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View Poll Results: How will Captain America do at the World Wide Box Office?
$100-$199 million 8 5.06%
$200-$299 million 25 15.82%
$300-$399 million 41 25.95%
$400-$499 million 46 29.11%
$500-$599 million 22 13.92%
$600-$699 million 6 3.80%
$700-$799 million 3 1.90%
$800-$899 million 0 0%
$900-$999 million 1 0.63%
1 billion + 6 3.80%
Voters: 158. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 07-25-2011, 08:47 PM   #76
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Default Re: The Official Captain America Box Office Thread! - Part 1

Cowboys and Aliens and Crazy Stupid Love are doing very well on Rotten Tomatoes right now. If those movies are really good they could hurt CA legs especially Cowboys and Aliens.

Marvel really screwed up when they let Favreau get away from Iron Man.

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Old 07-25-2011, 09:11 PM   #77
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Default Re: The Official Captain America Box Office Thread! - Part 1

Eh I don't think that Cowboys and Aliens is going to be a huge opener. 50mil at best and right now I'm predicting 40ish.

That being said I still see Cap dropping over 50%, maybe like 55 to 57%. Baring some excellent weekdays I just think that frontloading and Cowboys and Aliens will hurt it. Crazy Stupid Love will not be a factor at all, as it will be lucky to make a little over 20mil opening weekend. It looks terrible but thats never stopped people before.

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Old 07-25-2011, 09:38 PM   #78
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Default Re: The Official Captain America Box Office Thread! - Part 1

Thor had a low drop its second weekend (47%) partly because it had no real competition. Bridesmaids opened but it's a completely different demographic and The Priest opened but that was always going be (and was) a box office/critical fail.

C&A is will be a much bigger draw than The Priest ever had a chance of being, no matter how good the movie is. My hope is that Cap falls less than 55%.

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Old 07-25-2011, 09:47 PM   #79
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Default Re: The Official Captain America Box Office Thread! - Part 1

I hope Cap falls less than 55% too but sometimes the weekdays are so good with movies in this month that a 55% drop isn't that big of a deal provided the movie stablizes after that.

I'll be fine as long as it doesn't drop a The Incredible Hulk style 60%.

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Old 07-25-2011, 10:45 PM   #80
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Default Re: The Official Captain America Box Office Thread! - Part 1

Well... I'm from Argentina and I have really no idea how this movie is gonna perform down here (it's winter holidays, full of kids everywhere).
I'll speak for myself here, but I don't think foreign countries hate Captain America or the American flag. Is just the country is so important in the world, that people have different opinions about all the different governments, but I don't think that should stain the character.

I've been watching Cap, Thor and Hulk in those (now horrible) old cartoons since I was a kid (I'm 25) and for me is just an event. This whole Avengers thing, I'm the happiest adult/kid ever. I like the rich history of the characters, I dig them in another level now, I appreciate the little details, the influence. I really don't care if the American flag is all over the costume, that's how the character was created, and it had an historical reason for it. I know people that don't know that, or they just don't care at all. Is just happens to be american. Is like someone said up there, I'd watch Captain China if it had good kung fu (I liked that parallelism).
Anyway, I'm happy the movie is doing so well up there. Marvel certainly knows how to bring their characters to the big screen. I drink to that!

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Old 07-25-2011, 11:08 PM   #81
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Default Re: The Official Captain America Box Office Thread! - Part 1

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Originally Posted by I SEE SPIDEY View Post
I hope Cap falls less than 55% too but sometimes the weekdays are so good with movies in this month that a 55% drop isn't that big of a deal provided the movie stablizes after that.

I'll be fine as long as it doesn't drop a The Incredible Hulk style 60%.
WOM on Cap seems to be good. I think Thor got a B+ on (Cinemascore I think it is?) from people who saw it opening weekend, and Cap apparently got an A-. Thor had good legs, so if that polling suggests people liked it more than Thor, then it should have legs too.

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Old 07-25-2011, 11:22 PM   #82
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Default Re: The Official Captain America Box Office Thread! - Part 1

^I understand what you are saying...but Cinema Score doesn't really mean anything to me because I've seen it movies with C's have good legs and movies with A's have awful legs. It's too unrealible to me.

I do hope that Cap drops under 50% today because this movie deserves to be seen by as many people as possible. It's just good old-fashion adventureous fun and we need more of that at the movies.

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Old 07-25-2011, 11:36 PM   #83
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Default Re: Captain America worldwide boxoffice speculation

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I don't think anyone would complain if you invaded North Korea or Iran.
Yeah? How about North Koreans or Iranians?

