Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread

[Liam_H]

And those were established franchise movies. MOS is starting from scratch. To open that high would be great already.

[GreenKToo]

Originally Posted by Liam_H

And those were established franchise movies. MOS is starting from scratch. To open that high would be great already.

Oh I agree, that figure I threw out there would be great. I just dont think it will open as big as some here think.

[sf2]

Still no confidence in WB. Why they will get it right this time when they fail the last 20+years? The story may be poor. U know like immortals.

[Excelsior.]

Originally Posted by sf2

Still no confidence in WB. Why they will get it right this time when they fail the last 20+years? The story may be poor. U know like immortals.

Because if one movie from a completely different creative team has a poor story, it only stands to reason that a completely different film by a different team of collaborators will have a crap story as well.

[mjbull23]

This movie will pull somewhere in the neighborhood of 400-500 mil domestically and take in another 150 mil internationally, which would put it in the 700 mil neighborhood. Which would be fantastic, and almost certainly guarantee another installment.

On the other hand, if it fails to reach 500 mil worldwide, then I think Superman may be shelved from Cinematic release for quite some time. shudder to think.

[GENERAL RAAM582]

600-800 million, voted for the middle.

[EtherMagic]

Originally Posted by mjbull23

This movie will pull somewhere in the neighborhood of 400-500 mil domestically and take in another 150 mil internationally, which would put it in the 700 mil neighborhood. Which would be fantastic, and almost certainly guarantee another installment.

On the other hand, if it fails to reach 500 mil worldwide, then I think Superman may be shelved from Cinematic release for quite some time. shudder to think.

Thor did 450 Mill and cost 25 mil less then MOS to film, and Thor is getting a sequel. Just look at Green Lantern, grossed only 219 mil world wide and WB claimed at one point that it was getting a sequel, even though it did so bad.


Point is WB is desperate at the moment, Zack Snyder already stated that he is doing what he could to set WB up for the JL movie (in less suttle talk), so from this it is quite obvious that MOS will be leading into JL. Even if MOS does what Thor did at $450 mil, it will easilly get a sequel. It will get a sequel at $400 Mil, mainly because it will be connected to JL movie.


I do find it funny that some on here feel as if MOS will be seperate from the JL movie, stating Henry will not be involved in JL, and that there will be a totally different Sups in that movie. All I gotta say is thank the comic gods for that interview a couple weeks back with Zack Snyder stating that he is doing his what he needs to to to help WB set up for JL (I am Paraphrasing here).


There is NO WAY IN HE11 that WB will change the face of Sups just 2 years after releasing MOS, there is already a he11 storm going on from some who are ticked off that Brandon Routh is not sups in MOS, and this is 7 yrs after SR was released! Imagine how confussed people would be if Henry was not Sups in a JL movie???

[Kryptonian Warrior]

Originally Posted by GreenKToo

Oh I agree, that figure I threw out there would be great. I just dont think it will open as big as some here think.

There again, I think it all depends on how they market the movie. If they market it as a badass action/adventure flick and show a bunch of TV Spots, then people will come out in droves. It's all about the content of the TV Spots, how frequently they are shown,the time slots they are shown in and what channels they are shown on , IMO. They absolutely MUST reach the 18-49 year old demographic. This will be a guy's flick to be sure, but I suspect that there will be more women in attendance because, you know, he's not an ugly guy.

[Dr.]

Originally Posted by mjbull23

This movie will pull somewhere in the neighborhood of 400-500 mil domestically and take in another 150 mil internationally, which would put it in the 700 mil neighborhood. Which would be fantastic, and almost certainly guarantee another installment.

Your predicted ratio is somewhat extreme and unlikely. Nowadays, big movies tend to earn most of their revenues from foreign BO. Even when they don’t, the foreign doesn’t typically dip below the 35-40% range. For example, TDK ($535M/$479M) and The Hunger Games ($408M/$278M). Based on a $400-500M domestic take, your foreign estimate is a paltry ~25%.

[Marvin]

There is enough in the last trailer alone to guarantee it making more than Returns.
Guarantee.

