The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[R_Hythlodeus]

Originally Posted by Nokio

That is a silly argument. I'm sorry dude but I don't think that'll pan out. They could cast Pattison as Morbius and it still wouldn't matter. Besides the Avengers don't need that demo to be successful.

Somerhing tells me you didn't get the joke...

[Raiden]

Originally Posted by xeno000

To return to the topic at hand, it looks as if my prediction of $1.1 billion WW for The Avengers was less of a pipe dream than many in this thread claimed. When I posted that I wasn't just whistling in the dark. Traveling the Internet I have watched interest in this movie build to a fever pitch among an audience segment (women and young girls) that has driven surprise blockbusters like THG and Twilight to huge box office numbers. That was enough to tell me that The Avengers was poised on the verge of becoming a true phenomenon. While I knew that poor marketing, a bad trailer or, worse yet, a film that failed to deliver on its promise could deflate that ballooning interest in a heartbeat, I felt very confident of my seemingly over the top prediction.


We still have to await the final tally, but so far The Avengers is looking good to hit the billion-dollar benchmark.

I want to believe that The Avengers will gross 1 billion, and right now I think it may actually come true.

[R_Hythlodeus]

I live on the other side of the street of a multiplex cinema so keep that in mind when I say that I can judge from the amount of people I saw on opening day in the cinemas. In fact I had to go through the foyer of that cinema to go to the bus station, when I went to the IMAX. Judging from the amount of people in both cinemas and on the streets before them (the multiplex and the IMAX), I wouldn't be surprised if TA set a new record for opening day here in Austria.

[BigThor]

Originally Posted by cherokeesam

YYYYYEEEEEAAAHHHHH





....sorry, I thought you said "Bender" party....

That would be even better!

Originally Posted by Nokio

That is a silly argument. I'm sorry dude but I don't think that'll pan out. They could cast Pattison as Morbius and it still wouldn't matter. Besides the Avengers don't need that demo to be successful.

It was a joke my man.......chill

[itchyscratch]

Third biggest Thursday opening of all time in the UK behind Sith and the final HP according to this article. £2.5m.

http://wtfoosh.blogspot.com.au/2012/...-avengers.html

[Suzanne78]

Ever since the international numbers rolled out, and DOM tracking seems to increase every day, I'm fairly certain that, had Avengers not had the backing of Disney to promote the movie, and was still under Paramount's umbrella, we might not be seeing these numbers. Marvel's already got a cadre of partners to help promote it, but I honestly think Disney, and Disney's money, is responsible for raising awareness of the movie.

Also, whoever's cutting the trailer and tv spots should be given a medal. Every one of them following the first trailer have been stellar in showing enough of the movie to whet appetites. And they're extremely rewatchable.

[yads]

Admittedly it takes a bit away from scenes when we saw them in the trailer (especially one moment near the end) - but there's no doubt the uber-ness of the main trailer has been key. I'd rather it make a billion+ and lose a bit of impact in those few moments than the other way round.

[Joeyjojo72]

The marketing has been masterful for this movie. Certain key people saw the final cut, realized they were sitting on a gold mine, and this gave them the confidence to roll out early screenings and saturate the airwaves.

And I agree that the last full length trailer sealed the deal.

[Iceman]

I don't know if you guys pay any attention to HSX estimates (or how reliable they are) but they had Avengers at $157m opening weekend last night.

[Tony Stark]

I personally feel Avengers is being underestimated, because the people doing the estimations are confused over the disparity of gross between the other marvel films.

[TheGambler]

In two days of Int'l release THE AVENGERS has captured $36 mil in 25 territories. OZ - $8.2m, FRA - $4.9m, ITA - $4.6m, UK - $4.1m

- Exhibitor Relations

[psylockolussus]

I think at best, its going to get $900 million in worldwide box-office.

[Quasimod0]

I hope it gets into the top ten money earning movies of all time. Thatd just be so right.

[KangConquers]

Originally Posted by Iceman

I don't know if you guys pay any attention to HSX estimates (or how reliable they are) but they had Avengers at $157m opening weekend last night.

It's currently at $161.58 M OW, with a projected $399.18 M 4 week performance. I'm starting to think the low for this $850 M, and the high is $1 B. I'm still not seeing $1.1 or 1.2 B. Maybe for a sequel, but foreign box office on this film isn't going to be too much over $600 M.

[T"Challa]

Originally Posted by TheGambler

- Exhibitor Relations

Thats crazy for wed/thursday figures..this movies's going to make some major coin

[Raiden]

Originally Posted by KangConquers

It's currently at $161.58 M OW, with a projected $399.18 M 4 week performance. I'm starting to think the low for this $850 M, and the high is $1 B. I'm still not seeing $1.1 or 1.2 B. Maybe for a sequel, but foreign box office on this film isn't going to be too much over $600 M.

Well, the foreign audience loves 3D, and I think they also love big spectacles like The Avengers (evident by their support for movies like Transformers). Therefore, I think the foreign box office for this movie is gonna be huge. Although it will be tough to pull off, but I think 1 billion WW isn't an impossibility.

[spider-neil]

you guys are lowing balling the movie. for WEEKDAY viewing the figures are incredible. I shudder to think what the movie will make at the WEEKEND.
I took the afternoon off to see this movie (thursday) and it was sold out bar a few seats. a sell out for a 13.00 showing on a thurday...

[T"Challa]

Just realized Japan doesn't get the movie till August..whats with that? thats a pretty big market. By that time, piracy would have done some damage

[warriorking]

My Local Theatre informed me they are still hashing out the final details with Disney, so showtimes and advanced tickets will not be made available till Monday..... I look for them to go quickly with the whole weekend being sold out....I will be buying for a large group of family and friends....

[SimiOfDoom]

Originally Posted by T"Challa

Just realized Japan doesn't get the movie till August..whats with that? thats a pretty big market. By that time, piracy would have done some damage

The whole release schedule in Japan seems to be way behind. For example they just got to see the Sherlok Holmes 2 movie just recently.

[Bim]

Originally Posted by Raiden

Well, the foreign audience loves 3D, and I think they also love big spectacles like The Avengers (evident by their support for movies like Transformers). Therefore, I think the foreign box office for this movie is gonna be huge. Although it will be tough to pull off, but I think 1 billion WW isn't an impossibility.

You sure? The sold out shows yesterday (at least where i went to watch it) were the 2-D ones, not the 3-D. When given the choice, i think most pick 2-D. There's places where there's not much of a choice, so that could be what makes the 3-D numbers big worldwide. My perception though.

I personally only watched it in 3-D because the time that showing started suit me best (and it was the very first showing, i didnt want to wait another hour until the 2-D showing started lol), not because i was hellbent on seeing it in 3-D.

[bonzob2000]

No, Raiden's right, Bim. It depends on the country, but certain major overseas markets (Russia, Japan) much more into 3D than the US is currently.

[Joeyjojo72]

I would say that the Japanese people could use a diverting feel-good movie like the Avengers ASAP. I wonder why they decided to hold off.

[Vulklin]

I am going tomorrow morning, to see a 10.30 AM!! showing

Wonder how sold out it will be?

[MessiahDecoy123]

1 billion worldwide will be tough but it should make it to the 400 m domestic club.