Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread

[sf2]

But I still think Shia labeuf and Megan Fox ain’t as powerful as that white face guy and stiff face girl in term of crowd-drawing power to their movies respectively.

[Smallville13]

Originally Posted by sf2

Is it kinda like twilights? Even though the films are as good as rubbish, they still made millions because the teenage girls were crazy to see that white face guy with that stiff face girl, and not so much about the vampire and werewolf. So not all vampire and werewolf film can guarantee making money. Right?

Yeah exactly. Whereas instead of a high school setting and characters like Transformers or Twilight that appealed to that demographic, Pacific Rim will be more 'adult' government, military based (whilst still being a high budget B-movie).

I just can't see Pacific Rim being more than a 'moderate' success. Like $300M tops.

[GreenKToo]

Originally Posted by Smallville13

No and that's what I mean. Since the movies were a hit for the young demographic. Do you really think teenage girls are interested in robots fighting. It's more the 'hipness' of everything in it. The camaros and other flashy cars, plus Megan Fox who was very 'hot' in terms of coverage at the time.

Back to Pacific Rim. There's not that 'cool' angle of kids going through high school or college or whatever. It's more... look if I have to keep explaining you aren't gonna get it. But there's a huge difference.

I respectively disagree. They may have helped a little, but the robots and action were the draw. Everybody already knew the name transformers. Throw the name bay in, and it was a sure fire hit.

[Smallville13]

Originally Posted by GreenKToo

I respectively disagree. They may have helped a little, but the robots and action were the draw. Everybody already knew the name transformers. Throw the name bay in, and it was a sure fire hit.

Yeah but think of the imagery most associated with the films

[ThePowerCosmic]

Originally Posted by Smallville13

MOS I can see. I wouldn't bet on Pacific Rim though. Guillermo del Toro is more of a cult film director. So whilst you and I love his films they don't exactly light the world on fire. And if that mediocre trailer is anything to go by (as in completely disregarded by most people) I can't see it raking it in big next year either. People will say 'but look at how popular the transformers movies were', but I think they underestimate how important Shia labeuf and Megan Fox were to drawing the 'mainstream' to those movies.

I don't know, I think it's the type of movies that Del Toro directs that lend themselves to cult films. Pacific Rim seems like it's going to be a huge crowd pleaser that has more reach than his other movies. We'll see.

[DChero]

Originally Posted by ThePowerCosmic

I don't know, I think it's the type of movies that Del Toro directs that lend themselves to cult films. Pacific Rim seems like it's going to be a huge crowd pleaser that has more reach than his other movies. We'll see.

I've heard a lot of people (outside of the comic crowd), that thought the trailer was kind of weird. I'm sure it'll have a good opening, but I don't expect it to live up to expectations. It wasn't that it looked bad, but I don't think it has the type of momentum that it should.

By comparison, I really haven't heard a whole lot of buzz about Man of Steel either. My friends and co-workers know I'm a big Superman fan, so they typically talk to me about a comic book movie that their interested in. We'll see how it looks in the Spring once more people have been exposed to the trailer.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Del Toro hasn't made one crowd pleaser so I have no proof that he knows what large audiences want. Now Whedon hadn't a non cult thing to his name until Avengers but that was a big superhero team up film so the jury is still out on he can lure in moviegoers with a non Avengers movie like Nolan did with Inception but I digress. I don't see how some see Rim as an automatic hit because of big robots? Transformers was a well know property and that helps. Rim is not a well know property and the trailer was mediocre, big robots are not going to be enough. A decent trailer needs to be cut stat.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Originally Posted by FilmNerdJamie

$100M 3-Day opening!?!

Let's not get ahead of ourselves, folks. Best to take a step back and breathe.

And in the middle of June? That sounds impossible.

[Liam_H]

Its not impossible, I believe its just that most movies released during that mid-June time frame don't have the potential to make that much. Toy Story 3 did but thats obvious why.

If MOS and IM3 switched release dates, I'm pretty sure IM3 would still pass $100 million while MOS is still no guarantee.

[flickchick85]

See, I'm thinking closer to an $80-85m domestic 3-day opening weekend...and even then I feel like that's me being optimistic.

[sf2]

Originally Posted by Liam_H

Its not impossible, I believe its just that most movies released during that mid-June time frame don't have the potential to make that much. Toy Story 3 did but thats obvious why.

If MOS and IM3 switched release dates, I'm pretty sure IM3 would still pass $100 million while MOS is still no guarantee.

Damn. Kinda true though.
Few years back Ironman was still nobody… now one of the coolest superhero…

[DaRkVeNgeanCe]

Originally Posted by I SEE SPIDEY

Del Toro hasn't made one crowd pleaser so I have no proof that he knows what large audiences want. Now Whedon hadn't a non cult thing to his name until Avengers but that was a big superhero team up film so the jury is still out on he can lure in moviegoers with a non Avengers movie like Nolan did with Inception but I digress. I don't see how some see Rim as an automatic hit because of big robots? Transformers was a well know property and that helps. Rim is not a well know property and the trailer was mediocre, big robots are not going to be enough. A decent trailer needs to be cut stat.

