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View Poll Results: What will be the world-wide box office take of The Avengers?
1.5 billion > 7 4.93%
1.0 billion > 31 21.83%
900 million > 30 21.13%
800 million > 46 32.39%
700 million > 20 14.08%
600 million > 1 0.70%
500 million > 6 4.23%
400 million > 0 0%
300 million > 1 0.70%
200 million > 0 0%
Voters: 142. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 05-29-2012, 01:36 PM   #1
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Default Re: The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

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Old 05-29-2012, 01:36 PM   #2
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Old 05-29-2012, 01:36 PM   #3
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Default Re: The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

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Originally Posted by Stark Bauer View Post
Fantastic Four is going to be another origin movie.
Is it confirmed that Fox will really reboot FF? I thought the news was just Fox's way of trying to convince Disney to pay them millions to get back the movie rights. It's been pretty long since FF2 that I'm surprised the rights are still with Fox.

Btw, I think it is pretty surreal how we're discussing $600 million domestic now like it's a real possibility. Only a few movies ever reached this milestone, and now Avengers have it within their reach, with less than $100 million to go. This movie really deserves everything good that goes its way.

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Old 05-29-2012, 01:58 PM   #4
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Default Re: The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 6

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Originally Posted by MessiahDecoy123 View Post
I'm sure plenty of 8 year olds haven't even seen Spider-man (2002).

Or at least don't remember it much.
Because Spiderman only existed in a movie theater?

By that logic, the only people who remember Star Wars are the people who saw it in 1977.

Kids have had the Spiderman DVDs forever, they know all of the movies. My friend's son can quote the first Spiderman movie better than I can, and I saw that movie in the theater before he was born.

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Old 05-29-2012, 02:26 PM   #5
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Default Re: The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 6

I don't think he meant that at all. Just generally seeing as the first movie came out 10 years ago, Then again I guess the first SM and SM2 are very much like the first two toy story movies, kids will want to watch it regardless. Still there will be kids who see this as their first live action live-action spider-man film.

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Old 05-29-2012, 02:28 PM   #6
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Default Re: The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

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Is it confirmed that Fox will really reboot FF?
Well they have a director, the guy who did Chronicle. If it looks like Chronicle, I will be jazzed.

On topic - I knew from the international response and had no doubt in my mind Avengers would make at least 550. To make over 600 is another story. If it reaches that milestone, I will be floored and will go see it again in celebration.

Here is evidence I predicted 500-550 million for Avengers my comment is on page 3 http://www.comingsoon.net/news/weeke...#commentLstTop

LMBO @ WeekendWarrior predicting only 340 million TOTAL for TA.

i give him credit for his MIB3 opening number only 2 million shy of the actual.

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Old 05-29-2012, 02:41 PM   #7
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Default Re: The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 6

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Because Spiderman only existed in a movie theater?

By that logic, the only people who remember Star Wars are the people who saw it in 1977.

Kids have had the Spiderman DVDs forever, they know all of the movies. My friend's son can quote the first Spiderman movie better than I can, and I saw that movie in the theater before he was born.
You are making me feel ancient.

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Old 05-29-2012, 03:07 PM   #8
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Default Re: The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 6

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My friend's son can quote the first Spiderman movie better than I can, and I saw that movie in the theater before he was born.
The only good line in the movie was Norman Osborne saying "Hi Aunt May. I brought you a fruit cake."

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Old 05-29-2012, 03:07 PM   #9
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Default Re: The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 6

Projections for the week (revised with actuals):

Tuesday = $2.80M (cume $527.56M)
Wednesday = $2.55M (cume $530.11M)
Thursday = $2.30M (cume $532.41M)
Friday = $6.45M (cume $538.86M)
Saturday = $10.50M (cume $549.56M)
Sunday = $6.20M (cume $555.56M)

5th Weekend approx cume $22M (-40% from previous weekend).

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Old 05-29-2012, 03:35 PM   #10
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Default Re: The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 6

Update: Actuals released!

Friday May 25, 2012 $9,664,323
Saturday May 26, 2012 $14,066,384
Sunday May 27, 2012 $12,956,164
Monday May 28, 2012 $10,535,543

Weekend Total = $47,222,414
Domestic Cume = $523,907,202

About $340K increase in the actuals, pretty good!

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Old 05-29-2012, 03:41 PM   #11
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Default Re: The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 6

Actuals went up to 47.2! Absolutely incredible!

