The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 7

Thread Manager · 07-20-2012, 07:45 PM

This is a continuation thread, the old thread is Here

Thread Manager · 07-20-2012, 07:45 PM

This is a continuation thread, the old thread is Here

Iceman · 07-20-2012, 07:45 PM

If it has a similar opening day to Avengers it will have a very hard time overtaking it as more of the Avengers opening day was non-midnight and therefore less frontloaded.

Danalys · 07-20-2012, 07:53 PM

yeah means it really is expected to make 15 mil less on the friday if you treat midnights as thursday. if that's true then similar should be true on saturday.

Danalys · 07-20-2012, 08:25 PM

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/openingweeks.htm

the opening weeks of both films maybe extremely close to each other if TDKR is received well. the summer bump may address the 3D bump.

El Payaso · 07-20-2012, 08:28 PM

Quote:

It's just bizarre how Ledger dies before TDK comes out and now this horrible shooting on the opening of the TDKR.

I was thinking the same. But whereas I think Ledger's death attracted people, the shooting might do the opposite.

Bruce Malone · 07-20-2012, 08:56 PM

From on the ground theater reports for at least today it seems that pretty much every showing is still being sold-out.

Danalys · 07-20-2012, 10:00 PM

deadline says

Quote:

FRIDAY 6 PM, 9TH UPDATE: No major changes to report except that The Dark Knight Rises is running less today than Marvel’s The Avengers but had more midnight business. So the two films are running neck and neck.

so a sold out DKR can't take TA's opening weekend record.

Silver Surfer · 07-20-2012, 10:03 PM

The record is safe, sleep easy.

JB-the-Hunter · 07-20-2012, 10:10 PM

The most exciting part about The Avengers possibly keeping the OW record is that it'll take a long time for another film to break it.

Silver Surfer · 07-20-2012, 10:19 PM

Variety is saying 75 mil Friday, it won't even sniff TA record.

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1118056884

Bruce Malone · 07-20-2012, 10:21 PM

The article says it will be a neck and neck haul in ticket sales. So we all knew the 3d premium charges would play a factor.

Silver Surfer · 07-20-2012, 10:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JB-the-Hunter

The most exciting part about The Avengers possibly keeping the OW record is that it'll take a long time for another film to break it.

Iron Man 3? MOS or The Wolverine may have a slight chance? Can't really think of legit contender for it except for maybe the Hobbit.

Iceman · 07-20-2012, 10:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Silver Surfer

Iron Man 3? MOS or The Wolverine may have a slight chance? Can't really think of legit contender for it except for maybe the Hobbit.

I really don't think any of those have a chance in hell haha. Avengers & DKR are on a different level in terms of opening weekend demand. The Hobbit will have a great worldwide final gross though.

Quasimod0 · 07-20-2012, 10:51 PM

Dont under estimate peter jackson LOTR films.

Silver Surfer · 07-20-2012, 10:52 PM

I hate to say it but the final Twilight movie might have the best shot at the record now.

Danalys · 07-20-2012, 11:02 PM

twilight has a rabid but small fanbase compared to both the avengers and batman.

Tony Stark · 07-20-2012, 11:05 PM

LOTR definitely because there will be 3D boost. Twilight, no because it is too front loaded. Twilight may have a shot at opening day record from potter however.

I don't discount IM3 if it's a good film. I mean because most people view IM2 as "not as good" as the first they can catch an upswing. I said for a long time that DKR was an uphill battle because of no Heath, and no Joker.

I also don't discount Thor 2 doing huge business. Chris Hemsworth may not be quite an A lister, but his stock has risen significantly and I immagine he has a pretty large female following.

MOS could be huge, but I immagine it may do IM1 numbers tops, but look for MOS2 if there are going to be records broken.

JB-the-Hunter · 07-20-2012, 11:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Silver Surfer

I hate to say it but the final Twilight movie might have the best shot at the record now.

If it's in 3D then you may be right actually

For some reason when talking about Box Office people tend to forget about Twilight, but it's a legit contender.

Danalys · 07-20-2012, 11:21 PM

only for midnights and opening day. and harry potter fans are just as nuts for that. so it becomes a wash just equalling or beating by a tiny amount. twilights first weeks and overall box office aren't even contenders.

