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Old 10-06-2013, 04:20 AM   #601
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Default Re: DOFP vs other 2014 ComicsMovies Thread [Buzz, BoxOffice and more]

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Originally Posted by psylockolussus View Post
Yeah because Thor/Bridesmaids were released in August and were released in the same weekend. Oh wait NO, they were released in May and when Bridesmaids was released in America, Thor was already in its 3rd weekend.
Ok, what about Ted and Magic Mike? Opened on the same day, different demos. Both opened Strong.
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GOTG is not opening the summer, its gonna be the 3rd comic-book adaptation of the summer and blockbuster-fatigue usually happen in July and August. And drama/comedies usually perform well in August/July. Thats the case for The Butler/We're The Millers this year.

And I've said it before, I think GOTG might beat 50 Shades of Grey in the opening weekend (just like how Elysium beat We're the Millers in the opening weekend) but 50 Shades of Grey will have better legs at the box-office than GOTG.
Am I talking about 50 Shades not being a success? No. I'm talking about it taking GOTG's audience. Which will not happen.
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And just because its coming from Marvel and Disney. It doesn't mean its already a guaranteed success, Prince of Persia, The Lone Ranger and John Carter were released by Disney. Incredible Hulk came from Marvel Studios and I'm pretty sure people don't watch films just because of the Marvel logo because if thats the case, movies like Elektra, Blade, Punisher, Ghost Rider, Daredevil, Hulk should have earned more money.
The advertising/success of Disney and Marvel has yet to fail. Nough said. We can discuss it's failure when it happens.


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Old 10-06-2013, 04:29 AM   #602
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Default Re: DOFP vs other 2014 ComicsMovies Thread [Buzz, BoxOffice and more]

I probably posted my take some weeks ago, but I'll give it another try.

First of all, I think both AS2 and Dofp have the potential to reach 1 billion, yeah, Ive said it, but... I'll use lower numbers, just to keep it 'more real' for some fans, lol


- Captain America 2: 550-690 m.

- Amazing Spiderman 2: 800-1.1 billion

- X-Men: DOFP: 750-1 billion

- Guardians otG: 380-500 m.


*notes: Cap 2 could do a bit more, but I think it will depend on how epic the movie would look in trailers and all, and how great word of mouth is, so since Im not sure how the Wom will be, I didnt put 700m. With Guardians, similar case. It could do more, but it will depend on the impact in the young/young adult audience. So I put the limit around 500m.

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Old 10-06-2013, 04:31 AM   #603
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Default Re: DOFP vs other 2014 ComicsMovies Thread [Buzz, BoxOffice and more]

1. So are you saying we should compare GOTG/50 Shades of Grey into 2 successful movies that opened in the same weekend and still got good B.O. numbers? First of all, Ted/Magic Mike cost nothing like GOTG. Magic Mike's budget was 7 million and Ted's budget was 50 million.

2. You were saying that 50 Shades of Grey is not a competition to GOTG.

3. The advertising of Disney has failed before - Prince of Persia, The Lone Ranger and John Carter. The advertising of Marvel has failed before - Incredible Hulk.

'Nuff said!

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Old 10-06-2013, 04:43 AM   #604
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Default Re: DOFP vs other 2014 ComicsMovies Thread [Buzz, BoxOffice and more]

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1. So are you saying we should compare GOTG/50 Shades of Grey into 2 successful movies that opened in the same weekend and still got good B.O. numbers? First of all, Ted/Magic Mike cost nothing like GOTG. Magic Mike's budget was 7 million and Ted's budget was 50 million.
I'm saying both can hit success.
Quote:
2. You were saying that 50 Shades of Grey is not a competition to GOTG.
It's not. They are two completely different films, with different audeinces. Go back and read the previous page, I think both will be big. I could care less if one makes more then the other. If both open strong who gives a ****? You just think GOTG will fail and want to keep reiterating your opinion.
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3. The advertising of Disney has failed before - Prince of Persia, The Lone Ranger and John Carter. The advertising of Marvel has failed before - Incredible Hulk.

'Nuff said!
Well done, you completely proved my point by avoiding that Disney+Marvel has had zero failures.


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Old 10-06-2013, 04:45 AM   #605
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Default Re: DOFP vs other 2014 ComicsMovies Thread [Buzz, BoxOffice and more]

I just think you are over-confident with the film. I feel like you think its already a guaranteed success justbecause its coming from Marvel+disney partnership. But you're completely ignoring these factors

-GOTG is not well known
-The actors that could draw people are just doing voice-overs.
-Its August release date, and August is usually the weakest month of summer
-Blockbuster fatigue happens around July/August
-50 Shades of Grey as competition

And GOTG would probably get more money, if it doesn't have 50 Shades of grey opening in the same weekend. There's more possibility that the female crowd would check out GOTG.

