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View Poll Results: What do YOU think Thor Dark World will do?
500 Million 8 7.08%
550 Million 10 8.85%
600 Million 10 8.85%
650 Million 10 8.85%
700 Million 17 15.04%
750 Million 16 14.16%
800 Million 22 19.47%
850 Million 8 7.08%
900 Million 3 2.65%
950 Million 1 0.88%
1 Billion plus 8 7.08%
Voters: 113. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 08-07-2013, 07:58 PM   #251
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

450 million for a C-List suuperhero isn't alot?

It's more than any superhero film short of IM, Spider, Supes, and Batman .

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Old 08-07-2013, 08:01 PM   #252
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

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450 million for a C-List suuperhero isn't alot?

It's more than any superhero film short of IM, Spider, Supes, and Batman .
Yeah, it did quite well; specially if we consider its OS b.o., which was similar to Iron Man's.

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Old 08-07-2013, 08:07 PM   #253
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

I say it makes 700-900m.....I think the hunger games sequel will hurt it a bit

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Old 08-07-2013, 08:36 PM   #254
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

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Originally Posted by BigThor View Post
450 million for a C-List suuperhero isn't alot?

It's more than any superhero film short of IM, Spider, Supes, and Batman .
There is also Last Stand.

If it is as awesome as it looks, I just hope it makes a enough for a strong sequel.

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Old 08-07-2013, 09:57 PM   #255
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

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Originally Posted by DarthSkywalker View Post
There is also Last Stand.

If it is as awesome as it looks, I just hope it makes a enough for a strong sequel.
Yeah but that was a sequel. And the X-Men were more popular than Thor.

I predict $600-800 M.

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Old 08-07-2013, 10:31 PM   #256
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

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Originally Posted by jacobed View Post
No way this makes more than a billion. Thor was easily my favorite Marvel Studios movie but it didn't really make all that much and I don't think this one will make much more. It'll get the Avengers boost on top of the fact that it looks damn good but haha no won't come close to a billion
It did alright, it made around 450 million. However, I don't think many people know this. Batman Begins made about 300 million, then when The Dark Knight came out it made a little over a billion, a vast improvement from what Batman Begins made. I can believe that Thor can go from 450 to 1 billion, especially with the success from the Avengers.

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Old 08-08-2013, 12:45 AM   #257
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

Seeing the 2nd trailer:
Domestic - $180 to $240 million
Worldwide - $500 to $650 million

I don't really see Thor 2 performing as huge as the Iron Man 3 film. I think IR3 already got the most of the so-called "Avengers boost" and I don't feel too good about the November release-date for this film. Superman cannot even get 700 million worldwide with all the buzz/marketing it got. I don't think Thor 2 will get $700million too.

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Old 08-08-2013, 01:21 AM   #258
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

I am going with 600-650 range for now. Closer to 600 thought.

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Old 08-08-2013, 09:10 AM   #259
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

Quote:
Originally Posted by psylockolussus View Post
I don't really see Thor 2 performing as huge as the Iron Man 3 film. I think IR3 already got the most of the so-called "Avengers boost" and I don't feel too good about the November release-date for this film.
The "Avengers boost" isn't a one and done can of Nitrus Oxide for films. The Avengers got people interested in these characters, they aren't just going to stop being interested after seeing and liking IM3.

Most of the people who saw The Avengers saw IM3, especially overseas. I see no reason why most of that group wouldn't come out again to see what Thor & Loki do next.

Why do you keep saying November isn't a good release date?
Maybe you should take a look at some facts:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/monthly...ew=releasedate

Quote:
Superman cannot even get 700 million worldwide with all the buzz/marketing it got. I don't think Thor 2 will get $700million too.
What Superman can or can't do at the box office has zero impact or relevance to what Thor can do. I think this year quite readily proves the GA doesn't care what characters are supposedly A, B, or Z list.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jacobed View Post
No way this makes more than a billion. Thor was easily my favorite Marvel Studios movie but it didn't really make all that much and I don't think this one will make much more. It'll get the Avengers boost on top of the fact that it looks damn good but haha no won't come close to a billion
I don't see it as a "how much can it increase over THOR", it's not a sequel to THOR, it's a sequel to The Avengers featuring two of it's lead characters. So the actual question is "how much of The Avengers audience can it hold onto?"

Iron Man almost doubled it's haul from 2 to 3, and damn near all the overseas audience turned out for it.

