The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread

[Mr. Dent]

Originally Posted by Mysteryman

But it is not just about SR.
There has not been a hit Superman movie since 1980.
The Franchise has a lot to prove and a lot of baggage in the form of some pretty crappy movies .

There hasn't been a good Superman movie since 1980. >.>

[ThePowerCosmic]

Originally Posted by BigThor

Well said, I'm loving everything I've seen from MOS so far but honestly Thor 2 just has much more going for it. I'm not saying MOS will do bad by any means, I just don't think it'll be as big as Thor:TDW or anywhere near IM3.

Like I said, Thor was the 3rd most popular character in a 1.5 billion dollar film his sequel film is gonna do NUMBERS.

How does Thor 2 have much more going for it than MoS?

[mkilban2]

Originally Posted by ThePowerCosmic

How does Thor 2 have much more going for it than MoS?

I believe he means since it's the second movie in the series, coming after both IM3 and Avengers. Looks to be a pretty big staple in this Phase of the MCU, and is going to be on an immensely bigger scale than Thor1.

Where as MoS is the first SuperMan movie that looks good in a bajillion years. (I've never seen the old ones, don't care for SM so that's just my biased opinion lol)

[ThePowerCosmic]

Originally Posted by mkilban2

I believe he means since it's the second movie in the series, coming after both IM3 and Avengers. Looks to be a pretty big staple in this Phase of the MCU, and is going to be on an immensely bigger scale than Thor1.

Where as MoS is the first SuperMan movie that looks good in a bajillion years. (I've never seen the old ones, don't care for SM so that's just my biased opinion lol)

I don't see how that means it has much more going for it, though.

A movie about the most well-known superhero produced by the director of the TDK trilogy and directed by Snyder during a time when cbms are at their most popular?

TDW has a lot going for it, I just don't think it has a lot more going for it than MoS.

[xeno000]

Originally Posted by redhawk23

I don't really think Iron Man 2 was damaging as far as the general public was concerned.

I agree. Although there is a lot of online hatred for IM2, I don't think that the GA shares that disdain. It may not have been as popular as Iron Man but it in no way deserves the Spider-Man 3 level of hatred it gets from the Internet crowd.

[BigThor]

Originally Posted by ThePowerCosmic

How does Thor 2 have much more going for it than MoS?

It was already explained in the quote above mine, for one Thor 2 a direct sequel to a pretty successful film. It's also coming right after a 1.5 billion dollar film in which Thor was the 3rd most popular character with the audiences.

Hemsworth is a much bigger draw than Henry Cavill, he's one of the biggest new actors in Hollywood, and Thor 2's connected with a gauranteed billion dollars film "Iron Man".

You can disagree if you want, just remember I said this after both films are released.

[ThePowerCosmic]

Originally Posted by BigThor

It was already explained in the quote above mine, for one Thor 2 a direct sequel to a pretty successful film. It's also coming right after a 1.5 billion dollar film in which Thor was the 3rd most popular character with the audiences.

Hemsworth is a much bigger draw than Henry Cavill, he's one of the biggest new actors in Hollywood, and Thor 2's connected with a gauranteed billion dollars film "Iron Man".

You can disagree if you want, just remember I said this after both films are released.

Okay, so you're saying that Thor 2 will outgross MoS?

If so, I will remember this because I don't see that happening. It's gonna be a long time until then but we'll come back to this when both movies have had their run.

[mkilban2]

Originally Posted by ThePowerCosmic

I don't see how that means it has much more going for it, though.

A movie about the most well-known superhero produced by the director of the TDK trilogy and directed by Snyder during a time when cbms are at their most popular?

TDW has a lot going for it, I just don't think it has a lot more going for it than MoS.

I think in the General Populations eyes Superman is clearly no longer the most well-known superhero or even remotely the most desired to see in a movie. Thor on the other hand will have been on screen 3 times counting TDW and has major fans already established in the general population.

If MoS drums up the fact that "From the director of the Dark Knight trilogy" comes Man of Steel, then yes they will probably draw in a good amount of more people. Also I think not having "Superman" in the title could hurt a little maybe

[ThePowerCosmic]

Originally Posted by mkilban2

I think in the General Populations eyes Superman is clearly no longer the most well-known superhero or even remotely the most desired to see in a movie. Thor on the other hand will have been on screen 3 times counting TDW and has major fans already established in the general population.

If MoS drums up the fact that "From the director of the Dark Knight trilogy" comes Man of Steel, then yes they will probably draw in a good amount of more people. Also I think not having "Superman" in the title could hurt a little maybe

Superman is the most well-known superhero, and that's around the world. It's a fact.

Also, I think in the GA's eyes Superman is boring and his only weakness is Krpytonite, but once they see what MoS has to offer that won't be a problem. The Superman craze will boom again after this movie... but that's just what I think will happen.

And it's a certainty that MoS will drum up the fact that Nolan is producing. They've already done it in the first trailer and will continue to do so. That's just good marketing. I don't think not having Superman in the title will hurt it, because people will still eventually see that it is Superman if the title confuses them right now. It's no different from Batman's movie being called, "The Dark Knight".

