nukes in the event of an overthrow.

The only way you are going to remove those is to go in and forcefully remove them...and the people themselves cannot do that, we are seeing this play out in Syria as we speak. That is how we would like to see it done, but it won't work out that way without an outside party coming in.

We also have the problem in the Middle East at least of tribal factions, which is why Iraq is having so many problems, and why Afghanistan will never be a solid independent Democracy of any kind. BUT, NKorea is different from those, if those things can be thrown out as you said, and another group comes into power (that has NO TIES to the late group) then N Korea has a good chance.

[chamber-music]

The tribal war stuff had been a route of alot of trouble in Africa as well as the middle east. North Korea doesn't have to worry about that stuff.

[Destructus86]

Originally Posted by chamber-music

The North Koreans that escaped to South Korea, China and so on seemed to adapt pretty
fast and well.

I'm sure some North Koreans are brainwashed but I think many of them aren't. As soon as you open the border and show north koreans whats out there they will be screaming for change or running for the exit which is why the state doesn't give out passports unless approved by the regime and the outside world is kept out for the most part.

that will only happen once the current regime is completely destroyed.

[Thundercrack85]

Originally Posted by Marvolo

China could refuse to allow NKoreans into China. Couldn't China, the UN or even South Korea step in and take the North from the crazy military leftovers after China pulls the plug?

They would have to kill them. When the Soviet Union dropped support of North Korea, thousands fled into China, and they did that starving, through barbed wire, mine fields, and North Korean soldiers shooting them. Good luck stopping them.

Somalia isn't the best metaphor. What would probably happen if North Korea collapses is that powerful generals would take command of their local militaries, and turn provinces into fiefdoms. Not unlike China in the early 20th century during the warlord era. Only difference is, instead of armored trains and cavalry, they would have tanks, jets and possibly nukes.

China and South Korea would probably take over parts of the country, but North Koreans are fanatically nationalistic and militaristic (not unlike Imperial Japan, really). It's really an unprecedented nightmare.

[Marvolo]

Originally Posted by Thundercrack85

They would have to kill them. When the Soviet Union dropped support of North Korea, thousands fled into China, and they did that starving, through barbed wire, mine fields, and North Korean soldiers shooting them. Good luck stopping them.

Somalia isn't the best metaphor. What would probably happen if North Korea collapses is that powerful generals would take command of their local militaries, and turn provinces into fiefdoms. Not unlike China in the early 20th century during the warlord era. Only difference is, instead of armored trains and cavalry, they would have tanks, jets and possibly nukes.

China and South Korea would probably take over parts of the country, but North Koreans are fanatically nationalistic and militaristic (not unlike Imperial Japan, really). It's really an unprecedented nightmare.

The saddest part is that no matter what happens I don't see any possible victory for the civillians of NKorea. No matter how this goes down the civillians living there when it goes down will be doomed. After so many years of indoctrination and propoganda their chances of getting out of NKorea alive and integrating into a democratic or captalist style society seems slim to none.

[Thundercrack85]

I think that reality is finally setting in. For decades, people talked about reunification, a la East and West Germany. But the difference between North and South Korea is so great now. It's a fantasy.

Every individual North Korean has to be rehabilitated. The entire country is mentally and physically stunted.

North Korea collapsing is actually the ideal outcome. We're assuming it won't turn into a nuclear war, which is actually quite possible. When you have a military made up of fanatics with a genocidal hatred, on the brink of collapse, and they have nuclear weapons at their disposal, that's a very dangerous combination.

[Kelly]

Originally Posted by chamber-music

The tribal war stuff had been a route of alot of trouble in Africa as well as the middle east. North Korea doesn't have to worry about that stuff.

Oh, definitely but in Africa it also had the help of the colonizing countries pushing the buttons of those ethnic groups to keep the eyes of those ethnic groups on each other and off of them....But definitely, I agree...

