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View Poll Results: What do YOU think Thor Dark World will do?
500 Million 8 7.08%
550 Million 10 8.85%
600 Million 10 8.85%
650 Million 10 8.85%
700 Million 17 15.04%
750 Million 16 14.16%
800 Million 22 19.47%
850 Million 8 7.08%
900 Million 3 2.65%
950 Million 1 0.88%
1 Billion plus 8 7.08%
Voters: 113. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 11-25-2013, 11:03 AM   #276
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions - Part 1

Lol at the 'disappointment' being shown around here. Look, this thing is looking at 620+ mill worldwide, if you're disappointed, then you probably set your sights a little too high. Look at these numbers in their own space instead of comparing them to Avengers/IM3. Just because its a Marvel film doesnt mean its obligated to make crazy insane amounts of money. Catching Fire is going to make about a 100 mill more WW, Star Trek didnt increase much even following a stellar first movie. More often than not, these things have a ceiling. When things like Avengers and IM3 happen, its a huge anomaly and shouldnt be used as a standard to judge other franchises.

I said from the top when i Predicted a 630-650 finish that people are setting themselves up for disappointment with all the 800 mill+ predicts. Thor doesnt have that kind of pull folks, Avengers bump or not. The 3rd movie if great can maybe push 700 mill and thats more that fine. Cap 2 will probaby top out around 520 mill, Guardians probably less. Disney knows that.

Not every movie is going to be a grand slam folks. Sometimes it will be a simple homerun or a double. And thats more than OK.

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Old 11-25-2013, 11:25 AM   #277
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions - Part 1

Quote:
Originally Posted by T"Challa View Post
Lol at the 'disappointment' being shown around here. Look, this thing is looking at 620+ mill worldwide, if you're disappointed, then you probably set your sights a little too high. Look at these numbers in their own space instead of comparing them to Avengers/IM3. Just because its a Marvel film doesnt mean its obligated to make crazy insane amounts of money. Catching Fire is going to make about a 100 mill more WW, Star Trek didnt increase much even following a stellar first movie. More often than not, these things have a ceiling. When things like Avengers and IM3 happen, its a huge anomaly and shouldnt be used as a standard to judge other franchises.

I said from the top when i Predicted a 630-650 finish that people are setting themselves up for disappointment with all the 800 mill+ predicts. Thor doesnt have that kind of pull folks, Avengers bump or not. The 3rd movie if great can maybe push 700 mill and thats more that fine. Cap 2 will probaby top out around 520 mill, Guardians probably less. Disney knows that.

Not every movie is going to be a grand slam folks. Sometimes it will be a simple homerun or a double. And thats more than OK.

It's all true and as I said in a long-winded post earlier---Thor is a little too much for some 'serious' movie-goers. My older brother saw IM 1 and liked it, but he wouldn't watch Thor for a second because "it's silly".

As if Iron Man is in any way a 'realistic' movie! LOL.

Some people just think fantasy and sci-fi and super hero is nonsense, but a Howard Hughes type who builds weapons for the govt sounds sort of plausible.

Batman and now iron man will always have that false (IMO) ring of 'realism' to some people.

Seriously is Iron Man 3 twice as good as Thor TDW? Part of it will always be just a popularity contest and not straight up quality.

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Old 11-25-2013, 11:25 AM   #278
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions - Part 1

Eh, worrying about the box office too much when you are getting a sequel as sorta pointless.

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Old 11-25-2013, 11:46 AM   #279
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions - Part 1

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Originally Posted by Krystal View Post
It's all true and as I said in a long-winded post earlier---Thor is a little too much for some 'serious' movie-goers. My older brother saw IM 1 and liked it, but he wouldn't watch Thor for a second because "it's silly".

As if Iron Man is in any way a 'realistic' movie! LOL.

Some people just think fantasy and sci-fi and super hero is nonsense, but a Howard Hughes type who builds weapons for the govt sounds sort of plausible.

Batman and now iron man will always have that false (IMO) ring of 'realism' to some people.

Seriously is Iron Man 3 twice as good as Thor TDW? Part of it will always be just a popularity contest and not straight up quality.
Because of they lack of inborn or gained superpowers they are viewed as someone whom anyone can become if they work hard enough. This is false of course but that the appeal of "everyman" they have. Like some children(my friend`s nephews) answered that they like IM because they cam become one and don't like Thor as they cant possibly become him among the other things like that he is boring and not into technology and look "stupid like a Barbi".

