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View Poll Results: DOFP Worldwide prediction
+ $300 million 7 5.07%
+ $400 5 3.62%
+ $500 23 16.67%
+ $600 32 23.19%
+ $700 38 27.54%
+ $800 16 11.59%
+ $900 10 7.25%
+ 1 Billion 5 3.62%
1,100 - 1,250 1 0.72%
1,250 -1,500 0 0%
+ 1,500 1 0.72%
Voters: 138. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 04-09-2013, 05:30 AM   #126
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Default Re: 'Days Of Future Past' BOX-OFFICE worldwide prediction

I wouldn't expect media outlets to describe Days of Future Past as an "event" movie yet. Still, that doesn't mean that isn't what Fox is aiming for. It's clear to those following Days of Future Past closely that this isn't a typical sequel and sounds far more ambitious than anything the X-Men franchise has done before. In fact, it sounds a lot more ambitious than what a lot of franchises have done before. The ingredients are there. We'll just have to see what comes of it.

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Old 04-09-2013, 05:53 AM   #127
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Default Re: 'Days Of Future Past' BOX-OFFICE worldwide prediction

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Originally Posted by Mrs Vimes View Post
Plus, "both series" is a bit of a stretch IMO. First Class was a prequel which was mostly about the young characters from the original series - who look to be the only ones to be in DoFP. It's not like they're combining two completely different series about completely different characters.
Agreed. This all flows on one timeline about the same characters and series. For now at least.


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Old 04-09-2013, 06:57 AM   #128
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Default Re: 'Days Of Future Past' BOX-OFFICE worldwide prediction

what the hell have happened since yesterday? All these comments, lol

Let me read the last two pages now, lol

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Old 04-09-2013, 07:23 AM   #129
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lightning Strykez! View Post
Okay, we need to officially shut down this whole Cap vs. Wolverine thing, as if the fact that Wolverine outgrossed Cap is a testament of its staying power. It actually reveals the exact opposite. Behold:

X-Men Origins: Wolverine= $373,062,864
Captain America= 368,608,363


Okay. Am I the only one who sees how f***ing close these numbers are? That's damn disturbing. By the time XOW came out, Wolverine had been the lead for three X-Men films...plenty of set-up. Next to Spider-Man, he is hands-down Marvel's most popular male character and always has been (he's in every goddamn comic book, even non-X-Men titles, plus his own multiple titles). His film featured appearances from kid Cyclops, Emma Frost, Baby Storm, Gambit, Deadpool, every frigging mutant cameo of all time.

Now, let's look at Captain America by comparison: significantly lesser known and yet his first film (one that came without any set up, no trilogy, etc.) came within spitting distance of Wolverine's first "solo" film. That's on "What the hell" levels, people.

Translation: Audiences are burned out on Wolverine. And I think some of you guys are seriously overestimating his box office pull at this point.
FINALLY I read a comment about Wolverine that I totally agree with. (and probably the comment by you I most agree with, )

Wolverine isnt that big as some fans make it seem on this board, and other boards.

Ive said it a few times already, but XOW wasnt just a Wolverine movie, it was a movie about Wolverine and his friends Deadpool, Gambit.

They arent c-list mutants exactly, you know. So, please, all this talk all these months about 'Wolverine is really important' is a joke.

Yes, FC made less on USA, but it did more than $200m on foreign market, that WAS a success.

And there's a serious issue regarding USA, not just for FC, but for many blockbusters already.

USA is starting to slowly become a smaller market than the foreign one.


There are many recent movies that have done more than $200m internationally, but havent reached the 200 mark on USA.

Some of the latest names are:

First Class
Rise of the planet of the apes
John Carter
Battleship
Prometheus

ALL these movies have done MORE than $200m on the foreign market, exactly what happened with X2 and X3.

More than 200 millions on the foreign market is a success for the studios, but again, the problem is with USA.

So its not about Wolverine was the reason FC 'underperformed' on USA, its about USA slowly becoming a smaller market to many blockbusters. As the numbers prove.

These big movie studios should really start to analyze this issue, since its hurting their big movies.
* But the positive thing is that a good part of those previous tittles will get a sequel, so we could say that the studios are pleased with the numbers, and believe in these products.