[mkilban2]

Originally Posted by ThePowerCosmic

Superman is the most well-known superhero, and that's around the world. It's a fact.

Also, I think in the GA's eyes Superman is boring and his only weakness is Krpytonite, but once they see what MoS has to offer that won't be a problem. The Superman craze will boom again after this movie... but that's just what I think will happen.

And it's a certainty that MoS will drum up the fact that Nolan is producing. They've already done it in the first trailer and will continue to do so. That's just good marketing. I don't think not having Superman in the title will hurt it, because people will still eventually see that it is Superman if the title confuses them right now. It's no different from Batman's movie being called, "The Dark Knight".

I think if you asked 100 random people who their favorite super hero was or asked those same 100 people to even name a superhero, Superman would clock in like less than 25%.

And good point on the "Dark Knight" thing.. guess I didn't think of that haha.

Regardless, each movie will be a success and I'm stoked for both. I really, really, really hope MoS leads into a DC shared universe. Stand alone superhero films are forever ruined for me haha, I need a shared universe, or at the very least hints to other heroes around.

[ThePowerCosmic]

Originally Posted by mkilban2

I think if you asked 100 random people who their favorite super hero was or asked those same 100 people to even name a superhero, Superman would clock in like less than 25%.

And good point on the "Dark Knight" thing.. guess I didn't think of that haha.

Regardless, each movie will be a success and I'm stoked for both. I really, really, really hope MoS leads into a DC shared universe. Stand alone superhero films are forever ruined for me haha, I need a shared universe, or at the very least hints to other heroes around

Yeah, I don't think a lot of people would say Supes is their favorite super hero(at least before MoS' release). I disagree with less than 25% of 100 people naming Superman if you asked them to name a superhero. Superman is literally who most people think about when they hear "superhero".

And if MoS doesn't lead into a shared DCU then WB can go screw themselves. This is the perfect chance, dammit!

[mkilban2]

Originally Posted by ThePowerCosmic

Yeah, I don't think a lot of people would say Supes is their favorite super hero(at least before MoS' release). I disagree with less than 25% of 100 people naming Superman if you asked them to name a superhero. Superman is literally who most people think about when they hear "superhero".

And if MoS doesn't lead into a shared DCU then WB can go screw themselves. This is the perfect chance, dammit!

Yeah I mean i know more than 25% would know who Superman is probably like 90%+, I just don't think that given that past decade of what I can recall being related to superheros that Superman has been involved in very much. I think first superhero to come to mind to most would either be Batman, Iron Man, or Spidey.

I'm so sad that Nolan and DC didn't have the vision, or were too arrogant with the Batman project or whatever their reasonings were behind not including this Batman, and even Green Lantern into a very early shared Universe. (not that Batz would have shown up in GL or vise versa, but like a mention on Gotham in GL or something along those lines.. just to get the ball rolling ever so slightly.)

[kedrell]

Did GL even mention his own city in that movie? Much less cities like Gotham or Metropolis. I don't even know what city GL is from or serves as the hero of.

[xeno000]

Originally Posted by kedrell

Did GL even mention his own city in that movie? Much less cities like Gotham or Metropolis. I don't even know what city GL is from or serves as the hero of.

I'm a GL fan and I don't remember whether he's from Star City or Coast City*, or even which real US cities those are supposed to stand in for. The location may have been mentioned in passing but they definitely did not play it up. Frankly, beyond Metropolis and Gotham, which are well known to the GA, the other mythical DC cities sound stupid outside the context of the comics.


* It's Coast City. I looked it up.

[ThePowerCosmic]

Yeah, I think Green Arrow is the one in Star City. Then the Flash is in Central City.

[kedrell]

Originally Posted by xeno000

I'm a GL fan and I don't remember whether he's from Star City or Coast City*, or even which real US cities those are supposed to stand in for. The location may have been mentioned in passing but they definitely did not play it up. Frankly, beyond Metropolis and Gotham, which are well known to the GA, the other mythical DC cities sound stupid outside the context of the comics.


* It's Coast City. I looked it up.

Probably because those two really don't need the 'City' attached(even though Gotham is technically Gotham City but it works just as well without that part and I've never heard anyone say Metropolis City).

Just tagging City on seems lazy and uninventive.

[Luíz]

OW: 162m
DOM: 410m
OS: 550m
WW: 960m

[xeno000]

Originally Posted by ThePowerCosmic

Yeah, I don't think a lot of people would say Supes is their favorite super hero(at least before MoS' release). I disagree with less than 25% of 100 people naming Superman if you asked them to name a superhero. Superman is literally who most people think about when they hear "superhero".

And if MoS doesn't lead into a shared DCU then WB can go screw themselves. This is the perfect chance, dammit!

Although I will grant you that Superman has the highest name recognition among superheroes, I would also argue that he is among the least popular major comic book characters. His lack of popularity stems from the fact that he hasn't appeared in a successful, well-received film since the early 80s. For all of his name recognition, Superman Returns could only muster $391M worldwide. Even when adjusted for inflation that is still less than Thor made. In another thread it was pointed out that SR scored around the same as Thor on Rotten Tomatoes, 76% to the thunder god's 77%.


