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View Poll Results: How much will The Wolverine make world wide?
$100M 3 3.66%
$200M 5 6.10%
$300M 13 15.85%
$400M 38 46.34%
$500M 14 17.07%
$600M 6 7.32%
$700M 2 2.44%
$800M 0 0%
$900M 0 0%
$1 Billion 1 1.22%
Voters: 82. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 07-27-2013, 09:20 PM   #276
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

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I think if DOFP underperforms next year, Fox will really be in a deep hole regarding the future of their X-Men franchise. They may be able to write The Wolverine off since it came out of the underwhelming Origins movie, but DOFP must do alot better. There can be no excuses anymore.
They should just continue releasing films with the original cast after X-Men: Days of Future Past. That cast might be more expensive but at least they will be using their most marketable and most selling point.

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Old 07-27-2013, 09:21 PM   #277
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

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They should just continue releasing films with the original cast after X-Men: Days of Future Past. That cast might be more expensive but at least they will be using their most marketable and most selling point.
Well they just did that and had their lowest opening since the first...

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Old 07-27-2013, 09:23 PM   #278
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by psylockolussus View Post
They should just continue releasing films with the original cast after X-Men: Days of Future Past. That cast might be more expensive but at least they will be using their most marketable and most selling point.
Hugh Jackman as Wolverine?

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Old 07-27-2013, 09:25 PM   #279
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by def28 View Post
Hugh Jackman as Wolverine?


Like I said Wolverine with the X-Men sells more than

Wolverine w/o the X-Men and X-Men w/o the Wolverine

they need each other to really get the attention of the mainstream audience, DOFP will do that next year.

Quote:
That cast might be more expensive but at least they will be using their most marketable and most selling point.
I specifically referred to the original cast NOT just Hugh Jackman.

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Old 07-27-2013, 09:33 PM   #280
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by DarthSkywalker View Post
That money is used to cover marketing and distribution cost. Also, you need a film with that sort of marketing potential to get that kind of money. Superman, Batman, Spider-Man, and now Iron-Man, yes. Wolverine? Not really.
Wolverine does have at least one of those deals with Audi and probably more. Wolverine will make a bit over half of what Superman made, is it crazy to think that Wolverine could make an extra 50 million that way? Of course not. Before the Man of Steel debuted the highest grossing wolverine movie was just under 400 million and the highest grossing Superman was just over 400million. Consider that.

And who cares what the money covers? whether they use sponsorships or not they have to pay for marketing which is why making double the budget goes to 2.5 to 1 to break even.

If you had read what I wrote, 300 million (2.5 times the budget) and Wolverine breaks even (give or take) including marketing. The net money from sponsors, DVDs, Blurays, rentals, TV Rights and additional B.O. gross are all profits.

Meaning, if Wolverine makes exactly 300millon everyone here would be calling it a flop when in reality it would still be netting probably over $100 million in profit over the next year.

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Old 07-27-2013, 09:34 PM   #281
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

DOFP will be the epidemy of big event. There hasn't been a big event movie from the X-Men franchise since X-Men The Last Stand. There is no way Fox will let this next movie go hidden till a month after release. If they do then perhaps it is time for Fox to let go of the property. With that being said the Wolverine is a character piece that deals with Wolverines inner struggles. This isn't your typical SuperHero movie like Man of Steel or Iron Man 3. The tone of the movie isn't for everyone obviously, going by what people say in the reviews. Especially if you read the original arc by Claremont and Miller you can see it is very character heavy and the action consists of Wolverine vs ninjas and Shingen. I haven't seen the movie yet, but from the reviews it seems like the movie is more reliant on character than spectacle. A more mature audience will probably enjoy the movie more either way it seems.

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Old 07-27-2013, 09:35 PM   #282
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by psylockolussus View Post


Like I said Wolverine with the X-Men sells more than

Wolverine w/o the X-Men and X-Men w/o the Wolverine

they need each other to really get the attention of the mainstream audience, DOFP will do that next year.



I specifically referred to the original cast NOT just Hugh Jackman.
How relevant is the X-Men brand in terms of film right now though? Feels like it hasn't really had that kind of shine since Last Stand. Especially in this climate with the DC push and in the middle of Phase 2.