Neither of the Hellboy films or Blade 2 ( both Del Toro films ) did bad in the box office, they all made a decent chunk of change and are typically highly regarded, I would call that crowd pleasing.

[ConnorKon-El]

I'm sure this film will do a sizable gross, we are in the right direction so far. Trailer created a very nice wave of buzz.

[Marvin]

Originally Posted by Smallville13

Yeah but think of the imagery most associated with the films

Spoiler!!! Click to Read!:

[IMG]http://www.thetransformers.net/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/article-0-04c44713000005dc-822_306x3491.jpg[/IMG

]

I wouldn't say that's what's most associated with the films(especially for the kids) but let's play ball here. All of this stuff was in both The bat films and Avengers, probably more so, don't forget Bond, however those films had the appearance of character study and a few other things on the check list so all was well. Point is, it's amazing how stigmatic such visuals have become on message boards and circles such as our, yet celebrated in the next breath.
It's amazing to actually hear people around here comment on how "cool" giant robots punching **** can be, without adding the eye roll smilely at the end. Not that the pRim trailer has objectively offered an ounce more substance than any of the TF fare. I suppose it's the promise of things.

We are a superstitions and cowardly lot and the execs know it.

Again, I've seen more Hathaway's behind in skin tight clad on a bike then I've ever seen of fox in the same scenario at this point, but one was done "tastefully" whilst the latter was done in with a hint of insult so...I digress.

Transformers had a smaller name than GJ joe when it opened and yet something worked, dare I say it was the producers ability to tap into and sell the cultural digest of the times rather effectively.
I like Del Torro, but I'm not seeing that in his product. Not saying that's a bad thing, this is a box office discussion. I'm seeing something like the hobbit which speaks very fluently to a genre crowd with some spill over. However unlike the hobbit, PRim doesn't have the power of zeitgeist on it's side. Moreover it's not exactly promising anything we haven't seen before. If anything, the early visuals are a step backwards.
Fans really need to ask themselves: as amazing has Del Torro has been to genre, how amazing have his films really been? I love Blade 2, I like the hell boy stuff. But were those nolan caliber achievements? It will do modest business...word of mouth and poor competition will be it's saving grace. And, as much as I hate myself for saying this, It also needed some bankable stars.
Who the **** are these people?

Sometimes WB films opening big, other times they open very much the opposite.

I think MoS will surprise people. And after that, so will it's box office.
"Have you seen that new Nolan Superman movie?" they will say, "you've gotta, it's so different..."

"superman actually has a thought process and he verbalizes it"

[Smallville13]

I think we're essentially making the same point.

Originally Posted by Marvin

I wouldn't say that's what's most associated with the films(especially for the kids) but let's play ball here. All of this stuff was in both The bat films and Avengers, probably more so, don't forget Bond, however those films had the appearance of character study and a few other things on the check list so all was well. Point is, it's amazing how stigmatic such visuals have become on message boards and circles such as our, yet celebrated in the next breath.
It's amazing to actually hear people around here comment on how "cool" giant robots punching **** can be, without adding the eye roll smilely at the end. Not that the pRim trailer has objectively offered an ounce more substance than any of the TF fare. I suppose it's the promise of things.

We are a superstitions and cowardly lot and the execs know it.

No exactly, for all the 10-year old boys that went to those films it was very much for the robots. However Bay was able to appeal to the 18-25 market as well very successfully. How? With the sunny day-glo very hip style of the films. The flashy cars, the hot stars based on their age group.

Originally Posted by Marvin

Again, I've seen more Hathaway's behind in skin tight clad on a bike then I've ever seen of fox in the same scenario at this point, but one was done "tastefully" whilst the latter was done in with a hint of insult so...I digress.

Transformers had a smaller name than GJ joe when it opened and yet something worked, dare I say it was the producers ability to tap into and sell the cultural digest of the times rather effectively.
I like Del Torro, but I'm not seeing that in his product. Not saying that's a bad thing, this is a box office discussion. I'm seeing something like the hobbit which speaks very fluently to a genre crowd with some spill over. However unlike the hobbit, PRim doesn't have the power of zeitgeist on it's side. Moreover it's not exactly promising anything we haven't seen before. If anything, the early visuals are a step backwards.

Exactly.

Originally Posted by Marvin

Fans really need to ask themselves: as amazing has Del Torro has been to genre, how amazing have his films really been? I love Blade 2, I like the hell boy stuff. But were those nolan caliber achievements? It will do modest business...word of mouth and poor competition will be it's saving grace. And, as much as I hate myself for saying this, It also needed some bankable stars.
Who the **** are these people?

