2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 2

[Bruce Malone]

Is anyone surprised at how well the avengers is tracking for a film that doesn't have its villain being prominently marketed?

Usually for a block buster cb film the villain is used in a big role in drumming up hype for the movie.

[cherokeesam]

Originally Posted by Bruce Malone

Is anyone surprised at how well the avengers is tracking for a film that doesn't have its villain being prominently marketed?

Usually for a block buster cb film the villain is used in a big role in drumming up hype for the movie.

I dunno that that's always the case. I think villains are important to single-hero films, and the hype is usually the mano-a-mano aspect of the fight; but in the case of an ensemble, people are going to see the group, and the villain is less important. Not to underplay Hiddleston as Loki at all, dude's great; but it's all about the heroes (plural) in an ensemble movie. Solo heroes, however, like Batman, Spidey, or even Thor and Cap and Stark in their solo efforts, rely heavily on the strength and appeal of their villains.

[terry78]

Loki was already featured once, so it's not so much of a gee whiz moment. Plus you got like six other people to focus on, so you know.

[craigdbfan]

Marvel’s ‘The Avengers’ $178.4M Overseas: Continues Breaking Box Office Records

The pic is ahead of Alice In Wonderland, Pirates Of the Caribbean 4, Iron Man 2, and The Dark Knight.

Go Avengers go!

[CConn]

I still don't get why the international markets liked Alice in Wonderland so much.

Or Pirates 4.

[Marvin]

international opening #s are almost always skewed by the fact that almost no 2 films open in the same number of countries at the same time. I mean just last hear TF got a huge boost from the China and Japan/South Korea, later in it's run whilst other films open there from the jump, moreover China only releases a hand full of international films every year. When it comes to overseas I mostly just look at totals. That being said it does seem like Avengers is going to do huge business.

It's array of character types seem to please the global audience which itself is often divided when it comes to genre. For example, this film pleases the giant robot mech group along with the military group, the monster group, the spy group as well as the mythology one. I see both China and Europe finding things to like here on that base level alone. My only gripe is that the films thus far have never hit these concepts out of the park(looking at Thor 1 especially).

When I look at the film, I can't help but feel that this is the scale that should have been presented in each of the character films. With a few minor changes, this should/could have been the Thor film, Iron man could have finally fought against something that wasn't more iron men, A Cap film and so on. I personally find almost every that came before ruthlessly small and I hope Marvel only grows in scope form here.

[rayc1971]

178 million overseas already! there were predictions of 600 mill ww for the avengers.this movie will make a billion ww.according to mojo its tracking at 600 overseas alone i say the domestic take will be between 350 and 400 mill.i still see a 170 plus opening weekend domestic.

[dark_b]

lets see the first week drops. then lets talk about 1 billion

[Iceman]

Originally Posted by CConn

I still don't get why the international markets liked Alice in Wonderland so much.

Or Pirates 4.

1st post Avatar 3D. I'd love to see how much it would make today with 3D's current reputation.

Franchise sequel. Overseas audiences are late to jump on bandwagons and also late to jump off.

[Iceman]

Originally Posted by dark_b

lets see the first week drops. then lets talk about 1 billion

With China, Russia & Japan to come don't expect huge drops.

[EML420]

I like the idea of studios doing openngs in other parts of the world before they go for America Brad Bird said something along the line of doing premieres smaller then getting bigger was something that studios need to do more.

[Iceman]

Originally Posted by cherokeesam

I dunno that that's always the case. I think villains are important to single-hero films, and the hype is usually the mano-a-mano aspect of the fight; but in the case of an ensemble, people are going to see the group, and the villain is less important. Not to underplay Hiddleston as Loki at all, dude's great; but it's all about the heroes (plural) in an ensemble movie. Solo heroes, however, like Batman, Spidey, or even Thor and Cap and Stark in their solo efforts, rely heavily on the strength and appeal of their villains.

Agreed. Especially in the first ensemble film which is getting to see all these guys interact for the first time. In later films the villain will be more important.

[chaseter]

Originally Posted by DACrowe

I predicted like $355 million domestic and $750 million WW for TA. Given the crazy WOM, I guess I was wrong. Glad too, because Whedon deserves the success.

I guessed that TDKR, Hobbit, and Avengers would be the three most apt to break a billion WW. Avengers obviously has that already in sight.

[CConn]

Originally Posted by Iceman

1st post Avatar 3D. I'd love to see how much it would make today with 3D's current reputation.

Franchise sequel. Overseas audiences are late to jump on bandwagons and also late to jump off.

Then the overseas audiences are a bunch of DFs.

[DoomsdayApex]

The question is can The Avengers still make a billion with Battleship and MIB3 awaiting 2-3 weeks later?

In my opinion, Battleship will cause a dent in Week Two and MIB3 will dethrone The Avengers after three weeks on top (assuming the movie is great like some are proclaiming it to be).

[Chewy]

Well considering Battleship has been open overseas for three weeks and Avengers just outgrossed it in 5 days I would say that's not really a concern.

[mclay18]

Originally Posted by DoomsdayApex

The question is can The Avengers still make a billion with Battleship and MIB3 awaiting 2-3 weeks later?

If the WOM with moviegoers is like the universal praise the film's been getting online, it'll hold well.

