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Old 09-08-2013, 01:14 PM   #126
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Default Re: > Design FOX's Production AGENDA since DOFP (2014-2022)

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Opening that close to Cinderella is not gonna be a good thing for F4. They best find a better date. Or hope opening weekend is gonna get back most it's budget, which I doubt it will.
There's no other date. 2015 is completly locked Down. There's sequels everywhere. The only thing I can think of is for Fox to switch dates with assassins creed, but I imagine AC has more BO potential anyway.

EDIT. I take it back, there's a Pixar film coming out the same day. 2015 is locked down completely.


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Old 09-08-2013, 02:24 PM   #127
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Opening that close to Cinderella is not gonna be a good thing for F4. They best find a better date. Or hope opening weekend is gonna get back most it's budget, which I doubt it will.
I'll admit, I'm more than a little worried about the new Fan 4. Mainly because there's been nothing else announced for the film.

We have a release date, a director, producer and a start date for filming. It worries me that we have no cast announced this close to the start date of filming. It's starting to feel more and more like the DareDevil situation between Marvel and Fox all over again.

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Old 09-08-2013, 02:36 PM   #128
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Default Re: > Design FOX's Production AGENDA since DOFP (2014-2022)

Why are people worried about a Cinderella movie?

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Old 09-08-2013, 02:40 PM   #129
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Because it will probably be huge at the box office?! It would be stupid to put a movie reboot up against that even if the audiences aren't particularly the same target.

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Old 09-08-2013, 02:43 PM   #130
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Im not so sure a Cinderella movie will be huge, honestly.

Not all the fairytales have had a big boxoffice, and there are many factors that count, including the cast, director, how the movie looks and all of that.

Mirror Mirror with JULIA ROBERTS, only did 64, in USA, and 101m internationally...

So until I see the trailers, I'll have a hard time thinking Cinderella will be huge.

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Old 09-08-2013, 02:49 PM   #131
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Im not so sure a Cinderella movie will be huge, honestly.

Not all the fairytales have had a big boxoffice, and there are many factors that count, including the cast, director, how the movie looks and all of that.

Mirror Mirror with JULIA ROBERTS, only did 64, in USA, and 101m internationally...

So until I see the trailers, I'll have a hard time thinking Cinderella will be huge.
Mirror Mirror had a subpar cast and looked terrible. Cinderella is being produced by Disney, directed by Kenneth Branagh and has Cate Blanchett in one of the leading roles not to mention a pretty good supporting cast.

I will expect it to do quite well. It would be silly to put your big summer blockbuster up against it.

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Old 09-08-2013, 02:53 PM   #132
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I dont remember the supporting cast, but if Im not wrong, they were new comers.

And having Cate Blanche is a good look, but again, thats not a guarantee it will do 400m, you know? hehe, so.... as always, we'll have to wait and see.

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Old 09-08-2013, 04:13 PM   #133
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Im not so sure a Cinderella movie will be huge, honestly.

Not all the fairytales have had a big boxoffice, and there are many factors that count, including the cast, director, how the movie looks and all of that.

Mirror Mirror with JULIA ROBERTS, only did 64, in USA, and 101m internationally...

So until I see the trailers, I'll have a hard time thinking Cinderella will be huge.
It's a Disney princess movie (it's probably made its money back just by being affiliated). if they're smart they've linked it in with the Maleficient princess movie they've got coming up in 2014. It's also got the miraculous 2 week gap between any competition so rival studios are a bit cautious (btw its another bloody Madagascar movie, can you beleive it?!). It'll probably end up doing what Oz did, if not slightly better.
F4 is way too early to tell. I just think if Wolverine could barely get $370mil, and the last F4 films did $330 mil and $280mil WITH extra merchandise promotion I imagine fox would be quite scared. but with the expanding foreign market, it's possible that F4 will gross the same as the first one (similar to the wolverine), it aint great, it aint bad. But it's too early to tell.


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Old 09-08-2013, 05:01 PM   #134
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Because it will probably be huge at the box office?!
That can be said about a lot of movies.

