The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread

[kedrell]

^I agree.

[xeno000]

Originally Posted by KangConquers

Boxoffice.com is projecting a $151 M OW for IM3, and a $375 M domestic run. If IM3 had an even ratio of domestic to foreign gross, that would put the Worldwide total at just over $900 M.

I imagine Disney is going to lay on the hype hard in the next 2 months, and if the reviews are Avengers/ IM1 level, this film will pop $1 B with ease.

The editor at boxoffice.com who wrote that article said on the forums that the prediction is based on the current level of hype for the movie. If the hype goes higher they will definitely adjust their prediction upward as the release date draws nearer.


Frankly, I like seeing the professionals low-balling a film's potential. When the numbers are too high it leads ignorant people to call a film a flop simply because expectations for it were set too high. Hopefully expectations will be set for a good but not great release, and then that will be blown out of the water when the numbers roll in. The majority of people vastly underestimated The Avengers' box office prospects and that turned out spectacularly. We should all be happy if the same is true of Iron Man 3.

[Mr.M]

After IM2, I think the general audience may have a bit of the "same old" vibe. The trailers haven't been flat out amazing, like the last MoS trailer. Audiences will show up in droves opening weekend. I can see as high as 160 million give or take a few million. But the competition is way stiffer in the coming weeks. It needs to pull another 70-80 million the following weekend to sustain the momentum. It's going to come down to the reviews and word of mouth. I am thinking it is a lock for 350 domestic at the box office at least. I am not going to bother predicting WW numbers because I have no idea how that will go. Anywhere from 450 million to 650 million.

[Mr. Dent]

Originally Posted by xeno000

The editor at boxoffice.com who wrote that article said on the forums that the prediction is based on the current level of hype for the movie. If the hype goes higher they will definitely adjust their prediction upward as the release date draws nearer.

Huh? How do you calculate hype into a BO OW prediction exactly? Is there any math involved at all?

[Tony Stark]

Yeah that's a non-scientific survey, so hard to take stock in that. I would say 151M opening would be excellent, but I hope it can come in above 160M. It really all depends.

One thing right now box office mojo is giving Iron Man 3 the highest chance of reaching a billion dollard world wide of any movie release in 2013, including the Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug. Right now they are giving it a 60% chance to reach 1 billion world wide.

[T"Challa]

Originally Posted by Mr.M

After IM2, I think the general audience may have a bit of the "same old" vibe. The trailers haven't been flat out amazing, like the last MoS trailer. Audiences will show up in droves opening weekend. I can see as high as 160 million give or take a few million. But the competition is way stiffer in the coming weeks. It needs to pull another 70-80 million the following weekend to sustain the momentum. It's going to come down to the reviews and word of mouth. I am thinking it is a lock for 350 domestic at the box office at least. I am not going to bother predicting WW numbers because I have no idea how that will go. Anywhere from 450 million to 650 million.

I think the trailers have been awesome and the response has been overwhelmingly positive on social media. The 2 trailers have over 120 mill views on YT alone. And the MOS trailer was very good but nothing mind-blowing. There's no way this movie makes 350 mill domestic and ends up with 650 WW. Its definitely going to make more money in the int'l market than domestic with added 3D and IMAX, and momentum from the Avengers. Not to forget the promotion in China due to co-production with DMG. IMO, the only way this makes under 700 mill is if the reviews are very subpar. This thing has too much going for it marketing wise.

[Mr. Dent]

Originally Posted by Tony Stark

Yeah that's a non-scientific survey, so hard to take stock in that. I would say 151M opening would be excellent, but I hope it can come in above 160M. It really all depends.

One thing right now box office mojo is giving Iron Man 3 the highest chance of reaching a billion dollard world wide of any movie release in 2013, including the Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug. Right now they are giving it a 60% chance to reach 1 billion world wide.

It would be crazy if IM3 broke a billion...Marvel would have two billion dollar franchises under their belt and will have released two billion dollar films back-to-back in the span of a year. They'd literally be printing money.

[Tony Stark]

Originally Posted by T"Challa

I think the trailers have been awesome and the response has been overwhelmingly positive on social media. The 2 trailers have over 120 mill views on YT alone. And the MOS trailer was very good but nothing mind-blowing. There's no way this movie makes 350 mill domestic and ends up with 650 WW. Its definitely going to make more money in the int'l market than domestic with added 3D and IMAX, and momentum from the Avengers. Not to forget the promotion in China due to co-production with DMG. IMO, the only way this makes under 700 mill is if the reviews are very subpar. This thing has too much going for it marketing wise.

The problem for MoS is Superman. I don't think a vast majority care for the character anymore. Not the way they did when I was a kid. One of the things that makes Iron Man so relatable is his falability and his weakness, same goes for Batman. That just doesn't exist in Superman. I think what made the first two Superman movies work was the relationship of Lois and Superman. I haven't seen that dynamic in the MoS trailers, but if it doesn't work, it's not going to sell. I think that was part of the problem with Superman Returns. There was ZERO chemistry between Brandon Routh and Kate Bosworth.