[kedrell]

Originally Posted by DoomsdayApex

The question is can The Avengers still make a billion with Battleship and MIB3 awaiting 2-3 weeks later?

In my opinion, Battleship will cause a dent in Week Two and MIB3 will dethrone The Avengers after three weeks on top (assuming the movie is great like some are proclaiming it to be).

That's still 3 weekends at #1......IN MAY. No film has done that in 2 decades since Lethal Weapon 3 back in 1992.

[Tony Stark]

Originally Posted by DoomsdayApex

The question is can The Avengers still make a billion with Battleship and MIB3 awaiting 2-3 weeks later?

In my opinion, Battleship will cause a dent in Week Two and MIB3 will dethrone The Avengers after three weeks on top (assuming the movie is great like some are proclaiming it to be).

Battleship will probably make 150M domestic. It might be a a bit of a bump, but by the time the U.S. critics start evaluating the film it's RT score is going to plummet to 30% or so.

Overseas Battleship plummeted 62% due to Avengers. Now since the release schedules are reversed here it could be different. Because of the overwhelming positive reviews (already certified fresh, just as the US embargo is lifted), I don't see a huge dropoff in ticket sales.

Now as I mentioned before this will not have a week 2 hold like Spider-man 1 had (the best 2nd week adjusted for inflation of any movie, and lowest drop of any superhero movie), because while Avengers doesn't have much competition, it does have better competition than Spider-man did in week 2.

However I think it can have a Thor/Iron Man 1 hold of around 50%.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I'm **** at reading and predicting international numbers but I'm sure that's mighty impressive for The Avengers.

[Iceman]

Originally Posted by Chewy

Well considering Battleship has been open overseas for three weeks and Avengers just outgrossed it in 5 days I would say that's not really a concern.

Excellent point.

Originally Posted by kedrell

That's still 3 weekends at #1......IN MAY. No film has done that in 2 decades since Lethal Weapon 3 back in 1992.

Wow, didn't know it was that long!

Originally Posted by I SEE SPIDEY

I'm **** at reading a predicting international numbers but I'm sure that's mighty impressive for The Avengers.

If all markets opened at the same time (they hardly ever do) you could read them in a similar way to US figures for film genres that historically have splits that are not too skewed to either domestic or foreign, although the ceiling is much higher. In Avengers' case add on a chunk for the big markets it hasn't opened in which would have sent it over $200m and you can start thinking about multipliers.

[kedrell]

Originally Posted by Iceman

Wow, didn't know it was that long!

Yeah. May is traditionally THE most competitive month of the year for films. And when I said no film since 1992, I meant that was a May release and held to #1 for 3 weekends in a row all within the month of May. There have been May releases that have held 3 weekends in a row since 1992 but every one of them had to spill over on the last weekend into June to do it. And to my knowledge, NO FILM released in May has ever held #1 for all 4 May weekends in a row. At least not since the advent of the summer blockbuster with Jaws back in 1975.

[DoomsdayApex]

Originally Posted by Tony Stark

Battleship will probably make 150M domestic. It might be a a bit of a bump, but by the time the U.S. critics start evaluating the film it's RT score is going to plummet to 30% or so.

Overseas Battleship plummeted 62% due to Avengers. Now since the release schedules are reversed here it could be different. Because of the overwhelming positive reviews (already certified fresh, just as the US embargo is lifted), I don't see a huge dropoff in ticket sales.

Now as I mentioned before this will not have a week 2 hold like Spider-man 1 had (the best 2nd week adjusted for inflation of any movie, and lowest drop of any superhero movie), because while Avengers doesn't have much competition, it does have better competition than Spider-man did in week 2.

However I think it can have a Thor/Iron Man 1 hold of around 50%.

Very good points.

It's still a crapshoot when arriving to Battleship. It can either make more than 150 million, or rake in less than 60 million. My only worry is that two weeks could be a long time for a non-fan (especially if they've already seen it twice). Of course, it'd impossible for Battleship to sink The Avengers, however, I wonder what percentage of ticket sales will drop for The Avengers at Week Two.

By the time MIB3 hits theaters, how much do you think The Avengers would've already grossed?

I'm going with 690-700 million.

[Iceman]

'The Gambler' just posted revised overseas weekend figures in the Avengers thread:

http://forums.superherohype.com/show...&postcount=592

$185.1m!!

[Ultimatehero]

I'm one of the 60 mil or under guys for 'Battleship.' If John Carter did good, then yeah I'd see 'Battleship' doing good. It would say alot about Kitch. But Carter only pulled in 69 mill with no competition. And Neeson is really the only name and he's hardly promoted in it at all. I have yet to see people in my theaters or outside of theaters respond to it other than 'TF rip-off.'

Not to mention AVENGERS weeks before, MIBIII week after - I see it getting strangled at the box office domestically. And the adults who may have seen it, probably DARK SHADOWS steals them away. Basically, any other time? It would have likely did good. But, where it is positioned? I just don't see how it can end well. As said, you still have general audiences conserving their money and in a month like this? It doesn't have a lot going for it, just a lot going against it.

For those seeing foreign sales, question, did Battleship even have competition there? Or did it have a couple weeks to itself? That makes a HUGE difference. Not every film in a month can do well. There's inevitably going to be one disappointment and I just can't see it being AVENGERS, DARK SHADOWS (Burton, Depp - whom general audiences love), and MEN IN BLACK III (Will Smith).