Is it inconceivable that next year DoFP gets out grossed by TASM2, TWS and GotG?

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Old 07-27-2013, 09:42 PM   #283
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by DarthSkywalker View Post
How relevant is the X-Men brand in terms of film right now though? Feels like it hasn't really had that kind of shine since Last Stand. Especially in this climate with the DC push and in the middle of Phase 2.

Is it inconceivable that next year DoFP gets out grossed by TASM2, TWS and GotG?
We'll see. To date, FOX had the most success with the original cast when it comes to these X-Men films. And like I said before, spin-offs/prequels will not earn more money than the original/main series unless its a Star Wars/The Hobbit film.

Their return could rejuvenate the series at the box-office. And with these early buzz for DOFP, its a good sign. There was zero hype for The Wolverine last year and there was zero hype for X-Men: First Class before the trailer was released.

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Old 07-27-2013, 09:42 PM   #284
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by mmaeric View Post
Wolverine does have at least one of those deals with Audi and probably more. Wolverine will make a bit over half of what Superman made, is it crazy to think that Wolverine could make an extra 50 million that way? Of course not. Before the Man of Steel debuted the highest grossing wolverine movie was just under 400 million and the highest grossing Superman was just over 400million. Consider that.

And who cares what the money covers? whether they use sponsorships or not they have to pay for marketing which is why making double the budget goes to 2.5 to 1 to break even.

If you had read what I wrote, 300 million (2.5 times the budget) and Wolverine breaks even (give or take) including marketing. The net money from sponsors, DVDs, Blurays, rentals, TV Rights and additional B.O. gross are all profits.

Meaning, if Wolverine makes exactly 300millon everyone here would be calling it a flop when in reality it would still be netting probably over $100 million in profit over the next year.
$50m or a bit more makes sense. It just isn't clearing $100m. It also wouldn't go into the producers and shareholders pockets. That is how you cover the $150m plus marketing and distribution cost.

As for the Superman numbers. I'd Adjust for inflation and consider that the new film was considered a "Nolan" product. A lot of cache, thus a lot of sponsorship dollars. They were able to sell $12m worth of tickets to Wal-Mart before the film ever even opened. Next time around, they have an established franchise plus Batman. They might break $200m pre-film profit. Wolverine and/or the X-Men just isn't going to do that.

And I never said this movie wasn't going to make profit. Just not the numbers you are suggesting. It will be a modest win at the box office, and thus post-theatrical release it is going to be good profit which is strong business.

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Old 07-27-2013, 09:44 PM   #285
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

I never seen a flux like this, some outlets are calling it a 24 million dollar Friday?
LINK: http://variety.com/2013/film/news/th...nd-1200568726/

some are saying 21 million

LINK:http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmen...on-flourishes/

some are saying less as heard on the radio.

Has anyone ever seen such a box office flux?

what gives?

As of Saturday night Box Office Mojo is sticking to the 21 million exactly because they are not sure either.

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Old 07-27-2013, 09:45 PM   #286
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

The official estimate is $21M. The actual on Monday is not going to deviate much from that.

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Old 07-27-2013, 09:47 PM   #287
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by psylockolussus View Post
We'll see. To date, FOX had the most success with the original cast when it comes to these X-Men films. And like I said before, spin-offs/prequels will not earn more money than the original/main series unless its a Star Wars/The Hobbit film.

Their return could be rejuvenate the series at the box-office. And with these early buzz for DOFP is really a good sign. There was zero hype for The Wolverine last year and there was zero hype for X-Men: First Class before the trailer was released.
That is the thing though, Marvel has figured out how to possible do that. Look at their model. Everything basically spins off of The Avengers/Iron Man brand. Marvel, the studio name itself, is super hot right now, just like Nolan's.

Now the original cast might rejuvenate, but are there really any signs point to that? The media and fan buzz coming out of Comic-Con didn't seem that strong in comparison to the other big studio works.

Time will tell I guess.

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Old 07-27-2013, 09:49 PM   #288
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by Old Wolverine View Post
I never seen a flux like this, some outlets are calling it a 24 million dollar Friday?
LINK: http://variety.com/2013/film/news/th...nd-1200568726/

some are saying 21 million

LINK:http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmen...on-flourishes/

some are saying less as heard on the radio.

