TDKR Oscar Chances?

[Doc Holliday]

I wouldn't call "Nolan IS the master of the practical special effects" a statistic...

Spoiler!!! Click to Read!:

Also

[RedSkull]

I cant believe this thread exists so soon

[Boom]

I've heard that they're reducing the Best Picture category back down to five nominations. Can't remember where I read it, but I distinctly remember reading that. In which case, even if TDKR is a vastly superior film to TDK, I'd still say it's chances at nominations for Best Picture and Best Directer are zero.

[kvz5]

Originally Posted by Boom

I've heard that they're reducing the Best Picture category back down to five nominations. Can't remember where I read it, but I distinctly remember reading that. In which case, even if TDKR is a vastly superior film to TDK, I'd still say it's chances at nominations for Best Picture and Best Directer are zero.

I believe the new rule is that they're not required to nominate 10 films now. They can nominate as few as 5 and as much as 10. I could be wrong though... But that new rule definitely gives them an excuse to not nominate films that otherwise would've been nominated the previous year where 10 films were the requirement.

[Lord]

Wouldn't it be funny if TDKR, The Avengers and The Amazing Spider-Man ended up being 3 of the nominees for Best Picture?
Impossible, but interesting

[Boom]

My God, AMPAS. Make up your damn mind and stick to your convictions.

[Lord]

Originally Posted by Boom

My God, AMPAS. Make up your damn mind and stick to your convictions.

Who?

[Doc Holliday]

Originally Posted by Lord

Who?

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.

[byte19]

oh I'm not f'n with this....

Spoiler!!! Click to Read!:

[jmc]

Geez, talk about way to early.

[moviedoors]

High for nominations, and big ones. The Academy has a track record of trying to rectify past mistakes, and not nominating The Dark Knight and not ever nominating Nolan for best director were widely discussed and publicized mistakes.

As far as winning? Way, way to early to reasonably discuss. But nominations? I'd bet money on it right now, if I wasn't broke that is.

[Visiting Arkham]

This isn't exactly about the film's chances in 2013, but the 2012 Oscars will definitely give this film an even greater pedigree and propel the mainstream's excitement into the stratosphere.

Tom Hardy has been getting a lot of buzz for his performance in Warrior (which would probably be Best Supporting Actor), while Gary Oldman has gotten even greater buzz for his lead role in Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (which also has a supporting role by Hardy, though I haven't heard the same hype for this performance). So when the media blitz begins for TDKR, we could have The Dark Knight Rises starring...

Academy Award Winner Christian Bale
Academy Award Winner Michael Caine
Academy Award Winner Gary Oldman
Academy Award Nominee Anne Hathaway
Academy Award Winner Tom Hardy
Joseph Gordon Levitt (wah wah)
Academy Award Winner Marion Cotillard
Academy Award Winner Morgan Freeman

While it's far from guaranteed that Oldman and Hardy will win Oscars, but with the buzz they are getting I'd be shocked if neither was at least nominated.

[kvz5]

Gary has really, really good chances. I think a nod is a sure thing and a win is possible. It will come down to him and Leonardo Di Caprio (with Ralph Fiennes as the wild card because no one messes with the Weinsteins!). Not sure about Hardy yet. He might get lost in the shuffle. It's a very competitive year for both Lead Actor and Supporting Actor. From what I'm reading, Nick Nolte seems to be getting the most Oscar buzz from Warrior (for Supporting Actor) so they might push Hardy to Lead Actor and that might hurt his chances. Actually, Joe is getting some buzz for 50/50 so don't count him out yet.

Anyway, even this is way too early... Lots of films/actors get lost in the shuffle or their buzz fizzle and some late films/actors come out of nowhere ad gain momentum (like Bardem last year).

[jmc]

Originally Posted by moviedoors

High for nominations, and big ones. The Academy has a track record of trying to rectify past mistakes, and not nominating The Dark Knight and not ever nominating Nolan for best director were widely discussed and publicized mistakes.

Explain Nolan's absence last year then. If ever there should have been a 'we're sorry we ****ed up' nomination it was Nolan's work on Inception, which is a better movie than TDK.

[KRIM]

The uproar was over TDK not getting a nomination for Best Picture. Consequently, Inception got its nomination in the category. Nolan got his nod, only for original screenplay.

[jmc]

Picture and Director. It was a disgrace on both occasions that Nolan missed out, especially Inception, apparently it was a good movie with a good story but the directing wasn't good enough, work that one out. I'm inclined to believe that nothing will change with Rises so it's pointless worrying about it.

[Liam_H]

First of all this is way too early, for all we know we have a SM3 or X3 on our hands next year. But I trust in Nolan so hopefully not. Even basing it off future trailers is too soon, we have to actually see the movie first.

Originally Posted by Boom

I've heard that they're reducing the Best Picture category back down to five nominations. Can't remember where I read it, but I distinctly remember reading that. In which case, even if TDKR is a vastly superior film to TDK, I'd still say it's chances at nominations for Best Picture and Best Directer are zero.

