The TDKR Box Office Thread II

[Thread Manager]

This is a continuation thread, the old thread is Here

[hatebox]

I saw one of these in Spider-Man forum which hasn't been taken down yet so, since it's a topic I find unusually interesting, I thought 'why not'?


Assuming TDKR gets a China release (which TDK didn't) there's little reason to believe that the international box office won't increase for this film. $500m from overseas shouldn't be too much of a problem, especially with the ever expanding markets in the 4 years that have passed since 2008. In fact, if it's a really well-received film, $600m could be in play.


The question, of course, is how will domestic fare. I don't subscribe to the whole 'TDK only made a lot of money because Ledger died' mind-set. That's ridiculous. What I do believe is that the Batman-Joker dynamic is wildly popular, and without that it'll be interesting to see if the almost unprecedented anticipation (and, hopefully, quality) of TDKR is enough to offset the lack of Joker and push it to $450m-$500m (or maybe more?) domestically.

So. It's a while away, but what do you think?

[DoomsdayApex]

Finish it Thread Manager...

[Doctor Jones]

Can we also take into consideration the more people who in these four years have seen TDK who didn't see it in theaters with a growing audience? Or would that even make much of a difference?

[Liam_H]

That's what happened when BB got people interested in Batman again. But its kind of hard to grow substantially when so many people already saw TDK in theaters.

[DoomsdayApex]

Originally Posted by Doctor Jones

Can we also take into consideration the more people who in these four years have seen TDK who didn't see it in theaters with a growing audience? Or would that even make much of a difference?

That's my other point as well. For instance, China banned TDK back in 2008 for obvious reasons but the movie still ended up being the most illegally downloaded film in the country's history. Four years later, you've got TDKR-themed public transportation and Christian Bale's popularity skyrocketing.

I think expansion has absolutely happened in the last four years and we'll see Batfever up-and-about in June.

[db85usa]

I don't think many people realize how big of a movie this is going to be. It is a sequel to one of the better CBM of our era by a household director with a solid cast. Tom Hardy will bring in a non Batman audience (Inception, Warrior, etc) while Anne Hathaway will intrigue a female audience. No, TDKR might not be a movie people will bring their children to see but it might bring the child out of the adults to come see. As far as box office numbers go, IMO TDKR is in the same league as LOTR, HP, POTC, Star Wars. Its a phenomena a lot of people will be a part of and the final Nolan led Batman film. Final installments are cash cows and I expect Rises to have serious box office legs.

[Iceman]

Originally Posted by db85usa

I don't think many people realize how big of a movie this is going to be. It is a sequel to one of the better CBM of our era by a household director with a solid cast. Tom Hardy will bring in a non Batman audience (Inception, Warrior, etc) while Anne Hathaway will intrigue a female audience. No, TDKR might not be a movie people will bring their children to see but it might bring the child out of the adults to come see. As far as box office numbers go, IMO TDKR is in the same league as LOTR, HP, POTC, Star Wars. Its a phenomena a lot of people will be a part of and the final Nolan led Batman film. Final installments are cash cows and I expect Rises to have serious box office legs.

I think TDKR will be bigger than all of those domestically (exc inflation) but maybe not worldwide.

[Steyin]

Originally Posted by DoomsdayApex

I think expansion has absolutely happened in the last four years and we'll see Batfever up-and-about in June.

Aggressive expansion.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Originally Posted by db85usa

I don't think many people realize how big of a movie this is going to be. It is a sequel to one of the better CBM of our era by a household director with a solid cast. Tom Hardy will bring in a non Batman audience (Inception, Warrior, etc) while Anne Hathaway will intrigue a female audience. No, TDKR might not be a movie people will bring their children to see but it might bring the child out of the adults to come see. As far as box office numbers go, IMO TDKR is in the same league as LOTR, HP, POTC, Star Wars. Its a phenomena a lot of people will be a part of and the final Nolan led Batman film. Final installments are cash cows and I expect Rises to have serious box office legs.

People are predicting a lot for this movie so I don't see how it's being under predicted.

[Ajendo]

I think TDKR will be extremely financially successful. The quality of the Nokay bat films have been consistently good, it's the epic conclusion and the premise looks set to be very interesting. The batman/joker dynamic is very rarely paralleled but I think Bane is going to introduce a calibre of villainy that will more than impress.
Coming off the extremely successful TDK, a 4 year gap and other positives going for this movie, Rises is going to be a BO juggernaut. What would also help is, the success of other superhero movies. The Avengers was brilliant and is a $billion franchise, if spider-man is at least well received also, this gives audiences confidence in the superhero franchise being a worthy product as the quality would have been upgraded (which is why fanboy warring is just so infantile.)

[DoomsdayApex]

Originally Posted by Steyin

Aggressive expansion.

I see what you did there, and I like it.

[Crimson King]

Originally Posted by Ajendo

I think TDKR will be extremely financially successful. The quality of the Nokay bat films have been consistently good, it's the epic conclusion and the premise looks set to be very interesting. The batman/joker dynamic is very rarely paralleled but I think Bane is going to introduce a calibre of villainy that will more than impress.
Coming off the extremely successful TDK, a 4 year gap and other positives going for this movie, Rises is going to be a BO juggernaut. What would also help is, the success of other superhero movies. The Avengers was brilliant and is a $billion franchise, if spider-man is at least well received also, this gives audiences confidence in the superhero franchise being a worthy product as the quality would have been upgraded (which is why fanboy warring is just so infantile.)

