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View Poll Results: How do you think Man of Steel will do?
1.5 billion 11 5.85%
1 billion 27 14.36%
900 million 13 6.91%
800 million 35 18.62%
700 million 41 21.81%
600 million 29 15.43%
500 million 18 9.57%
400 million 8 4.26%
300 million 2 1.06%
200 million 4 2.13%
Voters: 188. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 04-30-2013, 07:59 AM   #251
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Default Re: Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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Originally Posted by Frontier View Post
I think we have to keep in mind that whatever predictions where made for TDKR in terms of box office certainly would have been tempered as a result of the Aurora shooting. So it's not really a fair marker, imho, to compare to. Anyone who got a bad prediction on such can easily explain that.

I just hope MoS out-performs Marvel's flicks.
TDKR was tracking everywhere between $180-$200+ million prior to the Aurora shooting (not to dig up the past) but that's a fact. Now I did go see TDKR a third time on that Saturday and the theater only had about a dozen people...

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Old 04-30-2013, 08:04 AM   #252
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Default Re: Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

With that being said, I expect MoS to do better than these films:

Batman Begins - Opening Weekend: $48,745,440
Incredible Hulk - Opening Weekend: $55,414,050
Amazing Spiderman - Opening Weekend: $62,004,688

I really hope it can pull Iron Man like figures and I think it will just because of the rise of ticket prices, 3D, and well, DC flagship was Batman and now they're going all in on Superman it looks like and there is a lot of pressure on this film to do well. Obviously it will make or break a future JL film.

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Old 04-30-2013, 08:18 AM   #253
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Default Re: Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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Iron Man 3 will not come close to TDK/TDKR OW. It will haul in $135 million.
Are you going to be here next Monday?

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Old 04-30-2013, 11:12 AM   #254
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Default Re: Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

batman begins/The amazing spiderman/superman returns all opened on a Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday, so OW numbers would have been higher. MOS will open over 90 million. It could surprise us all and do huge numbers. If it has 90+ RT score then don't be surprised if it does 120ish OW numbers/350 D/400 F.


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Old 04-30-2013, 11:15 AM   #255
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Default Re: Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

i think 95/105 ow. around 315/325 dom. around 650 mill total ww.

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Old 04-30-2013, 11:24 AM   #256
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Default Re: Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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Iron Man 3 will not come close to TDK/TDKR OW. It will haul in $135 million.
You think that it is going to open with only a couple of mil more than the last film despite 3D ticket prices and Iron Man coming off of The Avengers? Yeah it's not doing under 150mil this weekend. More like 170-175mil.

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Old 04-30-2013, 12:32 PM   #257
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Default Re: Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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Iron Man 3 will not come close to TDK/TDKR OW. It will haul in $135 million.
Lol. Maybe in it's first two days.

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Old 04-30-2013, 01:28 PM   #258
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Default Re: Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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Total...no way on Earth. Opening weekend? I think it will top both of them.
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Iron Man 3 will not come close to TDK/TDKR OW. It will haul in $135 million.
I have a strong feeling you're both wrong.

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Old 04-30-2013, 02:12 PM   #259
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Default Re: Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

I ruled out IM3 doing as well as Rises yesterday but I've changed my mind. If IM3 opens with 170ish and it really is better than the last film it would only need decent legs to reach Rises. After those international numbers and the lack of a big break out this year so far, I just can't rule out those kinds of numbers.

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Old 04-30-2013, 02:15 PM   #260
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Default Re: Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

I think IM3 could beat out TDKR numbers. It definitely has a chance.

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Old 04-30-2013, 02:21 PM   #261
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Default Re: Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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I think IM3 could beat out TDKR numbers. It definitely has a chance.
If it plays like a semi sequel to The Avengers it could top 500mil. For all we know it could open with 185-190mil. It's just so hard to know.

I am going to be keeping an eye out for Deadline Hollywood's early friday numbers.

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Old 04-30-2013, 02:53 PM   #262
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Default Re: Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

The Weekend Warrior's 2013 Summer Box Office
http://www.comingsoon.net/news/inter....php?id=103553

Quote:
With so many big movies in May you'd think there isn't much left for the rest of summer, but there are two more comic book superhero movies picking up where Iron Man 3 leaves off with the Zack Snyder Superman movie Man of Steel (Warner Bros. – June 14) expected to be an enormous blockbuster as it introduces British actor Henry Cavill as Clark Kent aka Superman.

