The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 6

[Joeyjojo72]

So TA will pass TDK tomorrow for domestic bo?

[Tony Stark]

Should pass it tomorrow and 550M by end of weekend, making it fastest to 550M. I'm beginning to wonder where this is going to stop. 600M seems for certain, but where does it end?

For example Avengers reached 500M in 23 days. By comparison the next fastest was Avatar at 32 days. Now Avatar started slower than Avengers, so it's hard to do a one to one comparison, but Avengers will be in Theaters at least until August/September. In fact because all the other may films did so horribly it's not losing very many screens. Dark Shadows and Battle Ship will be gone from theaters by end of June with all the new movies coming out, so Avengers really isn't having to give up many screens to make room for the new movies coming out.

[Iceman]

Friday's number will take it past TDK yeah. Sunday should get it to $550m.

[Travesty]

Hmmmm, I thought it would stop at around 550-570, but it looks like I'll probably be wrong.

[Jordanstine]

Some quick long term (conservative) projections...

5th weekend (June 1) = $21.0 million ($7.7 million Tue-Thu)
6th weekend (June 8) = $12.3 million ($7.7 million Mon-Thu)
7th weekend (June 15) = $7.5 million ($4.2 million Mon-Thu)
8th weekend (June 22) = $4.2 million ($2.9 million Mon-Thu)
9th weekend (June 29) = $2.4 million ($1.7 million Mon-Thu)

$47.4 million weekend + $24.3 weekdays = $71.7 million more by the end of June?

If that's accurate... The Avengers would be $595.6 million before July starts?

Give or take +/- 3 million so it should be around $592 million - $595 million.

Outside chance to break $600 million after the 1st weekend of July, or on July 4th holiday week?

[04nbod]

Originally Posted by Mysteryman

Impossible.
It comes out next weekend .

We were talking about the UK where it is out tomorrow.

[Jordanstine]

Originally Posted by Jordanstine

Some quick long term (conservative) projections...

5th weekend (June 1) = $21.0 million ($7.7 million Tue-Thu)
6th weekend (June 8) = $12.3 million ($7.7 million Mon-Thu)
7th weekend (June 15) = $7.5 million ($4.2 million Mon-Thu)
8th weekend (June 22) = $4.2 million ($2.9 million Mon-Thu)
9th weekend (June 29) = $2.4 million ($1.7 million Mon-Thu)

$47.4 million weekend + $24.3 weekdays = $71.7 million more by the end of June?

If that's accurate... The Avengers would be $595.6 million before July starts?

Give or take +/- 3 million so it should be around $592 million - $595 million.

Outside chance to break $600 million after the 1st weekend of July, or on July 4th holiday week?

I take that back.

It has a real good chance to break $600 million by the 1st week of July if not sooner.

[PokeJ]

And, it will start holding better with Summer weekdays coming in. Everybody will be out of school for Summer.

[Raiden]

Originally Posted by Jordanstine

I take that back.

It has a real good chance to break $600 million by the 1st week of July if not sooner.

After 600 million, we can start speculating when TA will crack 700 million.

[antonydavanzo]

Hi all, it's impressive to see these box office numbers. I mean a hell of a lot of people went to see this film either once or even more. I wonder what percentage of the overall takings are from repeat viewings? It would be interesting to see ( though pretty much impossible). Do you think the next wave of Marvel movies will generate a higher income than pre-avengers movies due to the success of avengers? I do know a lot of people that hardly go to the cinema, the avengers was an event movie that made guys I know actually want to see this film then in turn want to see the rest of the films ( avengers prequels ). I really hope and think that this added interest will give the next wave of marvel movies am even bigger box office taking than their previous movies... Well not counting the avengers!

[Saitou Hajime]

Originally Posted by Jordanstine

TDKR can break the midnight record, and will most likely have the higher midnight numbers than TA.

It can do the latter, MAYBE. But it has no shot at the former.

[Spideyfan93]

That would be insane if TDKR could top Avengers with financial numbers. This summer is already turning out to be one of the most solid quality wise.

Avengers is the only real cash grabber so far this summer though. And rightfully so.

[Rock Sexton]

Any word from Combocaz who voted 300 million?

[Travesty]

Originally Posted by Rock Sexton

Any word from Combocaz who voted 300 million?

[Iceman]

Originally Posted by Saitou Hajime

It can do the latter, MAYBE. But it has no shot at the former.

Yeah, TA itself was nowhere near the midnight record so they are two very different targets.

[TheVileOne]

It will be interesting to see if Dark Knight Rises can top Avengers. Hey anything is possible. Maybe the Avengers numbers will get the competitive juices of fans flowing.

[Juicy J]

Wouldn't surprise me either way. I have no doubt batmans gonna break a billion but I'd be interested to see if it could pass the Avengers. If anyone can do it, it's batman. Once late June/early July rolls around I'm sure the bathype will be up in full force and we'll get a better feel for it by then.

[Flemm]

Originally Posted by Juicy J

Wouldn't surprise me either way. I have no doubt batmans gonna break a billion but I'd be interested to see if it could pass the Avengers. If anyone can do it, it's batman. Once late June/early July rolls around I'm sure the bathype will be up in full force and we'll get a better feel for it by then.

Well, Nolan seems to have a knack for making movies that generate excitement and have good legs, so I think it's possible, you never know.

If it does, it probably means it's an awesome movie, so win/win for everyone, really.

[Iceman]

All I want from TDKR is $500m domestic & $1BN global (same as I wanted for Avengers). Part of that is to show a Batman film can make $500m without extenuating factors. I don't care about who finishes on top.

[Superhero 101]

Same here

[Octavias]

I have a feeling that TDKR will be awfully close to TA numbers, though I always fear the third movie in a trilogy because they suck unexpectedly too often for my liking. I am hoping they dont kill Bruce, which would be the one way i could see the movie having no legs at all... anyhow TA moves to number 3 today....

[Octavias]

Im still pretty certain TA wont come close to 650 total, but after another week if it continues to trend slightly higher than its comparitive daileys were for the first few weeks, I may be bumping my final total projection from 607 up to 615 to 625 range.
I will say this, if it gets close to the 625 range than Id say its every comic book fans duty to see it one more time to make a legit run at knocking off Titanic... its bad enough Avatar is perpetually going to be #1.. may as well have a comic book movie #2

[Tony Stark]

I will not be surprised if Avengers ends up ahead of MIB 3 this weekend. Most are giving it a 50-53% drop, and I think it will be a 60% drop.

[Raiden]

Originally Posted by Juicy J

Wouldn't surprise me either way. I have no doubt batmans gonna break a billion but I'd be interested to see if it could pass the Avengers. If anyone can do it, it's batman. Once late June/early July rolls around I'm sure the bathype will be up in full force and we'll get a better feel for it by then.

I still don't believe that TDKR can beat TA. I think what TA has accomplished is quite unprecedented, with only a few movies being able to match it in the past, and I don't think it can be surpassed so soon. I doubt TA's records will stand the test of time, but I also don't believe that another movie can break them only a couple of months later. But hey, if TDKR can pull it off, more powers to it.

[Tony Stark]

It can't do it without 3D boost. If you look at Avengers and TDK they had about the same attendane wise, and if you adjust TDK for inflation it would be about 588M. Avengers will go past 600M with 3D boost, so the two are very similar.

IOW for TDKR to beat the record, it would have to set attendance records that theater chains probably couldn't handle the amount of business for the number of screens available.

I expect TDKR to open somewhere in the 170-180M range, which is excellent.