Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread

[Greeneyes]

Originally Posted by manofsteel4life

Honestly feel overseas will make a killing....domestic is the one that's unpredictable. When you got a guy changing his appearance to look like superman lol....I know it's just one person but superman isn't considered out of date or corny over there, unlike here in America....

I'm from the UK and the buzz with movie loving friends is really good,not just the ones who are into comic book films,it will do a lot better than Returns did here in the UK guaranteed.I'm also thinking International will be much higher too,it just needs our American friends to get pumped for it IMO.

And I've yet to meet an American who doesn't like to get pumped

[fanboiii]

They were both earlier movies to the superhero craze which is more cemented in today's culture with the help of Avengers and TDKR making billion dollars each.

[Liam_H]

Originally Posted by metaphysician

Whether a given dollar value counts as a hit or not depends largely on the budget for the movie. Batman Begins was viewed as a pretty big success, and Superman Returns as a fairly big failure, because Batman Begins cost almost half the amount to make.

Unfair inflation of Returns budget due to pass projects. Begins was ultimately a success because of its reception.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Originally Posted by Liam_H

Unfair inflation of Returns budget due to pass projects. Begins was ultimately a success because of its reception.

Yep a sequel was on the bubble until the great DVD sales.

[Mr. Dent]

I'm thinking $250m domestic is a pretty safe bet no matter what. If the film turns out to be REALLY good then I can see it hitting around $300m...like others have said international is really hard to predict but I'm going with around $450-500m overseas.

[Showtime]

250 million is a good number. That is around Superman Returns money adjusted for inflation.

[Marvin]

Originally Posted by Showtime

250 million is a good number. That is around Superman Returns money adjusted for inflation.

MoS making as much as a luckster superman movie that was a donner remake with even less action than the original? Adjusted for inflation...

The only reason I see that possibly happening is as fallout due to Returns.
If onlly Superman had come out in 2006 with guns blazing it, like the rest of the successful properties.

[fanboiii]

I say 300+ because of Nolan factor

[sup101]

3D will help alot too.

[Excel]

3d is why I have trouble seeing under 300m. That would have selling in the ballpark of the same amount of tickets as SR. If it sells less tickets than SR, WB either totally dropped the ball marketing wise, or the film will sweep the razzies.

[Bruce_Begins]

Originally Posted by Marvin

As funny as that may be....

Returns Domestic $200 WW $391 Production Budget 270
Begins Domestic $205 WW $374 Production Budget 150
Ironman Domestic $318 WW $585 Production Budget 140
ASM Domestic $262 WW $752 Production Budget 230

3 of those were considered hits.

When MoS performs somewhere in between IronMan and ASM...

The budget of SR was around 209 mil., the 270 mil figure is not accurate, they have included the money spent on past Superman projects (JJ Abrams, McG, Ratner's) which failed to take off.

Assuming that MOS sells same number of tickets as SR -

200 mil in 2006 would be near 220 mil for 2013(approx.), add the fact that the MOS movie would be 3D, which increases the collections by about 15 %, we get around 250 mil.

[Liam_H]

I believe adjusted brings it closer to $250 million so 15% of that would bring it closer to $290 million. So $300 million domestic very much possible if its attracts the same number of people.

[Mr. Dent]

And really, it should bring in more if the film is as good as it looks.

[metaphysician]

Originally Posted by Liam_H

Unfair inflation of Returns budget due to pass projects. Begins was ultimately a success because of its reception.

While true, even Superman Returns actual budget was at least 50M more than Batman Begins. That makes a difference.

[GreenKToo]

my first guess was around 275 to 300 million dom. around 300 international...Once the next trailer hits tho, depending on the buzz, it could be even more. ( or less )

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I'll revise up to 225mil. 75miil opening and 225mil total. As I said before I might revise up when I see what WB's marketing is going to be like.

I remember when everyone said The Incredible Hulk was going to make 200mil because people were waiting for an action packed Hulk film and it got nowhere near 200mil and actually sold less tickets than the first one despite grossing slightly more than it. Nothing is guaranteed. when it comes to the boxoffice. If WB starts smartly marketing the film I will raise ny prediction. but until then I'm sticking to 225mil.

[Dr.]

Originally Posted by I SEE SPIDEY

I'll revise up to 225mil. 75miil opening and 225mil total. As I said before I might revise up when I see what WB's marketing is going to be like.

...Nothing is guaranteed. when it comes to the boxoffice. If WB starts smartly marketing the film I will raise ny prediction. but until then I'm sticking to 225mil.

It’s not all about the marketing. Sometimes, there’s an “intangible factor” - a positive buzz that the studio doesn’t control and can’t buy. It’s early days yet, but MOS seems to be on a good track in terms of the buzz.

[Bruce Malone]

I know for sure word of mouth is key. Also a film like this has to get good reviews bad reviews could easily sink it quick.

The trailers are great but i think the public is still unsure whether superman is a character they can enjoy on the big screen? since it's been so long since anyone has.

[sup101]

Once they show superman kicking ass in the next trailer, It's A wrap.That along will sell more tickets then superman returns.

[jmc]

22 of you seriously think this will break a billion? Hope you're not getting your hopes up for that one.

[Bruce_Begins]

I think worldwide collections would be in 700 mil to 800 mil range.

[Fedor]

I am guessing 1.5 billion, i just have that feeling.

[MessiahDecoy123]

For me personally anthing lower than 300 domestic and 600 worldwide would be a disappointment.

I'd be very pleased with anything over 325 domestic and 700 worldwide.

MOS needs to be profitable and Superman needs to be an A-lister again like Batman, Spider-man, Avengers and Iron Man.

[Showtime]

Really not sure how viable Superman is going to be overseas. Completely tanked overseas last time around. Hopefully they have a way to market it this time around outside North America.

[MessiahDecoy123]

Well the foriegn market has expanded since Superman Returns and there's a 3D factor this time.

Both should add a healthy boost assuming the overseas audience doesn't drop from last time.