Warner Bros. really needs to get this franchise right this time after Bryan Singer's less-than-well-received Superman Returns, which still cracked $200 million but even moreso after the dud Green Lantern. Snyder may have one of the most Oscar-nominated casts in the history of superhero movies starting with Amy Adams as Lois Lane, Michael Shannon as General Zod, Kevin Costner and Diane Lane as Jonathan and Martha Kent and Russell Crowe as Superman's birth father Jor-El. That's a lot of quality actors, a much higher caliber than any movies outside of Christopher Nolan's "Dark Knight” series, and there's going to be a lot of excitement from Superman fans from young to old. We would be shocked if this one doesn't open in the $90 million range and if it doesn't keep bringing in business over the rest of the month of June and July on its way to $300 million or even more, although it has quite a bit of competition in the weeks that follow.
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The Weekend Warrior's Summer Top 15

I've placed an asterisk next to two or three which I feel could break out and do even bigger business depending on word-of-mouth, quality.

1. Iron Man 3 (Marvel Studios/Disney – May 2)

$155 million opening - $405 million total

2. Monsters University (Disney•Pixar - June 21)

$85 million opening - $315 million

3. Man of Steel (Warner Bros. – June 14)

$88 million opening - $296 million total

4. Despicable Me 2 (Universal – July 3)

Weds. & Thurs. $33 million; weekend: $54 million - $275 million total

5. Star Trek Into Darkness (Paramount – May 15)

$103 million opening - $268 million total

6. Fast & Furious 6 (Universal – May 24)

$105 million (4-day) opening - $220 million total

7. The Wolverine (20th Century Fox – July 26)

$78 million opening - $170 million total

8. The Hangover Part III (Warner Bros. - May 24)

$74 million (4-day) weekend - $168 million total

9. White House Down (Sony - June 28)

$48 million weekend - $153 million total*

9. The Smurfs 2 (Sony – July 31)

Weds. & Thurs $20 million; $31 million weekend; $133 million total

10. Grown Ups 2 (Sony – July 12)

$42 million opening - $128 million total

11. Turbo (DreamWorks Animation/Fox – July 17)

$38 million (5-day) opening - $125 million

12. Pacific Rim (Legendary/WB – July 12)

$45 million opening - $120 million total*

13. The Heat (20th Century Fox – June 28)

$26 million opening - $115 million total*

14. The Lone Ranger (Disney – July 3)

Weds. & Thurs $26 million; weekend $28 million - $115 million total

15. Elysium (Sony - August 9)

$35 million opening - $110 million total*

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Old 04-30-2013, 03:01 PM   #263
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Default Re: Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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Originally Posted by Kane52630 View Post
The Weekend Warrior's 2013 Summer Box Office
http://www.comingsoon.net/news/inter....php?id=103553
As I posted in the other thread ... they should have made the prediction 300 even ... 296 is such a weird # and one that WB will try to push to 300 if it's at that # anyway.

The multiplier for Star Trek would be pretty average given that ST09 made a similar amount on a 75 million weekend.

... The Wolverine # seems pretty optimistic. We'll see if Wolverine still can bring in the audience after the Origins movie. I'd be more confident in 65/160 total for now.

Iron Man 3 # look pretty close for total, but opening weekend might be a little low.

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Old 04-30-2013, 04:42 PM   #264
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Default Re: Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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OTOH, bear in mind that dollars spent on marketing are not the equivalent of dollars spent on production. Especially for a big conglomerate like WB, most of the marketing budget is actually reciprocal licensing ( ie "barter ) with other parties. WB "pays" 7-11 to produce Man of Steel slushies in the coin of "license to use our IP" rather than dollars. 7-11 in turn "pays" WB for this in the coin of "contract to use and distribute slushies using MoS promotional imagery." Both of these things have actual value, converted into dollars, but its not really the same as WB spending dollars on things like salaries and filming. Thus why marketing costs really should be separated from production costs, even though they are non-zero.
I said nothing about the marketing budget. Not sure what your point is.

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Old 04-30-2013, 05:37 PM   #265
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Default Re: Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

man, there's gonna be alot of crow eaten by the end of the summer.
Not just from fans but alot of big name's are putting out some bold numbers too.

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Old 04-30-2013, 05:54 PM   #266
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Default Re: Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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I have a strong feeling you're both wrong.
I have seen the tracking. 58% definite interest is enormous. TDKR was at 72 the week before release. No shooting, TDKR does about 195ish ball parked. With 3D, that is in the 220-230ms.

Iron Man 3 has 3D. 170 million is verrry well within range. MTC - the biggest tracker in Hwood - is saying 170 million +. Pre sales and overseas success are saying the same.