A White House set movie with Channing Tatum and Jamie Fox directed by Master of Disasters Roland Emmerich?! That will probably be huge!!!

A Monsters vs. Robots live-action movie directed by Geek God Guillermo del Torro?! That will probably be huge!!!

Vince Vaughn and Owen Wilson, stars of 2005's sleeper hit The Wedding Crashers reuniti... I don't even want to finish that sentence

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Old 09-08-2013, 05:14 PM   #135
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that was basically my point.

well said, enD, lol

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Old 09-08-2013, 05:23 PM   #136
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That can be said about a lot of movies.

A White House set movie with Channing Tatum and Jamie Fox directed by Master of Disasters Roland Emmerich?! That will probably be huge!!!

A Monsters vs. Robots live-action movie directed by Geek God Guillermo del Torro?! That will probably be huge!!!

Vince Vaughn and Owen Wilson, stars of 2005's sleeper hit The Wedding Crashers reuniti... I don't even want to finish that sentence
The films you listed actually have about 100 reasons each as to why they flopped. Sometimes it's easy to see a hit or a flop. You have to analyse trends, look at likely situations. Robots vs Monster is not enough of a reason for a film to be a hit, or a flop. You also have to look at situations facing a company internally, many say that WB and Legendarys garbage relationship, leading to poor decisions, is the reason for PAC Rim doing so bad. White House Down looked too much like another movie, was terrible, and was badly promoted (I don't know what Jamie foxx and Channging Tatum standing side by side on a poster is supposed to tell me about a movie, and frankly I don't care).


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Old 09-08-2013, 07:14 PM   #137
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Default Re: > Design FOX's Production AGENDA since DOFP (2014-2022)

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Im not so sure a Cinderella movie will be huge, honestly.

Not all the fairytales have had a big boxoffice, and there are many factors that count, including the cast, director, how the movie looks and all of that.

Mirror Mirror with JULIA ROBERTS, only did 64, in USA, and 101m internationally...

So until I see the trailers, I'll have a hard time thinking Cinderella will be huge.
Mirror Mirror was a low budget movie that wasn't even that well marketed and almost looked like a parody. Which I think it was. I'm surprised it did as well as it did. I'm a huge Tarsem fan but it looked like a joke. Snow White grossed about 400ww and was marketed as a much darker adult film. Neither had Disney which makes a huge differences with these fairy tails. Makes them a bit more legit, since everyone grew up watching and seeing these characters in the Classic Cartoons and theme parks. The Disney audience of all ages (which is alot bigger then F4) is gonna flock to that.

This is Disney doing what they do. Alice and OZ killed it in March and more then likely so will this. Cinderella is one of the most classic fairy tails out there.
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I'll admit, I'm more than a little worried about the new Fan 4. Mainly because there's been nothing else announced for the film.

We have a release date, a director, producer and a start date for filming. It worries me that we have no cast announced this close to the start date of filming. It's starting to feel more and more like the DareDevil situation between Marvel and Fox all over again.
That film is a big question mark for me. F4 can be a comic film that appeals to alot of families, but I have no idea what to think about it's success right now.


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Old 09-08-2013, 07:46 PM   #138
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The films listed actually have about 100 reasons each as to why they flopped. Sometimes it's easy to see a hit or a flop. You have to analyse trends, look at likely situations. Robots vs Monster is not enough of a reason for a film to be a hit, or a flop. You also have to look at situations facing a company internally, many say that WB and Legendarys garbage relationship, leading to poor decisions, is the reason for PAC Rim doing so bad. White House Down looked too much like another movie, was terrible, and was badly promoted (I don't know what Jamie foxx and Channging Tatum standing side by side on a poster is supposed to tell me about a movie, and frankly I don't care).
I don't agree with this at all. No one KNOWS how a movie is going to perform. There is just a lot of guesswork. But if there were a winning fornula, then everyone would follow it.