Sometimes WB films opening big, other times they open very much the opposite.

I think MoS will surprise people. And after that, so will it's box office.
"Have you seen that new Nolan Superman movie?" they will say, "you've gotta, it's so different..."

"superman actually has a thought process and he verbalizes it"

Exactly. Idris Elba and Ron Perlman just aren't big mainstream draws.

[ConnorKon-El]

Originally Posted by Marvin

I wouldn't say that's what's most associated with the films(especially for the kids) but let's play ball here. All of this stuff was in both The bat films and Avengers, probably more so, don't forget Bond, however those films had the appearance of character study and a few other things on the check list so all was well. Point is, it's amazing how stigmatic such visuals have become on message boards and circles such as our, yet celebrated in the next breath.
It's amazing to actually hear people around here comment on how "cool" giant robots punching **** can be, without adding the eye roll smilely at the end. Not that the pRim trailer has objectively offered an ounce more substance than any of the TF fare. I suppose it's the promise of things.

We are a superstitions and cowardly lot and the execs know it.

Again, I've seen more Hathaway's behind in skin tight clad on a bike then I've ever seen of fox in the same scenario at this point, but one was done "tastefully" whilst the latter was done in with a hint of insult so...I digress.

Transformers had a smaller name than GJ joe when it opened and yet something worked, dare I say it was the producers ability to tap into and sell the cultural digest of the times rather effectively.
I like Del Torro, but I'm not seeing that in his product. Not saying that's a bad thing, this is a box office discussion. I'm seeing something like the hobbit which speaks very fluently to a genre crowd with some spill over. However unlike the hobbit, PRim doesn't have the power of zeitgeist on it's side. Moreover it's not exactly promising anything we haven't seen before. If anything, the early visuals are a step backwards.
Fans really need to ask themselves: as amazing has Del Torro has been to genre, how amazing have his films really been? I love Blade 2, I like the hell boy stuff. But were those nolan caliber achievements? It will do modest business...word of mouth and poor competition will be it's saving grace. And, as much as I hate myself for saying this, It also needed some bankable stars.
Who the **** are these people?

Sometimes WB films opening big, other times they open very much the opposite.

I think MoS will surprise people. And after that, so will it's box office.
"Have you seen that new Nolan Superman movie?" they will say, "you've gotta, it's so different..."

"superman actually has a thought process and he verbalizes it"

I sure as hell hope so. I really hope it has a great word of mouth, that would help so much, and keep people coming to see the film.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Originally Posted by DaRkVeNgeanCe

Neither of the Hellboy films or Blade 2 ( both Del Toro films ) did bad in the box office, they all made a decent chunk of change and are typically highly regarded, I would call that crowd pleasing.

He has never directed a movie that has hit the 100mil mark, let alone the 150mil or 200mil mark that Rim needs to hit. He doesn't have a blockbuster to his name thus those films were not mass market crowd pleasers. They were mid budget successes.

Hell, I really liked Hellboy, loved Blade 2 and liked a few of his other movies. Del Toro is a talented, charming director and I'd love for him to have a true hit to his name but he doesn't yet. If Rim isn't another Fanboy fest like the trailer is alluding that it is then it should be his first real hit. I'm waiting for another trailer to really predict it though, you know one with characters.

[Dark Knight]

Originally Posted by flickchick85

See, I'm thinking closer to an $80-85m domestic 3-day opening weekend...and even then I feel like that's me being optimistic.

Hmm...that sounds about right. However, we shouldn't underestimate the worldwide Superman brand name.

Plus it will be his 75th anniversary. I would like to see a Super Bowl spot with good SFX action shots with some emotion.

The next full trailer will be kick ass and will generate even more buzz.

I think a 3day 100 million opening weekend is a possibility, but not probable.

[Marvin]

I'm looking for at least IM1's numbers.
Outside of good word of mouth and RDJ, that film had less going in than MOS.

Top off the brand with Nolan's selling power and Snyder's crowd engaging visual, there is absolutely no way this won't atleast get IM1's numbers. Internationally it's even better.

[ConnorKon-El]

Originally Posted by Marvin

I'm looking for at least IM1's numbers.
Outside of good word of mouth and RDJ, that film had less going in than MOS.

Top of the brand with Nolan's selling power and Snyder's crowd engaging visual, there is absolutely no way this won't atleast get IM1's numbers. Internationally it's even better.

I think 600 Million WW is highly possible. The marketing just has to be really good, and it looks like Warner is on the right track so far with all the buzz that the theatrical trailer created.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

My starting point for a prediction is definitely over 230mil domestically based on that excellent trailer.

[jacobed]

This movie will easily top a billion

[sf2]

The plot could be as terrible as a superkid.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Originally Posted by jacobed

This movie will easily top a billion

It has no chance at making a billion dollars. It's a reboot and reboots never do that well.

[jacobed]

It will easily make a billion, mark my words