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Old 04-09-2013, 07:31 AM   #130
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Default Re: 'Days Of Future Past' BOX-OFFICE worldwide prediction

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Originally Posted by BMM View Post
I wouldn't expect media outlets to describe Days of Future Past as an "event" movie yet. Still, that doesn't mean that isn't what Fox is aiming for.
I'm sure they do. But I think that what's likely to create this image of an "event" movie is the scale and the spectacle, which is not going to come across until there's actual footage. Not necessarily the combining of the two casts. After all, what's so novel about X-Men movies having a large ensemble cast?

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Old 04-09-2013, 07:51 AM   #131
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Default Re: 'Days Of Future Past' BOX-OFFICE worldwide prediction

I figured it will make $900mil. Having 3D and Coming off the success of FC and hopefully a successful Wolverine film plus bringing back the OT cast and New Cast as well as addition of awesomeness himself, Peter Dinklage.... I'm sure that initial trailer will generate enough buzz to make DOFP a real event film ala Avengers in the minds of GA. However, I feel the Fox made too many mistakes with the franchise to conjure up the same excitement as Avengers did. That's why I feel it will just fall short of the Billion Dollar mark.

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Old 04-09-2013, 07:56 AM   #132
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Default Re: 'Days Of Future Past' BOX-OFFICE worldwide prediction

Angamb, it's not that you don't make some good (albeit random) points about the increased importance of foreign markets, but you are kidding yourself.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mrs Vimes View Post
I'm sure they do. But I think that what's likely to create this image of an "event" movie is the scale and the spectacle, which is not going to come across until there's actual footage. Not necessarily the combining of the two casts. After all, what's so novel about X-Men movies having a large ensemble cast?
I think all of the above are why Fox thinks Days of Future Past could be an event movie. Also, it's not the size of the cast that's novel. It's the combination of old and new, and the joining of forces between the two. People just seem to go for that kind of stuff.


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Old 04-09-2013, 07:56 AM   #133
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Default Re: 'Days Of Future Past' BOX-OFFICE worldwide prediction

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Originally Posted by M-2 View Post
I figured it will make $900mil. Having 3D and Coming off the success of FC and hopefully a successful Wolverine film plus bringing back the OT cast and New Cast as well as addition of awesomeness himself, Peter Dinklage.... I'm sure that initial trailer will generate enough buzz to make DOFP a real event film ala Avengers in the minds of GA. However, I feel the Fox made too many mistakes with the franchise to conjure up the same excitement as Avengers did. That's why I feel it will just fall short of the Billion Dollar mark.
finally some more positive thinking!

800-900 would be a great success. So lets hope the first teaser already gives us something awesome, even if its short.

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Old 04-09-2013, 10:14 AM   #134
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Default Re: 'Days Of Future Past' BOX-OFFICE worldwide prediction

Ya know, when you take X2 or 3, and adjust it for nearly 10 years of inflation, plus 3D prices, it's really not THAT far off from some of the bigger CBM's nowadays.

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Old 04-09-2013, 12:48 PM   #135
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Default Re: 'Days Of Future Past' BOX-OFFICE worldwide prediction

Quote:
Originally Posted by psylockolussus View Post
And LOL @ the thought of guardians of the Galaxy's potential to be a billion dollar film! You have too much faith in Marvel Studios,
Nobody has said this..

Where you seem to be convinced that DOFP will do $900m+ & the only way GotG could beat that is to hit $1b, others (myself included) have much more modest predictions for DOFP (at least for now) of around $450-600m. Unless GotG is crap it should do $400m minimum, but could go a good deal higher (I'd say $400m-$550m). So from that perspective it's solid competition for DOFP.

Quote:
but I'm telling you right now, sometime in this decade, people will get tired of their films and Marvel would go back to releasing 1 movie a year.
Yet you're claiming people will be excited for the 7th film in a series that has 2 of the worst films of the genre from a studio that has made several other of the worst in the genre?

