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View Poll Results: How do you think Captain America: The Winter Soldier will do?
$1.5 billion 3 1.63%
$1 billion 8 4.35%
$900 million 11 5.98%
$800 million 20 10.87%
$700 million 45 24.46%
$600 million 53 28.80%
$500 million 38 20.65%
$400 million 4 2.17%
$300 million 2 1.09%
$200 million 0 0%
Voters: 184. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 04-08-2014, 04:59 PM   #51
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

I definitely don't see it dropping 60%, I just like to compare. Hell, Iron Man did 6.9mil in May but because it played younger it had big increases during the weekend. I'm still thinking 50-57%, this Monday number hasn't changed that.

Only a kids film (Rio 2) is being released and although I think that film will open with 40-45mil I think non direct competition in Cap 2's second weekend is a good thing for the film.

Suzanne, you hit upon why I don't know what to think about how it will play this upcoming weekend. The film was a little more frontloaded opening weekend than some anticipated. It is less family friendly than those films (which is why it's my favorite Marvel movie so far) but it's still fun and exciting and awesome. If the audience likes a movie enough family friendly doesn't matter.

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Old 04-08-2014, 05:15 PM   #52
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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Originally Posted by Ms. Marvel View Post
This is going to be a rollercoaster ride....like the RT thread was last week.
Except waaaaaay worse… b/c this movie's going to be in theaters for a while LOL!

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I definitely don't see it dropping 60%, I just like to compare. Hell, Iron Man did 6.9mil in May but because it played younger it had big increases during the weekend. I'm still thinking 50-57%, this Monday number hasn't changed that.

Only a kids film (Rio 2) is being released and although I think that film will open with 40-45mil I think non direct competition in Cap 2's second weekend is a good thing for the film.

Suzanne, you hit upon why I don't know what to think about how it will play this upcoming weekend. The film was a little more frontloaded opening weekend than some anticipated. It is less family friendly than those films (which is why it's my favorite Marvel movie so far) but it's still fun and exciting and awesome. If the audience likes a movie enough family friendly doesn't matter.
Yeah. I mean, I'm hopeful b/c the reviews are fantastic (and they're still collecting more positives today, at least one more posted, so maybe 3 more until it inches back up into the 90s), and the CinemaScore at least indicates that the audience polled loved it (A), but the weekdays, at the very least, may be a little weaker than IM1 due to school and it not playing to families…

Holding out for 50-57% hold this weekend. I'd love for it to reach $170 by Sunday ($69mil more to go).

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Old 04-08-2014, 05:21 PM   #53
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

I think 170 by Monday morning is doable.

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Old 04-08-2014, 05:53 PM   #54
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

So what are your final predictions guys? (DOM, OS and WW)

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Old 04-08-2014, 06:03 PM   #55
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

I'll stick with $230 for now DOM, OS $410. Final WW $640.

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Old 04-08-2014, 06:06 PM   #56
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

So a 2.4 multiplier, same as Thor 2.

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Old 04-08-2014, 06:26 PM   #57
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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So a 2.4 multiplier, same as Thor 2.
Can you explain how you do multipliers? I'm lowballing HSX's projection of around $240…

I hope the multiplier is closer to 2.5- 2.6… not that I know how to calculate that per se, I just know it means better LOL!

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Old 04-08-2014, 06:33 PM   #58
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

Multiply by the opening weekend (I think lol).

So a 2.5 multiplier should be around $238m and 2.6 should be $247m.

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Old 04-08-2014, 06:46 PM   #59
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

April weekdays were always going the weak. Just means better weekends, though the film does skew older so it might hurt the legs.

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Old 04-08-2014, 06:52 PM   #60
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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April weekdays were always going the weak. Just means better weekends, though the film does skew older so it might hurt the legs.
Yeah I assumed that the weekend was going to make up for it.

I don't think the film is too dark for kids though. If exploding fire people and dead people's shadows on walls isn't too dark I think this will be fine.

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Old 04-08-2014, 06:56 PM   #61
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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Yeah I assumed that the weekend was going to make up for it.

I don't think the film is too dark for kids though. If exploding fire people and dead people's shadows on walls isn't too dark I think this will be fine.
Nah, I think this subject matter is a far more visceral. The tone of the film adds to this.

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Old 04-08-2014, 06:57 PM   #62
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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Yeah I assumed that the weekend was going to make up for it.