I guess the Blitz was a reaaally long time ago, so it's easy to forget that having someone drop a ****ing bomb on your house isn't all puppies and rainbows.

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Old 07-25-2011, 11:49 PM   #84
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Default Re: The Official Captain America Box Office Thread! - Part 1

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^I understand what you are saying...but Cinema Score doesn't really mean anything to me because I've seen it movies with C's have good legs and movies with A's have awful legs. It's too unrealible to me.

I do hope that Cap drops under 50% today because this movie deserves to be seen by as many people as possible. It's just good old-fashion adventureous fun and we need more of that at the movies.
I agree, it is not a true indicator of what Cap's legs will be, but it's really the only evidence we have of people's reactions to this film at this point, which is why I cite it. Plus, most people I know who saw it liked it, comic and non-comic fans alike, though I also hate the "my friends" test.

Let's just say my gut feeling is good legs, LOL!

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Old 07-25-2011, 11:52 PM   #85
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Default Re: The Official Captain America Box Office Thread! - Part 1

If the movie is good, people recommend it, and most do take that into account and go see it eventually. Both Thor and Green Lantern are good examples of that (in both extremes).
PS: Haven't seen GL yet

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Old 07-26-2011, 12:17 AM   #86
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Default Re: The Official Captain America Box Office Thread! - Part 1

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I agree, it is not a true indicator of what Cap's legs will be, but it's really the only evidence we have of people's reactions to this film at this point, which is why I cite it. Plus, most people I know who saw it liked it, comic and non-comic fans alike, though I also hate the "my friends" test.

Let's just say my gut feeling is good legs, LOL!
My gut feeling is that it's legs won't be any worse than Thor's. Obviously thats just my gut feeling. I just honestly don't know how people will feel about it overall. I don't see an under 50% drop though because thats just a rare feat with a big opening summer film because the movies have such huge weekdays to make up for what happens on the weekends.

I'm just trying to warn fans of the film that a 50+% drop isn't the end of the world in the summer movie season. District 9 dropped 51% in it's second weekend and still manged to have a 3.0 multiplier. X-Men dropped 57% and had a 2.9 multipler. It will be doing good if it has strong weekdays and drops 50 to 55% actually. Not groundbreaking numbers but decent ones...I'm crossing my fingers for under 50% though.

Ofcourse it won't do as well as Thor overseas because Thor had the advantage of sorta being a swords and sandles film and the international audiences really enjoy those films. I still won't rule out 200mil for Cap until I have to.

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Old 07-26-2011, 12:20 AM   #87
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Default Re: The Official Captain America Box Office Thread! - Part 1

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Originally Posted by I SEE SPIDEY View Post
My gut feeling is that it's legs won't be any worse than Thor's. Obviously thats just my gut feeling. I just honestly don't know how people will feel about it overall. I don't see an under 50% drop though because thats just a rare feat with a big opening summer film because the movies have such huge weekdays to make up for what happens on the weekends.

I'm just trying to warn fans of the film that a 50+% drop isn't the end of the world in the summer movie season. District 9 dropped 51% in it's second weekend and still manged to have a 3.0 multiplier. X-Men dropped 57% and had a 2.9 multipler. It will be doing good if it has strong weekdays and drops 50 to 55% actually. Not groundbreaking numbers but decent ones...I'm crossing my fingers for under 50% though.

Ofcourse it won't do as well as Thor overseas because Thor had the advantage of sorta being a swords and sandles film and the international audiences really enjoy those films. I still won't rule out 200mil for Cap until I have to.
I'm hoping for an under 50% drop as well, but like you said...not the end of the world if Cap doesn't achieve that. I don't expect Cap to make Thor money in foreign markets, but Cap I expect to still do well overall. Everyone concerned about sequel or no sequel, I think a sequel is fairly safe. Time will tell, of course...but I don't see a sequel not happening, which is ultimately why I think we all care so much about Cap's BO.

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Old 07-26-2011, 12:22 AM   #88
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Default Re: The Official Captain America Box Office Thread! - Part 1

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Marvel really screwed up when they let Favreau get away from Iron Man.
I will feel bad for all of three minutes when I buy tickets to Cap on Friday but walk in to view Cowboys & Aliens. Sorry, Favs.

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Old 07-26-2011, 12:24 AM   #89
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Default Re: The Official Captain America Box Office Thread! - Part 1

People will get over Favs leaving IM3. Personally, Shane Black seems to be doing something interesting with IM3, so I say give him a chance. Plus, IM2 was a quality drop. We can blame Marvel all we want, but Favs wasn't innocent on that, either. IM1 was awesome. IM2 was good, not great. Let's be happy with what he did, and let him go.