Quote:
LOL the success of the Avengers will not have a big impact on Guardians of the Galaxy.
GotG is in a better position now than Cap, Thor, TIH & IM were this far from their debuts, and that's specifically because of it's association with the now hugely successful MCU.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Zant View Post
I see only 7 films coming out next year making more money. Hunger games, Hobbit, Pixar movie, Spiderman, Transformers 4, How to train your dragon 2,and maybe a sci-fi movie
My count for potential $500m+ films:
The Hobbit
The Hunger Games
Bond 24 (moved to 2015?)
Interstellar (Chris Nolan sci-fi)
TASM2
How to Train Your Dragon 2
Cap2
DOFP
GotG
The Good Dinosaur (Pixar)
Fast 7
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Rio 2
Despicable Me Minions

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Old 04-09-2013, 01:07 PM   #136
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Default Re: 'Days Of Future Past' BOX-OFFICE worldwide prediction

Your taking It for granted any film by DIsney/MS will crap gold now.GotG has an idenity problem even to comic book fans.It's more unknown to GA than X-Men was back In 2000.

Days of future past has excitement of seeing several cast members from X2 and Last Stand returning.

No Marvel studios film not starring Robert Downey JR has hit 200 Million domesticly.There have been plenty of event films like Star Wars,Raiders of the Lost ark,
Batman,and SPider-Man that has done less with sequel.The Idea of cap sequel guranteed to do Iron Man business or GotG Avengers or Dark Knight business Is having
blinders on.

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Old 04-09-2013, 02:31 PM   #137
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Default Re: 'Days Of Future Past' BOX-OFFICE worldwide prediction

Quote:
Originally Posted by marvelrobbins View Post
Your taking It for granted any film by DIsney/MS will crap gold now.GotG has an idenity problem even to comic book fans.It's more unknown to GA than X-Men was back In 2000.

Days of future past has excitement of seeing several cast members from X2 and Last Stand returning.

No Marvel studios film not starring Robert Downey JR has hit 200 Million domesticly.There have been plenty of event films like Star Wars,Raiders of the Lost ark,
Batman,and SPider-Man that has done less with sequel.The Idea of cap sequel guranteed to do Iron Man business or GotG Avengers or Dark Knight business Is having
blinders on.
There have been five FOX X-Men films and six MCU films to date, with one of each being released this summer. The median world wide box office return for the Disney/Marvel films is $517 million, with the mean of $634 bumped up by the Avengers mammoth returns. The mean and median for the FOX X-Men films are similar at $378 and $373 million, respectively.

Is it "having blinders on" to look at the actual results and wonder why DOFP is expected to top CA:TWS and GOTG? Personally, I think the three films will be close in terms of box office returns and end up between $450 and $500 million worldwide.

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Old 04-09-2013, 03:11 PM   #138
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Default Re: 'Days Of Future Past' BOX-OFFICE worldwide prediction

The top comic book film of 2014 may be the Amazing Spider-Man 2..

Best case sceniro for DOFp Is 500 Million worldwide.250 Million domesticlly and 250 Million
overseas.Which If you adjust for Inflination Is similar to X2 and Last Stand.Don't forget DOFP will be darker than anything you will ever get from Disney.

Cap back In 2011 couldn't outmatch what Origins did domesticly 2 years earlier.And overseas First Class did better.The Idea the sequel Is guranteed to do Iron Man
business Is crazy.Plus It opens 4 weeks before the Amazing Spider-Man 2.Spider-Man Is still bigger than Cap or Thor.GotG unknown to GA without Robert Downey JR opens 2 weeks after Dofp.The Idea It Is guranteed to be smash but not Dofp.

It's like those who expect Man of Steel to be a Dark Knight level hit when It's more likely
to be a Batman Begins level hit.Funny how they don't want to release new footage even In first TV spot.And It opens In 2 months.I have seen more In Domestic and international
trailers for the Wolverine than I have for Man of steel.

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Old 04-09-2013, 03:27 PM   #139
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Default Re: 'Days Of Future Past' BOX-OFFICE worldwide prediction

Quote:
Originally Posted by Zarex View Post
There have been five FOX X-Men films and six MCU films to date, with one of each being released this summer. The median world wide box office return for the Disney/Marvel films is $517 million, with the mean of $634 bumped up by the Avengers mammoth returns. The mean and median for the FOX X-Men films are similar at $378 and $373 million, respectively.