It was widely thought that Star Trek Into Darkness would do much better, especially on opening weekend. It was widely thought that Man of Steel would do much better. Everyone was surprised at how well X-Men The Last Stand performed (given the deadly combo of Brett Ratner, a leaked script that fans hated, character deaths, no Singer, the buzz was terrible!), and how well X-Men Origins: Wolverine performed (leaked workprint was ripped to shreds and widely available for viewing without bothering to see the film). Everyone was surprised at the weak performance of X-Men: First Class. There was huge surprise at Iron Man 3 crossing the billion mark.

I could go on and on, but where were all these trend analysts when all that stuff was happening? No one stepped forward and said 'No, hang on, we've analysed trends and X3 will do really well and beat Singer's Superman' or 'X-Men First Class will underperform' or whatever.

No one knew. No one said. Some people on forums might have speculated as such but where are all these analysts hiding all the time then? Isn't it time they spoke up and tried to warn studios how to stop certain films underperforming or to ignore bad buzz and be prepared for big success? Why was Paramount so stunned at Star Trek Into Darkness not having a $100m opening if there all these analysts and pundits offering expert predictions?

Like I said, no one knows anything. If they did, then the stuff that happens just would not happen.

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Old 09-08-2013, 09:38 PM   #139
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If the F4 cast is pretty solid and the movie has a better tone and a more intense approach, I think it will do fine, maybe around FC numbers, although if it has 3D, maybe it could do more, since it will appeal to young audience/kids much more than FC, I think.
I'm sure it will be the surprise hit of 2015!

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Old 09-08-2013, 10:30 PM   #140
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I don't agree with this at all. No one KNOWS how a movie is going to perform. There is just a lot of guesswork. But if there were a winning fornula, then everyone would follow it.

It was widely thought that Star Trek Into Darkness would do much better, especially on opening weekend. It was widely thought that Man of Steel would do much better. Everyone was surprised at how well X-Men The Last Stand performed (given the deadly combo of Brett Ratner, a leaked script that fans hated, character deaths, no Singer, the buzz was terrible!), and how well X-Men Origins: Wolverine performed (leaked workprint was ripped to shreds and widely available for viewing without bothering to see the film). Everyone was surprised at the weak performance of X-Men: First Class. There was huge surprise at Iron Man 3 crossing the billion mark.

I could go on and on, but where were all these trend analysts when all that stuff was happening? No one stepped forward and said 'No, hang on, we've analysed trends and X3 will do really well and beat Singer's Superman' or 'X-Men First Class will underperform' or whatever.

No one knew. No one said. Some people on forums might have speculated as such but where are all these analysts hiding all the time then? Isn't it time they spoke up and tried to warn studios how to stop certain films underperforming or to ignore bad buzz and be prepared for big success? Why was Paramount so stunned at Star Trek Into Darkness not having a $100m opening if there all these analysts and pundits offering expert predictions?

Like I said, no one knows anything. If they did, then the stuff that happens just would not happen.
It's not a question of predicting things down to a tee. But more of a situation where people ask; What is the highest ammount of money could this film possibly make? What is the film most likely gonna make? And what is the least this film is could make?.

Also Star Trek wasnt as shocking as you make out, it performed only slightly less than predictions (which I imagine were all high-end summer blockbuster mega predictions), the bad press was due to it being the first "underperformer" of the summer.

You also forget to factor in marketing, the money a studio puts into it, the ways a studio promote the movie. A TV spot and poster that has the title look like "star trek INTO DARKNESS" probably wasnt the best idea.

And if I remember correctly x3 was always gonna outgrossing superman.

Media pretty much like to sensationalise the BO. A good example would be the Great Gatsby, the film had poor reviews, bizarre cgi, and a hip hop soundtrack, it was easy to make people hate the movie. The media reported the prediction numbers based on the lowest the film could gross (which was bad), when the film came out and actually had a good OW, everyone pretended to be shocked, WB acted like they were cash generating kings, and we never heard of the Great Gatsby again.

First class's BO was also not very shocking. All new cast, cast not being very famous, most popular characters not present, lack of merchandising and the ads that it brings, fifth installment in superhero franchise kids aren't really familiar with, set in the 60's meaning that fans may be thrown off due to being unfamiliar with the settings etc.. The film still made decent money, but could have made more. That was the disappointment, it wasnt that the film made less than it was supposed to or should have, it was that it could have made more but didnt, same situation with Man Of Steel.


