Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I saw the GOTG trailer before my showing of Cap. My mom seemed a little confused and amused and she didn't even know another X-Men film was coming out.

[DarthSkywalker]

When it comes to X-Men, they keep on showing the first trailer when I go. I want to see the new one in all its glory.

[spideymouse]

Originally Posted by DarthSkywalker

When it comes to X-Men, they keep on showing the first trailer when I go. I want to see the new one in all its glory.

Where do you live that you keep getting shafted by outdated trailer sets in front of new movies??

[marcvader]

So it's 6.9 mil Tuesday.

[Suzanne78]

Yep! Just a little off of that $7mil est.

Goooooo Cap!

[JKKS085]

So far the week days are stronger than Iron Man's.

[Suzanne78]

I would definitely be fine if this movie outgrossed IM1

[kedrell]

I'd be fine if EVERY one of these MCU films grossed more than IM1 and that's still my favorite superhero film of all time.

[kedrell]

So what are we thinking? About $118-120M going into the 2nd weekend? Probably a $45-50M weekend and passing Cap1 DOM sometime during next week's weekdays. I think $250M is a lock at this point and probably will go quite higher.

[NJCaliboi]

So as of right this second Cap3 is at: $108,220,329 (US)

After wed and thursday (going into Friday) it will likely be around: $118mil (US)

So my guess for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday will be 57 Million....

So my prediction come Monday morning is right around: $175mil (US)

[kedrell]

A $57M 2nd weekend is very optimistic. That's just a 40% drop. Most big openers are considered good if they can just hold on to 50%. IM1 dropped 48% I think which at the time was seen as very good. If this film drops only 40% then I'd say $300M DOM is close to a lock(and I think it can still get to $300M with IM1-type legs which aren't near as optimistic as a 40% drop).

[Mr. Dent]

No way will it get $57m, that is an incredible hold. I'll be happy if it can get $48m.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I'm thinking 45mil.

[kedrell]

I'm hoping it can get $50M. IM1 with a few $M more on opening weekend got something like $52M in it's 2nd weekend as I recall.

[kedrell]

And we really don't know what effect this new release date will do to skew the #'s. Many places have spring break already and I heard that it's staggered district to district throughout the month of April so the entirety of kids at school aren't all out at the same time ala' winter break and the summer months. Fast Five was released with only 1 week of April left to go back in 2011.

[NJCaliboi]

I can't help it you u guys, I'm an eternal optomist, always have been. A 40% drop may not be likely, but it's certainly possible- so I will be the highend of the guesses and someone else can predict a 70% drop.

I just figure the word of mouth is so incredibly high and that 57million spread over 3 days for a movie with not a lot of direct competition is doable....fingers crossed. This movie definitely deserves to have just a 40% drop, but maybe that's not too realistic after all.

[Suzanne78]

Originally Posted by I SEE SPIDEY

I'm thinking 45mil.

I'll go… $46.5mil.

[Raiden]

I'm hoping for 45 mil as well.

[marcvader]

Im going 47 mil.

[kedrell]

I have little doubt with the critical and audience ratings this has got that $45M will be achieved. That's almost a 53% drop which is barely above an average drop(55-60% range) at best.

I'm hoping for a 47.5% drop or lower.

[Ms. Marvel]

How come it's doing so well in Asia?

[xeno000]

Originally Posted by Ms. Marvel

How come it's doing so well in Asia?

It's getting terrific word of mouth, the market for superhero/action films is expanding there and Captain America has a much higher profile after The Avengers. The cast also made promotional appearances to raise awareness and the mighty Disney marketing machine did a great job with the campaign. A good overall performance in Asia isn't surprising, but the China numbers are incredible. CATWS actually made more in its first three days than IM3 did in a similar period even though the latter film had those special Chinese sequences.


This weekend I'm hoping for at least $45 million. It's insane that TWS will make as much as TFA's entire run in less than 2 full weeks.

[Ms. Marvel]

Yeah the China numbers are incredible. Does anyone know how it's doing in Europe?

[Mysteryman]

Originally Posted by NJCaliboi

So as of right this second Cap3 is at: $108,220,329 (US)

After wed and thursday (going into Friday) it will likely be around: $118mil (US)

So my guess for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday will be 57 Million....

So my prediction come Monday morning is right around: $175mil (US)

CA3 is out already?
Man , that was fast, I just saw the second one last week!

[Mysteryman]

Originally Posted by NJCaliboi

I can't help it you u guys, I'm an eternal optomist, always have been. A 40% drop may not be likely, but it's certainly possible- so I will be the highend of the guesses and someone else can predict a 70% drop.

I just figure the word of mouth is so incredibly high and that 57million spread over 3 days for a movie with not a lot of direct competition is doable....fingers crossed. This movie definitely deserves to have just a 40% drop, but maybe that's not too realistic after all.

I don't think anybody here is going to predict a 70% drop..
Personally, I am going to go with 48 million.