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Old 03-06-2013, 12:23 AM   #201
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Default Re: 2013: The Re-Up (box office predictions)

Top 5 worldwide

1. A Good Day to Die Hard $222,6 million
2. Lost in Thailand $196 million
3. Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters $181,3 million
4. Journey to the West: Conquering the Demons $168 million
5. Chinese Zodiac $165,4 million

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Old 03-07-2013, 05:58 AM   #202
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Journey To The West: Conquering The Demons earned first place for the third weekend in a row earning $23.37 million in 8 markets for a running tally of $193.09 million. A few years ago, a Chinese film earning nearly $200 million would have been the biggest news of the year, but this is becoming almost common.

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Old 03-13-2013, 01:44 AM   #203
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Top 5 worldwide

1. A Good Day to Die Hard $240,6 million
2. Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters $197 million
3. Lost in Thailand $196 million
4. Journey to the West: Conquering the Demons $193,1 million
5. Chinese Zodiac $165,4 million

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Old 03-14-2013, 02:58 AM   #204
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Which 2013 Movies Could Earn $1 Billion?

by Ray Subers


March 13, 2013


At the beginning of 2008, only three movies—Titanic, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King and Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest—had earned over $1 billion worldwide. Flash forward five years to early 2013, and The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey has just recently become the 15th title to reach that illustrious milestone.

With the addition of 3D ticket pricing and the rapid expansion of the foreign market in areas like China and Russia, reaching $1 billion definitely isn't all that it used to be. Still, it hasn't lost all its prestige, and hitting that mark remains an undeniable sign that a movie is a global sensation.

Four 2012 movies reached that coveted level, though only one (Skyfall) was a major surprise. 2013, on the other hand, doesn't have as many obvious choices, and it's therefore unlikely we'll once again see four $1 billion titles.

Excluding Jurassic Park—which will obviously pass $1 billion thanks to its 3D re-release—here's a look at the 2013 movies that could ultimately reach $1 billion, along with what we think the odds are of that happening.

Iron Man 3
(May)

Instead of viewing Iron Man 3 as a sequel to Iron Man 2 ($624 million), it's more beneficial to view it as a spin-off featuring the most-popular character from The Avengers (sorry, Hulk, but Tony Stark/Iron Man is still easily the most widely-liked member of the team). That movie ranks third all-time with over $1.5 billion worldwide; if Iron Man 3's drop from The Avengers is in line with that of recent spin-offs X-Men Origins: Wolverine and Puss in Boots, it will absolutely earn over $1 billion. Odds: 60%

Star Trek Into Darkness
(May)

Star Trek Into Darkness
looks like a massive blockbuster, but it's coming off a 2009 predecessor that only managed to earn $128 million overseas. Into Darkness is clearly designed with a foreign audience in mind—director J.J. Abrams was mandated to make it 3D, and it appears like a large portion of the movie is set in futuristic London—and four years of positive word-of-mouth on the 2009 movie will significantly increase demand for this one. Still, it would need to get past $600 million overseas, which would be an unprecedented overseas jump. Odds: 5%

Fast & Furious 6
(May)

2011's Fast Five put the Fast & Furious franchise in a great position: not only was it by-far the highest-grossing entry yet with $626 million worldwide, but it was also a major crowd-pleaser that featured the kind of post-credits twist that has had fans chomping at the bit for the past two years. The previews for Fast & Furious 6 deliver all the car-related destruction these fans expect, while also presenting a new story and new location (London/Europe). Still, it's entirely possible that this series is nearing its ceiling, and a 60 percent increase worldwide is hard to fathom. Odds: 25%

Monsters University
(June)

Monsters University
is the third Disney/Pixar sequel in the past four Summers; the first one, Toy Story 3, is the highest-grossing animated movie ever with $1.06 billion, while Cars 2 underwhelmed a bit with $560 million. Monsters, Inc. is a very well-liked Pixar movie, but isn't put on quite the same pedestal as the first two Toy Story movies. Also, instead of actually moving the story forward, Disney/Pixar opted to go the prequel route, which means the story itself won't be nearly as essential for audiences. If Monsters University turns out to be a return to greatness, then $1 billion is a possibility, but don't count on it. Odds: 15%

Despicable Me 2
(July)