IM2 -- US $312 / Int - $311m / WW $623
TA -- US $623 / Int - $888m / WW $1,511
IM3 -- Us $407 / Int - $804 / WW $1,211

Looking at those numbers, what seems so unlikely about my prediction?:
TDW -- US $250m-300m / OS $600m-700m / WW - $850m-$1bn

If it's competition with HG I'll point out two things:
1) a) The first Hunger Games had absolutely no competition before it's release, and none for 6 weeks after (The Avengers). There was nothing else to go see and a big fuss was being made about HG, so people went to see it.

HG:CF isn't going to hold onto all that [US] audience because Thor & The Hobbit are competition for it as much as it is for them (and because not everyone was wowed by the first).


2) Look at last Nov/Dec with huge films in nearly identical spots to this year:
Skyfall ($300m/$800m/$1bn), Twilight ($292m/$537m/$829m) The Hobbit:AUJ ($300m/$700m/$1bn)
Thor -- THG:CF -- The HobbitOS --

They can easily co-exist.

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Old 08-08-2013, 09:23 AM   #260
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

Quote:
Originally Posted by Moridin View Post
The "Avengers boost" isn't a one and done can of Nitrus Oxide for films. The Avengers got people interested in these characters, they aren't just going to stop being interested after seeing and liking IM3.

Most of the people who saw The Avengers saw IM3, especially overseas. I see no reason why most of that group wouldn't come out again to see what Thor & Loki do next.

Why do you keep saying November isn't a good release date?
Maybe you should take a look at some facts:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/monthly...ew=releasedate



What Superman can or can't do at the box office has zero impact or relevance to what Thor can do. I think this year quite readily proves the GA doesn't care what characters are supposedly A, B, or Z list.



I don't see it as a "how much can it increase over THOR", it's not a sequel to THOR, it's a sequel to The Avengers featuring two of it's lead characters. So the actual question is "how much of The Avengers audience can it hold onto?"

Iron Man almost doubled it's haul from 2 to 3, and damn near all the overseas audience turned out for it.

IM2 -- US $312 / Int - $311m / WW $623
TA -- US $623 / Int - $888m / WW $1,511
IM3 -- Us $407 / Int - $804 / WW $1,211

Looking at those numbers, what seems so unlikely about my prediction?:
TDW -- US $250m-300m / OS $600m-700m / WW - $850m-$1bn

If it's competition with HG I'll point out two things:
1) a) The first Hunger Games had absolutely no competition before it's release, and none for 6 weeks after (The Avengers). There was nothing else to go see and a big fuss was being made about HG, so people went to see it.

HG:CF isn't going to hold onto all that [US] audience because Thor & The Hobbit are competition for it as much as it is for them (and because not everyone was wowed by the first).


2) Look at last Nov/Dec with huge films in nearly identical spots to this year:
Skyfall ($300m/$800m/$1bn), Twilight ($292m/$537m/$829m) The Hobbit:AUJ ($300m/$700m/$1bn)
Thor -- THG:CF -- The HobbitOS --

They can easily co-exist.
Great post. Btw, psylockolussus always downplays the b.o. potential of other super hero movies/studios, with the exception of the precious fox's x-men.

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Old 08-08-2013, 06:08 PM   #261
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

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Great post. Btw, psylockolussus always downplays the b.o. potential of other super hero movies/studios, with the exception of the precious fox's x-men.
I noticed that too.

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Old 08-08-2013, 09:11 PM   #262
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

Thats not true, I gave The Wolverine's opening weekend a 40 to 60 million range with the final domestic box-office run of 120 to 160 million. And it looks like the movie might only get $130 million in the U.S. Check the box-office thread of The Wolverine. And I also don't think releasing a X-Force movie is a good idea.

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Old 08-08-2013, 09:20 PM   #263
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

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Originally Posted by DarthSkywalker View Post
There is also Last Stand.

If it is as awesome as it looks, I just hope it makes a enough for a strong sequel.
Oh I almost forgot...

THOR made more than ANY X-Men movie except for Last Stand, more than MOST Superman films, and some Bat films.

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Old 08-08-2013, 09:31 PM   #264
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

^Not if you inflate their box-office numbers.

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Old 08-08-2013, 09:44 PM   #265
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

If you're gonna inflate the box office you might as well inflate the budget, so it's pointless.

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Old 08-08-2013, 09:50 PM   #266
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

Quote:
Originally Posted by psylockolussus View Post
Seeing the 2nd trailer:
Domestic - $180 to $240 million
Worldwide - $500 to $650 million

I don't really see Thor 2 performing as huge as the Iron Man 3 film. I think IR3 already got the most of the so-called "Avengers boost" and I don't feel too good about the November release-date for this film. Superman cannot even get 700 million worldwide with all the buzz/marketing it got. I don't think Thor 2 will get $700million too.
You predicted that MOS would get around $500 million, despite the buzz and marketing. It got way more than that.

