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View Poll Results: How much will The Wolverine make world wide?
$100M 3 3.66%
$200M 5 6.10%
$300M 13 15.85%
$400M 38 46.34%
$500M 14 17.07%
$600M 6 7.32%
$700M 2 2.44%
$800M 0 0%
$900M 0 0%
$1 Billion 1 1.22%
Voters: 82. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 08-18-2013, 01:57 PM   #951
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

Total Lifetime Grosses
Domestic: $120,458,000
+ Foreign: $214,800,000

Worldwide: $335,258,000

Another 65 million to go!!

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Old 08-18-2013, 02:24 PM   #952
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

It's doing quite well. When it opens in Japan, it should be somewhat noticeable at the time. I'm also pretty sure it will do very well in the blu-ray/DVD - market especially when the extended R-rated cut is on the works.

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Old 08-18-2013, 03:28 PM   #953
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

So it's now the second highest grossing X-Men movie Internationally .

I wonder where it will actually end up when it's all said and done? Really curious what Japan's numbers will be?

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Old 08-18-2013, 03:29 PM   #954
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

Another $10m internationally and it will pass X3.

DoFP will be big overseas.

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Old 08-18-2013, 03:52 PM   #955
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

so basically, The Wolverine is a hit internationally and a flop on USA. (compared to the franchise and Hugh's status)

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Old 08-18-2013, 03:54 PM   #956
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

No it's not a flop. Disappointing maybe. It's more profitable then FC domestically because of it's budget.


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Old 08-18-2013, 04:41 PM   #957
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

The wolverine Is more a modest domestic hit.Yeah It underperformed but so did a lot of
july and august releases.

The wolverine Is going to surpess The Last Stand's foreign box office.So fox will make money off the wolverine.

DOFP Is going to do very well internationally.It's only domesicly where we have any concerns.Still I can't Imagine It not reversing the trend of each film less.But,fox Is already promating DOFP more than eather First Class or the wolverine.

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Old 08-18-2013, 05:03 PM   #958
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Snikt View Post
So it's now the second highest grossing X-Men movie Internationally .

I wonder where it will actually end up when it's all said and done? Really curious what Japan's numbers will be?
Could be around the 15-20million mark possibly.

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Old 08-18-2013, 06:26 PM   #959
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

We can probably contribute a lot of these international hits lately due to the rather diverse international casts. Wolverine had its large Japanese cast members. Pacific Rim had those like Rinko and Idris Elba. DoFP will have Bingbing and Sy to add to their international flavor to maybe attract in those areas.

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Old 08-18-2013, 10:52 PM   #960
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Angamb View Post
so basically, The Wolverine is a hit internationally and a flop on USA. (compared to the franchise and Hugh's status)
TW is not a flop in U.S. It already earned its budget back just with the domesic bo numbers. Which cannot be said to FC.

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Old 08-18-2013, 11:33 PM   #961
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

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so basically, The Wolverine is a hit internationally and a flop on USA. (compared to the franchise and Hugh's status)
Nope, not a flop.

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Old 08-19-2013, 06:20 AM   #962
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by psylockolussus View Post
TW is not a flop in U.S. It already earned its budget back just with the domesic bo numbers. Which cannot be said to FC.
For it to earn its budget back on the domestic BO, it would need to double its budget. It is a disappointing US release, just for the simple fact that it shows a continuing decline in terms of domestic box office. Far from a flop, just underwhelming.

Quote:
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We can probably contribute a lot of these international hits lately due to the rather diverse international casts. Wolverine had its large Japanese cast members. Pacific Rim had those like Rinko and Idris Elba. DoFP will have Bingbing and Sy to add to their international flavor to maybe attract in those areas.
I think a lot of it has to do with the international market growing and growing. Releasing a film in Brazil, Russia, China, Mexico, etc. is a lot different then it was 10 years ago. The market is expanding.

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Old 08-19-2013, 07:55 AM   #963
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by psylockolussus View Post
TW is not a flop in U.S. It already earned its budget back just with the domesic bo numbers. Which cannot be said to FC.
The wolverine is 3D and had a smaller budget, can't compare to FC

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Old 08-19-2013, 08:05 AM   #964
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by psylockolussus View Post
TW is not a flop in U.S. It already earned its budget back just with the domesic bo numbers.
The studio only gets around half of that current domestic total, so no. Now if you're talking worldwide gross it's a different story.

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Old 08-19-2013, 10:46 AM   #965
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

Not every film earns back double it's budget in the USA. If a film costs $120 million and earns roughly $130 million domestic but WW it earns $700 million, are you still going to call it a flop? No. That's a hit

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Old 08-19-2013, 05:44 PM   #966
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

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Not every film earns back double it's budget in the USA. If a film costs $120 million and earns roughly $130 million domestic but WW it earns $700 million, are you still going to call it a flop? No. That's a hit

700 million ww would be a hit.. but thats not the Wolverine WW gross... Some call it a flop because it isnt at 700 Million WW.

it is at $335 million WW right now. Far from $700 million. People hope it makes 400-430 million WW.

Yes "flop" is the wrong word for the Wolverine number. I think everybody hoped it makes more. The Studio hoped it brings more into their bankaccount but it`s not a flop. But right know it still didnt makes its money back. Fox only gets half the domestic gross and only like 25% of the international gross.

