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View Poll Results: How do you think Captain America: The Winter Soldier will do?
$1.5 billion 3 1.63%
$1 billion 8 4.35%
$900 million 11 5.98%
$800 million 20 10.87%
$700 million 45 24.46%
$600 million 53 28.80%
$500 million 38 20.65%
$400 million 4 2.17%
$300 million 2 1.09%
$200 million 0 0%
Voters: 184. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 03-16-2014, 02:44 PM   #301
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by Ms. Marvel View Post
Unless it does an Avatar.
lol Yes lets all predict that. Make it happen.

Seriously I realize not everyone is a box office nerd like myself. 90mil opening weekend to a 350mil total without any hollidays in this day and age is a virtual impossibility, even if everyone loves your film. This is a sequel to a film that garnered a 2.7 multiplier, the best you can hope for is a tiny uptick to 2.75-2.8 at the very best. You should really be expecting 2.4-2.6. There is competition in April, the film will be frontloaded and Spider-Man is going to kill it in May.

What we really should be hoping for is a big opening weekend because the legs just aren't going to be there to the degree that some are hoping for. I'd like for it to hit 250mil so I'm hoping for over 100mil opening weekend.

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Old 03-16-2014, 06:36 PM   #302
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

What does a 2.75-2.8 multiplier translate to in dollars ?
2.4?
2.6?

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Old 03-16-2014, 06:40 PM   #303
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by I SEE SPIDEY View Post
lol Yes lets all predict that. Make it happen.

Seriously I realize not everyone is a box office nerd like myself. 90mil opening weekend to a 350mil total without any hollidays in this day and age is a virtual impossibility, even if everyone loves your film. This is a sequel to a film that garnered a 2.7 multiplier, the best you can hope for is a tiny uptick to 2.75-2.8 at the very best. You should really be expecting 2.4-2.6. There is competition in April, the film will be frontloaded and Spider-Man is going to kill it in May.

What we really should be hoping for is a big opening weekend because the legs just aren't going to be there to the degree that some are hoping for. I'd like for it to hit 250mil so I'm hoping for over 100mil opening weekend.
I agree about Avatar, that film had Cameron .
Sounds like the Russo Bros. did a good job ,but, very few filmmakers are in Camerons league .

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Old 03-16-2014, 07:33 PM   #304
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by Raiden View Post
I think with the strong reviews and marketing, TWS will do 90-95 mil OW. And if the WOM is great, I think it can make 350 mil domestically and 800-850 mil WW. Maybe I'm a bit optimistic, but I believe that this movie is going to become a huge hit.
190+ dom/500+ ww = mild hit

210+ dom/550+ ww = solid hit

230+ dom/600+ ww = surprise hit

250+ dom/650+ ww = breakout hit

300+ dom/700+ ww = mind-blowingly huge hit

Lets not forget how hard it is to make 250 m. No reason to set the bar so high we're disappointed with good results.

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Old 03-16-2014, 07:49 PM   #305
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by MessiahDecoy123 View Post
190+ dom/500+ ww = mild hit

210+ dom/550+ ww = solid hit

230+ dom/600+ ww = surprise hit

250+ dom/650+ ww = breakout hit

300+ dom/700+ ww = mind-blowingly huge hit

Lets not forget how hard it is to make 250 m. No reason to set the bar so high we're disappointed with good results.
I guess it's better to underestimate and be surprised by the result. In that case I'll revise my prediction to be:

225 mil domestic/570 WW

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Old 03-16-2014, 08:00 PM   #306
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by MessiahDecoy123 View Post
190+ dom/500+ ww = mild hit

210+ dom/550+ ww = solid hit

230+ dom/600+ ww = surprise hit

250+ dom/650+ ww = breakout hit

300+ dom/700+ ww = mind-blowingly huge hit

Lets not forget how hard it is to make 250 m. No reason to set the bar so high we're disappointed with good results.
So was MOS a breakout hit or does its budget factor in?

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Old 03-16-2014, 09:16 PM   #307
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So was MOS a breakout hit or does its budget factor in?
Budget but also expectations.

For example, Avatar 2 could make 1.2 billion and it would be a disappointment because most people expected it to cruise past 2 billion.

Based on Captain America 1, 500+ m would be an impressive amount for Cap 2.

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Old 03-16-2014, 09:24 PM   #308
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Good to know.