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Old 09-08-2013, 10:41 PM   #141
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May I ask you something GenUsername, you've been very negative about X-Men's box-office performance and I checked your posts and so far, you only posted in the threads related to X-Men. Maybe if you were an avid fan of another upcoming movie, I would understand your negativity towards X-Men's performance at the box-office but no. Why are you so negative about X-Men and their performance at the box-office?

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Old 09-09-2013, 12:34 AM   #142
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May I ask you something GenUsername, you've been very negative about X-Men's box-office performance and I checked your posts and so far, you only posted in the threads related to X-Men. Maybe if you were an avid fan of another upcoming movie, I would understand your negativity towards X-Men's performance at the box-office but no. Why are you so negative about X-Men and their performance at the box-office?
I don't get negative. There's nothing negative to get about. DOFP will be fine. It currently looks like (to me anyway) the least it could do is $460 mil, the number it's most likely gonna do is $525-550 mil, and the most it could possibly do is $575-600 mil, it's all good money (unless they have a ridiculous budget behind it). I place more emphasis on what could lower numbers rather than raise them. Reasons for higher numbers are always the same or blindingly obvious (painfully obvious avengers was gonna do well. never got the excitement). Things that could cause films to not reach their potential come from all corners, these are the things to worry about, and usually tend more of an impact on box office. Everything has potential, what are the things that limit that potential? It's also not enough to just give a reason a film will make money e.g "cast reunion", we should be looking at the phrase in detail; do people still remember this person, has this character not been around for so long that people don't care to see him, are the audience for these movies more tempted to watch due to the character or the actors playing them?. Sometimes things sound negative, but when it comes to talking about numbers there is not much to get positive about. One could argue that a film could do well because The international market is growing, that's all well and good but what about the series' current state domestically, would that lead to a situation where the franchise grows internationally and shrinks domestically, causing little growth on a Worldwide scale? For every positive reason, there are questions that that sound negative, that aim to gather more understanding and backing for the reliability of the positive phrase. Things sometimes sound negative.


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Old 09-09-2013, 04:20 AM   #143
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It's not a question of predicting things down to a tee. But more of a situation where people ask; What is the highest ammount of money could this film possibly make? What is the film most likely gonna make? And what is the least this film is could make?.

Also Star Trek wasnt as shocking as you make out, it performed only slightly less than predictions (which I imagine were all high-end summer blockbuster mega predictions), the bad press was due to it being the first "underperformer" of the summer.

You also forget to factor in marketing, the money a studio puts into it, the ways a studio promote the movie. A TV spot and poster that has the title look like "star trek INTO DARKNESS" probably wasnt the best idea.

And if I remember correctly x3 was always gonna outgrossing superman.

Media pretty much like to sensationalise the BO. A good example would be the Great Gatsby, the film had poor reviews, bizarre cgi, and a hip hop soundtrack, it was easy to make people hate the movie. The media reported the prediction numbers based on the lowest the film could gross (which was bad), when the film came out and actually had a good OW, everyone pretended to be shocked, WB acted like they were cash generating kings, and we never heard of the Great Gatsby again.

First class's BO was also not very shocking. All new cast, cast not being very famous, most popular characters not present, lack of merchandising and the ads that it brings, fifth installment in superhero franchise kids aren't really familiar with, set in the 60's meaning that fans may be thrown off due to being unfamiliar with the settings etc.. The film still made decent money, but could have made more. That was the disappointment, it wasnt that the film made less than it was supposed to or should have, it was that it could have made more but didnt, same situation with Man Of Steel.
But that's mostly all post-rationalisation, not prediction. We can all come up with our own explanations for a film not doing as well as thought, or doing far better. But before it's released, no one really knows. We just speculate about it on forums like this.

So do you work for a marketing department/company affiliated to Disney then?

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Old 09-09-2013, 08:45 AM   #144
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But that's mostly all post-rationalisation, not prediction. We can all come up with our own explanations for a film not doing as well as thought, or doing far better. But before it's released, no one really knows. We just speculate about it on forums like this.