Webfoot Hero · 07-20-2012, 11:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JB-the-Hunter

If it's in 3D then you may be right actually

For some reason when talking about Box Office people tend to forget about Twilight, but it's a legit contender.

Considering none of the Twilight movies have reach over $710 million total, I'm not sure it will beat any records but possibly biggest midnight opening and opening day.

Iceman · 07-20-2012, 11:41 PM

I don't think any original films that we currently know about will beat Avenger's record. There's no way they can build enough hype. All the superhero sequels outside of Batman which will be finished for a while after this weekend are smaller in nature and the biggest ones have all been done before (not as fresh conceptually as Avengers was). The Hobbit is not LOTR, has less hype than it should have at this stage and by its nature is likely to have a more balanced than frontloaded gross. Twilight will always have massive midnights & opening days but won't have enough on the Sundays to finish anywhere close.

Avengers already utilised the 3D boost about as much as it could so other films can match it but only a film that actually does something special technologically with the 3D like Avatar is likely to improve on that front. The OW record will of course go sooner or later but I don't think it will fall to any of the films or next sequels we currently know about.

Danalys · 07-20-2012, 11:51 PM

there need to be more theatres, or for 3D to become more popular, or just to wait for inflation, for the avengers opening weekend plus 12 million to be beat. it's just not possible otherwise.

psylockolussus · 07-21-2012, 01:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Silver Surfer

I hate to say it but the final Twilight movie might have the best shot at the record now.

LOL @ the thought of Twilight beating Avenger's opening weekend record. Its not gonna happen.

JB-the-Hunter · 07-21-2012, 01:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by psylockolussus

LOL @ the thought of Twilight beating Avenger's opening weekend record. Its not gonna happen.

"the best shot"

View Poll Results: What will be the world-wide box office take of The Avengers?
1.5 billion >	7	4.93%
1.0 billion >	31	21.83%
900 million >	30	21.13%
800 million >	46	32.39%
700 million >	20	14.08%
600 million >	1	0.70%
500 million >	6	4.23%
400 million >	0	0%
300 million >	1	0.70%
200 million >	0	0%
Voters: 142. You may not vote on this poll

07-20-2012, 07:45 PM	#1
Thread Manager SHH! Moderator Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 1	Re: The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 6 This is a continuation thread, the old thread is Here

07-20-2012, 07:45 PM	#2
Thread Manager SHH! Moderator Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 1	Re: The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 5 This is a continuation thread, the old thread is Here

07-20-2012, 07:45 PM	#3
Iceman XMN AVNGRS JL Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: Londinium, North of Gaul, circa XLIII AD Posts: 39,368	Re: The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 6 If it has a similar opening day to Avengers it will have a very hard time overtaking it as more of the Avengers opening day was non-midnight and therefore less frontloaded. __________________ 360GT: Miramax7000 CONTEST OF MARVELS II Brackets I & II Brackets III & IV Brackets V & VI Brackets VII & VIII Discussion Thread

07-20-2012, 07:53 PM	#4
Danalys Sol Invictus Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: local Posts: 12,533	Re: The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 7 yeah means it really is expected to make 15 mil less on the friday if you treat midnights as thursday. if that's true then similar should be true on saturday. __________________ time is money, but taking your time is priceless

07-20-2012, 08:25 PM	#5
Danalys Sol Invictus Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: local Posts: 12,533	Re: The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 7 http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/openingweeks.htm the opening weeks of both films maybe extremely close to each other if TDKR is received well. the summer bump may address the 3D bump. __________________ time is money, but taking your time is priceless

07-20-2012, 08:56 PM	#7
Bruce Malone Side-Kick Join Date: May 2009 Location: Stay out of my territory Posts: 3,693	Re: The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 7 From on the ground theater reports for at least today it seems that pretty much every showing is still being sold-out.

07-20-2012, 10:03 PM	#9
Silver Surfer Power Cosmic Join Date: Nov 2004 Location: T.O, Canada Posts: 459	Re: The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 7 The record is safe, sleep easy.

07-20-2012, 10:10 PM	#10
JB-the-Hunter Hunter of weaklings Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: Atlanta, GA Posts: 2,856	Re: The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 7 The most exciting part about The Avengers possibly keeping the OW record is that it'll take a long time for another film to break it. __________________ Natasha Romanoff - "Are you boys really that naive? S.H.I.E.L.D. monitors potential threats." Bruce Banner - "Captain America is on threat watch?" Natasha Romanoff - "We all are."

