The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 6

[Doctor Jones]

So does Avengers still have a shot at $600 mill?

[Raiden]

Originally Posted by Doctor Jones

So does Avengers still have a shot at $600 mill?

They are less than $100 million away, so I say yes.

[Tony Stark]

600 mil is pretty much in the bag at this point. It will be in the theaters at least through August.

[Flemm]

Originally Posted by Tony Stark

600 mil is pretty much in the bag at this point. It will be in the theaters at least through August.

To my admittedly inexpert eye, it certainly looks like a lock at this point. There's still a lot of excitement and buzz surrounding this movie, I can't see it fizzling out quickly enough to miss 600 million.

[The Ironstar]

It's so funny y should say that:

'Avengers' is one for the record books

http://www.usatoday.com/life/movies/...ory/55272816/1

"I'm not sure I've seen people talk about a movie the way they did like this," he says. "It was an old-fashioned cinema experience: popcorn, larger than life, fun. This may be the greatest word-of-mouth movie ever."

[TheVileOne]

MIB3 might've been number one, but Avengers had a better Memorial Day weekend than MIB3. I told you all Memorial Day was going to give this movie a boost. I mean some people doubted Iron Man could make over $300 million and it did. It got like a 3.0 multiplier. I think Avengers is going to do about the same.

$600 million is not only possible, it is essential. That is the whole idea.

[YJ1]

Originally Posted by The Ironstar

It's so funny y should say that:

'Avengers' is one for the record books

http://www.usatoday.com/life/movies/...ory/55272816/1

Last week, the trade website Thewrap.com called the movie "the blockbuster that ate Hollywood."

"In the past, the superheroes' moneymaking powers would have been good news for other summertime movies, like Dark Shadows, The Dictator and Battleship," the column said of films that challenged and fell to Avengers. "Instead, those movies have struggled to stay afloat."

But Avengers executive producer Jon Favreau, who first referenced the film in his 2008 hit Iron Man, says the film's legacy will have been to raise the bar.

"It sets a new level for what people can expect from franchises," Favreau says. "A lot of work went into making this pay off, and there was a lot of buildup. But we still had to stick the landing. I think this shows what the payoff can be when you put the time in to do it right."

Avengers does have the best word of mouth I've ever seen coupled with the fact that there really is a lot of crap out at the cinema. How can any sane person not answer Avengers to a friend that asks... "should I see Battleship or Avengers?"

[The Ironstar]

Originally Posted by YJ1

Avengers does have the best word of mouth I've ever seen coupled with the fact that there really is a lot of crap out at the cinema. How can any sane person not answer Avengers to a friend that asks... "should I see Battleship or Avengers?"

Ha Ha,it's so funny THAT y mention 'Battleship':

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/uloop/...b_1547044.html

Movie execs worldwide seem to think that boobs and explosions are enough to break worldwide box-office records. And to an extent, yes, that can be relied on to pay the bills. But the biggest mistake they made was thinking that this was the sole reason for Hasbro's other toy-based hits -- Michael Bay's record-breaking Transformers trilogy and 2009's G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra.

[chiefchirpa]

What are the competitions this week?

[Superhero 101]

Snow White And The Huntsman mainly Next Week it's Prometheus and Madagascar 3.

[xeno000]

Originally Posted by YJ1

Avengers does have the best word of mouth I've ever seen coupled with the fact that there really is a lot of crap out at the cinema. How can any sane person not answer Avengers to a friend that asks... "should I see Battleship or Avengers?"

Virtually everyone who has seen The Avengers enjoyed it, which is very rare. Of course there are complaints and haters, as with any film, but TA has met with nearly unanimous praise from the general audience.


The part of the article that caught my attention were the anonymously sourced claims that execs at Sony and WB are afraid that The Avengers has earned so much that their own films will be overshadowed. I don't usually put much stock in anonymous sources, but this is funny if true. It makes this seem like a competition between the studios, but for what? Buzz? Bragging rights?

[MessiahDecoy123]

Originally Posted by danoyse

Because Spiderman only existed in a movie theater?

By that logic, the only people who remember Star Wars are the people who saw it in 1977.

