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View Poll Results: How do you think Captain America: The Winter Soldier will do?
$1.5 billion 3 1.63%
$1 billion 8 4.35%
$900 million 11 5.98%
$800 million 20 10.87%
$700 million 45 24.46%
$600 million 53 28.80%
$500 million 38 20.65%
$400 million 4 2.17%
$300 million 2 1.09%
$200 million 0 0%
Voters: 184. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 04-07-2014, 01:00 PM   #26
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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Originally Posted by kedrell View Post
While true it matters whether we're talking about a closed franchise like HP or an open ended one like Bond or the MCU. Since the MCU is open ended I suspect it'll be some time till any franchise takes it's top spot once it beats HP next year. Bond doesn't make enough films fast enough to ever catch up again(very unlikely to at least) and that also goes for just about every other franchise as well. Marvel Studios's 2 films or more a year pace really gives them a nearly insurmountable advantage over other franchises.
lol, no one is ever catching up.

Marvel Studios plans on releasing 2 or 3 movies per year until 2028.

MCU is destined to the biggest, most successful franchise in history. Disney hit the jackpot.

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Old 04-07-2014, 01:29 PM   #27
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

Well I read on Io9 the other day that WB has plans to make movies in the HP universe starting with that book that came out not too long ago that didn't have the original characters in it so HP isn't dead yet. You know WB is gonna milk that cow for as long as they can. However we shall see if the movies can stand on their own without the Boy Who Lived.

And $96.2 mil DOM and $303 mil WW is freaking great! So glad the MCU is breaking records. I def think Cap is going to make BvS consider moving from that slot especially when you take into account how big A:AoU will blow up and that's a given really.

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Old 04-07-2014, 02:45 PM   #28
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

Figure this can go here. So as of now, we are looking at Captain America 3 vs. Batman vs. Superman on May 1st. Now, almost every pundit I've read assumes that one of the companies will blink and move their film.

Now, in my mind, despite how good/successful The Winter Soldier is, the Batman/Superman movie is the more marquis event. It's, literally, the two most famous superheroes of all time in one movie. The mixed reaction to Man of Steel almost doesn't matter because, again, it's Batman versus Superman. So on that basis one would think Marvel would be the one to move their film.

But there are two things that make me think WB will actually end up backing down -

1. I think Marvel is as confident as they can be. And if GOTG can be even a mild success, and with the kind of monster Age of Ultron will be, I think Marvel (and rightfully so) will have the arrogance to not worry about it.

2. I have a feeling, given how stuffed this Batman/Superman movie sounds like it could be, they end up having to move the movie back a bit to get it right (i.e. post-production).

We'll see

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Old 04-07-2014, 02:55 PM   #29
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

...


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Old 04-07-2014, 03:00 PM   #30
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

I actually really want one of the franchises (either Cap 3 or BvS) to move to April. That month is wide open, and Cap's shown that it's possible to score a huge opening weekend out of "season".

WB should consider getting the jump on Marvel Studios and Disney and schedule BvS a month or a couple of weeks before May 6th. Or if they wanted it to play like a summer movie, I think June '16 is wide open for now.

Either way, it's cannibalistic for both movies to open the same weekend. While I'd think BvS would score huge at the box office and likely beat Cap, Cap will be a monster and eat into any potential BO receipts for WB.

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Old 04-07-2014, 03:13 PM   #31
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

I think most sane people on here would agree that BvS is the bigger event and in turn moneymaker. The question is why would a studio not want to maximise they're take by having it go without any competition. If smart people are making decisions here one of them will be moving. Its inevitable isn't it?

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Old 04-07-2014, 03:19 PM   #32
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

One of them will move. And it isnt a matter of "flinching" or being scared. It'd just be bad for business to have them both on the same weekend. It won't happen.

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Movies I have seen this year (in theaters):
Saving Mr. Banks- 9/10, Jack Ryan- 7/10, The Lego Movie- 9/10, Non-Stop- 8/10, Captain America: The Winter Soldier- 10/10, The Amazing Spider-Man 2-8/10, Godzilla- 7/10, Days of Future Past- 8.5/10, Edge of Tomorrow- 8.5/10, Transformers 4- 7/10, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes- 10/10, Guardians of the Galaxy- 9/10, TMNT- 7.5/10, Maze Runner- 8/10, Expendables 3- 7/10, Interstellar-9/10, Big Hero 6- 8.5/10
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Old 04-07-2014, 03:27 PM   #33
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

From a business metric, the battle for May 6, 2016 is really interesting to follow. For purposes of blogging and clickbaiting, everyone is framing it as Marvel vs. DC. Which… that's not annoying at all

But for B.O./moviemaking? I like reading possible best/worst case scenarios for either studio should both movies come out. And I also like discussing the other business practicalities of the release date strategy. I'm convinced WB did that initially to garner buzz for a project that's hit a couple of pre-prod. snags. I'm also convinced Marvel prematurely "leaked" Cap 3 taking the spot in the middle of all the pre-screenings to increase buzz for the new film. Now they're making it official after Cap's record breaking weekend to maybe help kick those second week legs into gear and keep Cap in the news.