In 2010, Despicable Me introduced audiences to the Minions and earned over $543 million worldwide. As well-liked as it is, though, history suggests it has no chance of reaching $1 billion: in fact, using other recent closely-timed animated sequels as comparable titles, it's unlikely that Despicable Me 2 makes it past $700 million. Odds: 10%

Thor: The Dark World
(November)

Coming off The Avengers, the second Thor movie will clearly do better business than the first ($449 million). Still, the title character isn't nearly as popular as Iron Man, and so it's doubtful that it holds on to more than half of The Avengers's $1.5 billion. Odds: 20%

The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
(November)

At the domestic box office, The Hunger Games earned an incredible $408 million, which is more than any of the Harry Potter or Twilight movies. Unfortunately, it was a modest overseas performer with $283.2 million. In much the same way as the Twilight franchise experienced a huge overseas bump from the first to second movie, though, so should The Hunger Games, and a foreign total for the sequel in the realm of $500 million wouldn't be surprising. That still makes $1 billion tough to reach, but if a non-3D movie is going to do it in 2013, it's going to be Catching Fire. Odds: 40%

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
(December)

Each Lord of the Rings movie earned more than its predecessor, and by that logic The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug should be able to top An Unexpected Journey $1.02 billion. No matter how vocal the fans are, though, it has become abundantly clear that An Unexpected Journey isn't as well-liked as the original movies. Therefore, it's going to take an impressive marketing effort to get Smaug to avoid the modest three percent dip that would put it below $1 billion. Odds: 50%

"Original" Movies


Only three "original" movies—as in, not sequels or prequels—have ever earned $1 billion worldwide. Two of those movies were made by James Cameron (Avatar and Titanic), and the third (Alice in Wonderland) owes at least a tiny amount of its box office to goodwill generated by Avatar a few months earlier. All of this is to say that the odds are extremely low that an "original" 2013 movie reaches $1 billion.

Oz The Great and Powerful
had a miniscule chance of performing similar to Alice in Wonderland, though any and all hope was squashed when it opened considerably lower than Alice on an overseas basis this past weekend (around 50 percent lower across major markets).

With Zack Snyder's stylish direction, guidance from Christopher Nolan, and the addition of 3D pricing, June's Man of Steel has a lot going for it. Still, the movie would need to earn nearly three times as much as 2006's Superman Returns, which is a near impossibility.

Johnny Depp has starred in three $1 billion movies (a record), and Lone Ranger's marketing has been pushing the Pirates of the Caribbean connection. Unfortunately, its previews have been met with a lukewarm reception so far, and Westerns are a notoriously tough sell overseas.

Finally, with its skyscraper-sized robots going up against giant monsters, July's Pacific Rim is sure to do great business in Asia at least. The rest of the world, though, is another story, and coming anywhere close to $1 billion is a stretch.

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Old 03-17-2013, 02:04 AM   #205
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After 2012's 4 $1 B movies, I think 3 is guaranteed, with 4-5 being entirely possible. Only Avengers seemed like a real milestone in box office gross. The others are entirely possible to replicate.


My Worldwide predictions:


$1 B+:

Catching Fire
The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3


$750-999 M:

The Man of Steel
Star Trek: Into Darkness

$500-749 M:

Despicable Me 2
Lone Ranger
Monsters University
Oz: The Great and Powerful
Pacific Rim
Thor: The Dark World

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Old 03-17-2013, 10:07 AM   #206
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That Ray approaches his numbers from a franchise, "what are they coming off of" perspective. Which is fine when you look at say the Nolan Trilogy.

And really a testament to what marvel has put together. If Whedon hadn't made avengers a hit...all these films would be coming off of their own franchise merit which, wasn't too good as things stand.

I think he's dead wrong about MoS though. That one may surprise people.

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Old 03-17-2013, 12:46 PM   #207
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Default Re: 2013: The Re-Up (box office predictions)

If one is optimistic and say that MOS will earn around $300 million or even up $350 million domestic that would mean overseas has to account for $650-700 million. The latter is hard to do for a new franchise.

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Old 03-17-2013, 01:16 PM   #208
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Man of Steel, Iron Man 3, and Wolverine will be interesting. Usually when you have one poor film in a franchise, the following film doesn't do as well. Here we have films that came in-between and other important names to add into the mix.

Will audiences who were let down by 'Superman Returns' come back due to Nolan's good name?

Iron Man 2 isn't strongly regarded and if not for Avengers, there would have definitely been a decline in the audience between 2 and 3. HOWEVER, will the audiences view it as a sequel to The Avengers? And therefore negate that possible dip between 2 and 3.