07-20-2012, 10:19 PM	#11
Silver Surfer Power Cosmic Join Date: Nov 2004 Location: T.O, Canada Posts: 459	Re: The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 7 Variety is saying 75 mil Friday, it won't even sniff TA record. http://www.variety.com/article/VR1118056884

07-20-2012, 10:21 PM	#12
Bruce Malone Side-Kick Join Date: May 2009 Location: Stay out of my territory Posts: 3,693	Re: The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 7 The article says it will be a neck and neck haul in ticket sales. So we all knew the 3d premium charges would play a factor.

07-20-2012, 10:51 PM	#15
Quasimod0 Bell-Ringer Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 5,332	Re: The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 7 Dont under estimate peter jackson LOTR films. __________________ Movies seen recently: , The Avengers- 10/10, Chimpanzee-6/10, MIB3- 6/10, Brave- 9/10, Amazing Spider-man- 8/10, TDKR- 8.5/10, Bourne Legacy- 7/10, Wreck-it Ralph- 9/10, Skyfall- 9/10, The Hobbit part 1- 9.5/10

07-20-2012, 10:52 PM	#16
Silver Surfer Power Cosmic Join Date: Nov 2004 Location: T.O, Canada Posts: 459	Re: The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 7 I hate to say it but the final Twilight movie might have the best shot at the record now.

07-20-2012, 11:02 PM	#17
Danalys Sol Invictus Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: local Posts: 12,533	Re: The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 7 twilight has a rabid but small fanbase compared to both the avengers and batman. __________________ time is money, but taking your time is priceless

07-20-2012, 11:05 PM	#18
Tony Stark Armored Avenger! Join Date: May 2002 Location: In a cave with a box of scraps Posts: 6,580	Re: The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 7 LOTR definitely because there will be 3D boost. Twilight, no because it is too front loaded. Twilight may have a shot at opening day record from potter however. I don't discount IM3 if it's a good film. I mean because most people view IM2 as "not as good" as the first they can catch an upswing. I said for a long time that DKR was an uphill battle because of no Heath, and no Joker. I also don't discount Thor 2 doing huge business. Chris Hemsworth may not be quite an A lister, but his stock has risen significantly and I immagine he has a pretty large female following. MOS could be huge, but I immagine it may do IM1 numbers tops, but look for MOS2 if there are going to be records broken. __________________ “Some people call me a terrorist. I consider myself a teacher. Lesson number one: Heroes....there is no such thing.” The Mandarin

07-20-2012, 11:21 PM	#20
Danalys Sol Invictus Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: local Posts: 12,533	Re: The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 7 only for midnights and opening day. and harry potter fans are just as nuts for that. so it becomes a wash just equalling or beating by a tiny amount. twilights first weeks and overall box office aren't even contenders. __________________ time is money, but taking your time is priceless

07-20-2012, 11:41 PM	#22
Iceman XMN AVNGRS JL Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: Londinium, North of Gaul, circa XLIII AD Posts: 39,368	Re: The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 7 I don't think any original films that we currently know about will beat Avenger's record. There's no way they can build enough hype. All the superhero sequels outside of Batman which will be finished for a while after this weekend are smaller in nature and the biggest ones have all been done before (not as fresh conceptually as Avengers was). The Hobbit is not LOTR, has less hype than it should have at this stage and by its nature is likely to have a more balanced than frontloaded gross. Twilight will always have massive midnights & opening days but won't have enough on the Sundays to finish anywhere close. Avengers already utilised the 3D boost about as much as it could so other films can match it but only a film that actually does something special technologically with the 3D like Avatar is likely to improve on that front. The OW record will of course go sooner or later but I don't think it will fall to any of the films or next sequels we currently know about. __________________ 360GT: Miramax7000 CONTEST OF MARVELS II Brackets I & II Brackets III & IV Brackets V & VI Brackets VII & VIII Discussion Thread

07-20-2012, 11:51 PM	#23
Danalys Sol Invictus Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: local Posts: 12,533	Re: The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 7 there need to be more theatres, or for 3D to become more popular, or just to wait for inflation, for the avengers opening weekend plus 12 million to be beat. it's just not possible otherwise. __________________ time is money, but taking your time is priceless

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