I think it's smart on Marvel's part.

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Old 04-07-2014, 03:30 PM   #34
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

Quote:
Originally Posted by marcvader View Post
I think most sane people on here would agree that BvS is the bigger event and in turn moneymaker. The question is why would a studio not want to maximise they're take by having it go without any competition. If smart people are making decisions here one of them will be moving. Its inevitable isn't it?
Because it was a PR stunt. They didn't just accidently choose the same weekend as Marvel. The production on this film has been a disaster. It started out as a Justice League film that was announced right after Avengers had come out. They fired the writer on that, and then only after MoS did well, did it morph in to Batman vs. Superman, then they fired Goyer after reading his scripts which according to industry sources was terrible. Then they had to move the production back so it would no longer open the same summer as AoU, so they decided to point the middle finger at Marvel and open it on a then "undisclosed" sequel date.

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Old 04-07-2014, 03:37 PM   #35
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

So the film's weekend actual number is 95mil.

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Old 04-07-2014, 03:49 PM   #36
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

Off by about 1.2 mil.... Not bad!

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Old 04-07-2014, 04:02 PM   #37
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

Not bad at all.

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Old 04-07-2014, 04:07 PM   #38
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

Wow I'm so happy for Cap with this success also Chris Evans I've been a fan of his
since Not another teen movie good to see him have success

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Old 04-07-2014, 05:08 PM   #39
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

According to BOM, the MCU is the highest-grossing franchise in the DOM market:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/franchi...er=DESC&p=.htm

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Old 04-07-2014, 09:02 PM   #40
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1



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Old 04-08-2014, 03:03 PM   #41
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

Yoo-hoooooo…

Quote:
Exhibitor Relations ‏@ERCboxoffice 2m
CAPTAIN AMERICA: WINTER SOLDIER joined the $100+M club in 4 days, earning $6.2M on Monday.
Go Cap! I want it to surpass the first Captain America by Friday/Saturday.

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Old 04-08-2014, 03:16 PM   #42
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

Awesome! In the words of Anthony Mackie, "we made it, Jimmy, we made it!"

VIDEO-CLick to Watch!:

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Old 04-08-2014, 03:18 PM   #43
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

Delighted that this has done the business at the box office.

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Old 04-08-2014, 03:40 PM   #44
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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Awesome! In the words of Anthony Mackie, "we made it, Jimmy, we made it!"

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That was hilarious.

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Old 04-08-2014, 04:22 PM   #45
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

Cue the haters who don't want TWS to hit that $600m mark about how Thor:TDW made $10.4m on the first Monday, forgetting how that Monday was a holiday in which students had the day off.


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Old 04-08-2014, 05:05 PM   #46
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

I honestly don't know what to think about this Monday number. It's definitely important that it increases decently today.

It's not a perfect comparison because this film came out at the end of April but Cap 2 had the exact same Monday as Fast Five. That doesn't mean it's going to drop 62% because unlike Fast Five it's not going up against a movie with the exact same audience in week two and it could increase more Thursday to Friday to Saturday. So I'm still in wait and see mode until Thursday afternoon.

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Old 04-08-2014, 05:06 PM   #47
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

Quote:
exhibitor relations ‏@ercboxoffice 2m
captain america: Winter soldier joined the $100+m club in 4 days, earning $6.2m on monday.
bravo

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Old 04-08-2014, 05:35 PM   #48
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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I honestly don't know what to think about this Monday number. It's definitely important that it increases decently today.

It's not a perfect comparison because this film came out at the end of April but Cap 2 had the exact same Monday as Fast Five. That doesn't mean it's going to drop 62% because unlike Fast Five it's not going up against a movie with the exact same audience in week two and it could increase more Thursday to Friday to Saturday. So I'm still in wait and see mode until Thursday afternoon.
I think, according to a mod over at BOM, it lines up with normal April Monday drops too, so according to them, it's decent. I believe it lines up with IM2 as well. Hm…

At least it's past $100mil. though. I do hope for a good boost tomorrow. I wonder if it's a little under what the projections were after those "midnights" because… well, it's way less family friendly than either CA1 or The Avengers.

I just can't see it dropping so hard this week, not with the great WOM and the critical success. (Or maybe that's the fangirl in me talking).

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Old 04-08-2014, 05:43 PM   #49
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

Im most curious about the second weekend totals.

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Old 04-08-2014, 05:51 PM   #50
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

This is going to be a rollercoaster ride....like the RT thread was last week.

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