Also, with Wolverine. Wolverine Origins left everyone in theaters feeling pretty let down. I have yet to meet one person who truly liked it. However, in between then we've had X-Men: First Class which was widely accepted already took the hit from Wolverine and X-Men 3 and earned back the audience's trust. So will audiences see Wolverine as continuing in the tradition set by First Class and not let Wolverine Origins impact it? Or will Wolverine Origins despite First Class still be strong on people's minds?

Basically it's the summer to really show how audiences view franchises basically.

1) Does a well-respected name coming off a huge franchise mean more to audience's and can combat the tradition?
2) In a multi-film-spanning franchise, is it seen as one large whole or are they still viewed independently?

For all superhero films, after the previous installment didn't sit well with audiences the tradition is a dive in audience turn out for the following film. However, here we're dealing with a lot of new variables that will be interesting to see how they play out.

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Old 03-17-2013, 02:34 PM   #209
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Default Re: 2013: The Re-Up (box office predictions)

Burt Wonderstone only opened with 10mil. The budget is only like 30ish million so I'm sure they aren't going to lose cash but you would think a Carell/Carey comedy could at least hit 15mil. I guess bad previews and T.V spots do still effect some movies.
After the bombing of Beautiful Creatures, Jack the Giant Slayer, Bullet to the Head and the disappointment of Gangster Squad and now Burt Wonderstone I bet Warners is just praying the first part of 2013 ends already.

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Old 03-17-2013, 03:05 PM   #210
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I'm pretty sure Oz had something to do with that.

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Old 03-17-2013, 03:07 PM   #211
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Oz had something to do with what?

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Old 03-17-2013, 03:11 PM   #212
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WB has had a horrible 1st quarter. Hopefully they can make it up this summer. Even without a batfilm.

If The Wolverine bombs, that doesn't bode well for that next big shinny Xmen movie(which will no doubt star wolverine ala singer).
This is the blessing and curse of the franchise/brand era of today.

That Chris Pratt is coming into a sure hit of sorts where as a few years prior he would have been coming into a sure bomb.

Ben Kingsley has never been so fan cheered as he is now, and no thanks to IronMan 2.

Whomever is cast as the villain for MoS 2 will be set!

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Old 03-17-2013, 03:20 PM   #213
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Oz had something to do with what?
Burt Wonderstone. I'm a Jim Carrey fan and was excited to see it, but can even say Oz eclipsed it in box office. I'm pretty sure if it opened at any other time it would have done better. I just see no way 'Identity Thief' legitimately gets more money than this.

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Old 03-17-2013, 04:09 PM   #214
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Burt Wonderstone. I'm a Jim Carrey fan and was excited to see it, but can even say Oz eclipsed it in box office. I'm pretty sure if it opened at any other time it would have done better. I just see no way 'Identity Thief' legitimately gets more money than this.
Oz had nothing to do with Wonderstone's failure. Two different demos. And Oz didn't stop The Call from opening with 17mil.

A dated primise, a bad trailer and terrible T.V spots killed it. IDT looked funny to most people and had two stars who came off of two comedies that grossed over 100mil.

Everything in your post is wrong. Sorry. And nobody gives a damn about Carrey anymore, his time has passed.

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Old 03-17-2013, 04:38 PM   #215
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The stars of identity theif, their names are escaping me at the moment.
The audience should be getting tired of them soon, both of them.

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Old 03-17-2013, 04:51 PM   #216
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I wouldn't say they are that far apart. Both go after a more PG crowd. Light hearted. Against a rated R horror thriller. Which one sounds more like Oz?

Also 'Identity Thief' may have had a strong first weekend, but there's no way I can see its word of mouth being that strong. When I went nobody in the theater laughed, credits rolled with dead silence, and it lacked any heart to it. So that would have accounted for its first weekend, but I can't see any correlation between that and the following weeks.

And I see no point in your Jim Carrey remark since I said nothing about him and the box office growth. And people do still care about Jim Carrey because if they didn't - his movies still wouldn't be being made and people would have stopped talking about him. Whereas here, he was the highlight from everyone and anyone who talked about the film. As well as one of the highlights, from everyone I've heard from at least, about Kick Ass 2.

