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View Poll Results: What do YOU think Thor Dark World will do?
500 Million 8 7.08%
550 Million 10 8.85%
600 Million 10 8.85%
650 Million 10 8.85%
700 Million 17 15.04%
750 Million 16 14.16%
800 Million 22 19.47%
850 Million 8 7.08%
900 Million 3 2.65%
950 Million 1 0.88%
1 Billion plus 8 7.08%
Voters: 113. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 09-16-2013, 08:32 PM   #351
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

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Originally Posted by BigThor View Post
Yeah but like I said, The Avengers tracked at 125M a month before release only to over 80M more than predicted. Man of Steel tracked at around 75-85M well before it's release and it almost doubled that number.

All I'm saying is it's way too early to count out a 130M + opening going by those fairly recent examples.
In the case of MOS, The Tickets sold at Walmart was a big part of the doubling of those predictions.


Last edited by Mysteryman; 09-16-2013 at 08:40 PM.
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Old 09-16-2013, 09:46 PM   #352
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

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In the case of MOS, The Tickets sold at Walmart was a big part of the doubling of those predictions.
MOS's Walmart sales only accounted for $12 million and that money wasn't even added to the weekend take by the studio. WB decided to count the Thursday Walmart shows separately. That left MOS's OW total at $116M.

Another consideration is that those tickets were sold directly to Walmart, which then tried to resell them to its customers and workers. Walmart wasn't able to sell all the tickets so it had to eat the cost. WB, of course, kept the $12M even though all those seats were not filled. Therefore MOS's ultimate box office take was somewhat inflated by the price of those unsold tickets. That was a sweet deal for WB, but Walmart probably won't make that mistake again.

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Old 09-16-2013, 10:10 PM   #353
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

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Not sure if anyone cares or not, but Boxoffice.com is predicting a $91 Million opening weekend and a $235 Million total in N.A.


http://www.boxoffice.com/statistics/...rm_predictions
Sounds about right. I think the big boost for this and Cap is going to come from the foreign markets.

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Old 09-17-2013, 12:44 AM   #354
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

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Sounds about right. I think the big boost for this and Cap is going to come from the foreign markets.
I think that BO is underestimating TDW a bit. Thor had a 2.8 multiplier ($181M total n a $65M OW), but they're predicting a 2.5 for TDW. Marvel films tend to take off like rockets, making most of their money in the first 2-3 weeks, so the competition isn't as much of a problem as some may think. If TDW manages the same multiplier as Thor and has the OW predicted, it will do north of $250M domestic.

BO also under-predicts generally because they're rather conservative. This far out, they're probably a good $10-$20 million under what the film will actually make on opening weekend.

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Old 09-17-2013, 02:20 AM   #355
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

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Thor had a 2.8 multiplier ($181M total n a $65M OW), but they're predicting a 2.5 for TDW.
They really think that Hunger Games will cut it`s legs so short it will fall like a rock. Many expect HG to destroy everything in us bo till new hobbit with only those with completely different target audience (Frozen) to survive.

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Old 09-17-2013, 12:28 PM   #356
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

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I think that BO is underestimating TDW a bit. Thor had a 2.8 multiplier ($181M total n a $65M OW), but they're predicting a 2.5 for TDW. Marvel films tend to take off like rockets, making most of their money in the first 2-3 weeks, so the competition isn't as much of a problem as some may think. If TDW manages the same multiplier as Thor and has the OW predicted, it will do north of $250M domestic.

BO also under-predicts generally because they're rather conservative. This far out, they're probably a good $10-$20 million under what the film will actually make on opening weekend.
$250 M is possible. But Hunger Games: Catching Fire is going to be the highest grossing film of the year, domestically. I think that ensures that $300 M is out of the question.

I see both Thor and Cap getting maybe 25% domestic boosts, and 75% foreign boosts.

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Old 09-17-2013, 05:48 PM   #357
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

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Originally Posted by Mysteryman View Post
In the case of MOS, The Tickets sold at Walmart was a big part of the doubling of those predictions.
Without the Walmart ticket sales MOS still grossed 116M in it's opening weekend well above 75-85M.

Quote:
Originally Posted by KangConquers View Post
$250 M is possible. But Hunger Games: Catching Fire is going to be the highest grossing film of the year, domestically. I think that ensures that $300 M is out of the question.

I see both Thor and Cap getting maybe 25% domestic boosts, and 75% foreign boosts.
Thor will already be well above the 200M mark before HG:CF comes out, so I still think it's possible to gross 275-300M.

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Old 09-17-2013, 06:09 PM   #358
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

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Originally Posted by KangConquers View Post
But Hunger Games: Catching Fire is going to be the highest grossing film of the year, domestically.
I think CF will drop from THG, sub-$400m, so I don't think it'll catch IM3.

I won't rule out $300m US for Thor either. They can co-exist pretty easily.

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Old 09-18-2013, 08:18 PM   #359
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

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I think CF will drop from THG, sub-$400m, so I don't think it'll catch IM3.

I won't rule out $300m US for Thor either. They can co-exist pretty easily.
CF is going to top THG pretty easily .