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Old 03-16-2014, 11:45 PM   #309
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I think with the strong reviews and marketing, TWS will do 90-95 mil OW. And if the WOM is great, I think it can make 350 mil domestically and 800-850 mil WW. Maybe I'm a bit optimistic, but I believe that this movie is going to become a huge hit.

Ok honestly your high as a kite.

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Old 03-16-2014, 11:46 PM   #310
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In terms of competition ,
There is Transcendence on the 18th, a scifi film starring Johnny Depp.
That would probably be the biggest threat in April for TWS .
Now Depps film might not beat it, But I keep hearing that there is no competition in April and that just isn't accurate .
Also Rio 2. That will win second weekend.

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Old 03-16-2014, 11:49 PM   #311
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So was MOS a breakout hit or does its budget factor in?

LOL Mos wasnt a breakout hit because umm well I dont know People are funny it finished in third place in live action films as far as box office for 2013 domestic and people sayyyyyy ehhhh. ?????

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Old 03-17-2014, 12:06 AM   #312
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

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LOL Mos wasnt a breakout hit because umm well I dont know People are funny it finished in third place in live action films as far as box office for 2013 domestic and people sayyyyyy ehhhh. ?????
It's do with expectation. Some people expected it to make around $800 million with $300 million domestic so they would be disappointed if it doesn't. It's still a hit but not everyone will see it that way due to different expectations.

The same will go for Cap 2.

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Old 03-17-2014, 12:12 AM   #313
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It's do with expectation. Some people expected it to make around $800 million with $300 million domestic so they would be disappointed if it doesn't. It's still a hit but not everyone will see it that way due to different expectations.

The same will go for Cap 2.
It has nothing to do with expectations. It has to do with built in bias. Thor 2 made 206 million domestic. I think it did great. But I dont have a bias. But people who thought it would do 250 or 300 were amazed that it didnt. I dont know why. They had this bias toward thor thinking it was going to light things up and blow past MOS and bla bla. They didnt look at how the numbers were lining up. Then they got mad at me when I told them they need to tone back. So I was the bad guy even though they had the bias.

Radien is a perfect example. 350 million domestic? Come on.

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Old 03-17-2014, 12:44 AM   #314
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by insideguy View Post
It has nothing to do with expectations. It has to do with built in bias. Thor 2 made 206 million domestic. I think it did great. But I dont have a bias. But people who thought it would do 250 or 300 were amazed that it didnt. I dont know why. They had this bias toward thor thinking it was going to light things up and blow past MOS and bla bla. They didnt look at how the numbers were lining up. Then they got mad at me when I told them they need to tone back. So I was the bad guy even though they had the bias.

Radien is a perfect example. 350 million domestic? Come on.




But whatever, I changed my estimate anyway. I just want TWS to become a huge hit, and I think it will.

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Old 03-17-2014, 02:13 AM   #315
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by Raiden View Post
I think with the strong reviews and marketing, TWS will do 90-95 mil OW. And if the WOM is great, I think it can make 350 mil domestically and 800-850 mil WW. Maybe I'm a bit optimistic, but I believe that this movie is going to become a huge hit.
I honestly believe that Captain America is going for $120-130m OW. And after that, it's getting a 2.4, 2.5 multiplier, approaching/breaking 300m domestically.

I believe both Captain America: The Winter Soldier and The Amazing Spider-Man 2 will be HUGE hits, and that it's completely possible for both films help each other instead of hurting each other. The buzz for both films have been great so far, the marketing blitz for both films have been two of the best since The Avengers, and I do believe Captain America: The Winter Soldier will breakout as the first blockbuster of the year.

Captain America: The Winter Soldier:

$120m-$130m OW
$290m-$310m DOM
$450m-$500m OS
$740m-$810m WW

The Amazing Spider-Man 2:

$140m-$155m OW
$350m-$385m DOM
$650m-$700m OS
$1B-1.085B WW

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Old 03-17-2014, 01:40 PM   #316
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

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LOL Mos wasnt a breakout hit because umm well I dont know People are funny it finished in third place in live action films as far as box office for 2013 domestic and people sayyyyyy ehhhh. ?????
And you know, 9th if you factor in insignificant things such as international BO numbers and animated films (despite the fact that it was the motion picture granted with the highest production budget in 2013 mind you).

But hey, I think you can see it that way, MoS ranks second all time, just behind the Avengers, in films featuring a red caped hero. If that doesn't sound like a breakout hit, I don't know what does.