Has anyone ever seen such a box office flux?

what gives?

As of Saturday night Box Office Mojo is sticking to the 21 million exactly because they are not sure either.
Um... this actually happens every single weekend. There are early estimates on Friday night (which is when the Variety article is written), and then the more accurate estimates come out on Saturday morning (which your Forbes link is based on).

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Old 07-27-2013, 09:50 PM   #289
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by Old Wolverine View Post
I never seen a flux like this, some outlets are calling it a 24 million dollar Friday?
LINK: http://variety.com/2013/film/news/th...nd-1200568726/

some are saying 21 million

LINK:http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmen...on-flourishes/

some are saying less as heard on the radio.

Has anyone ever seen such a box office flux?

what gives?

As of Saturday night Box Office Mojo is sticking to the 21 million exactly because they are not sure either.
I am not a movie analyst, but perhaps the poor marketing, the bad reviews of Wolverine Origins, this movie being more a character piece, and the last time the X-Men had some buzz was in 2006 when the Last Stand was in theaters. Although the final numbers will come soon.

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Old 07-27-2013, 09:50 PM   #290
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Old Wolverine View Post
I never seen a flux like this, some outlets are calling it a 24 million dollar Friday?
LINK: http://variety.com/2013/film/news/th...nd-1200568726/

some are saying 21 million

LINK:http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmen...on-flourishes/

some are saying less as heard on the radio.

Has anyone ever seen such a box office flux?

what gives?

As of Saturday night Box Office Mojo is sticking to the 21 million exactly because they are not sure either.
The Variety numbers are old. Deadlines and Forbes early Sat updates are the most recent numbers and reflect each other.

http://www.deadline.com/2013/07/wolv...y-61m-weekend/

Quote:
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Um... this actually happens every single weekend. There are early estimates on Friday night (which is when the Variety article is written), and then the more accurate estimates come out on Saturday morning (which your Forbes link is based on).

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Old 07-27-2013, 09:50 PM   #291
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

24mil was just a very early projection. All the outlets are saying the same thing, the official estimate is 21mil.

EDIT: You guys beat me to the punch.

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Old 07-27-2013, 09:52 PM   #292
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$50m or a bit more makes sense. It just isn't clearing $100m. It also wouldn't go into the producers and shareholders pockets. That is how you cover the $150m plus marketing and distribution cost.

As for the Superman numbers. I'd Adjust for inflation and consider that the new film was considered a "Nolan" product. A lot of cache, thus a lot of sponsorship dollars. They were able to sell $12m worth of tickets to Wal-Mart before the film ever even opened. Next time around, they have an established franchise plus Batman. They might break $200m pre-film profit. Wolverine and/or the X-Men just isn't going to do that.

And I never said this movie wasn't going to make profit. Just not the numbers you are suggesting. It will be a modest win at the box office, and thus post-theatrical release it is going to be good profit which is strong business.
As long as the movie makes 300million worldwide it absolutely will make 100million profit without breaking a swear.

App. 45-50% of all B.0 passed 300 million will be profit

They will make millions selling the television rights

They will make millions fromrentals

They will make millions from Bluray/DVD sales

They will make a nice sum from digital downloads

they already made millions from Product Placement Sponsors.

So yes, it will

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Old 07-27-2013, 09:52 PM   #293
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24mil was just a very early projection. All the outlets are saying the same thing, the official estimate is 21mil.
SPIDEY getting slow.

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Old 07-27-2013, 09:54 PM   #294
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

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SPIDEY getting slow.
I know.

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Old 07-27-2013, 09:55 PM   #295
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

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As long as the movie makes 300million worldwide it absolutely will make 100million profit without breaking a swear.

App. 45-50% of all B.0 passed 300 million will be profit

They will make millions selling the television rights

They will make millions fromrentals

They will make millions from Bluray/DVD sales

They will make a nice sum from digital downloads

they already made millions from Product Placement Sponsors.

So yes, it will
You are not considering marketing and distribution. One of the reasons why many list overseas profits for films as low as 15% is because of international marketing and distribution cost. Even if they only spent $80m on marketing, double that in terms of cost of distribution. This wasn't a small release.