So do you work for a marketing department/company affiliated to Disney then?
Not post rationalisation. One simply looks at a number of factors surrounding a movie, and how they could positively affect BO and negatively affect BO. Companies are also concerned with what could limit a films potential rather than what could boost its gross. And yes you could say that reasons behind a film not doing well is is just speculation but sometimes we need to accept fact: "if you didn't want this $200 million dollar blockbuster to not bomb you shouldn't have released it in January", "if you want your new console to sell better, you should release more games" surely this appears to be speculation but in reality it just makes sense. Look at the pros and cons of a situation, look at them and now think of the most likely situation. you predict the best scenario, the worse scenario, and the most likely scenario in order to prepare for them. Now my next examples is going to be pure, unfounded speculation: "catholic backlash causes Golden Compass to bomb", without knowing how much money US Catholics bring into the box office, how are we to know how much the Golden Compass lost due to "backlash", it can't be measured, we could measure the ammount of Catholics in the US, but what is the segment within the catholic community that are so offended by the movie, were they in its target audience?, were they interested in seeing the film before? Surely the ammount of people that actually attend church is smaller than the ammount of people that say they're catholic?
Also in this day and age most large companies have analyst working constantly, many companies also buy data from google and other search engines, in order to track popularity, apparantley it's shockingly accurate. There's not that many shocks in Hollywood. I also work in a section of a firm that analyses film, tv ratings, things of intrest (game releases, royal weddings, weather, news. websites etc) that could help companies know when to place ads, where to place ads, and who to aim it at (even though the "who" section is now getting phased out), we were slightly responsible for having the "Lincoln" ads play every 30 minutes during US election coverage on Sky News

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Old 09-09-2013, 10:03 AM   #145
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Well, at one point no one thought releasing a blockbuster in December was a good idea. Then along came the Lord of the Rings trilogy, fantastic enough to overcome that challenge!

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Old 09-09-2013, 10:22 AM   #146
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GenUser, how much do you think Thor 2 will do? more or less

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Old 09-09-2013, 12:14 PM   #147
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GenUser, how much do you think Thor 2 will do? more or less
it will do more. it should do Fantastic internationally. There's very little competition in November (no clue on enders game, boxoffice.com have it down for only $80 mil domestically with a $30mil OW, so take from that what you will). Theres a huge gap between Thor and Hunger Games and with hunger Games didnt really take off internationally like it did in the US, HG will go great internationally but Thor should surpass it and have some really strong legs. The film also has the Dark kight element where the villain is as popular as the hero, which could be used to Disney's advantage during the marketing process. Loki's appearance also ties the movie to The Avengers even more closely than Iron Man 3, and the film could (most likely) gain a massive sized bump from fans of that movie. And with Thor being one of Disney's last big movies before xmas, they might go all out with the merchandising side of things, I imagine we'll be getting inescapable toy ads through october, november and december. So yep Thor will probably wind up being in the Top ten highest grossing films this year, its position will however will be more in the hands of the international market. The only thing i see slowing down its momentum is poor reviews and WOM, and Syrian retaliation (which according to the news is more and more likely). Disneys treatment of Thor should tell us more about how they're gonna treat Marvel, and we'll get a clearer view on how much Cap 2 may gross. Also marvel have a Tv show on ABC, if that's not promotion i dont know what is

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Old 09-09-2013, 12:23 PM   #148
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good post and all....

but what about actual numbers? lol

whats your bet?

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Old 09-09-2013, 01:04 PM   #149
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good post and all....

but what about actual numbers? lol

whats your bet?
I would say the least it could do $275+ domestic, and $300mil+ internationally and I'm being very modest. With disney now taking over Marvels distribution, it's hard to pinpoint. The international box office for the movie is wide open, it's really gonna come down to the promotion, because right now this things potential is huge.

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Old 09-09-2013, 01:11 PM   #150
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Default Re: > Design FOX's Production AGENDA since DOFP (2014-2022)

good numbers.

and about all its potential.... do you think it could even reach 1 billion? or close to it? like 850m or so?

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