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Old 05-29-2012, 04:27 PM   #12
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Default Re: The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 6

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jordanstine View Post
Projections for the week (revised with actuals):

Tuesday = $2.80M (cume $527.56M)
Wednesday = $2.55M (cume $530.11M)
Thursday = $2.30M (cume $532.41M)
Friday = $6.45M (cume $538.86M)
Saturday = $10.50M (cume $549.56M)
Sunday = $6.20M (cume $555.56M)

5th Weekend approx cume $22M (-40% from previous weekend).
-
I think Avengers should make 18-20 million this weekend

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Old 05-29-2012, 05:06 PM   #13
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Default Re: The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 6

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Originally Posted by Superhero 101 View Post
-
I think Avengers should make 18-20 million this weekend
Yeah, I think you're right.

Re-doing new calculations, I see it at $19.8 million which is around a 46% drop.

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Old 05-29-2012, 05:36 PM   #14
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Default Re: The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 6

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Yeah, I think you're right.

Re-doing new calculations, I see it at $19.8 million which is around a 46% drop.
It should surpass both TDK and HP8 this week, right?

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Old 05-29-2012, 05:39 PM   #15
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Default Re: The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 6

$19 million is too harsh a drop; I can see $22 million.

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Old 05-29-2012, 05:56 PM   #16
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Default Re: The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 6

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Yeah, I think you're right.

Re-doing new calculations, I see it at $19.8 million which is around a 46% drop.
No way, it's going to be a -35% to -37% drop.

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Old 05-29-2012, 06:14 PM   #17
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Default Re: The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 6

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No way, it's going to be a -35% to -37% drop.
My first calculation was based on a 40% drop.

Second calculation was off 46%.

It varies on whomever I discuss this with, but the general sense is that there is a much steeper drop on the weekend following Memorial Day weekend.

We'll get a better projection once Tuesday numbers come in.

But yes, definitely should surpass TDK by Friday latest.

Will it surpass HP: DH2 by Sunday? Yes, if it's below a 40% drop, otherwise, it will do it on a Tuesday.

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Old 05-29-2012, 06:34 PM   #18
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Default Re: The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

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Well they have a director, the guy who did Chronicle.
They ALLEGEDLY have him. Fox has done nothing but blow smoke up our asses with the F4 "production".

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Old 05-29-2012, 07:06 PM   #19
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Default Re: The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 6

Trank signed on to do Shadow of the Colossus.

Also, Trank had no idea he was even considered for F4.

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Old 05-29-2012, 07:08 PM   #20
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Default Re: The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 6

Based on its pace vs TDK, i predict the week from tue to sunday will look like this:
Tue $3,042,165.45
Wed$2,248,175.77
Thu $2,280,106.20
Fri $6,147,320.48
Sat $9,466,478.18
Sun $6,205,448.56

Total Tue through sunday- $29,389,694.65
Again the pace vs TDK is remarkably consistant

Every sunday TA has done about 130% of what TDK did on the corresponding sunday.

Monday(not counting this monday because that was at like 269%) has been the most fluctuating, mostly at 75% but had the holiday and a 90% day the week before.

Tuesdays have been rock solid around 86%,

Wed has been steady at 75%

thursday has mostly been 75% with a 93% last week probably due to the holiday week

Friday is returning about 125 %

And saturdays have seen 140%. ill post the dailys if you want, but this is tracking awfully close to those numbers.

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Old 05-29-2012, 07:31 PM   #21
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Default Re: The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 6

MIB3 didn't even break $70 million for the holiday weekend.

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Old 05-29-2012, 07:58 PM   #22
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Default Re: The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 6

So will Avengers break $550 M by next Monday?

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Old 05-29-2012, 08:35 PM   #23
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Default Re: The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 6

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So will Avengers break $550 M by next Monday?
Its at 523 now, so yes it will. Or at least it ought to....

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Old 05-29-2012, 08:46 PM   #24
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Default Re: The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 6

Avatar didnt hit 600 million until week 7, but unless there is a spike when school gets out the numbers suggest a downward spiral for TA that will be more abrupt. it may still beat that record too, its a little ahead of pace due to the holiday take, however Avatar had such a slow fade it was still doing over 30 million a week after two months, TA should be just under that by week 6.......

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Old 05-29-2012, 08:48 PM   #25
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Default Re: The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 6

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MIB3 didn't even break $70 million for the holiday weekend.
Good point. MIB3's actuals went down while Avengers went up.

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