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Old 10-06-2013, 04:52 AM   #606
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Default Re: DOFP vs other 2014 ComicsMovies Thread [Buzz, BoxOffice and more]

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I just think you are over-confident with the film. I feel like you think its already a guaranteed success justbecause its coming from Marvel+disney partnership. But you're completely ignoring these factors
No. Read the previous page again. Regardless of my opinion on GOTG being a success, My point of view is that if GOTG fails it will be the film's fault. Not 50 Shades. They have nothing to do with eachother's success.

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Old 10-06-2013, 04:55 AM   #607
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Default Re: DOFP vs other 2014 ComicsMovies Thread [Buzz, BoxOffice and more]

50 Shades of Grey won't be the sole reason why GOTG would not earn more than 150 to 200 million in the U.S. but competing with 50 Shades of Grey in the opening weekend will still be a factor.

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Old 10-06-2013, 04:57 AM   #608
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Default Re: DOFP vs other 2014 ComicsMovies Thread [Buzz, BoxOffice and more]

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50 Shades of Grey won't be the sole reason why GOTG would not earn more than 150 to 200 million in the U.S. but competing with 50 Shades of Grey in the opening weekend will still be a factor.
No it won't. You can read the previous page for my opinions on that.

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Old 10-06-2013, 04:58 AM   #609
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Default Re: DOFP vs other 2014 ComicsMovies Thread [Buzz, BoxOffice and more]

people gives opening weekend too much credit.

World War Z opened in USA with 66m, and ended with 202m.

And a better example yet: Avatar opened with 77m, and we all know how that ended.

The general audience CAN watch more than one movie, guys! Lol

It doesnt matter what movie is #1 on first week or second week, what matters is the full run.

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Old 10-06-2013, 05:00 AM   #610
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Default Re: DOFP vs other 2014 ComicsMovies Thread [Buzz, BoxOffice and more]

Yes it would.

You're crossing out the target audience of 50 Shades of Grey, who are you to say that they wouldn't watch action/sci-fi films. Who knows if half of them already saw The Avengers.

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Old 10-06-2013, 05:06 AM   #611
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Default Re: DOFP vs other 2014 ComicsMovies Thread [Buzz, BoxOffice and more]

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Yes it would.

You're crossing out the target audience of 50 Shades of Grey, who are you to say that they wouldn't watch action/sci-fi films. Who knows if half of them already saw The Avengers.
I'd say I'm someone who is using some logic that a family film attached to the largest comic property in the film industry has a much larger demographic then an R rated sex Drama. Read the previous page, all my thoughts on the subject are there.

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Old 10-06-2013, 05:09 AM   #612
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Default Re: DOFP vs other 2014 ComicsMovies Thread [Buzz, BoxOffice and more]

And as if people are just gonna watch a film because they have a connection with the Avengers. GOTG would definitely benefit a lot from The Avengers if only the GOTG characters already appeared in The Avengers movie. But they haven't.

And like I said before, August is usually the weakest month of summer and its also not the best month to release family blockbuster movies.

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Old 10-06-2013, 05:14 AM   #613
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Edit: Done here


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Old 10-06-2013, 05:18 AM   #614
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Default Re: DOFP vs other 2014 ComicsMovies Thread [Buzz, BoxOffice and more]

I didn't say it would steal GOTG's audience (like as if it already built a loyal audience). You are not getting the point that its better for GOTG if its the only new film (w/ a wide release) in the first weekend of August.

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Old 10-06-2013, 05:25 AM   #615
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Default Re: DOFP vs other 2014 ComicsMovies Thread [Buzz, BoxOffice and more]

of course its better the be the only new movie on that weekend, but as I said psylock, what really really matters is the long run.

read my previous comment regarding WW Z and Avatar.

First week is not that important. But we could keep arguing the whole day posting the same comments over and over if you want, lol.

Theatres have many movies at the same time all weeks of the year, so the marketing and word of mouth are what will make a huge hit or not, whatever the new movies are on same week, or next ones.

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Old 10-06-2013, 05:29 AM   #616
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Default Re: DOFP vs other 2014 ComicsMovies Thread [Buzz, BoxOffice and more]

Yeah as if GOTG is gonna have strong legs in August/September/October.