I don't think the film is too dark for kids though. If exploding fire people and dead people's shadows on walls isn't too dark I think this will be fine.
The violence in Avengers and the first Cap was more cartoony-sci fi than TWS.

The line I draw is excessive gunplay and hand-to-hand. Which means my son won't see this until he's quite a bit older. Depending on where he's at, maybe 8+ to 10 years old….

I just really, really hope the weekend makes up for nay potential weak weekdays. But I'll be okay if TWS tracks with normal April numbers during the week.

Oh and Ms. Marvel, I'm *drooling* over your avatar! Mmmm…

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Old 04-08-2014, 07:11 PM   #63
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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The violence in Avengers and the first Cap was more cartoony-sci fi than TWS.

The line I draw is excessive gunplay and hand-to-hand. Which means my son won't see this until he's quite a bit older. Depending on where he's at, maybe 8+ to 10 years old….

I just really, really hope the weekend makes up for nay potential weak weekdays. But I'll be okay if TWS tracks with normal April numbers during the week.

Oh and Ms. Marvel, I'm *drooling* over your avatar! Mmmm…
That is a fair point, with their use of laser guns (?) and whatnot.

Oh yeah....... specimen.

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Old 04-08-2014, 07:21 PM   #64
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

The glasses and the ball cap hotness was almost too much for me to bare. I just wanted to...I can't say or I'll get in trouble.

I hate projecting without at least a second weekend but I'll do it just because you asked nicely. I'm crap at projecting international numbers so lets stick to North American numbers shall we?

I'll project a 245mil total.

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Old 04-08-2014, 07:24 PM   #65
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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The glasses and the ball cap hotness was almost too much for me to bare. I just wanted to...I can't say or I'll get in trouble.

I hate projecting without at least a second weekend but I'll do it just because you asked nicely. I'm crap at projecting international numbers so lets stick to North American numbers shall we?

I'll project a 245mil total.
$262.3mil domestic on the button.

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Old 04-08-2014, 07:33 PM   #66
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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$262.3mil domestic on the button.
I like your projection more than my own.

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Old 04-08-2014, 07:42 PM   #67
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

$1.5 billion (DOM).

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Old 04-08-2014, 08:05 PM   #68
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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$1.5 billion (DOM).
Ms. Marvel definitely knows how to dream a little bigger, darling.

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Old 04-08-2014, 10:11 PM   #69
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

I have little doubt that after the next weekend Cap2 will pass Lego Movie to be #1 WW of 2014. Still will need about $75M at most to catch Lego Movie DOM although, which I'm certain it will be able to do.

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Old 04-09-2014, 12:15 PM   #70
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

TWS as of Wed:
China: $59,164,200
South Korea: $21,124,058

TDW Totals:
China: $55,340,000
South Korea: $21,114,584

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Old 04-09-2014, 12:27 PM   #71
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

According to a very reliable poster over at BoxOffice.com forums, CATWS made $7mil yesterday, a "hefty" bump!

So, we could be looking at around $45-49mil for the weekend, perhaps? Would be a fantastic result, and with Rio 2 getting mixed reviews and tracking around $40mil, Cap could retain the number one spot, maybe.

Unless all the families ever just flock to Rio… I have a toddler, but zero desire to see it.

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Old 04-09-2014, 12:58 PM   #72
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

I thought it would hit 7mil yesterday, actually 7.2mil.

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Old 04-09-2014, 01:10 PM   #73
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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According to a very reliable poster over at BoxOffice.com forums, CATWS made $7mil yesterday, a "hefty" bump!

So, we could be looking at around $45-49mil for the weekend, perhaps? Would be a fantastic result, and with Rio 2 getting mixed reviews and tracking around $40mil, Cap could retain the number one spot, maybe.

Unless all the families ever just flock to Rio… I have a toddler, but zero desire to see it.
It will have the final How to Train Your Dragon 2 trailer. Probably worth the price of the ticket.

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Old 04-09-2014, 01:16 PM   #74
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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It will have the final How to Train Your Dragon 2 trailer. Probably worth the price of the ticket.
Don't people watch trailers on YouTube nowadays, instead of spending money to see it in the theatre?

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Old 04-09-2014, 01:20 PM   #75
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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Don't people watch trailers on YouTube nowadays, instead of spending money to see it in the theatre?
Some still like to see them on the big screen.

Which reminds me, I still haven't seen GotG on the big screen and I have seen TWS twice.

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