Kids have had the Spiderman DVDs forever, they know all of the movies. My friend's son can quote the first Spiderman movie better than I can, and I saw that movie in the theater before he was born.

Not every kid owns or rents dvds from 10 years ago.

[LauraT]

The part of the article that caught my attention were the anonymously sourced claims that execs at Sony and WB are afraid that The Avengers has earned so much that their own films will be overshadowed. I don't usually put much stock in anonymous sources, but this is funny if true. It makes this seem like a competition between the studios, but for what? Buzz? Bragging rights?

Everything, Box office mainly but also buzz and bragging rights about having the highest grossing movie of the year etc. They’re supposedly worried that Avengers is sucking up all the interest in CBMs meaning the others will get overlooked and underperform. I think TDKR will be a mega hit but it’s possible poor Spidey will get squeezed out between the two

[ironmaidenrules]

Originally Posted by MessiahDecoy123

Not every kid owns or rents dvds from 10 years ago.

When did finding Nemo come out? Try the lion king, try star wars, try even the prequel trilogy.

[Pond]

Originally Posted by The Ironstar

It's so funny y should say that:

'Avengers' is one for the record books

http://www.usatoday.com/life/movies/...ory/55272816/1

You know... The greatest tragedy of Firefly isnt just that it was cancelled; it is that after that it was cancelled, most people who have watched it, who are not sci fi or western fans, whedon fans, or even tv series fans, LOVED IT. You get the impression that handled inteligently, it could have been a smash hit. Even my grandmother likes Serenity, and she hates movies from beyond 1970. Same with other Whedon stuff. When a lot of his work gets the change to be seen, its actually quite, quite popular. Dr. Horible was the same, and his Astonishing X-Men run had people droling.

Some hate it, of course, but it is surprising to me how many people from what you could call the mainstream are on the same wavelenght with him, mostly, curiously, not genre fans.

And now this.

For all the "he is a cult creator" vibe that seems to emanate from him, the guy actually has far more mainstream acceptance posibilities for much of his work (not all, mind you) than he is given credit for.

Makes me think on the whys and perhapses of the true "niche" nature of those who are put on that wagon... Are they all really just understood or liked by few or are we talking of not giving oportunities?

Is he really the geek director for geeks when so many people who dont know even what a geek is tend to get in love with his work the minute they give it a chance?

Whedon is one case (not the only one) where our need to label a creator is not doing him or us any favours.

Sorry for the rant. Just popped into my mind.

[KangConquers]

I don't think Warner Bros has to worry about too much. The Dark Knight Rises might not beat Avengers, but I have no doubt it will enter the top 10 of all time, Globally.

Amazing Spider-Man, on the other hand, might not break the top 50 of all time.

[sgaana]

Originally Posted by The Ironstar

Ha Ha,it's so funny THAT y mention 'Battleship':

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/uloop/...b_1547044.html

Question:

"However, despite doing great in overseas markets (having already made $200 million overseas), Battleship bombed its opening weekend here in the U.S., bringing in only $25 million."

For those here who are more knowledgable about box-office analysis... is Battleship's $200+ million overseas really "doing great"? For having been out overseas for over a month prior to opening in the U.S.?

Granted, it's "great" compared to what the movie has done in the U.S. so far. But objectively speaking, it doesn't seem that great; it seems kind of paltry for a month's worth of overseas receipts. Am I wrong?

[kedrell]

I'm not convinced at all that the next Batman film is guaranteed to surpass it's predecessor. W/O the Joker I just don't see how it will perform better. At the same time, I don't get the sense that ASM will perform much at all outside of the already established Spider-man box office range. I think a lot of Raimi lovers over estimate just how beloved their original trilogy currently is and are purposefully low-balling ASM.

I personally hope if flops not because I care much for the Raimi films(the best they ever got for me was OK with SM2) but because I think it's a necessary step if Sony ever will be willing to sell Spidey back to Marvel(who make stupendously better movies, IMO).

And I don't see any film for several years touching TA's gross, DOM or WW.

[kedrell]

Originally Posted by sgaana

Question:

"However, despite doing great in overseas markets (having already made $200 million overseas), Battleship bombed its opening weekend here in the U.S., bringing in only $25 million."