WW opened in June and people weren't tired of action/blockbuster films yet. Avatar was released in the holiday season.

And of course, first week is important to CBM movies, lets see what will happen if DOFp opens with 50 to 70 million, do you think it still can get more than 300 million, like you are hoping for.

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Old 10-06-2013, 06:07 AM   #617
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Default Re: DOFP vs other 2014 ComicsMovies Thread [Buzz, BoxOffice and more]

you go to the extremes many times.

I wasnt talking about Guardians movie per se, just not in general. And I wasnt deffending the movie either. Just posting a general point.

And yeah, with some movies opening weekend is important, but not with all, as WWZ and Avatar proved.

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Old 10-06-2013, 06:23 AM   #618
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Default Re: DOFP vs other 2014 ComicsMovies Thread [Buzz, BoxOffice and more]

Sorry I think def (numbers) is right.

50 Shades and Guardians target different audiences, one won't really affect the other.

However it may still steal some thunder with it's hype.

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Old 10-06-2013, 06:46 AM   #619
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Default Re: DOFP vs other 2014 ComicsMovies Thread [Buzz, BoxOffice and more]

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Flash news. We're the Millers was R-rated too.
It's rating wasn't my point, the genre was. And the combination of the two (R rated comedy) has been highly successful for the past several years, which made it more likely to best a niche sci fi film (Elysium) and the 6th film in a struggling franchise (The Wolverine). In contrast, how many successful R Rated hardcore female erotica films like 50 Shades of Grey are out there, much less one that opens alongside a more mainstream friendly film like GotG?

Quote:

Yeah because Thor/Bridesmaids were released in August and were released in the same weekend. Oh wait NO, they were released in May and when Bridesmaids was released in America, Thor was already in its 3rd weekend.
The release dates are immaterial because the point of my analogy was two films with contrasting genres and target demographics going head to head. And the fact that Bridesmaids came out later makes the comparison all the more pertinent, because if it couldn't even win the weekend against Thor when the latter was on it's second weekend (Thor came out on the 6th, Bridesmaids on the 13th), then what makes you think it could've won when the two debuted on the same weekend?

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GOTG is not opening the summer, its gonna be the 3rd comic-book adaptation of the summer and blockbuster-fatigue usually happen in July and August. And drama/comedies usually perform well in August/July. Thats the case for The Butler/We're The Millers this year.
There are several examples of sci fi/action films opening in August and thriving. GotG also has elements of comedy so it can also leech off that genre's success in that month. And 50 Shades of Grey is neither drama or comedy anyway.

Quote:

And I've said it before, I think GOTG might beat 50 Shades of Grey in the opening weekend (just like how Elysium beat We're the Millers in the opening weekend) but 50 Shades of Grey will have better legs at the box-office than GOTG.
I really don't see it. 50 Shades of Grey's generally risque content and limited target demo doesn't tend to lend itself well to long legs, not unlike GotG's superhero/sci fi/action/comedy/adventure multi demograpic appeal.

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And just because its coming from Marvel and Disney. It doesn't mean its already a guaranteed success, Prince of Persia, The Lone Ranger and John Carter were released by Disney. Incredible Hulk came from Marvel Studios and I'm pretty sure people don't watch films just because of the Marvel logo because if thats the case, movies like Elektra, Blade, Punisher, Ghost Rider, Daredevil, Hulk should have earned more money.
Disney's just a distributor, so their past failures have no bearing on how GotG (which is produced by Marvel Studios) fares. You bring up The Incredible Hulk, and I raise you Thor and Captain America, which are generally less popular than the Hulk as characters and are tougher sells as premises. And the GA have pretty much shown the ability to draw the distinction between Marvel Studios' films and those films you have listed which were credited more to other studios as opposed to Marvel despite the presence of their logo.


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Old 10-06-2013, 07:12 AM   #620
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Default Re: DOFP vs other 2014 ComicsMovies Thread [Buzz, BoxOffice and more]

GotG may end up like Thor and Cap back In 2011.Sucessful yeah but failing to hit 200 million domesticly. GotG sucess will determine on it's quality and the GA reaction to it.

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Old 10-06-2013, 08:51 AM   #621
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Default Re: DOFP vs other 2014 ComicsMovies Thread [Buzz, BoxOffice and more]

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I think ASM 2 would do better BO than DOFP.SpiderMan is the most popular superhero and it's going to do a solid 750million regardless of how good/bad the movie is.
That would be Batman & Iron Man.