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Old 11-25-2013, 11:52 AM   #280
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions - Part 1

Quote:
Originally Posted by T"Challa View Post
Lol at the 'disappointment' being shown around here. Look, this thing is looking at 620+ mill worldwide, if you're disappointed, then you probably set your sights a little too high. Look at these numbers in their own space instead of comparing them to Avengers/IM3. Just because its a Marvel film doesnt mean its obligated to make crazy insane amounts of money. Catching Fire is going to make about a 100 mill more WW, Star Trek didnt increase much even following a stellar first movie. More often than not, these things have a ceiling. When things like Avengers and IM3 happen, its a huge anomaly and shouldnt be used as a standard to judge other franchises.

I said from the top when i Predicted a 630-650 finish that people are setting themselves up for disappointment with all the 800 mill+ predicts. Thor doesnt have that kind of pull folks, Avengers bump or not. The 3rd movie if great can maybe push 700 mill and thats more that fine. Cap 2 will probaby top out around 520 mill, Guardians probably less. Disney knows that.

Not every movie is going to be a grand slam folks. Sometimes it will be a simple homerun or a double. And thats more than OK.
It will only be a "disappointment" domestically, and not by much. Internationally it's already made more than Man of Steel. I was thinking domestically it could have made 250-300.

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Old 11-25-2013, 11:59 AM   #281
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions - Part 1

Quote:
Originally Posted by Krystal View Post
It's all true and as I said in a long-winded post earlier---Thor is a little too much for some 'serious' movie-goers. My older brother saw IM 1 and liked it, but he wouldn't watch Thor for a second because "it's silly".

As if Iron Man is in any way a 'realistic' movie! LOL.

Some people just think fantasy and sci-fi and super hero is nonsense, but a Howard Hughes type who builds weapons for the govt sounds sort of plausible.

Batman and now iron man will always have that false (IMO) ring of 'realism' to some people.

Seriously is Iron Man 3 twice as good as Thor TDW? Part of it will always be just a popularity contest and not straight up quality.
Which one is better will be in the eye of the beholder. It's clear that Marvel is comfortable with each of these films having their own style, and bringing everyone together for a group dynamic in Avengers.

Some people have been going around trying to convince people that this is a horrible movie, which is silly. They look silly doing it.

Marvel other than Avengers and the Iron Man films have had a tough time scheduling their films. Partially because they don't own all their properties. CA:TWS will have this same problem as it's going to get undercut by TASM2.

Marvel, like their sister company Pixar, has done a good job of keeping the flow of properties coming and trying to gain peoples interest to see something new like Guardians. When they see the "Marvel" logo, they know it will be a quality film, just like you know that with Pixar, and will always be successful on that level.

Having said that, not every film is going to have the popularity of Iron Man or Avengers. Those are a one in a million shot, and no one could have predicted it. Not one single box office expert thought Avengers would make more than the Dark Knight Rises, before both were released. There's no exact science to all this stuff.

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Old 11-25-2013, 12:03 PM   #282
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions - Part 1

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Originally Posted by I SEE SPIDEY View Post
Eh, worrying about the box office too much when you are getting a sequel as sorta pointless.
I'm not sure about that.

When a movie under-performs, the studio usually lowers the budget for the sequel.

In the case of the MOS sequel, they're crowding the film with other heroes in hopes of emulating "the Avengers boost".

So under-performing does alter things even when there's enough revenue to justify a sequel.

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Old 11-25-2013, 03:04 PM   #283
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions - Part 1

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Originally Posted by MessiahDecoy123 View Post
I'm not sure about that.

When a movie under-performs, the studio usually lowers the budget for the sequel.

In the case of the MOS sequel, they're crowding the film with other heroes in hopes of emulating "the Avengers boost".

So under-performing does alter things even when there's enough revenue to justify a sequel.
Have you taken the time to examine the numbers before you went on this "lower the budget for the sequel" nonsense?

- The first movie cost $150 million and grossed $449 million worldwide.
- T:TDW cost $170 million and has grossed $548.8 million in just 3 weeks time.

So let me get this straight. Production costs increased by $20 million for this sequel and yet they've made $100 million more than the first film. But we're supposed to believe they're going to now scale back the budget?

Is that crackhead math?

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Old 11-25-2013, 03:23 PM   #284
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions - Part 1

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Originally Posted by Rock Sexton View Post
Have you taken the time to examine the numbers before you went on this "lower the budget for the sequel" nonsense?

- The first movie cost $150 million and grossed $449 million worldwide.
- T:TDW cost $170 million and has grossed $548.8 million in just 3 weeks time.

So let me get this straight. Production costs increased by $20 million for this sequel and yet they've made $100 million more than the first film. But we're supposed to believe they're going to now scale back the budget?