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Old 09-18-2013, 08:21 PM   #360
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

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Without the Walmart ticket sales MOS still grossed 116M in it's opening weekend well above 75-85M.



Thor will already be well above the 200M mark before HG:CF comes out, so I still think it's possible to gross 275-300M.
How much do you think TDW will have grossed by the time CF comes out?

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Old 09-18-2013, 09:51 PM   #361
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

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How much do you think TDW will have grossed by the time CF comes out?
Somewhere around 240 million, assuming it does a 100M + opening weekend which it WILL.

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Old 09-19-2013, 11:24 AM   #362
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

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CF is going to top THG pretty easily .
Worldwide, sure. Strictly US (which is what I was talking about), highly unlikely.

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Old 09-19-2013, 12:34 PM   #363
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

I don't think Catching Fire is going to do quite as well as the first in the U.S (I'm predicting 375-380mil) but that will be enough to easily beat Thor domestically. Internationally I think Catching Fire will explode Twilight style and do over 400mil. I think Thor will struggle to reach 200mil right now. Thor should do great internationally though, it's right up the international audiences alley. I might change my mind as it gets closer as I always do. I could see myself predicting higher as it gets closer.

I'm wrong most of the time anyway but those are just my thoughts.

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Old 09-19-2013, 01:09 PM   #364
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

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I don't think Catching Fire is going to do quite as well as the first in the U.S (I'm predicting 375-380mil) but that will be enough to easily beat Thor domestically. Internationally I think Catching Fire will explode Twilight style and do over 400mil. I think Thor will struggle to reach 200mil right now. Thor should do great internationally though, it's right up the international audiences alley. I might change my mind as it gets closer as I always do. I could see myself predicting higher as it gets closer.

I'm wrong most of the time anyway but those are just my thoughts.
There's nothing wrong with that, I can see where you're coming from.

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Old 09-19-2013, 01:37 PM   #365
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

Personally I don't think anyone should be worried about Catching Fire. It's not like it comes out the weekend after Thor 2. It's two weeks after and a film like Thor would already have really big drops by that point.

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Old 09-19-2013, 02:15 PM   #366
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

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Personally I don't think anyone should be worried about Catching Fire. It's not like it comes out the weekend after Thor 2. It's two weeks after and a film like Thor would already have really big drops by that point.
Very true

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Old 09-19-2013, 04:27 PM   #367
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

yeah, people will go see Thor. I'd bet it makes 70% of it's total in the US within the first week or so

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Old 09-19-2013, 06:29 PM   #368
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

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Worldwide, sure. Strictly US (which is what I was talking about), highly unlikely.
Why unlikely?

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Old 09-20-2013, 07:24 PM   #369
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

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yeah, people will go see Thor. I'd bet it makes 70% of it's total in the US within the first week or so
Make the first "two" week, don't think it's gonna make that much of it's US total in just one week.

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Old 09-20-2013, 08:37 PM   #370
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

I still think it will do well over 100 Million its first weekend.
How much is still the question, and by the end of weekend 2 we should be at a little over 200 million...
As for week 3 when Catching fire opens not every screen will be taken up, nor will Thor's seats be empty , it could rake in another 25 to 30 million easily...It will get lots of repeat viewings...
I still think it tops out at about 300 million domestically...

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Old 09-21-2013, 08:27 PM   #371
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

Maybe the movie will pull a James Bond 23 and hit 300mil (I was certainly shocked that SkyFall did that well) but right now I don't see why it would have nearly twice the percentage jump Iron Man 3 had. Overseas I see a huge jump and I wouldn't be surprised if it did better than Catching Fire overseas honestly but I don't see the bases for a near 60% jump domestically when the most popular character didn't get that sort of jump.

If Iron Man 3 had hit 500mil I'd be on that 300mil bandwagon for The Dark World.

Well I almost never rule anything out so I'm definitely not ruling out 300mil. As I said I want to see what the reviews and buzz are like in late October and early November before even thinking about going above 235mil at best.

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Old 09-22-2013, 01:10 PM   #372
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

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Maybe the movie will pull a James Bond 23 and hit 300mil (I was certainly shocked that SkyFall did that well) but right now I don't see why it would have nearly twice the percentage jump Iron Man 3 had. Overseas I see a huge jump and I wouldn't be surprised if it did better than Catching Fire overseas honestly but I don't see the bases for a near 60% jump domestically when the most popular character didn't get that sort of jump.

If Iron Man 3 had hit 500mil I'd be on that 300mil bandwagon for The Dark World.

Well I almost never rule anything out so I'm definitely not ruling out 300mil. As I said I want to see what the reviews and buzz are like in late October and early November before even thinking about going above 235mil at best.
You're right, time will most definately tell we'll know more in late October.

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Old 09-27-2013, 01:17 AM   #373
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

World Wide:850m

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Old 09-27-2013, 03:23 AM   #374
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World Wide:850m
That's good enough for me.

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Old 09-27-2013, 03:28 AM   #375
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

I'm just throwing that out there. I really like to make my guesses after the first two weeks.

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