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I know.
You get hit with poison? Your Spider-sense going?

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Old 07-27-2013, 10:02 PM   #296
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

You guys just had quicker fingers this time is all.

I'm dying to know what todays number is going to be. I'm thinking it drops 10-15% today, which is a pretty standard drop for these kinds of openers.

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Old 07-27-2013, 10:02 PM   #297
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You are not considering marketing and distribution. One of the reasons why many list overseas profits for films as low as 15% is because of international marketing and distribution cost. Even if they only spent $80m on marketing, double that in terms of cost of distribution. This wasn't a small release.
Most film insiders say double your budget is breaking even, and 2.5-1 will account for all marketing.

I keep saying that I am accounting for marketing. And Wolverine has not been breaking the bank with promotion.

Either way, as long as it gets into China its trending toward an easy 350million plus finish. So even if the full BO breaks even at 350-400 million

you still have product placement (which you said yourself is over 50million)

DVD and Bluray sells

Tv Rights (at least 20-30 million)

Rentals

Digital Downloads

This movie will profit 100 million.

Movies like Dark Knight Rises profited half a billion quickly.

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Old 07-27-2013, 10:06 PM   #298
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Most film insiders say double your budget is breaking even, and 2.5-1 will account for all marketing.

I keep saying that I am accounting for marketing. And Wolverine has not been breaking the bank with promotion.

Either way, as long as it gets into China its trending toward an easy 350million plus finish. So even if the full BO breaks even at 350-400 million

you still have product placement (which you said yourself is over 50million)

DVD and Bluray sells

Tv Rights (at least 20-30 million)

Rentals

Digital Downloads

This movie will profit 100 million.

Movies like Dark Knight Rises profited half a billion quickly.
Those are domestic numbers. If you do that domestically, considering the take, yes, you will see profits at the end of the day. And I never said it was "over $50m". I just said that could make sense.

And honestly, don't compare it to movies like TDKR and Avengers. They make the gross amounts of money that they can claim profit after their first weekend of release.

It will make profit. $100m? Lets see oversea numbers first.

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Old 07-27-2013, 10:07 PM   #299
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HK Box Office Early Saturday Results

source - http://hkreleasedates.blogspot.com/s...nd%20estimates


Saturday July 27
Rank Movie LW TW WKD % chg QD % chg
1 The Wolverine -- 33,794 -- +48.7%
2 Monsters University 54,041 25,743 -52.4% +61.7%
3 SDU: Sex Duties Unit 7,108 21,916 +208.3% +25.9%
4 Pacific Rim 41,986 21,455 -48.9% +45.6%
5 Despicable Me 2 10,138 8,529 -15.9% +93.3%
6 Doraemon: Nobita's Secret Gadget Museum -- 7,197 -- +42.7%
7 Turbo 7,994 3,865 -51.7% +39.4%
8 Tales from the Dark Pt. 1 7,256 2,552 -64.8% +28.4%
9 Tiny Times -- 1,907 -- +29.2%
10 HK: Forbidden Super Hero -- 1,575 -- -- Very good for The Wolverine. Already past $900,000 after 3 days. Monsters University had a big increase today. I suspect that it fell less than 50% in gross. Pacific Rim is doing very well. Outstanding hold for Despicable Me 2. Doraemon did quite good. It has fallen off a bit from last year's Doraemon but it is still ahead in gross. Turbo did OK. Tales from the Dark 1 has not done well since opening weekend. Tiny Times is nudging up a bit. Fantastic for HK: Forbidden Super Hero. Average people per showing was over 125 today.

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Old 07-27-2013, 10:10 PM   #300
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

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Marvel has figured out how to possible do that. Look at their model. Everything basically spins off of The Avengers/Iron Man brand. Marvel, the studio name itself, is super hot right now, just like Nolan's.
I find it ridiculous when people bring this up, like as if the Avengers released a spin-off film. Iron Man, Incredible Hulk, Thor and Captain America came out first before The Avengers, so those 4 aren't spin-offs of The Avengers. They part of 1 universe but none of those films are spin-offs.

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