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Old 07-26-2011, 12:30 AM   #90
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Default Re: The Official Captain America Box Office Thread! - Part 1

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I'm hoping for an under 50% drop as well, but like you said...not the end of the world if Cap doesn't achieve that. I don't expect Cap to make Thor money in foreign markets, but Cap I expect to still do well overall. Everyone concerned about sequel or no sequel, I think a sequel is fairly safe. Time will tell, of course...but I don't see a sequel not happening, which is ultimately why I think we all care so much about Cap's BO.
I expect it to do well enough for a sequel. It's not like it will have the venomous word of mouth GL had. I've seen no proof of that thus far.

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Old 07-26-2011, 02:05 AM   #91
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Default Re: The Official Captain America Box Office Thread! - Part 1

I honestly expect Cowboys and Aliens to bomb every time in theaters I see the trailer people laugh at the end when the voice over guy says Cowboys and Aliens. I think its going to be this years Scott Pilgrim.

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Old 07-26-2011, 02:12 AM   #92
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Default Re: The Official Captain America Box Office Thread! - Part 1

I'd love for Cap to do a better second weekend than Thor, I'm not expecting it though. Thor had a leg up in weekend 2 because nothing big opened that weekend as others have pointed out. Cowboys and Aliens is bigger than anything Thor faced in weekend 2.

These aren't terrible as say Green Lantern, but I'm honestly disappointed with these numbers. I feel the overall campaign for Cap was weak and there just needed to be more of everything. I think we needed more of that patriotic push as well as the early positive reviews. I'm more disappointed because for one thing the movie really is that good and it turned out so well I feel like more people should know about it. I think this is Marvel's best movie since Iron Man and it actually offers a more unique experience.

And I think part of the problem was Cap sharing a summer with Thor. Thor got the ideal placement in early May and it worked well with that. But it just felt like with the big push for Thor we weren't getting enough about Captain America. The first time we got to see anything was the Super Bowl and I believe that was too late to get started. We should've had some sort of trailer by last year. But just like with 2008, Iron Man got the lion's share of everything and Hulk almost felt like an afterthought. The marketing of Cap to me almost did come off like an afterthought.

I was personally never a fan of The First Avenger marketing. It was an obligatory title made to sell the movie internationally that it truly didn't need. Giving it a FIRST AVENGER subtitle was sort of silly like THE LAST STAND and X-MEN UNITED.

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Old 07-26-2011, 04:15 AM   #93
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Default Re: The Official Captain America Box Office Thread! - Part 1

I think that you are being way too harsh on these numbers. Are the great numbers? Hell, no but it did as well as Thor did and even sold more tickets. If it has legs it will be fine, if it doesn't well, it won't be. Thats just the way the boxoffice works. These numbers aren't disappointing because they are in line with what all of the other comicbook films opened with. I do agree that it was a mistake for Marvel to hold back the good reviews until Wednesday as they probably could have built up a little more hype if they released them on Monday. So many comicbook movies were released this summer that it was almost impossible for Captain America to look special enough to open to 75 to 80mil, no matter how much I hoped it would.

As for the weekend drop, it won't be as important for it to have as good a drop as Thor did in it's second weekend because it's got Summer weekdays on it's side. X-Men had a worse 2nd weekend drop than Thor and still had a better multiplier.

And comparing this to the Iron Man and TIH thing makes no since right now because Iron Man opened near 100mil and The Incredible Hulk opened with 55mil. Iron Man closed with 318mil and TIH closed with 135mil.

Thor opened with 65.7mil and Captain America opened with 65.1mil and actually sold more tickets than Thor so who's marketing sucked exactly? Thor is going to end with like 180-181mil and Captain America shouldn't have legs like GL so 150mil at least total should be in order. We will have to wait to see how Cap does overall but it's already shown that it's not going to pull a TIH and make less than half of the movie that came before it. It's a given that it won't do as well overseas and part of that is Thor has a more appealing primise to overseas audiences, Thor's 3D ticket sales are probably going to be better and Harry Potter will be stealing viewers away.

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Old 07-26-2011, 05:04 AM   #94
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Default Re: Captain America worldwide boxoffice speculation

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Yeah? How about North Koreans or Iranians?

I guess the Blitz was a reaaally long time ago, so it's easy to forget that having someone drop a ****ing bomb on your house isn't all puppies and rainbows.
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Old 07-26-2011, 05:11 AM   #95
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Default Re: The Official Captain America Box Office Thread! - Part 1

I SEE SPIDEY, we really have no idea about good legs until the following two weekends, so to say so now is premature.