There is NO WAY ON THIS GREEN EARTH that IRON MAN 3 opens under 155 million. Take that to the bank. 58% is an enormous number. For an all time comparisons sake (these are the only ones I know):

-TDKR - 72%
-Avengers - 66%
-Transformers 2
-Spider-man: 64%
-The Mummy Returns 54%
-Pearl Harbor - 49%
-sorry for the huge gap in time, dk any in between
-Star Wars Episode 1: 78%

I do know that none of the films missed topped 66%. TDKR was 6% ahead of any film to come out since 1999 when it opened last summer. Even with the shooting, had it included 3D, TDKR does 190m+ (3d adds ~18-20%). Just staggering.

The combo of 1) the shooting, & 2) no 3D cost warners brothers 100s of millions last summer.

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Old 04-30-2013, 09:48 PM   #267
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Default Re: Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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I have seen the tracking. 58% definite interest is enormous. TDKR was at 72 the week before release. No shooting, TDKR does about 195ish ball parked. With 3D, that is in the 220-230ms.

Iron Man 3 has 3D. 170 million is verrry well within range. MTC - the biggest tracker in Hwood - is saying 170 million +. Pre sales and overseas success are saying the same.

There is NO WAY ON THIS GREEN EARTH that IRON MAN 3 opens under 155 million. Take that to the bank. 58% is an enormous number. For an all time comparisons sake (these are the only ones I know):

-TDKR - 72%
-Avengers - 66%
-Transformers 2
-Spider-man: 64%
-The Mummy Returns 54%
-Pearl Harbor - 49%
-sorry for the huge gap in time, dk any in between
-Star Wars Episode 1: 78%

I do know that none of the films missed topped 66%. TDKR was 6% ahead of any film to come out since 1999 when it opened last summer. Even with the shooting, had it included 3D, TDKR does 190m+ (3d adds ~18-20%). Just staggering.

The combo of 1) the shooting, & 2) no 3D cost warners brothers 100s of millions last summer.
I kept trying to tell people last summer, for all intents and purposes, TDKR was on its way to being the biggest movie of all-time, bigger than Avatar and Titanic... and everyone shut me down. In all actuality, it really was.

I mean, seriously, it was tracking almost as big as Episode I, had far more anticipation than Avatar and Titanic prior to its release.

No shooting + 3D = Biggest Movie of All-Time, almost guaranteed. The tracking never lies.

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Old 04-30-2013, 10:19 PM   #268
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Default Re: Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

They were right to shut you down. Are you seriously saying the shooting took around $200+ million plus off the total? Well easy to say it was more anticipated than Avatar or Titanic because a lot of movies are. Those movies had 'legs' that are unheard of, not huge opening weekends.

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Old 04-30-2013, 10:23 PM   #269
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Default Re: Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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I kept trying to tell people last summer, for all intents and purposes, TDKR was on its way to being the biggest movie of all-time, bigger than Avatar and Titanic... and everyone shut me down. In all actuality, it really was.

I mean, seriously, it was tracking almost as big as Episode I, had far more anticipation than Avatar and Titanic prior to its release.

No shooting + 3D = Biggest Movie of All-Time, almost guaranteed. The tracking never lies.
LOL. Thank you for the joke.

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Old 04-30-2013, 10:42 PM   #270
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Default Re: Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

When you want to get into the high 300's-400m domestic range you need good legs and WOM regardless of how big a debut you get.

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Old 04-30-2013, 10:45 PM   #271
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Default Re: Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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LOL. Thank you for the joke.
I dont know about "biggest of all time", but if you add 3d and take away the shooting?

No shooting, it does in the 200/540 ballpark.

With 3D included, that is about 235/650 ball park.

Those are well thought out numbers. TDKR was tracking 6% higher than any film since EPISODE ONE. It was the sequel to the movie of the decade, what did you expect?

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Old 04-30-2013, 10:46 PM   #272
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Default Re: Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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I kept trying to tell people last summer, for all intents and purposes, TDKR was on its way to being the biggest movie of all-time, bigger than Avatar and Titanic... and everyone shut me down. In all actuality, it really was.

I mean, seriously, it was tracking almost as big as Episode I, had far more anticipation than Avatar and Titanic prior to its release.

No shooting + 3D = Biggest Movie of All-Time, almost guaranteed. The tracking never lies.
I'd do it, but I've been drinking and watching the stanley cup playoffs, but any fellow nerds out there want to do the actual math on this. I'd like to see it.

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Old 04-30-2013, 10:50 PM   #273
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I'm hoping for over $300m domestic from MOS.

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Old 05-01-2013, 04:43 AM   #274
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I'm hoping for over $300m domestic from MOS.
you and me both .. and a couple of others i'll wager

what do u guys think will happen to the box office where the crits are divided but it has good word of mouth ?

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Old 05-01-2013, 06:12 AM   #275
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If it has good WOM critics won't matter.

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