Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread

[acedrake]

People will come guys. They'll come to the theaters for reasons they can't even fathom. They'll turn up in droves not knowing for sure why they're doing it. They'll arrive at the theaters as innocent as children, longing for the past. It's only $14 per person. They'll pass over the money without even thinking about it: for it is money they have and peace they lack. And they'll walk out to their seats; sit in shirtsleeves on a perfect afternoon. They'll find they have reserved seats somewhere along one of row seats, where they sat when they were children and cheered their heroes. And they'll watch the movie and it'll be as if they dipped themselves in magic waters. The memories will be so thick they'll have to brush them away from their faces. People will come guys. The one constant through all the years, guys, is Superman. America has rolled by like an army of steamrollers. It has been erased like a blackboard, rebuilt and erased again. But Superman has marked the time. Superman: it's a part of our past, guys. It reminds of us of all that once was good and it could be again. Oh... people will come guys. People will most definitely come.

"Terence Mann, Field of dreams"
The return of superman and the magic he brought to us so many years ago

[sf2]

Originally Posted by acedrake

I am fairly certain that The Man of Steel is a movie with only two outcomes. Either it fails miserably or it will do massively well at the BO over a Bill. Now all we need really is a runaway ad machine to cement in the mind of the audience and fans that the movie is a new and exciting take on The Man of Steel

You sure it will not get a lukewarm response like SR? I think the possible is just as big.

[sf2]

Originally Posted by acedrake

People will come guys. They'll come to the theaters for reasons they can't even fathom. They'll turn up in droves not knowing for sure why they're doing it. They'll arrive at the theaters as innocent as children, longing for the past. It's only $14 per person. They'll pass over the money without even thinking about it: for it is money they have and peace they lack. And they'll walk out to their seats; sit in shirtsleeves on a perfect afternoon. They'll find they have reserved seats somewhere along one of row seats, where they sat when they were children and cheered their heroes. And they'll watch the movie and it'll be as if they dipped themselves in magic waters. The memories will be so thick they'll have to brush them away from their faces. People will come guys. The one constant through all the years, guys, is Superman. America has rolled by like an army of steamrollers. It has been erased like a blackboard, rebuilt and erased again. But Superman has marked the time. Superman: it's a part of our past, guys. It reminds of us of all that once was good and it could be again. Oh... people will come guys. People will most definitely come.

"Terence Mann, Field of dreams"
The return of superman and the magic he brought to us so many years ago

A bit melodramatic, but nice write-up. Superman hasn’t earned as the ‘branded’ product in the movie industry like batman, spidey, ironman or transformers. I think American wouldn’t go into a movie because it’ called MOS. The magic? Most characters can fly and have superpowers nowadays. They do look super cool and magical too on screen. It’s mostly depends on the story itself and not so much about the American culture and the name of Superman. Anyway, I think most of us agree that IM will rule this year.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Originally Posted by acedrake

I am fairly certain that The Man of Steel is a movie with only two outcomes. Either it fails miserably or it will do massively well at the BO over a Bill. Now all we need really is a runaway ad machine to cement in the mind of the audience and fans that the movie is a new and exciting take on The Man of Steel

I am fairly certain that the all or nothing attitude fanboys display is utterly freakin ridiculous.

I mean how can you even post something as ridiculous as that? There are plenty of very well liked films that have made well under a billion dollars.

And a lot of marketing does not guarantee a billion if it did Tron Legacy would have made two bil because they were shoving that movie down our throats for over a year.

[Bruce Malone]

Well this is what happens when BO threads are made months ahead of when the movie actually comes out.

In reality unless it is a direct sequel to a very popular film, you are only able to gauge the upcoming success level maybe about a month ahead of time at most. Otherwise you're just guessing and grasping at straws.

[Dr.]

Originally Posted by acedrake

I am fairly certain that The Man of Steel is a movie with only two outcomes. Either it fails miserably or it will do massively well at the BO over a Bill(ion).