Is that crackhead math?
I was referring to sequels in general.

Is that crackhead reading skills?

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Old 11-25-2013, 03:33 PM   #285
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions - Part 1

So between the 2 Thor movies they invested 370 Million and thus far have over 627 Million and counting in returns...
Impressive....

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Old 11-25-2013, 03:34 PM   #286
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions - Part 1

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Originally Posted by MessiahDecoy123 View Post
I was referring to sequels in general.

Is that crackhead reading skills?
Speaking of reading skills ..... you completely misunderstood what I See Spidey was saying in the first place.

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Old 11-25-2013, 03:35 PM   #287
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions - Part 1

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So between the 2 Thor movies they invested 370 Million and thus far have over 627 Million and counting in returns...
Impressive....
Not including toys, licensing, DVD/BluRay, and TV deals.

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Old 11-25-2013, 03:35 PM   #288
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions - Part 1

To clearify, I'm saying a sequel could get a lower budget or shifted story components because the studio didn't make what they wanted.

If you think I deserve to be called a crackhead for that then you probably have some deep seated issues that can't be easily solved.

Get help.


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Old 11-25-2013, 03:40 PM   #289
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions - Part 1

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Speaking of reading skills ..... you completely misunderstood what I See Spidey was saying in the first place.
Not at all.

She basically said as long as you get a sequel there's nothing to worry about.

I disagreed and used MOS 2 being crowded with superheroes to boost the box office as an example of a sequel being tainted by greedy studio executives.

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Old 11-25-2013, 03:41 PM   #290
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions - Part 1

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Originally Posted by MessiahDecoy123 View Post
To clearify, I'm saying a sequel could get a lower budget or shifted story components because the studio didn't make what they wanted.

If you think I deserve to be called a crackhead for that then you were probably have some deep seated issues that can't be easily solved.

Get help.
A studio isn't going to lower the budget because they "didn't make what they wanted" when they're currently up $100 (in three weeks time) million over the previous film with only a modest $20 million production cost bump. That is mind-numbing logic.

Feige: "Pfffft we need to lower the budget because we made legitimately more money in the sequel! But I wanted MOAR MOAR MOAR, so cut that budget!"

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Old 11-25-2013, 04:00 PM   #291
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions - Part 1

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Originally Posted by Rock Sexton View Post
A studio isn't going to lower the budget because they "didn't make what they wanted" when they're currently up $100 (in three weeks time) million over the previous film with only a modest $20 million production cost bump. That is mind-numbing logic.

Feige: "Pfffft we need to lower the budget because we made legitimately more money in the sequel! But I wanted MOAR MOAR MOAR, so cut that budget!"
I'm certain there are examples of studios cutting budgets for sequels even though the original made a profit.

Also there's the possibility that Disney canceled plans to increase the budget for Thor 3 because they wanted a wider profit margin from Thor 2.

Either way expanding, maintaining or decreasing the budget for a sequel depends on the studio's ever-changing budget policy, not necessarily yours.

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Old 11-25-2013, 04:41 PM   #292
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions - Part 1

Thor: The Dark World is probably barely profitable right now. $170 Million + $65 M in domestic promotion (Source: Boxoffice.com). I'm not even going to argue foreign promotion, since I don't have a source to support it, but I imagine it's equal to the Domestic P&A.

That means Thor: The Dark World is on, let's estimate a $280 M (Might be as high as $300 M) total spending budget. For the studio to profit based solely on ticket sales, the film will have to gross between $550-600 M. This is something it's bound to do, but the idea that Thor: The Dark World is a runaway success, giving Marvel hundreds of millions of dollars worth of profit is simply false.

Man of Steel is in a similar position. Boxoffice.com estimates an $80 M domestic promotional budget, atop the $220 M production budget. Add in additional foreign promotion, and we're looking at a $350-380 M spending total, requiring a $700 M+ return to be profitable, which means the $160 M MoS made on product placement drove it to profitability.


Food for thought.

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Old 11-25-2013, 06:10 PM   #293
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions - Part 1

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Originally Posted by MessiahDecoy123 View Post
I disagreed and used MOS 2 being crowded with superheroes to boost the box office as an example of a sequel being tainted by greedy studio executives.
You should've used another example. The only other confirmed hero for BvS we know about is Batman, everything else is pure rumor and speculation.

