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Old 08-04-2012, 11:53 AM   #76
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Default Re: 2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 5

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Originally Posted by Liam_H View Post
Bourne Legacy will beat TDKR next weekend. Only chance for that not happening is if its tracking around $25 million and TDKR holds far better than expected.
The Campaign as well should top TDKR, it should buck the trend of R-rated comedy bombs. TDKR will probably drop to 3rd while TR could go to 5th or 6th with Hope Springs opening better.

Bourne Legacy
The Campaign
TDKR
Hope Springs
Total Recall
Wimpy Kid 3
Ice Age 4
Ted
The Watch
Step Up 4

That's a lot of sequels/remakes in the top ten for next week.

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Old 08-04-2012, 12:04 PM   #77
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Default Re: 2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 5

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The Campaign as well should top TDKR, it should buck the trend of R-rated comedy bombs.
I dont think there is a trend of R rated comedy Box office bombs
21 Jump Street
PRoject X
American Reunion
Ted
Magic Mike to an extent (it's comedy-drama right?)
all have done well this year. I mean sure there are r rated comedies that havent done well but I wouldnt call it a trend


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Old 08-04-2012, 12:20 PM   #78
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Default Re: 2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 5

Friends with Kids
Wanderlust
The Five Year Engagement
That's My Boy
The Watch
American Reunion
Seeking a Friend for the End of the World
The Dictator
What to Expect When You're Expecting

AR was only saved by its overseas gross, $57m domestic vs. $177m international.
Project X had a micro-budget so it did great but grossed less than American Reunion.

Yes Ted, 21 Jump Street and Magic Mike have done well so maybe there isn't a trend but that's still a short list.

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Old 08-04-2012, 02:00 PM   #79
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Default Re: 2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 5

And then last year there was Horrible Bosses, The Hangover Part II and that little movie called Bridesmaids.

There are always R-rated comedy hits going all the way back to Animal House. Just like PG-rated comedies, some succeed and some do not.

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Old 08-04-2012, 02:02 PM   #80
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Default Re: 2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 5

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Originally Posted by Shifty View Post
The Campaign as well should top TDKR, it should buck the trend of R-rated comedy bombs. TDKR will probably drop to 3rd while TR could go to 5th or 6th with Hope Springs opening better.
No sure certain about Campaign besting Dark Knight Rises. Maybe but...not feeling it.

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Old 08-04-2012, 02:03 PM   #81
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Default Re: 2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 5

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Originally Posted by Shifty View Post
Friends with Kids
Wanderlust
The Five Year Engagement
That's My Boy
The Watch
American Reunion
Seeking a Friend for the End of the World
The Dictator

AR was only saved by its overseas gross, $57m domestic vs. $177m international.
Project X had a micro-budget so it did great but grossed less than American Reunion.

Yes Ted, 21 Jump Street and Magic Mike have done well so maybe there isn't a trend but that's still a short list.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DACrowe View Post
And then last year there was Horrible Bosses, The Hangover Part II and that little movie called Bridesmaids.

There are always R-rated comedy hits going all the way back to Animal House. Just like PG-rated comedies, some succeed and some do not.
This. Some fail, some succeed, it's not really a trend.


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Old 08-04-2012, 03:01 PM   #82
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Default Re: 2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 5

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No sure certain about Campaign besting Dark Knight Rises. Maybe but...not feeling it.
I think it can do $30 million+ just based on Due Date and The Other Guys' opening weekends.

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This. Some fail, some succeed, it's not really a trend.
I was referring to just the movies of this year not the entire history of R-rated comedies. It wasn't the right choice of words.

There has been a lot of under performing or disappointing R-rated comedies this year.

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Old 08-04-2012, 03:18 PM   #83
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Default Re: 2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 5

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I think it can do $30 million+ just based on Due Date and The Other Guys' opening weekends.
Those didn't have direct competition their weekends. Big difference.

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Old 08-04-2012, 03:20 PM   #84
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Default Re: 2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 5

Agreed, FNJ. I was about to say that those movies didn't have to compete with Bourne as well as Batman, which has been holding on strongly.

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Old 08-04-2012, 03:42 PM   #85
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Default Re: 2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 5

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Originally Posted by Shifty View Post
The Campaign as well should top TDKR, it should buck the trend of R-rated comedy bombs. TDKR will probably drop to 3rd while TR could go to 5th or 6th with Hope Springs opening better.