There are only 10 types of people in the world. Those who reduce everything to binary opposites and those who don’t.

In addition to the unmitigated bomb or the +$1B monster that you mention, MOS might earn:

* in the $450M range. Popularity-wise, that’s modestly respectable - though only breakeven financially.
* in the $600M range. A bona fide hit. Sequels or a JL spinoff all but certain.
* in the $800 range. This is (legitimately) blockbuster territory - though still sub $1B.
* or pretty much any box-office scenario that is possible to imagine.

[Tony Stark]

Again, the biggest problem facing MoS is it's placement in the dreaded mid June release where it may become an also ran. This has nothing to do with the quality of the film, just Warner's bad decision making.

I take you back to Batman Begins. I'd say that most people think that's one of the best comic films out there, some even prefer it to The Dark Knight. It only grossed 205M domestic and 374 world wide. Now adjusting for inflation that's over 400M WW. Granted it was having to fight the stigma of the horrible Schumaker films.

Still, other than Pixar animated films, June is a ash heap of forgotten films.

[RachelDawes]

^Reaching blockbuster status in a dead month? This looks like a job for...Superman!

[Marvin]

I think Ironman's performance this year will surprise people. American audiences have a way about sequels.

Pirates being a good example. The momentum of the first catapults the first sequel into the franchises highest heights. And when that one fails to capture the magic of the original, or down right sucks, the second sequel always falls short of that first sequel at the domestic(and sometimes world) box office, improved or not.

It doesn't always happen, see LOTR, but it often does, especially when the first sequel is a let down. See Matrix trilogy, spiderman trilogy, to a degree Transformers and some others. The only way out of that situation is if the third promises a huge Starwars prequelesque reveal/payoff. Not to mention the over saturation element at that point.

I see IM3 falling short of expectations at the box office. The wild card of course being, this, a post Avengers(the true Ironman sequel) world. Cause had avengers not come out, this would be a foregone conclusion.

[Smegger56]

Originally Posted by Tony Stark

Again, the biggest problem facing MoS is it's placement in the dreaded mid June release where it may become an also ran. This has nothing to do with the quality of the film, just Warner's bad decision making.

I take you back to Batman Begins. I'd say that most people think that's one of the best comic films out there, some even prefer it to The Dark Knight. It only grossed 205M domestic and 374 world wide. Now adjusting for inflation that's over 400M WW. Granted it was having to fight the stigma of the horrible Schumaker films.

Still, other than Pixar animated films, June is a ash heap of forgotten films.

To be fair with BB, that was coming after (granted, 8 years) Batman & Robin. Now, MOS is coming after SR, but with the marketing pushing Nolans name and the 'Dark Knight Trilogy' connections, I don't think it will do that bad in that slot.

[FilmNerdJamie]

Originally Posted by Marvin

I think Ironman's performance this year will surprise people. American audiences have a way about sequels.

Pirates being a good example. The momentum of the first catapults the first sequel into the franchises highest heights. And when that one fails to capture the magic of the original, or down right sucks, the second sequel always falls short of that first sequel at the domestic(and sometimes world) box office, improved or not.

It doesn't always happen, see LOTR, but it often does, especially when the first sequel is a let down. See Matrix trilogy, spiderman trilogy, to a degree Transformers and some others. The only way out of that situation is if the third promises a huge Starwars prequelesque reveal/payoff. Not to mention the over saturation element at that point.

I see IM3 falling short of expectations at the box office. The wild card of course being, this, a post Avengers(the true Ironman sequel) world. Cause had avengers not come out, this would be a foregone conclusion.

Couldn't agree more.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Originally Posted by Tony Stark

Again, the biggest problem facing MoS is it's placement in the dreaded mid June release where it may become an also ran. This has nothing to do with the quality of the film, just Warner's bad decision making.

I take you back to Batman Begins. I'd say that most people think that's one of the best comic films out there, some even prefer it to The Dark Knight. It only grossed 205M domestic and 374 world wide. Now adjusting for inflation that's over 400M WW. Granted it was having to fight the stigma of the horrible Schumaker films.