This. A million times. Infantile and counterproductive to their favorite genre.

[Excel]

audiences love heros, adventure, and adaptions. comic book movies give them all three. they used to prefer original heros and adventures, like star wars, john mcclane, indiana jones, ghostbusters, top gun, etc - but its all the same.

[KangConquers]

My predictions in short:

- TDKR will gross about $1.1 Billion dollars worldwide.
- 3-D will keep The Dark Knight Rises from beating The Avengers (resulting in every Batman movie after this one being shot in 3-D.)
- TDKR will fail to beat TDK domestically, but will crush TDK's relatively mild foreign gross, resulting in overall bigger numbers.

[Mysteryman]

I find myself yearning for a limited Superpower.
The ability to see the future, but only in terms of box office results.

[Mysteryman]

Originally Posted by KangConquers

My predictions in short:

- TDKR will gross about $1.1 Billion dollars worldwide.
- 3-D will keep The Dark Knight Rises from beating The Avengers (resulting in every Batman movie after this one being shot in 3-D.)
- TDKR will fail to beat TDK domestically, but will crush TDK's relatively mild foreign gross, resulting in overall bigger numbers.

I REALLY hope you are wrong about all future Batman movies being shot in
3-D.
But it wont make any difference to me .
I normally dont watch 3-D unless that is the only showing I can see that day .
The Best 3-D Presentation I ever saw was Hugo,but as a rule, I still hate
3-D.

[DoomsdayApex]

Originally Posted by Mysteryman

I REALLY hope you are wrong about all future Batman movies being shot in
3-D.
But it wont make any difference to me .
I normally dont watch 3-D unless that is the only showing I can see that day .
The Best 3-D Presentation I ever saw was Hugo,but as a rule, I still hate
3-D.

Agreed. I don't want Batman to join the 3D bandwagon simply because of more green. Films like Man of Steel, Prometheus, The Avengers and The Amazing Spiderman -- yes to 3D. However, films like The Dark Knight Rises, Django Unchained and Skyfall -- no to 3D.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Originally Posted by KangConquers

My predictions in short:

- TDKR will gross about $1.1 Billion dollars worldwide.
- 3-D will keep The Dark Knight Rises from beating The Avengers (resulting in every Batman movie after this one being shot in 3-D.)
- TDKR will fail to beat TDK domestically, but will crush TDK's relatively mild foreign gross, resulting in overall bigger numbers.

Yeah, I'm thinking Rises could do like 600+mil in the foreign markets.

[Vader815]

A major factor in the box office (in terms of gross, not opening weekend) is how successfully WB markets the film as a "must see in IMAX" feature. There's over 500 IMAX theaters around the world, so if they cleverly show if you see this film, you need to see it in that format the way Avatar did for 3D, along with a high chance of very long legs (evidenced by his past films), this could top TDK domestic and international by a decent margin.

It's totally up to WB at this point, they have the potential, they just have to harness it.

-Vader

[Parker Wayne]

Originally Posted by KangConquers

My predictions in short:

- TDKR will gross about $1.1 Billion dollars worldwide.
- 3-D will keep The Dark Knight Rises from beating The Avengers (resulting in every Batman movie after this one being shot in 3-D.)
- TDKR will fail to beat TDK domestically, but will crush TDK's relatively mild foreign gross, resulting in overall bigger numbers.

I agree with this sentiment. Rises I believe will be a hit, but I don't see it beating Avengers.

[Bruce Malone]

I know for a fact the international grosses will increase but i honestly don't see the domestic gross for TDKR diminishing much from TDK. I still see 500 million domestic as a target TDKR can reach.

I've already mentioned this before but all the demos the avengers is hitting now so will TDKR. These are the same people who will be seeing tdkr. Tdkr has the added benefit of attracting the non comic book fans which tdk brought in in droves.

It all comes down to brand awarness the higher a film tracks in public awareness the bigger it is. Avengers tracked immensely, trust me by early july i wouldn't be surprised if tdkr tracks even higher.

[04nbod]

Originally Posted by Bruce Malone

I know for a fact the international grosses will increase but i honestly don't see the domestic gross for TDKR diminishing much from TDK. I still see 500 million domestic as a target TDKR can reach.

I've already mentioned this before but all the demos the avengers is hitting now so will TDKR. These are the same people who will be seeing tdkr. Tdkr has the added benefit of attracting the non comic book fans which tdk brought in in droves.

It all comes down to brand awarness the higher a film tracks in public awareness the bigger it is. Avengers tracked immensely, trust me by early july i wouldn't be surprised if tdkr tracks even higher.

I don't see TDKR getting the very young demo. The aim is hitting 13 and over. There is also a 50/50 on whether women will show up.

[Zant]

This will be the first Bat film to make more money overseas

[Bruce Malone]

Originally Posted by 04nbod

I don't see TDKR getting the very young demo. The aim is hitting 13 and over. There is also a 50/50 on whether women will show up.

TDKR will get a higher women demo than the avengers imo. Women put off about not knowing any of the comic characters in the avengers will still likely go to TDKR. TDK tracked very high among women.

You're right about the movie not aiming itself at the under 13 crowd (thankfully) that doesn't change that fact that the little ones still love batman. TDK was pretty mature and it did fine. What ever it loses in the very young demo it gains among women and other groups that don't tend to see comic films.

I've been trying to tell people here that the avengers success should not be seen as a threat to TDKR but as a sign it itself will do very well.