[Tony Stark]

Originally Posted by Mr. Dent

It would be crazy if IM3 broke a billion...Marvel would have two billion dollar franchises under their belt and will have released two billion dollar films back-to-back in the span of a year. They'd literally be printing money.

They are definitely on a roll, and they are pushing the bar, and that's what is exciting to me. I mean Marvel's next big thing in addition to Thor and Cap sequels will be to release a movie with a talking Raccoon, how crazy is that?

[T"Challa]

Originally Posted by Tony Stark

They are definitely on a roll, and they are pushing the bar, and that's what is exciting to me. I mean Marvel's next big thing in addition to Thor and Cap sequels will be to release a movie with a talking Raccoon, how crazy is that?

I'm very concerned about GOTG. I get why they want to do it as it will mosgt likely introduce the general audience to Thanos but man, this thing has some serious bust potential especially when you consider the budget. Its going to be a space epic with tons of CGI, probably a 200 mill production budget with at least 50 mill in marketing. I just don't think it has enough going for it to make a viable profit given that budget.

[Tony Stark]

Originally Posted by T"Challa

I'm very concerned about GOTG. I get why they want to do it as it will mosgt likely introduce the general audience to Thanos but man, this thing has some serious bust potential especially when you consider the budget. Its going to be a space epic with tons of CGI, probably a 200 mill production budget with at least 50 mill in marketing. I just don't think it has enough going for it to make a viable profit given that budget.

I don't think the budget will be that much. Marvel has been very frugal with their efforts. Probably part of the reason that they stalled in negotiations with Jason Momoa.

Obviously it will be CGI heavy and that's going to add to the cost, but if they keep the budget for the actors in check, they can offset some of those costs. I think they can do GOTG for 150.

[Steyin]

I'm going to guess IM2 numbers with additional boost from Avengers popularity and some other factors, so:

~350-375 Million Domestic
~750-800 Million WW

[Mr.M]

I think GotG has GL written all over it. To my understanding it is more of a comedy than it is straight up sci-fi, action. Anytime you have a talking racoon you need comedy. I just think that has an appeal to 12 year olds and younger and it will struggle doing business given the crappy release date. If they are using that to lead into Avengers 2, that could slightly dent that film's momentum as well.

[OB12]

I think GotG has GL written all over it. To my understanding it is more of a comedy than it is straight up sci-fi, action. Anytime you have a talking racoon you need comedy. I just think that has an appeal to 12 year olds and younger and it will struggle doing business given the crappy release date. If they are using that to lead into Avengers 2, that could slightly dent that film's momentum as well.

I'm not sure I agree with this. In fact, it could be argued that GOTG will be totally different from GL seeing as GOTG will be about 95% in space and a big complaint of GL is that it spent too much time on earth. There is going to be comedy in GOTG but not anymoreso than any other Marvel Studios film.

[TheIrishAvenger]

Domestic: $450M at most

Worldwide: $850M - $1B

[KangConquers]

To those of you saying it won't do $1 B, what films do you see hitting that mark instead? In 2011, we had 3 $1 B films, and in 2012 we had 4.

I agree on BO mojo naming Catching Fire, Iron Man and The Hobbit 2 as the most likely.

[Mr. Dent]

Originally Posted by T"Challa

I'm very concerned about GOTG. I get why they want to do it as it will mosgt likely introduce the general audience to Thanos but man, this thing has some serious bust potential especially when you consider the budget. Its going to be a space epic with tons of CGI, probably a 200 mill production budget with at least 50 mill in marketing. I just don't think it has enough going for it to make a viable profit given that budget.

Originally Posted by Tony Stark

I don't think the budget will be that much. Marvel has been very frugal with their efforts. Probably part of the reason that they stalled in negotiations with Jason Momoa.

Obviously it will be CGI heavy and that's going to add to the cost, but if they keep the budget for the actors in check, they can offset some of those costs. I think they can do GOTG for 150.

Originally Posted by Mr.M

I think GotG has GL written all over it. To my understanding it is more of a comedy than it is straight up sci-fi, action. Anytime you have a talking racoon you need comedy. I just think that has an appeal to 12 year olds and younger and it will struggle doing business given the crappy release date. If they are using that to lead into Avengers 2, that could slightly dent that film's momentum as well.

GotG will be deathly serious. Will there be humor? Yes, but it will likely be very sarcastic, dry, and even twisted at times. Rocket Racoon and Star-Lord are the funniest characters, and Rocket is only funny because his character is played straight.

The budget will have to be around the $175-200m range, but if Marvel believes the film has enough potential to justify that, I trust them, especially with what I know from the history of Marvel's classic cosmic comics in relation to Thanos and the 2008 Guardians team. This film has real potential to be a major new property. Is there a big potential for that movie to eff up? Hell yes, you bet. But they have chosen the right director in Gunn to bring the movie to the big screen, and it has the potential to be just as big a success as it could be a failure.