Still, other than Pixar animated films, June is a ash heap of forgotten films.

If June releases Huntsman can make 396mil and Prometheus can make 402mil Superman has atleast those numbers in the bag. The release date is weak though, I think they should switch it and put Pacific Rim in June and Superman in July.

[Anita18]

Originally Posted by Tony Stark

Again, the biggest problem facing MoS is it's placement in the dreaded mid June release where it may become an also ran. This has nothing to do with the quality of the film, just Warner's bad decision making.

I take you back to Batman Begins. I'd say that most people think that's one of the best comic films out there, some even prefer it to The Dark Knight. It only grossed 205M domestic and 374 world wide. Now adjusting for inflation that's over 400M WW. Granted it was having to fight the stigma of the horrible Schumaker films.

Still, other than Pixar animated films, June is a ash heap of forgotten films.

That was 2005. In 2012, Hunger Games came out in MARCH, (you'd really have to try to get a deader month) and got pretty much as many admissions as TDKR.

Given how many blockbusters are coming out now, they have to be spread out, and the ability for a movie to make lots of money is spread out over the year too. Maybe not Avengers level, but respectable.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Eh, people always say that about June and nothing in June that isn't Pixar or July 4th related ever becomes a mega blockbuster in these modern times. March had 300 and then Alice in Wonderland before Hunger Games. I say that MOS is doing extremely well if it hits 215mil in that bad slot.

[Ita-KalEl]

i would say a similar performance to the amazing spiderman. So enough successful for everyone

[mclay18]

Originally Posted by Ita-KalEl

i would say a similar performance to the amazing spiderman. So enough successful for everyone

I hope it does a LOT better than ASM did, domestically. Words can't describe how disappointed I was with that film. MOS seems to be hitting most of the sweet spots ASM wanted to but couldn't. Now, if only Disney didn't schedule that Lone Ranger pic for July 3rd...

I still wished WB had the sense to move MOS up a few months when they had the chance last year. March 1 or April 5 would've been excellent territory for it to rack up a lot of money.

[Project862006]

and march wasn't a blockbuster month till 300

[hopefuldreamer]

I think it's really hard to judge based on past films performances, because Superhero films are at a very different place than they were... They are at the height of popularity, they are no longer dismissed as silly, and are in general making more money out of people who would never have gone to see them years ago.

Yeah, people weren't impressed by SR. But I almost don't think that's a downside - I don't think anyone is going 'ah, it'll be just like that other one and suck'... As 'Ted' proved, it's become a pop culture joke how widely excepted it is that SR was a bad movie, so it's obvious this will be totally different.

Besides, anyone watching the trailer/ looking at posters or images can see that, and from what I've heard there is a lot of positive buzz from the GA.

Superman's name pulled in reasonable numbers for SR.

Imagine how much more we can do with Superman's name + an actually good film + Nolan's name + the height of Superhero film popularity.

[THOR]

I expect a $75 million opening weekend, $275 million dollar domestic gross and a $500 million total world wide gross for this movie... Hopefully I am way wrong and this movie makes enough $$$ to green light sequels and a great Justice League film...

[GreenKToo]

I will say that i think the lone ranger will be a BIG disapppintment. Thank you captain obvious. Thought i'd save you guys the trouble lol.

[FilmNerdJamie]

God bless, GreenKToo.

[GreenKToo]

Lol. I need all the blessings I can get. Got a wild wild west vibe from the trailer. Depp's name will bring some butts in at first, but I think it will end up being a massive turkey IF that trailer is any indication.

[GreenKToo]

As for mos, i think it opens at a modest 85 to 95 opening, wom kicks in, and it has staying power. 280 to 310 mill dom. ( all dependent on how good the story and action is)

[Liam_H]

I wouldn't call that type of opening modest.

[GreenKToo]

Well, when you have alot of other cb films opening from 120 to 150 mill, that would be modest for supes. Spiderman, tdk, avengers etc.