And even if they break even thatīs not what FOX wants. They want to make big money. They donīt work on a movie to break even. They only have so many movie releases every year. So every movie counts! If a movie doesnīt make alot of money they start to think" well maybe a standalone movie for a Xmen character was the wrong idea. Lets focus on the whole team from now on".


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Old 08-19-2013, 06:26 PM   #967
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To me, no matter how you look at it (unless the budget it something like $225 or $250 million) a movie grossing $400 million WW is very good number. And with a $120 million budget...that's pretty good.

It's going to end up, I'm pretty sure, between $373-$400 million (Between Origins and X2).

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Old 08-19-2013, 06:38 PM   #968
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Sure 400 Million is a good number but i dont think FOX were hoping for "just" $400 Million.

If if it`s true that FOX only gets 50% of domestic and 25% of foreign gross then they are at around $113 Million right now. 60 Million domestic and 53Million international.

Didnt even make their budget back right now.

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Old 08-19-2013, 08:02 PM   #969
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No X Men movie has even made 500m so if true then all of the X-Men movies have failed in that regard. Which I don't believe. I thought the distributor got more like 70% of ticket sales domestic for a set time. But I really don't know how this **** works. I've read way too many things and different opinions. All I know is that if you think The Wolverine failed then so did practically every other movie this summer haha. Its the 16th highest grossest film this year so far and has a lower budget then most the big flicks.


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Old 08-19-2013, 08:07 PM   #970
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Sure 400 Million is a good number but i dont think FOX were hoping for "just" $400 Million.

If if it`s true that FOX only gets 50% of domestic and 25% of foreign gross then they are at around $113 Million right now. 60 Million domestic and 53Million international.

Didnt even make their budget back right now.
International varies from country to country, film to film. I'm not 100% certain but in the UK cinemas get barely anything from certain movies, and receive most of their money from the snack bar. So I think your 25% is a bit too low. EDIT it's 40% the studios take from the overseas gross, and for TW it's most likely that Fox took 90% OW and then 50% in the weeks later.

You also forgot to add on the marketing budget and the money that gets taken out off the final gross to pay some of the companies that worked of the film, and now Marvel are more serious they will probably take a bigger percentage of the gross aswell (compared to the 2% they used to get)

Hollywood in general just has a messed up accountancy system.


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Old 08-19-2013, 08:31 PM   #971
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No X Men movie has even made 500m so if true then all of the X-Men movies have failed in that regard. Which I don't believe. I thought the distributor got more like 70% of ticket sales domestic for a set time. But I really don't know how this **** works. I've read way too many things and different opinions. All I know is that if you think The Wolverine failed then so did practically every other movie this summer haha. Its the 16th highest grossest film this year so far and has a lower budget then most the big flicks.
Inflation. That is why the older X-Men films were great successes and the recent ones, not quite as much. And the set amount of time for taking a huge cut is the first week.

Quote:
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Sure 400 Million is a good number but i dont think FOX were hoping for "just" $400 Million.

If if it`s true that FOX only gets 50% of domestic and 25% of foreign gross then they are at around $113 Million right now. 60 Million domestic and 53Million international.

Didnt even make their budget back right now.
Foreign gross is hard to track. It isn't uncommon to sell the rights to certain regions for upfront money.

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Old 08-19-2013, 08:43 PM   #972
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Inflation. That is why the older X-Men films were great successes and the recent ones, not quite as much. And the set amount of time for taking a huge cut is the first week.
Gotcha thanks.

Because of the budget difference say between Wolverine and X3 or since ww numbers were not as strong back then for the First X-Men doesn't that still come out similar in the end for the studio? Or is there really gonna be that big of difference profit wise by the time TW finishes its WW run.


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Old 08-19-2013, 09:02 PM   #973
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Gotcha thanks.

Because of the budget difference say between Wolverine and X3 or since ww numbers were not as strong back then for the First X-Men doesn't that still come out similar in the end for the studio?
X3 was a ridiculously bad decision. The rushed production combined with the luke warm reception from fans and critics, ended up making it not all that worthwhile of an investment. They overspent because they rushed it, then they lost the big boost they should have got from X2 because it was pretty disliked. What probably helped the film the most is that there was a lot of double-dipping on the home release, because it came out for both DVD and blu-ray during the early transition period.

If I was going to estimate I'd say The Wolverine will come out ahead and probably end up being the third most successful film of the franchise so far in terms of profitability. While it did have a strong marketing campaign, I don't think they spent anywhere near the same amount of dollars on it that they did with TLS or even Origins (FC was very low key in comparison).

Where the Wolverine is going to make really good money imo is the home media release. If they really do have the "violent director's cut" is going to make it a far more intriguing early purchase.

The worrying trend is the domestic box office.

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Old 08-19-2013, 09:08 PM   #974
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Where the Wolverine is going to make really good money imo is the home media release. If they really do have the "violent director's cut" is going to make it a far more intriguing early purchase.
I wasn't even gonna consider buying this on blu ray (thought it was meh) until I heard about this cut, if it happens i'll be there.

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Old 08-19-2013, 09:19 PM   #975
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I wasn't even gonna consider buying this on blu ray (thought it was meh) until I heard about this cut, if it happens i'll be there.
See, proof!!!

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