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IMO, Cap 2 earning 150 million at the opening Weekend in the U.S. is impossible. The film has less hype than X-Men/Spidey and its already the 3rd post-Avengers film.
Even if you could accurately measure "hype", it's quite irrelevant 7-8 months before release, and a lot can change in that time.

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I find it hard to believe any movie (Marvel) will outgross TASM2.
The Avengers & IM3 say "Hi!". I don't see TASM2 coming anywhere close to IM3, let alone TA.

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GOTG is not opening the summer, its gonna be the 3rd comic-book adaptation of the summer and blockbuster-fatigue usually happen in July and August. And drama/comedies usually perform well in August/July. Thats the case for The Butler/We're The Millers this year.
The Bourne Ultimatum - US $227m / WW $442m
Rise of the Planet of the Apes - US $ 176m / WW $481m
Signs - US $227m / WW $408m
Rush Hour 2 - US $226m / WW $347m
The Sixth Sense - US $293m /WW $672

Everyone of those is a first week of August release. But I've pointed this out to you before and you just ignored it, so I doubt you'll pay any attention this time either.

Quote:
And just because its coming from Marvel and Disney. It doesn't mean its already a guaranteed success, Prince of Persia, The Lone Ranger and John Carter were released by Disney. Incredible Hulk came from Marvel Studios and I'm pretty sure people don't watch films just because of the Marvel logo because if thats the case, movies like Elektra, Blade, Punisher, Ghost Rider, Daredevil, Hulk should have earned more money.
You're grasping at straws. PoP, TLR, & JC have nothing to do with Marvel, & have their own circumstances for failing.
TIH came out 4 years before TA, was poorly marketed, had a luke-warm recpetion & had nothing to do with Disney.

The other films also had nothing to do with either Marvel Studios or Disney.

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And as if people are just gonna watch a film because they have a connection with the Avengers.
Can you remind me what happened with the ratings for the Agents of SHIELD pilot? .... I can't quite seem to recall....

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Old 10-06-2013, 09:45 AM   #622
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Default Re: DOFP vs other 2014 ComicsMovies Thread [Buzz, BoxOffice and more]

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That would be Batman & Iron Man.
In terms of potential, arguable. Spider-Man rebooted 5 years after the franchise's previous installment, and retold the origin story featured in one of the most popular superhero films ever released just 10 years prior. It ditched everything audiences came to love about that franchise, and it still managed to pull in $750 million in a summer that was all about the Avengers and Batman. Lose Robert Downey Jr. and his version of Iron Man, and sandwich that movie between two of the biggest superhero films of all time, and I doubt Iron Man holds up much better.

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The Avengers & IM3 say "Hi!". I don't see TASM2 coming anywhere close to IM3, let alone TA.
Probably talking about the 2014 Marvel films.

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Can you remind me what happened with the ratings for the Agents of SHIELD pilot? .... I can't quite seem to recall....
It premiered big, and then lost a big chunk of its audience, which I guess also goes to show that audiences are perfectly willing to move on. While I don't doubt the power of a Disney backed Marvel, and am sure Guardians of the Galaxy will do just fine, I think people are beginning to underestimate the significance of fads.


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Old 10-06-2013, 10:31 AM   #623
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Default Re: DOFP vs other 2014 ComicsMovies Thread [Buzz, BoxOffice and more]

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That would be Batman & Iron Man.


Not quite true, here's why:

As of now in terms of commercial success it's Batman followed by Spider-Man, this is a statistical fact which can be proven if you google it (I would link but I'm using iOS). If TASM2 even makes just 500-600 million he will take Batman's place.

Sure Iron Man is hot right now but he's only really been a thing in the past year or two. Spider-Man has been mega popular for much longer.

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Old 10-06-2013, 04:14 PM   #624
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Default Re: DOFP vs other 2014 ComicsMovies Thread [Buzz, BoxOffice and more]

Who in their right mind thinks GoTG and 50 Shades of Grey would be competing for the same demographic?!?! That's absolutely absurd!

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Old 10-06-2013, 04:28 PM   #625
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Default Re: DOFP vs other 2014 ComicsMovies Thread [Buzz, BoxOffice and more]

50 shades of grey will be lucky if it hits 100 million domesticly.

Due to the Wolverine getting 242 Million overseas it's the third highest grossing X-Men film
worldwide.WHile it's lowest grossing X-Men film domesticly it's highest grossing film overseas.Now if a solo wolverine film can do those overseas number imagine what a team film with some of familar faces from the 2 highest gross WW X-Men films The Last Stand and X2 can do.DOFP could do between 250 and 300 million overseas.

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