For those here who are more knowledgable about box-office analysis... is Battleship's $200+ million overseas really "doing great"? For having been out overseas for over a month prior to opening in the U.S.?

Granted, it's "great" compared to what the movie has done in the U.S. so far. But objectively speaking, it doesn't seem that great; it seems kind of paltry for a month's worth of overseas receipts. Am I wrong?

You're not wrong but they got to try and find their silver lining somewhere.

[Doctor Jones]

But TDKR has a benefit of being the last big blockbuster of the summer. I mean what comes after it? Expendables 2 won't do much to it. It really has the rest of the summer without any threatening competition. Avengers had the beginning and TDKR has the end. And depending on how good TDKR, is it's possible it can do alot. As much as TDK remains to be seen but I dont' think it will make as much as Avengers.

[kedrell]

Sure it'll do alot. You can do alot and still come in under TDK. And Expendables 2 is greater competition than anything TA faced in it's first 3 weeks(it's probably about the same level as MIB3). But I think The Bourne Legacy is the one that'll knock it out of #1 first, giving TDKR 2 weeks at #1.

[Donut]

Originally Posted by kedrell

But I think The Bourne Legacy is the one that'll knock it out of #1 first, giving TDKR 2 weeks at #1.

Before it comes out on DVD / Blu-Ray I would expect a 3D & IMAX re release. I would say in August after TDKR hype dies down. Then the die hards can rush out to see The Avengers again before it leaves theaters for good. It can get another boost with a re release before it leaves theaters. Most of these movies will not get any type of repeat viewings The Avengers is currently getting

[KangConquers]

Originally Posted by kedrell

I'm not convinced at all that the next Batman film is guaranteed to surpass it's predecessor. W/O the Joker I just don't see how it will perform better. At the same time, I don't get the sense that ASM will perform much at all outside of the already established Spider-man box office range. I think a lot of Raimi lovers over estimate just how beloved their original trilogy currently is and are purposefully low-balling ASM.

I personally hope if flops not because I care much for the Raimi films(the best they ever got for me was OK with SM2) but because I think it's a necessary step if Sony ever will be willing to sell Spidey back to Marvel(who make stupendously better movies, IMO).

And I don't see any film for several years touching TA's gross, DOM or WW.

TDKR will not outperform it's predecessor domestically. However, it will blow away TDK in foreign receipts. I personally see The Dark Knight Rises having a floor of $400 M DOM/ $600 M Foreign. How far above that it goes depends on if the film is a cultural epoch, or just another threequel.

Amazing Spider-Man is a reboot to a less than 10 year old, highly successful franchise. The pre-buzz for the film is very mediocre compared to the buzz of the last 3 SM films. This isn't anyone's most anticipated movie of the summer except for die-hard Spider-Fans; it's all either TDKR or Avengers.

I'm betting on $1.1 B for The Dark Knight Rises, and $750 M for ASM. ASM will do well under $300 M domestic, but will be saved by brand recognition and 3-D trolling in foreign markets.

[Tony Stark]

Originally Posted by Doctor Jones

But TDKR has a benefit of being the last big blockbuster of the summer. I mean what comes after it? Expendables 2 won't do much to it. It really has the rest of the summer without any threatening competition. Avengers had the beginning and TDKR has the end. And depending on how good TDKR, is it's possible it can do alot. As much as TDK remains to be seen but I dont' think it will make as much as Avengers.

The problem that TDKR will have if the novelization spoilers are true, is that it is a downer of a story line and several things that happen to key characters that may upset viewers. This was part of the problem that X3 had, although, X3 had way worse problems than just that.

Needless to say, I expect it will open big, but have a lower multiplier than TDK did. It still should make a billion WW, so long as it gets into China.

[Jordanstine]

Originally Posted by Octavias

Based on its pace vs TDK, i predict the week from tue to sunday will look like this:
Tue $3,042,165.45
Wed$2,248,175.77
Thu $2,280,106.20
Fri $6,147,320.48
Sat $9,466,478.18
Sun $6,205,448.56

Total Tue through sunday- $29,389,694.65
Again the pace vs TDK is remarkably consistant

Brilliant observation, since apparently you're pretty close! Avengers did around $3.3 million though so $21-$22 million in effect if the holds are correct.