The TDKR Box Office Thread V

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This is a continuation thread, the old thread is Here

[Thread Manager]

This is a continuation thread, the old thread is Here

[rashad]

Originally Posted by BatLobsterRises

Do you guys think it will easily be able to pull off 400 million domestic, or will be be a very slow crawl to get there?

The gross will be somewhere in the 380-390m range after the weekend and will cross 400m next week.

[BatLobsterRises]

Cool to hear. Very proud of how well the film is doing.

[Bruce_Begins]

Bourne Legacy is at 50 % on RT right now with total 16 reviews (8 fresh, 8 rotten) so far.

The RT score can go up (or down) but it is not a good start for this movie and with Total Rekall at RT rating of 30 %, can TDKR stay at No. 1 position for the fourth week ? If it does it would be quite an achievement.

[Milkman95]

Still don't think it will beat Bourne Legacy, but should have a $20 million weekend....

[redfirebird2008]

Originally Posted by Bruce_Begins

Bourne Legacy is at 50 % on RT right now with total 16 reviews (8 fresh, 8 rotten) so far.

The RT score can go up (or down) but it is not a good start for this movie and with Total Rekall at RT rating of 30 %, can TDKR stay at No. 1 position for the fourth week ? If it does it would be quite an achievement.

No chance of it beating Bourne. TDKR is headed for a $17-20m weekend, while Bourne is headed for a $35-45m weekend.

[Bruce_Begins]

The Campaign is a comedy movie, I hope that it does not take second position from TDKR.

[Mr. Dent]

Originally Posted by redfirebird2008

$430m is a lock, so it won't be a slow crawl to $400m.

Yeah $430m is about a lock but I can't see it going any higher than that unfortunately.

[redfirebird2008]

Originally Posted by Mr. Dent

Yeah $430m is about a lock but I can't see it going any higher than that unfortunately.

It'll go higher than that.

[Notrip]

1. Bourne Legacy (36-40 million weekend)
2. The Campaign (23-27 million weekend)
3. TDKR (18-22 million weekend)
4. Total Recall (12 million weekend)

This is how it should go down this upcoming weekend.

[marcvader]

Is the campaign tracking that high?

[Notrip]

Originally Posted by Mr. Dent

Yeah $430m is about a lock but I can't see it going any higher than that unfortunately.

It will be about 20 or so million higher. its at 363 right now and with a potential of 20 million this weekend. after 24 days it will be around 390-394 million.

if i had to put a number on it right now 475 is the max it will get to with 450-455 (domestic)million being the number I think it will get to and the number WB is shooting for right now.

[Notrip]

right around those numbers. should edge out TDKR for second.

[Mr. Dent]

Originally Posted by redfirebird2008

It'll go higher than that.

Originally Posted by Notrip

It will be about 20 or so million higher. its at 363 right now and with a potential of 20 million this weekend. after 24 days it will be around 390-394 million.

if i had to put a number on it right now 475 is the max it will get to with 450-455 (domestic)million being the number I think it will get to and the number WB is shooting for right now.

I'm imagining around 18-20m tops for the whole of next week (about 2m per day Mon-Thurs and around 10-12m for the weekend) which would put it at 410m after next week. From there I can see it hitting 430m with a week and two days time but after that it'll be crawling and I can't see it getting all the way to 450m by the time it completely closes in theaters. I'd put the high at 445m. I could be underestimating its legs but I don't think I am given how its performed thus far.

[Jordanstine]

The pace right now...

By this 4th weekend it will take in another $36.3 million for the whole week.

5th weekend about another $19.7 million.

6th weekend another $11 million.

7th weekend Labor Day $7.5 million.

8th weekend about $3.5 million.

9th weekend about $2 million.

10th weekend about $1.2 million.

So after it's 10th weekend, TDKR would make about another ~ $80.1 million.

Based on estimates, the total should be up at about ~ $435 million after September 23.

[Bruce Malone]

I've been basing my projections on how it stacks up next to pirates 2 as their dailies have been extremely similar. As of now it's been consistently $30m ahead of where pirates 2 is at mainly due to its larger opening weekend.

If things hold it should finish around the 450m mark as pirates 2 finished with $423m.

[Mr. Dent]

^ The dailies have been very close the TDKR ahead of it ever day actually, but Pirates 2 had really good weekends in it's 7-10th weeks and I'm not sure if TDKR will age as gracefully.

[Bruce Malone]

As of now TDKR has actually held better from the 2nd to 3rd wknd drop than TDK did so i think its legs are pretty decent.

I predict bourne opening this weekend will be another total recall and see a lot of ppl sticking to TDKR although i don't think it will win the weekend. I and most experts at the moment are predicting 450m so unless there are some trand changes it seems most likely.

[regwec]

To me, the Bourneless Bourne smacks of mediocrity even more so than Total Remake.

[TheGuy]

So when's TDKR gonna hit $1b?

[Mr. Dent]

I'd say in another 3-4 weeks.

[Jordanstine]

Originally Posted by redfirebird2008

It'll go higher than that.

Hey bird, did you know why the forums were taken out at BO?

[Liam_H]

They're just undergoing maintenance. Shouldn't be too long before they're back up.

[Jordanstine]

Originally Posted by Liam_H

They're just undergoing maintenance. Shouldn't be too long before they're back up.

Thanks.

Originally Posted by Mr. Dent

I'm imagining around 18-20m tops for the whole of next week (about 2m per day Mon-Thurs and around 10-12m for the weekend) which would put it at 410m after next week. From there I can see it hitting 430m with a week and two days time but after that it'll be crawling and I can't see it getting all the way to 450m by the time it completely closes in theaters. I'd put the high at 445m. I could be underestimating its legs but I don't think I am given how its performed thus far.

Agreed.

The analysis I wrote in a different forum:

$475 million is definitely out of the picture.

By it's 10th weekend (September 23) TDKR should be around $435 - $438 million.

$450 million still has a chance, but it would be a slow crawl from October on out, assuming it's still in the local theaters longer than 16 weeks like TDK did which would be around mid-late November or so.

By the 17th week is when we can expect WB to have TDKR moved to the dollar theaters, which brought in an extra $2.5 million to 2008's TDK. In TDKR's comparison percentage that would be roughly about $2.1 million on the high end.

So if I had to guesstimate (assuming no re-releases) based on it's current pace... TDKR's original run is looking to end roughly between $443 - $447 million.