The point still stands though, it was abysmally horrible and unfunny film and this is coming from a Jason Bateman fan who wanted to see it since the first trailer. Marketing can account for first and possibly part of the second weekend, but not to reach the gross it did. I'm sorry, the film just wasn't funny. Not one laugh from my audience.

If it opened in the second week of 'Identity Crises,' or hell I'd even say the first week, I do see it as being or at least becoming strong competition. One is already getting good word of mouth and the audience laughed out loud throughout. Compared to 'Identity Crises' which mostly played to... well, dead air... when I saw it.

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Old 03-17-2013, 05:42 PM   #217
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Idenity Thieft has strong legs so obviously somebody likes it. I'm not defending it as a film because I haven't seen it but somebody obviously likes it. You are letting your personal feelings about the film get in the way of reality.

I have no idea if people liked Wonderstone because it just opened. If it has good legs that will prove it's well liked but it's opening is still piss poor. And you are still wrong about Oz hurting it. Oz is heading for a different audience and it is no Alice In Wonderland or Hunger Games at the boxoffice.

Also I mentioned Carrey because he is in the film and you brought up the fact that you are a fan of his.

You are boderline insane if you think that Wonderstone would have ever opened to 30mil with the out of date primise and those deeply unappealing previews.

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Old 03-17-2013, 05:57 PM   #218
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Actually the film, I checked got like a 5.3 on IMDB. Yet in the 60s on rotten tomato from people. I'd save overall, most people gave the film a 6/10.

It still has a MUCH closer audience than The Call in terms of comparisons.

That has nothing to say with the box office. I'm still curious about your impassioned ending which just seems kinda odd...

Also the script for 'Identity Thief,' I'm pretty sure I heard was written about ten years ago or something like that. How is that film's plot any less dated?

And yes, a different time - it would have opened much stronger than it did this weekend. I'm unsure about 30 mil, but as I said and the ONLY thing I have ever said - it would have opened bigger.

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Old 03-17-2013, 06:18 PM   #219
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Identity Thief is getting strong WOM, you don't approach a 4x weekend multiplier without it. Oz and Wonderstone might have a slight overlap but the former is obviously more kids oriented, parents will more likely take their kids to that then Wonderstone.

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Old 03-17-2013, 06:22 PM   #220
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Unsure where Identity Thief got it from because when I went as said - nobody laughed - all the critics seriously hated it plus it only seems to have 6.0 overall internet rating. And this is coming from a Jason Bateman fan, or maybe my expectations were just too high that it was a let down for me. Unsure. I rarely say a movie is bad too...

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Old 03-17-2013, 06:33 PM   #221
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Simple answer, you and your crowd are in the minority. I fit in that also since I didn't care much for the movie. This and Oz are the first big hits of 2013.

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Old 03-17-2013, 06:38 PM   #222
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/\ I think it has more to do with the selection of comedies earlier in the year than anything else. Also if more people liked it, you would probably expect to find a rotten tomatoes audience rating somewhere in the 80s and an IMDB rating around 7. something. Typically. And, no one please take offense as to the locale - unsure why it's usually termed as such, I'm wondering if that was a quote-un-quote "middle america" type of result. As said, I just see it getting higher audience ratings on both if the majority did like it since that's usually the case with those ratings.

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Old 03-17-2013, 07:00 PM   #223
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Transformers: Dark of the Moon only has a 6/10 on imdb, yet it grossed $1.1 B ww. I think the demographic that will rate a film on imdb and RT user ratings is pretty narrow.

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Old 03-17-2013, 07:01 PM   #224
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Default Re: 2013: The Re-Up (box office predictions)

UH, Burt Wonderstone looked terrible. The trailer was awful, the commercials were awful, and the tracking was awful. I'm not surprised it bombed. It also has a terrible cinemascore (C+), which means word of mouth isn't going to be any better.

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Old 03-17-2013, 07:03 PM   #225
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I would call Transformers a mix probably between middle america and reviews. I'm usually the barometer to people in life and if you look online - I rarely give anything under a 7 lol. I'm like RDJ, you amuse me at least once and I'll probably like it. I'm "easy" that way.

Surprised at the cinescore because everyone in the theater was laughing hysterically. Although, mostly at every single time Carrey came on screen and then once Alan Arkin came in it was laughs throughout.

ALSO ADDING: I for one hope Oz is number 1 for a couple of weeks, even against GI Joe. So all I'm saying is any other time Wonderstone would have done better.

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