Also, it won't be like GL. Quill will in some ways be similar to Hal Jordan in terms of the basics of his origin, but that's about it. The settings, plot, characters, etc will be completely different. This will also have the entire brand of the MCU backing it on top of Disney marketing and IM3 possibly pimping it. I very much like GotG's chances.

[Tony Stark]

Originally Posted by KangConquers

To those of you saying it won't do $1 B, what films do you see hitting that mark instead? In 2011, we had 3 $1 B films, and in 2012 we had 4.

I agree on BO mojo naming Catching Fire, Iron Man and The Hobbit 2 as the most likely.

Catching Fire doesn't have the international audience to reach 1B. I'm banking on Iron Man 3 or the Hobbit, or both. My puncher's chance film for 1B will be Lone Ranger, simply because of Johnny Depp and Disney's involvement. This might be their next "Pirates of the Caribbean" franchise.

[xeno000]

Originally Posted by Mr.M

After IM2, I think the general audience may have a bit of the "same old" vibe. The trailers haven't been flat out amazing, like the last MoS trailer. Audiences will show up in droves opening weekend. I can see as high as 160 million give or take a few million. But the competition is way stiffer in the coming weeks. It needs to pull another 70-80 million the following weekend to sustain the momentum. It's going to come down to the reviews and word of mouth. I am thinking it is a lock for 350 domestic at the box office at least. I am not going to bother predicting WW numbers because I have no idea how that will go. Anywhere from 450 million to 650 million.

The quality of the trailers is a subjective thing. Iron Man 3 has had two incredible trailers, in my opinion, whereas MOS's two trailers have lacked the "wow" factor that I expected from the property. The studio is trading on Superman's audience recognition as well as the executive producer's name, rather than showing us great action or compelling character interactions. After their horrible misfire with Superman Returns, you'd think that WB would be anxious to show us that their hero can at least throw a punch.

[Mr. Dent]

Originally Posted by Tony Stark

Catching Fire doesn't have the international audience to reach 1B. I'm banking on Iron Man 3 or the Hobbit, or both. My puncher's chance film for 1B will be Lone Ranger, simply because of Johnny Depp and Disney's involvement. This might be their next "Pirates of the Caribbean" franchise.

Hunger Games will definitely have expanded in overseas popularity by now. It was a huge hit over here and that spreads to other countries over time, especially with marketing and such. Catching Fire can definitely hit $400-500m overseas this time around on top of the $400m it will make here in the states. If it were in 3D I'd say it would be a lock.

[KangConquers]

Originally Posted by Tony Stark

Catching Fire doesn't have the international audience to reach 1B. I'm banking on Iron Man 3 or the Hobbit, or both. My puncher's chance film for 1B will be Lone Ranger, simply because of Johnny Depp and Disney's involvement. This might be their next "Pirates of the Caribbean" franchise.

Lone Ranger has "troubled flop" buzz. There's no way it gets anywhere close to $1 B. It and Pacific Rim are currently neck and neck on which film will be viewed as the big Summer flop.

Catching Fire will have a significantly expanded foreign take. We've seen this happen with sequels before...The Dark Knight Rises, Skyfall, Avengers, Transformers: Dark of the Moon, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Twilight: New Moon, all examples of HUGE increases in foreign gross from one movie to another.

[eddy]

Originally Posted by Mr. Dent

Huh? How do you calculate hype into a BO OW prediction exactly? Is there any math involved at all?

They look at stuff like activity on twitter, youtube views, facebook activity, social media stuff.

The amount of facebook hype about The Hunger Games was OUT OF THIS WORLD pre-release.

[ken smith]

If Skyfall grossed 1.1 billion$, then Iron Man 3 can gross 1.2 billion$

[Mr. Dent]

That's really not good logic...

[Tony Stark]

Originally Posted by KangConquers

Lone Ranger has "troubled flop" buzz. There's no way it gets anywhere close to $1 B. It and Pacific Rim are currently neck and neck on which film will be viewed as the big Summer flop.

Catching Fire will have a significantly expanded foreign take. We've seen this happen with sequels before...The Dark Knight Rises, Skyfall, Avengers, Transformers: Dark of the Moon, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Twilight: New Moon, all examples of HUGE increases in foreign gross from one movie to another.

Bond films have always had a huge foreign take, as well as the Potter films. If there's one example of increasing foreign take from an American made film it would be the Twilight series, and 500M was the highest. Now if CF can make it there it can obviously make a billion.

Perhaps Lone Ranger will be a flop, I don't know yet. I've liked everything I've seen so far out of it, and foreign audiences love Johnny Depp. I'm just picking a dark horse, some film that no one would expect. I think that one has potential.