Bourne Legacy
The Campaign
TDKR
Hope Springs
Total Recall
Wimpy Kid 3
Ice Age 4
Ted
The Watch
Step Up 4

That's a lot of sequels/remakes in the top ten for next week.
not feeling the campaign being ahit bourne 35 to 40mill batman 25mill the campaign 21mll

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Old 08-04-2012, 03:44 PM   #86
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Default Re: 2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 5

Total Recall is the least shocking bomb of the year, next to John Carter. I wonder if it will come in lower than the original film's opening weekend when the final numbers come out monday afternoon? My predicts have as usual sucked this year but I did pretty decently on one or two things.

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Old 08-04-2012, 03:54 PM   #87
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Default Re: 2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 5

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if Recall beats TDKR this weekend...
the 2008 competition point will have been proven.
totall recall is a 200mil dud waiting to happen no shot at beating batman recall 26mill tops. colin farell wrong choice for a 200mill blockbuster

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Old 08-04-2012, 03:55 PM   #88
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Default Re: 2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 5

I think Farrell wouldve been fine if they put big name draws in the supporting roles. Beckinsale and Biel while well known arent BO draws and Bryan Cranston and Bill Nighy are good actors neither have drawn in a big crowd to a movie

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Old 08-04-2012, 07:05 PM   #89
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Default Re: 2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 5

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Total Recall is the least shocking bomb of the year, next to John Carter. I wonder if it will come in lower than the original film's opening weekend when the final numbers come out monday afternoon? My predicts have as usual sucked this year but I did pretty decently on one or two things.
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totall recall is a 200mil dud waiting to happen no shot at beating batman recall 26mill tops. colin farell wrong choice for a 200mill blockbuster
Yeah, I felt that a 200 mil movie starring Colin Farrell was a bad idea, plus the fact that they watered it down to PG-13 (unlike the Schwarznegger movie) could be another factor in its underperforming.

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Old 08-04-2012, 07:32 PM   #90
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Default Re: 2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 5

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Total Recall is the least shocking bomb of the year, next to John Carter. I wonder if it will come in lower than the original film's opening weekend when the final numbers come out monday afternoon? My predicts have as usual sucked this year but I did pretty decently on one or two things.
Battleship belongs in the conversation too.

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Old 08-04-2012, 08:23 PM   #91
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Default Re: 2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 5

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Yeah, I felt that a 200 mil movie starring Colin Farrell was a bad idea, plus the fact that they watered it down to PG-13 (unlike the Schwarznegger movie) could be another factor in its underperforming.
If anything I think a PG13 rating helped it more. If it was R rated with a 200 mill budget then it wouldve been in worse shape I think.

From what Ive noticed I think mostly us net dwellers care about rating that much


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Old 08-04-2012, 08:32 PM   #92
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Default Re: 2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 5

200 million? This movie could have been made with half that amount.

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Old 08-04-2012, 10:11 PM   #93
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Default Re: 2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 5

can anyone tell me the last time a movie with a 200mill budget was a success without a bankable star?the only one i can think of is avatar.

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Old 08-04-2012, 11:54 PM   #94
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Default Re: 2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 5

Is there positive buzz on Bourne Legacy? I know some people don't want to see it because they think Jeremy Renner is being recast in the Matt Damon role (when the marketing makes it clear it's not). Maybe perhaps it could lift the August doldrums before Expendables 2 barrels in the week after?

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Old 08-05-2012, 01:43 AM   #95
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Default Re: 2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 5

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Battleship belongs in the conversation too.
Eh you have a point but I way overpredicted it because I didn't have faith in the public. I can't deny that it bombing isn't surprising though. At all.

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Old 08-05-2012, 01:50 AM   #96
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Default Re: 2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 5

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can anyone tell me the last time a movie with a 200mill budget was a success without a bankable star?the only one i can think of is avatar.
One could say ASM but that's probably mostly just the brand. Or 2012 if you count overseas.

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Old 08-05-2012, 11:36 AM   #97
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Default Re: 2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 5

Weekend Estimates
http://boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/


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Old 08-05-2012, 12:13 PM   #98
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Default Re: 2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 5

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One could say ASM but that's probably mostly just the brand. Or 2012 if you count overseas.
im talkin domestic john carter and battlship made a ton overseas.i dont consider asm a hit domestically.

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Old 08-05-2012, 12:16 PM   #99
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Default Re: 2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 5

wait a minute everyone had totall recall with a 200mill budget now mojo is saying 125mill? even with tax breaks something seems off with that

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Old 08-05-2012, 12:21 PM   #100
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Default Re: 2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 5

125 seems way more reasonable either way.

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