So even with higher name recognition and identical critical reception Superman could not earn more than one of Marvel's less known properties. Part of that is down to the quality of the film, which although well-received did not resonate with the audience the way many other superhero films have. But I would also argue that modern audiences simply are not particularly interested in Superman the way that they are in Iron Man, Batman, Spider-Man and others who are currently popular. The opening weekend total for SR was an underwhelming $52M, which is less than either Hulk film pulled in ($64M and $55M, respectively). (Even the lesser-known Green Lantern did as well in its opening weekend.) Hulk is fairly popular and well-known, but not as much as Supes, so that comparison is informative.


All of the above is to point out that Superman doesn't seem to enjoy the level of popularity many people assume he does. A Superman film starts off with an automatic advantage in terms of name recognition, but that will not necessarily translate into higher ticket sales. Better quality will help MOS, assuming that it is better than SR, but even that is no guarantee that the film will break into the upper echelon of superhero blockbusters, given the character's box office history.

[xeno000]

Originally Posted by kedrell

Probably because those two really don't need the 'City' attached(even though Gotham is technically Gotham City but it works just as well without that part and I've never heard anyone say Metropolis City).

Just tagging City on seems lazy and uninventive.

It's always amusing to remember that Metropolis is supposed to mirror Cleveland. The fake city names are something that always annoyed me about DC Comics.

[mkilban2]

Originally Posted by xeno000

It's always amusing to remember that Metropolis is supposed to mirror Cleveland. The fake city names are something that always annoyed me about DC Comics.

eeeeee! I live in Metropolis then!

[xeno000]

Originally Posted by mkilban2

eeeeee! I live in Metropolis then!

You live in the city where Superman was born.

[ThePowerCosmic]

Originally Posted by xeno000

Although I will grant you that Superman has the highest name recognition among superheroes, I would also argue that he is among the least popular major comic book characters. His lack of popularity stems from the fact that he hasn't appeared in a successful, well-received film since the early 80s. For all of his name recognition, Superman Returns could only muster $391M worldwide. Even when adjusted for inflation that is still less than Thor made. In another thread it was pointed out that SR scored around the same as Thor on Rotten Tomatoes, 76% to the thunder god's 77%.


So even with higher name recognition and identical critical reception Superman could not earn more than one of Marvel's less known properties. Part of that is down to the quality of the film, which although well-received did not resonate with the audience the way many other superhero films have. But I would also argue that modern audiences simply are not particularly interested in Superman the way that they are in Iron Man, Batman, Spider-Man and others who are currently popular. The opening weekend total for SR was an underwhelming $52M, which is less than either Hulk film pulled in ($64M and $55M, respectively). (Even the lesser-known Green Lantern did as well in its opening weekend.) Hulk is fairly popular and well-known, but not as much as Supes, so that comparison is informative.


All of the above is to point out that Superman doesn't seem to enjoy the level of popularity many people assume he does. A Superman film starts off with an automatic advantage in terms of name recognition, but that will not necessarily translate into higher ticket sales. Better quality will help MOS, assuming that it is better than SR, but even that is no guarantee that the film will break into the upper echelon of superhero blockbusters, given the character's box office history.

That's because current audiences think Superman is boring and unengaging. All he needs is a fitting movie to get people loving him. It really is that simple. And SR had a good opening but WOM didn't help it because it ended up being a fairly boring and goofy movie. MoS' word of mouth is what will carry it beyond what SR and Thor did.

I honestly think MoS will outgross TDW and surprise some of you doubters. Nothing is certain, but it seems like a guarantee to me with all of the ingredients that have been put in to make it. Just a gut feeling.

[Mr. Dent]

Starting to get a little too Superman-centric in here...

[BigThor]

Originally Posted by ThePowerCosmic

Okay, so you're saying that Thor 2 will outgross MoS?

If so, I will remember this because I don't see that happening. It's gonna be a long time until then but we'll come back to this when both movies have had their run.

Nope, I'd never say that because I am not a pyschic but I am saying it most likely will.

Originally Posted by ThePowerCosmic

I honestly think MoS will outgross TDW and surprise some of you doubters. Nothing is certain, but it seems like a guarantee to me with all of the ingredients that have been put in to make it. Just a gut feeling.

Actually most people on these boards in general would agree with you, I'm pretty sure Thor:TDW is the underdog.

[eddy]

Originally Posted by ThePowerCosmic

I don't see how that means it has much more going for it, though.

A movie about the most well-known superhero produced by the director of the TDK trilogy and directed by Snyder during a time when cbms are at their most popular?

Alot of people are still stuck on Chris Reeve's portrayal of the character. I showed my sister the trailer on one of those vid screens at the cinema and as soon as she saw Cavill she said "Thats not Superman, he doesn't look like Superman. Chris Reeve is still Superman." The movie will have to be out of this world good to convince alot of people to go see it. The sequel to MoS will probably do better. I'm predicting Batman Begins numbers with inflation which will bring it to 257 million domestic. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/...yr=2013&p=.htm

The Iron Man films will face this same problem of the audience bonding with a actor's portrayal when RDJ is eventually recasted.