Is it "having blinders on" to look at the actual results and wonder why DOFP is expected to top CA:TWS and GOTG? Personally, I think the three films will be close in terms of box office returns and end up between $450 and $500 million worldwide.
But what's the point in throwing out all those means and averages when you have the ACTUAL numbers of Cap and X3 to compare?

Cap 1 did $369M in 2011. X3 (the last X-Men movie with the full cast) did $459M in 2006, which comes out to approx. $510M in 2011 dollars. And in 2006, international numbers were nothing like they are now. These are the figures that are relevant to compare.

Yes Marvel/Disney has a good average, but just because Iron Man and The Avengers are bringing up the average doesn't mean that Cap is suddenly going to do those numbers as well. I think GotG will do well and possibly great if it's fun and well made. But your talk of averages is definitely just using the good to coverup the not so good.

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Old 04-09-2013, 03:58 PM   #140
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Default Re: 'Days Of Future Past' BOX-OFFICE worldwide prediction

These predictions seem reasonable to me.

2013

IM3: 850m -1B
MoS: 650m - 850m (think Nolan connection will make it closer to the latter)
TDW: 500m - 650m
The Wolverine: 350m - 450m

2014

TASM 2: 800m - 900m
DoFP: 550m - 650m
Cap2: 450m -500m
GotG: 400m - 450m

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Old 04-09-2013, 04:30 PM   #141
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SoNicRaDiATioN View Post
These predictions seem reasonable to me.

2013

IM3: 850m -1B
MoS: 650m - 850m (think Nolan connection will make it closer to the latter)
TDW: 500m - 650m
The Wolverine: 350m - 450m

2014

TASM 2: 800m - 900m
DoFP: 550m - 650m
Cap2: 450m -500m
GotG: 400m - 450m
Yeah, I'm sure there will be one or two surprises but those are pretty solid predictions.

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Old 04-09-2013, 04:36 PM   #142
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Originally Posted by marvelrobbins View Post
Your taking It for granted any film by DIsney/MS will crap gold now.GotG has an idenity problem even to comic book fans.It's more unknown to GA than X-Men was back In 2000.
Not any more, did you see the latest comics sales? The Marvel Now launch for GOTG sold more then X-Men and Avengers main titles besides Uncanny Avengers. By a decent amount too. People are very aware with all the news on the film.


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Old 04-09-2013, 04:41 PM   #143
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Default Re: 'Days Of Future Past' BOX-OFFICE worldwide prediction

Cool post and format, SoNicRaDiATioN.

These are mines:

2013

IM3: 800m -1B
MoS: 600m - 750m
The Wolverine: 350m - 500m
Thor: TDW: 500m - 650m

2014

Cap2: 450m -550m
Amazing Spiderman 2: 850m - 1B
X-Men: DoFP: 700m - 900m
GotG: 400m - 500m

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Old 04-09-2013, 04:47 PM   #144
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Default Re: 'Days Of Future Past' BOX-OFFICE worldwide prediction

Quote:
Originally Posted by SoNicRaDiATioN View Post
These predictions seem reasonable to me.

2013

IM3: 850m -1B
MoS: 650m - 850m (think Nolan connection will make it closer to the latter)
TDW: 500m - 650m
The Wolverine: 350m - 450m

2014

TASM 2: 800m - 900m
DoFP: 550m - 650m
Cap2: 450m -500m
GotG: 400m - 450m
Not too ridiculous. I'd say IM3, TASM2 and Wolverine are in the right range. You're probably high-balling MoS and DoFP a bit and low-balling Thor2 and Cap2. GotG is a real wild card being the only one not already part of an existing franchise(though it being part of the MCU means it's part of a mega-franchise).

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Old 04-09-2013, 05:07 PM   #145
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Default Re: 'Days Of Future Past' BOX-OFFICE worldwide prediction

Iron Man 3 Is going to do at least 600 Million.300 Million domesticly and 300 million overseas.

Man of steel Is being high balled.it Is going to be a Batman Begins and Not a Dark Knight.

Thor Is going to do better overseas.that how the first film went.