[chamber-music]

There may be some countries pushing buttons but I think more of it is internal. In Kenya you had political rivals hire and rally ethnic groups to attack one another. I don't think you can blame the old white imperialists for many of those things that go on. In many instances the instabilityand conflict makes it even harder for the west and china to get at Africa's natural resources which is what both sides really want

The difference between North Korea and South Korea is huge now far more than East and West Germany was. Germany is still to this day dealing with issues from the legacy of the split socially and economically. If Korea reunited it would be even more of a stuggle.

[Destructus86]

Originally Posted by Thundercrack85

I think that reality is finally setting in. For decades, people talked about reunification, a la East and West Germany. But the difference between North and South Korea is so great now. It's a fantasy.

Every individual North Korean has to be rehabilitated. The entire country is mentally and physically stunted.

North Korea collapsing is actually the ideal outcome. We're assuming it won't turn into a nuclear war, which is actually quite possible. When you have a military made up of fanatics with a genocidal hatred, on the brink of collapse, and they have nuclear weapons at their disposal, that's a very dangerous combination.

Exactly...and that's what a lot of people don't understand. They are using REASON to understand the situation, giving themselves a false sense of security. "Oh, NK would never attack the us. it's saber rattling because they know they would love"

That's the thing...NK DOESN'T think they would lose. Every single leader NK has right now was brainwashed from birth to believe they are superior and unstoppable. We can't use our basis of reason to define how NK thinks. Would they attack the US? I think they would, I have no doubt that if it looked like they were going to collapse they would launch nukes just because it's the only option they would have left if their army collapsed from lack of financial support.

[Thundercrack85]

I think it's most telling when you see those big demonstrations, and you see soldiers covered in medals - even though North Korea hasn't seen a war since 1953. These people do not live in the same reality as the rest of the world.

The North Korea / East Germany analogy fails for a number of reasons. East Germany was always a puppet state of the USSR. It never had its own nationalism, and dynastic leadership.

North Korea is dependent on China for fuel and food, but it's becoming apparent that China has lost most of its influence over North Korea. North Korea is playing everyone.

[Fading]

Originally Posted by Marvolo

The saddest part is that no matter what happens I don't see any possible victory for the civillians of NKorea. No matter how this goes down the civillians living there when it goes down will be doomed. After so many years of indoctrination and propoganda their chances of getting out of NKorea alive and integrating into a democratic or captalist style society seems slim to none.

Agreed. Given what other countries do to traitors, I can only imagine what a nuke armed, collapsing NK would do. Those in power rarely want to give it up, especially when the entire country is brainwashed into worshipping them. Given that the ppl are already desperate (given canibalism rumors), there's going to be a breaking point eventually. If the ppl try to leave in mass, and the leadership tries to hold onto power after China cuts them loose. I could see them turn the military on their own ppl, atleast those fleeing. Given that they won't be in the best mental, or physical condition at that point, I can't see it being an easy road out of the country into anothers borders.

The question being how long until other nations intervene, and NK's reaction to that. If things get bad, and the US leads a UN collalition in (because let's face it, the NK ppl aren't going to rebel like the arab spring), do the NK gov nuke their own (including our forces in the country at the time) on the way down. I think, despite our strength, we have to handle the situation delicately. Fanatical ppl, and leadership are too unpredictable to think everything will go to plan. It could end up as Vietnam part 2 with the ppl helping their gov in fire fights.


BTW, I never understood military turning on it's own ppl. A military is made up OF volunteers from the ppl. I couldn't shoot my family, and friends because I was ordered to. I'd rather die than do that. So it confuses me personally how so many dictators can easily convince their militaries to open fire on their own loved ones, and neighbors.

[Mr. Wooden Alligator]

This idea might sound childish, but would a coordinated assassination against the kid heading the country and the heads of the propaganda machine do more harm than good for the North Korea civilians?

[the_ultimate_evil]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wooden Alligator

This idea might sound childish, but would a coordinated assassination against the kid heading the country and the heads of the propaganda machine do more harm than good for the North Korea civilians?

the problem with that is, the country already believe the family are living gods. if someone takes him out it'll be easily spun in to martyrdom and used as an excuse for any agenda the next guy has