The best picture nominations are now a minimum of 5 to a max of 10. A movie can only be nominated for best picture if it has at least 5% of first place votes. This way no movie can slip in just because everything else was crap but you were the best of the crap so your in.

[moviedoors]

Originally Posted by jmc

Explain Nolan's absence last year then. If ever there should have been a 'we're sorry we ****ed up' nomination it was Nolan's work on Inception, which is a better movie than TDK.

That just strengthens my case. He's even more over due for at least a nomination now than he was before. To boot, he's just so good that it's going to happen eventually anyway. He's been a critical darling since Memento, but after his last two, he's become a force of nature to be reckoned with. He's become a Jackson, a Cameron, a Spielberg level filmmaker. He's Oscars are only a matter of time now.

You watch. It'll happen. The Dark Knight Rises is going to get him his best director Oscar nomination.

[Liam_H]

Originally Posted by moviedoors

That just strengthens my case. He's even more over due for at least a nomination now than he was before. To boot, he's just so good that it's going to happen eventually anyway. He's been a critical darling since Memento, but after his last two, he's become a force of nature to be reckoned with. He's become a Jackson, a Cameron, a Spielberg level filmmaker. He's Oscars are only a matter of time now.

You watch. It'll happen. The Dark Knight Rises is going to get him his best director Oscar nomination.

I wouldn't be so sure because we don't know whats coming out in 2012, what the competition will be. Nolan could easily be snubbed because his movies aren't what academy voters like to nominate. Snobby they are but that's how it is.

[raynorWilm]

Two months ago I would say that if TDKR is anywhere near the commercial success that TDK was then the film would be a given for a Best Picture nomination. Now with the new system of figuring out the nominees (between 5-10) I'm not sure. As we've stated before here, TDKR isn't the type of film that academy voters go for. (Full disclosure: I'm still bitter over The King's Speech win over Social Network. Perfect example of academy voters tastes impacting the winners). The category was expanded basically because of what happened to TDK and it wouldn't be likely that they would keep TDKR out. (Although, again, they left Nolan out of last year's Best Director category when many thought he was guaranteed a nomination. They also went against predictions choosing Hooper when many thought is was finally Fincher's time to win.) So at this point my gut it saying that it won't be nominated unless it is THAT MUCH BETTER of a film than TDK, which I don't see happening.

Oh well, Chris and Chris' films will be nominated in the future, and that is a guarantee. We'll have to settle will considering his Bat-films the very best of the genre.

[Sith Scotti]

If Batman dies , it becomes the oscar favorite

[shortchange]

Originally Posted by kvz5

Gary has really, really good chances. I think a nod is a sure thing and a win is possible. It will come down to him and Leonardo Di Caprio (with Ralph Fiennes as the wild card because no one messes with the Weinsteins!). Not sure about Hardy yet. He might get lost in the shuffle. It's a very competitive year for both Lead Actor and Supporting Actor. From what I'm reading, Nick Nolte seems to be getting the most Oscar buzz from Warrior (for Supporting Actor) so they might push Hardy to Lead Actor and that might hurt his chances. Actually, Joe is getting some buzz for 50/50 so don't count him out yet.

Anyway, even this is way too early... Lots of films/actors get lost in the shuffle or their buzz fizzle and some late films/actors come out of nowhere ad gain momentum (like Bardem last year).

Yep, I agree with everything you said here. Gary will most certainly get a nod and has a realistic chance at winning. Tom and Joe have gotten good buzz, but they are both long shots, with Joe's chances being slightly higher based on the subject matter of the movie and the script having been featured on the black list.

[Sith Scotti]

Originally Posted by Optimus_Prime_

For all we know this movie is going to be complete crap. I actually have low expectations for the film because I believe that Ledger would've ultimately been a major player in the third film, and without him I'm unsure of where this franchise will go. Also, I haven't seen anyone do a perfect trilogy yet (I don't count LOTR because it's basically one long movie split up into three). I have faith in Nolan as a director, but I don't have a lot of faith in his writers, some of the stuff they've delivered I don't care for too much. I'm not saying it will or won't be bad or good, but I know next to nothing about the film, and I'll need some actual footage, as opposed to Nolan's home movies...erm...the teaser, to get any sense of this film one way or another. Until I see something like that I have no opinion.

I don't understand this logic at all . He had 4 years to modify the story if even he planned to bring back the Joker , which everyone is assuming because Joker lives, he must break out of prison /asylum like the comics...

Until Nolan makes a bad movie , I am going in with the blind faith at worse it will be a very good film.

The other trilogies are not important here .

[El Payaso]

Originally Posted by lime

Batman Begins only got nomination for Wally Pfister, but TDK got 8 nominations.

How do you guys think are TDKR chances at the 2013 Oscars?

Do you believe the move can fight for a BP nomination, or just for some tech categories? And if only tech, what?

It'll get tech Oscars noms. ONLY.

Mark my words.

[Heisenberg]

Nominations for Cinematography, writing, costume design. No wins. Honestly though, after some of the results of the past 10 years, I really dont' see why anyone puts any weight in these awards anymore.