The Wolverine's best case Is 180 Million Domesticly and 200 Million overseas.

The Amazing Spider-Man 2 could 700 to 800 Million worldwide.

DOFP's best case Is 500 Million.But cap at 500 and GOTG at 450 million while unknown to GA with maybe Zoe Saldana as only familar face.

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Old 04-09-2013, 05:10 PM   #146
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Default Re: 'Days Of Future Past' BOX-OFFICE worldwide prediction

really low prediction about this sequel, I see, marvelrobbins.

is everyone forgetting the 3D release or what? lol

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Old 04-09-2013, 05:18 PM   #147
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Default Re: 'Days Of Future Past' BOX-OFFICE worldwide prediction

I am being conservative on It.Plus don't forget DOFP Is going to be darker film than other 2014 comic books Inless Gwen Stacy dies In Amazing Spider-Man 2.

Doing 250 Million DOmesticly and 250 million overseas would make DOFP the top X-Men film
ever.

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Old 04-09-2013, 05:21 PM   #148
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Default Re: 'Days Of Future Past' BOX-OFFICE worldwide prediction

Quote:
Originally Posted by Angamb View Post
Cool post and format, SoNicRaDiATioN.

These are mines:

2013

IM3: 800m -1B
MoS: 600m - 750m
The Wolverine: 350m - 500m
Thor: TDW: 500m - 650m

2014

Cap2: 450m -550m
Amazing Spiderman 2: 850m - 1B
X-Men: DoFP: 700m - 900m
GotG: 400m - 500m

Quote:
Originally Posted by kedrell View Post
Not too ridiculous. I'd say IM3, TASM2 and Wolverine are in the right range. You're probably high-balling MoS and DoFP a bit and low-balling Thor2 and Cap2. GotG is a real wild card being the only one not already part of an existing franchise(though it being part of the MCU means it's part of a mega-franchise).
I'm not sure what to make of MoS, other then reaction/anticipation across the board is overwhelmingly enthusiastic. Feels like the breakout star of the summer to me.

I think the potential for TASM2 is definitely higher then I predicted, but without footage I feel my range is pretty much a no-brainer for now. I may be low-balling all of the 2014 films, but again, without footage I won't overreach. Being a lover of Singer's X-films and of the X-Men in general, I'm very optimistic about it's potential. Certainly about it being the highest grossing film in the franchise to date.

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Originally Posted by def28 View Post
Yeah, I'm sure there will be one or two surprises but those are pretty solid predictions.
It just feels like GotG has the ingredients to be that lightning in a bottle franchise that takes everyone by surprise...

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Old 04-09-2013, 05:31 PM   #149
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Default Re: 'Days Of Future Past' BOX-OFFICE worldwide prediction

I'm still waiting for that first Marvel Studios film, post-Avengers to 'underperform'. I'm unsure what it will be, but there will be one eventually and it'll be interesting to see what.

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Old 04-09-2013, 05:35 PM   #150
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Default Re: 'Days Of Future Past' BOX-OFFICE worldwide prediction

domestic/foreign/ total

2013


IM3: 375M/525M/ 900M - IM2 didn't make much gains over IM1. IM3's foreign numbers will be quite a bit higher though.
MoS: 250M/450M/ 700M - I think this will do similarly to TASM1.
Thor2: 200M/350M/ 550M - There's gonna be some growth but nothing out of this world. The first one was already in 3D.
The Wolverine: 175M/225M/ 400M - This one's going to disappoint a bit because of the previous movie and also because it may seem unnecessary. I think it's going to open smaller than Origins but have slightly better legs.

2014

TASM2: 300M/600M/ 900M - It'll probably have good growth in the foreign market, but domestically TASM1 didn't really make the bang it should have made.
DoFP: 300M/400M/ 700M - I think this one is pretty much just going to double the FC gross. It'll increase on X3 just from ticket prices and 3D alone and the foreign grosses for X-Men movies have been trending upwards.
Cap2: 200M/250M/ 450M - This franchise should be happy that it's doing as well as it is. There's just not much room for growth.
GotG: 175M/325M/ 500M - The dark horse of the group. Domestically it'll be fine, but this is the kind of movie that will do great overseas.


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