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Old 03-17-2014, 03:20 PM   #317
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by Avenging Spidey View Post
I honestly believe that Captain America is going for $120-130m OW. And after that, it's getting a 2.4, 2.5 multiplier, approaching/breaking 300m domestically.

I believe both Captain America: The Winter Soldier and The Amazing Spider-Man 2 will be HUGE hits, and that it's completely possible for both films help each other instead of hurting each other. The buzz for both films have been great so far, the marketing blitz for both films have been two of the best since The Avengers, and I do believe Captain America: The Winter Soldier will breakout as the first blockbuster of the year.

Captain America: The Winter Soldier:

$120m-$130m OW
$290m-$310m DOM
$450m-$500m OS
$740m-$810m WW

The Amazing Spider-Man 2:

$140m-$155m OW
$350m-$385m DOM
$650m-$700m OS
$1B-1.085B WW
I think Godzilla is going to do really well as well, the buzz on that seems legit.

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Old 03-17-2014, 03:38 PM   #318
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

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I think Godzilla is going to do really well as well, the buzz on that seems legit.
Yeah, my experience in personal convos with non-comic fans:
-a lot of people excited for [a real] Godzilla movie.
-Cap 2 is picking up steam in people's minds, it looks amazing, an impossible amount of good buzz that even "normies" are starting to hear about.

-ASM2, on the other hand, I haven't heard many express interest in, not a lot of people even really knew it was coming out, most comments I hear are "the one with the electric guy, right?" I'm sure it'll still do extremely well, just because it's spidey, and it looks epic, but it's definitely not in the top 5 or so movies I hear people say they're excited for

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Old 03-17-2014, 05:31 PM   #319
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

$250-$300m US

Overseas is a lot harder.. anywhere from $350-$450m.

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Old 03-17-2014, 06:02 PM   #320
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

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LOL Mos wasnt a breakout hit because umm well I dont know People are funny it finished in third place in live action films as far as box office for 2013 domestic and people sayyyyyy ehhhh. ?????
People were also weighing the production/marketing costs. It was budgeted like a freaking behemoth BO performer.

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Old 03-17-2014, 06:19 PM   #321
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

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People were also weighing the production/marketing costs. It was budgeted like a freaking behemoth BO performer.
I think the budget for MOS was close to Avengers, right?

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Old 03-17-2014, 08:53 PM   #322
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

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Yeah, my experience in personal convos with non-comic fans:
-a lot of people excited for [a real] Godzilla movie.
-Cap 2 is picking up steam in people's minds, it looks amazing, an impossible amount of good buzz that even "normies" are starting to hear about.

-ASM2, on the other hand, I haven't heard many express interest in, not a lot of people even really knew it was coming out, most comments I hear are "the one with the electric guy, right?" I'm sure it'll still do extremely well, just because it's spidey, and it looks epic, but it's definitely not in the top 5 or so movies I hear people say they're excited for
I don't think people understand how huge both Cap and Spidey are getting this year. TASM did $752m between The Avengers and The Dark Knight Rises, two of the most hyper movies ever. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 from the trailers alone look like the best Spider-Man film yet, while Winter Soldier looks like one of the best movies yet. I'm not feeling the buzz for Godzilla, not really that different than Pacific Rim last year, but the buzz for both Cap and Spidey from the advance screenings has been fantastic. This is Steve's and Peter's year, I tell you.

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Old 03-17-2014, 09:14 PM   #323
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

Advanced screenings for ASM2 have been positive eh? Got any links to tweets or anything?

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Old 03-17-2014, 09:53 PM   #324
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

Wait, ASM2 isn't out yet? With the amount of clips they've released, I thought they were advertising the Blu-ray release already.

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Old 03-17-2014, 10:03 PM   #325
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And you know, 9th if you factor in insignificant things such as international BO numbers and animated films (despite the fact that it was the motion picture granted with the highest production budget in 2013 mind you).

But hey, I think you can see it that way, MoS ranks second all time, just behind the Avengers, in films featuring a red caped hero. If that doesn't sound like a breakout hit, I don't know what does.

LOL. You guys are hilarious. MOS was a hit. There is no doubt it was. But there is also no convincing those who thought in their own minds that it was gonna make a billion dollars or something. I can just imagine back in the day when Batman Begins came out and those proclaiming that a failure. Tell me dude Cap made 370 million worldwide on a 140 million production budget. MOS made 668 million on a 225 million budget. So does that make Cap a failure?


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