I SEE SPIDEY, Cap is also a much bigger and more popular character than Thor so I feel his numbers should've been a lot bigger and his campaign also should've reflected that. Cap was basically sort of lost in the big shuffle of this summer and couldn't really compare or match to big event releases like Harry Potter, Transformers, etc.

Also the only reason Cap made in the $60 million range was because of the 3D. Thor and X-Men first class attendance was about equal, but X-Men wasn't in 3D.

Even the first Hulk movie opened to $63 million in 2003 which is a lot more money 8 years ago than it is now.

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Old 07-26-2011, 05:30 AM   #96
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Default Re: The Official Captain America Box Office Thread! - Part 1

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I SEE SPIDEY, we really have no idea about good legs until the following two weekends, so to say so now is premature.

I SEE SPIDEY, Cap is also a much bigger and more popular character than Cap so I feel his numbers should've been a lot bigger and his campaign also should've reflected that. Cap was basically sort of lost in the big shuffle of this summer and couldn't really compare or match to big event releases like Harry Potter, Transformers, etc.

Also the only reason Cap made in the $60 million range was because of the 3D. Thor and X-Men first class attendance was about equal, but X-Men wasn't in 3D.

Even the first Hulk movie opened to $63 million in 2003 which is a lot more money 8 years ago than it is now.
Explain this. How can he be bigger than himself?

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Old 07-26-2011, 05:38 AM   #97
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Default Re: The Official Captain America Box Office Thread! - Part 1

I meant Thor. Call it a Freudian slip.

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Old 07-26-2011, 05:49 AM   #98
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Default Re: The Official Captain America Box Office Thread! - Part 1

I never said what the legs would be but it's obvious that this movie's word of mouth isn't as bad as GL, yes it's that much is already obvious.

The first Hulk movie was the first Hulk movie in 2003 after the release of the hugely popular Spider-Man and the hit X2 so ofcourse it sold far more tickets. If it weren't for comicbook movie overload I do believe that Cap would have did at least 75mil opening weekend but unfortunately Cap wasn't in the same postion as Hulk.

It's ridiculous to say that Cap should have been competing with Transformers and Potter money, thats too high a standard for any film. These are the numbers you get when you release 4 simular movies in one summer. Again, not great numbers but decent for all the stuff it had going against it.

Attendence wise Cap sold more tickets than both First Class and Thor, not gobs more but it did. Thats just a fact. I knew this comicbook movie overload would hurt all of the films and it did. And those blasted 3D ticket sales. By the time Cap came out he no longer looked special. Also this summer as a whole has been disappointing on the domestic front so Cap's opening weekend numbers were to be expected. Hell, I would've liked Star Trek or Fast Five numbers but it was obvious that that wasn't going to happen as the week wore on. I hoped for it ofcourse but I didn't even really believe that it was going to happen.

It's too early for you to proclaim this movie a disappointment just like it's too early for anyone to claim it as a success.

I just don't know why you are picking on this movie's boxoffice when all of the comicbook movies haven't lived up to their extreme hype. No matter what the fanboys say X-Men: First Class's domestic numbers are disappointing, Thor's domestic numbers are decent but are nothing special because they are equivalent to a 150 to 160mil grosser, Green Lantern is a bomb and if Cap doesn't have really super legs it's numbers are probably not going to be anything special either.

As long as it does enough for a sequel I'm A-Okay with where it ends.

Anyways, I understand that you are upset and I don't think that Marvel/Paramount handled things perfectly (the holding out on reviews thing was just plain stupid) but I think that the market conditions hurt Cap far more than anything Paramount did.

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Old 07-26-2011, 08:56 AM   #99
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Default Re: The Official Captain America Box Office Thread! - Part 1

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I SEE SPIDEY, we really have no idea about good legs until the following two weekends, so to say so now is premature.

I SEE SPIDEY, Cap is also a much bigger and more popular character than Thor so I feel his numbers should've been a lot bigger and his campaign also should've reflected that. Cap was basically sort of lost in the big shuffle of this summer and couldn't really compare or match to big event releases like Harry Potter, Transformers, etc.

Also the only reason Cap made in the $60 million range was because of the 3D. Thor and X-Men first class attendance was about equal, but X-Men wasn't in 3D.

Even the first Hulk movie opened to $63 million in 2003 which is a lot more money 8 years ago than it is now.
Cap sold more tickets than Thor or X:FC. Cap had a bit of a 3D boost, but 60% of Thor's BO came from 3D and it had IMAX, Cap had no IMAX and had only 40% of its ticket sales from 3D.

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Old 07-26-2011, 09:09 AM   #100
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Default Re: The Official Captain America Box Office Thread! - Part 1

What time do the Monday numbers come out usually?

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