[DarthAlani]

The trailer has generated tons of good will. They need to keep this up with a Super Bowl spot and an action packed trailer later in the year.

[Showtime]

Originally Posted by mjbull23

This movie will pull somewhere in the neighborhood of 400-500 mil domestically and take in another 150 mil internationally, which would put it in the 700 mil neighborhood. Which would be fantastic, and almost certainly guarantee another installment.

On the other hand, if it fails to reach 500 mil worldwide, then I think Superman may be shelved from Cinematic release for quite some time. shudder to think.

The math on your domestic/international ratio is a bit unbalanced.

[GreenKToo]

Honestly, I dont fault someone for predicting a 400 mill dom take, nor do I fault someone for guessing a 250 mill dom take. I think it could go either way with this film. It Could be lightning in a bottle, or it could just do ok.

[Bruce Malone]

Let's be real here TDKR with all of its hype and good reviews and being the conclusion to the TDK trilogy finished with roughly $450 m domestic, which is great but it is foolish to assume MOS could approach that right out of the the gate.

If it can get above $250 m domestic WB will be quite happy assuming international numbers are fair.

[Marvin]

If hunger games is pulling in 400 dom right out of the gate, no reason a solid Superman movie with nolan hype can't.

Truth is no one can predict what kinda business a superman film does when it's firing on all cylinders. We've simply never seen it. The same way the world had never seen the same of Batman till recently.

The fact is, how much money would a spiderman or even Iron man film pull in if they had an entire film without the super hero throwing a single punch. Seriously a spiderman film with no fighting...
It's remarkable that Superman did as well as it did on name alone.

I'll eat my shorts if the film doesn't at least cross 350.
Especially in a month with no competition.

[Liam_H]

Exactly it hardly ever happens, so chances are it won't happen here also.

[Showtime]

Originally Posted by GreenKToo

Honestly, I dont fault someone for predicting a 400 mill dom take, nor do I fault someone for guessing a 250 mill dom take. I think it could go either way with this film. It Could be lightning in a bottle, or it could just do ok.

That's not what I'm referring too. It isn't his prediction of 400Mil to 500Mil domestic, it is the fact that he then balances that out with 150Mil internationally. Those types of ratios don't exist between domestic and international.

[HighFivingMF]

Originally Posted by Bruce Malone

Let's be real here TDKR with all of its hype and good reviews and being the conclusion to the TDK trilogy finished with roughly $450 m domestic,

Well it was on track for more 'til, y'know.

[sf2]

Originally Posted by Marvin

There is enough in the last trailer alone to guarantee it making more than Returns.
Guarantee.

LOL, I believe we did say the same when we saw the 1st trailer of SR, and we predicted SR was gonna smash all the box office record. Some even said the Titanic number!!! exactly like what happening now. Yes. I still don’t have a good feeling about MOS. The good thing is I was always wrong.

[Parker Wayne]

It has Superman punching someone so that alone is going to be a reason it's going gross more than Returns.

[sf2]

Originally Posted by Parker Wayne

It has Superman punching someone so that alone is going to be a reason it's going gross more than Returns.

R u sure? Why do I see the opposite thing in the trailer? Perhaps they think to have superman being punched like sandbag and coughing out blood is more sale guarantee. superman punching someone is boring and being done. Don’t u think?

[Parker Wayne]

Nope.

[Liam_H]

Certainly not with the resources we have today. Superman showing off his abilities can be quite the spectacle. I would love it if somewhere down the line we got to see something similar to Superman vs Darkseid in the finale of JLU.

[sf2]

Originally Posted by Liam_H

Certainly not with the resources we have today. Superman showing off his abilities can be quite the spectacle. I would love it if somewhere down the line we got to see something similar to Superman vs Darkseid in the finale of JLU.

Agree. However film makers always have the different opinion. They wanna do ‘new’ things. In their mind, ‘superman punching’ has been done to death. So they think it’s cooler to do him getting punched around instead. U know, the idea of invincible being beaten down. they love this concept.

[Parker Wayne]

Nope.