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Old 11-25-2013, 06:15 PM   #294
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions - Part 1

Weekend Actuals
$14,196,302 -61.2% $167,917,123

Domestic: $167,917,123 30.6%
+ Foreign: $381,000,000 69.4%
= Worldwide: $548,917,123
http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=thor2.htm

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Old 11-25-2013, 06:30 PM   #295
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions - Part 1

Quote:
Originally Posted by T"Challa View Post
Lol at the 'disappointment' being shown around here. Look, this thing is looking at 620+ mill worldwide, if you're disappointed, then you probably set your sights a little too high. Look at these numbers in their own space instead of comparing them to Avengers/IM3. Just because its a Marvel film doesnt mean its obligated to make crazy insane amounts of money. Catching Fire is going to make about a 100 mill more WW, Star Trek didnt increase much even following a stellar first movie. More often than not, these things have a ceiling. When things like Avengers and IM3 happen, its a huge anomaly and shouldnt be used as a standard to judge other franchises.

I said from the top when i Predicted a 630-650 finish that people are setting themselves up for disappointment with all the 800 mill+ predicts. Thor doesnt have that kind of pull folks, Avengers bump or not. The 3rd movie if great can maybe push 700 mill and thats more that fine. Cap 2 will probaby top out around 520 mill, Guardians probably less. Disney knows that.

Not every movie is going to be a grand slam folks. Sometimes it will be a simple homerun or a double. And thats more than OK.
People's expectations were ridiculous. This movie was never going to make $300 million domestic. The most optimistic pre-release tracking numbers had it at $240 to $250 million at best.

The fantasy aspect probably did hurt it domestically but helped it overseas. It will still finish in the top ten grossing movies worldwide for the year right behind MOS.

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Old 11-25-2013, 07:00 PM   #296
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions - Part 1

Marvel releases their films 'everywhere' at once. It's great for momentum and headlines that fuel as such. I'm curious just how much international juice it has left in the take at this point. The benefit of fall is that you don't have to deal with new releases every week, however hunger games and (disney's) frozen look to be substantial releases when it comes to the Thor 2 crowd.

Perhaps marvel should have swapped thor2 and im3 if only for that Avengers immediate sequel boost.

If WB doesn't release a Pacific Rim sequel then they really screwed up by not giving that release to MOS. July was epically lull this year, whilst june was surprisingly competitive.

Lastly, if people are going to add "promotional" cost estimates into their 'math' why not dvd and bluray sales, why not tnt licensing deals on top of that. Seems like we are talking full costs and subtracting it from theatrical gross alone to get...the studio's total revenue?

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Old 11-25-2013, 07:53 PM   #297
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions - Part 1

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Originally Posted by Marvin View Post
Marvel releases their films 'everywhere' at once. It's great for momentum and headlines that fuel as such. I'm curious just how much international juice it has left in the take at this point. The benefit of fall is that you don't have to deal with new releases every week, however hunger games and (disney's) frozen look to be substantial releases when it comes to the Thor 2 crowd.

Perhaps marvel should have swapped thor2 and im3 if only for that Avengers immediate sequel boost.

If WB doesn't release a Pacific Rim sequel then they really screwed up by not giving that release to MOS. July was epically lull this year, whilst june was surprisingly competitive.

Lastly, if people are going to add "promotional" cost estimates into their 'math' why not dvd and bluray sales, why not tnt licensing deals on top of that. Seems like we are talking full costs and subtracting it from theatrical gross alone to get...the studio's total revenue?
Just out of curiosity do you happen to have a good reliable dvd/bluray sales site?

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Old 11-25-2013, 08:22 PM   #298
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions - Part 1

^nope

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Old 11-25-2013, 08:43 PM   #299
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions - Part 1

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Just out of curiosity do you happen to have a good reliable dvd/bluray sales site?
Don't know how reliable but here's one that I know of

http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Man...el#tab=summary

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Old 11-26-2013, 07:47 AM   #300
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions - Part 1

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Originally Posted by KangConquers View Post
Thor: The Dark World is probably barely profitable right now. $170 Million + $65 M in domestic promotion (Source: Boxoffice.com). I'm not even going to argue foreign promotion, since I don't have a source to support it, but I imagine it's equal to the Domestic P&A.

That means Thor: The Dark World is on, let's estimate a $280 M (Might be as high as $300 M) total spending budget. For the studio to profit based solely on ticket sales, the film will have to gross between $550-600 M. This is something it's bound to do, but the idea that Thor: The Dark World is a runaway success, giving Marvel hundreds of millions of dollars worth of profit is simply false.

Man of Steel is in a similar position. Boxoffice.com estimates an $80 M domestic promotional budget, atop the $220 M production budget. Add in additional foreign promotion, and we're looking at a $350-380 M spending total, requiring a $700 M+ return to be profitable, which means the $160 M MoS made on product placement drove it to profitability.


Food for thought.
Gotta love that product placement !

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