Plus, IM3 outgrossed both Superman and Spider-man so it wouldn't be that surprising if Thor 2 outgrossed MOS.

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But Captain America: The Winter Soldier wins. Everything. My first born son, even. It's the unicorn of the MCU.
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Old 08-08-2013, 10:08 PM   #267
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

People are never going stop underestimating Marvel Studios, I'm not talking about psylockolussus just MCU doubters in general.

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Old 08-08-2013, 10:23 PM   #268
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

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People are never going stop underestimating Marvel Studios, I'm not talking about psylockolussus just MCU doubters in general.
The funny thing is, before IM3 came out some people doubted it would make $1 billion and it made more than that. Yet they say that Thor 2 will struggle to make $700 million because it doesn't have RDJ.

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Old 08-08-2013, 10:31 PM   #269
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

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Originally Posted by Ms. Marvel View Post
You predicted that MOS would get around $500 million, despite the buzz and marketing. It got way more than that.

Plus, IM3 outgrossed both Superman and Spider-man so it wouldn't be that surprising if Thor 2 outgrossed MOS.
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People are never going stop underestimating Marvel Studios, I'm not talking about psylockolussus just MCU doubters in general.
Agreed on both.

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Old 08-08-2013, 10:38 PM   #270
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

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You predicted that MOS would get around $500 million, despite the buzz and marketing. It got way more than that.

Plus, IM3 outgrossed both Superman and Spider-man so it wouldn't be that surprising if Thor 2 outgrossed MOS.
We'll see. I maybe wrong with MOS but don't forget, it was also way off from people's prediction here with more than 800 million.

My original prediction for Thor 2 was between 700 to 750 million. But given by the buzz of the film right now, how Man of Steel performed at the box-office and the 2nd trailer, I lowered it to $650 million. Though, my prediction could still change.

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Old 08-08-2013, 11:03 PM   #271
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

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The funny thing is, before IM3 came out some people doubted it would make $1 billion and it made more than that. Yet they say that Thor 2 will struggle to make $700 million because it doesn't have RDJ.
Some people were saying IM3 wasn't going to make more than IM2 and it pretty much doubled it's gross.

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Old 08-08-2013, 11:24 PM   #272
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

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Some people were saying IM3 wasn't going to make more than IM2 and it pretty much doubled it's gross.
Apparently IM2 was so bad, TA couldn't get rid of the bad taste it left in the audience's mouth, so IM3 would suffer.

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Old 08-08-2013, 11:39 PM   #273
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

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If you're gonna inflate the box office you might as well inflate the budget, so it's pointless.
Budget inflation doesn't exist.

But adjusted box-office numbers do exist. If Batman Begins had the lowest attendance for a Batman movie. What about Thor if you compare it to the top-three grossing X-Men, Batman and Superman films.

Its not really that right to brag about Thor's worldwide gross earning more than the worldwide gross of most X-Men's, Superman's and Batman's films when we know the price for movie tickets increases every year and there's a big price difference when it comes to 2D/3D tickets

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Old 08-08-2013, 11:43 PM   #274
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

Quote:
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Budget inflation doesn't exist.

But adjusted box-office numbers do exist. If Batman Begins had the lowest attendance for a Batman movie. What about Thor if you compare it to the top-three grossing X-Men, Batman and Superman films.

Its not really that right to brag about Thor's worldwide gross earning more than the worldwide gross of most X-Men's, Superman's and Batman's film when we know the price for movie tickets increases every year and there's a big price difference when it comes to 2D/3D tickets
It IS because a few years ago Thor was nowhere near as well known as those guys who were popular even before their films. The X-Men, Batman, and Superman have had countless tv shows and large scale notoriety for decades now.

So for Thor to get anywhere near those films is a feat in itself, he wasn't even FF level and he blew past those films' grosses.

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Old 08-09-2013, 12:26 AM   #275
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

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It IS because a few years ago Thor was nowhere near as well known as those guys who were popular even before their films. The X-Men, Batman, and Superman have had countless tv shows and large scale notoriety for decades now.

So for Thor to get anywhere near those films is a feat in itself, he wasn't even FF level and he blew past those films' grosses.
Yeah I get that but reading your post, you made it sound like Thor outgrossed the other X-Men/Superman/Batman films without looking the other factors such as price inflation and there's a big gap between those films and Thor (well except for Origins).

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