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View Poll Results: How do you think Captain America: The Winter Soldier will do?
$1.5 billion 3 1.63%
$1 billion 8 4.35%
$900 million 11 5.98%
$800 million 20 10.87%
$700 million 45 24.46%
$600 million 53 28.80%
$500 million 38 20.65%
$400 million 4 2.17%
$300 million 2 1.09%
$200 million 0 0%
Voters: 184. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 04-09-2014, 11:42 PM   #101
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

I predict a 100% drop.

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Old 04-09-2014, 11:44 PM   #102
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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Yeah the China numbers are incredible. Does anyone know how it's doing in Europe?
I heard it's not doing as well as Asia, which perplexes me since Cap is a WWII hero and in TFA he pretty much saved much of Europe from Nazi/HYDRA occupation. I thought the Europeans will look at Cap favorably.

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Old 04-09-2014, 11:50 PM   #103
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

Cap 2 might steal spidey's thunder

though i want spidey 2 to gross 1 billion

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Old 04-10-2014, 12:20 AM   #104
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

I don't follow this stuff very closely so the numbers y'all are tossing around don't mean much. I trust it's performing well though

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Old 04-10-2014, 12:31 AM   #105
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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I heard it's not doing as well as Asia, which perplexes me since Cap is a WWII hero and in TFA he pretty much saved much of Europe from Nazi/HYDRA occupation. I thought the Europeans will look at Cap favorably.
Yeah, not so much.

WW2 was a long time ago. These days, the USA as an entity is far more idolized in the Asian nations than Western Europe. Could point to any number of things, George W. Bush was really despised over there for instance, but there is a lot of cynicism felt towards the US in most European nations. At least compared to Japan/Korea/etc.

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Old 04-10-2014, 12:37 AM   #106
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

Almost like saying The Wolverine should do well in Japan cause...it takes place in Japan.

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Old 04-10-2014, 08:00 AM   #107
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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CA3 is out already?
Man , that was fast, I just saw the second one last week!
Did you just make another one? I assume you just made another one.

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Old 04-10-2014, 01:30 PM   #108
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

What are the 2nd weekend projections? How does it compare to TDW at same time so far?

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Old 04-10-2014, 03:12 PM   #109
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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What are the 2nd weekend projections? How does it compare to TDW at same time so far?
Not sure what the official projections are at this point, but if you base it off what people in this thread are guessing you fall between a low of 40 million and a high of 57 million. I'm the only one that dared be so bold to predict 57 million but truthfully that's probably too optimistic. I am crossing my fingers for at least 50 million this wknd...

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Old 04-10-2014, 03:15 PM   #110
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

In general its not too accurate to compare to TDW cause of their release dates but it will easily blow past its domestic total($206M) though.

For the 2nd weekend it might be somewhere around $43-47M.

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Old 04-10-2014, 03:21 PM   #111
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

$4.8 mil Wednesday per BOM.

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Old 04-10-2014, 03:50 PM   #112
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

TDWs #s November 11-17
Mon: $10,417,194 (Veteran's Day)
Tues: $5,244,111
Wed: $3,565,731 (-32%)
Thur: $3,546,237 (-.05%)
Friday: $10,524,470 (196.8% / -67%)
Sat: $16,761,427 (59.3% / -47.7%)
Sun: $9,300,119 (-44.5% / -57.3%)


[Friday drop from opening w/e is high because of Thursday Previews which were $7m and Sunday drop is higher since Veteran's day softened the Sun drop opening w/e]

2nd w/e: $36,586,016 -57.3% drop


TWS #s April 8-

Mon: $6,219,552
Tues: $6,977,056
Wed: $4,805,702 (-31.1%)


So disregarding the Veteran's Day TWS is currently pacing 35% higher weekdays than than TDW. If it kept at the same pace it would make $49m. But are weekdays inflated by there being Spring Break in some areas?

TDW faced off in it's second w/e against Best Man's Holiday which opened to $30m. TWS is looking at the child skewing Rio 2 which is estimated for a $40-45m w/e which might eat into TWS's family audience share - that is if the family share (23% from the first w/e) consists of younger children.

In it's third w/e though TDW faced behemoth Catching Fire ($158m) and Frozen for it's 4th but it also had Thanksgiving Holidays.

TWS in it's 3rd will face Transcendence (tracking around $25m) and it's Easter and there's Spring Break (which varies greatly) and then in it's 4th Spiderman.


Last edited by TalismanRing; 04-10-2014 at 03:53 PM.
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Old 04-10-2014, 04:03 PM   #113
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

It will face off against Spiderman in it's 5th w/e.

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Old 04-10-2014, 04:06 PM   #114
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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What are the 2nd weekend projections? How does it compare to TDW at same time so far?
Anything around $44 million would make for some decent legs which is just a 54% drop.

Thor 2 and Iron Man 3 dropped 57%-58% off it's 2nd week.

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Old 04-10-2014, 04:09 PM   #115
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

I thought it would drop 23-25% but 31% isn't much more than I was predicting. I'm still feeling really good about my 45mil projection. I acknowledge that I think it could hit 48mil but I'm sticking with 45mil.

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Old 04-10-2014, 04:30 PM   #116
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

People were pointing out that it got a really good bump yesterday, so some leveling off yesterday could be expected.

It will really be interesting to see how it performs with Rio taking some/most of the family/kid demo. At least it's not getting LEGO type WOM, but LA Times does have both Cap and Rio tracking at $40+ this weekend.

I wouldn't be surprised if Cap does take the No. 1 spot again this week… but if it doesn't, that won't bother me so much.

Still going with $46.5mil. Between a 52-57% drop. I feel like that's a pretty liberal range, but this movie is really getting way better WOM than IM2 or TDW so I'm staying hopeful.

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Old 04-10-2014, 05:14 PM   #117
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

Boxoffice.com is tracking TWS at 35-40 mil weeken.

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Old 04-10-2014, 05:21 PM   #118
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

35-40m would be a rather huge drop - bigger than TDW which dropped 57% with smaller weekdays and and frankly not as good word of mouth. Rio 2 does attract families but those with younger children (not TWS's audience) and it's reviews don't seem good enough to make a big dent in the adult audience.

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Old 04-10-2014, 05:36 PM   #119
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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Boxoffice.com is tracking TWS at 35-40 mil weeken.
That doesn't sound right. Where did you get that?

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Old 04-10-2014, 05:47 PM   #120
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

That range is way too low, $40-45M seems more appropriate.

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Old 04-10-2014, 05:54 PM   #121
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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I predict a 100% drop.

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Old 04-10-2014, 05:59 PM   #122
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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That doesn't sound right. Where did you get that?
I think BO.com is basing their prediction on Deadline, who may be basing their prediction on the previous Cap movie's second week drop…

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Old 04-10-2014, 06:05 PM   #123
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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Boxoffice.com is tracking TWS at 35-40 mil weeken.
I think they are just playing it safe. I'd start at 40mil. Liam's range is better. I'd give a 41-48mil range.

I'd like to caution though that the film has shown signs of frontloading so even with good word of mouth a 55-58% drop is not out of the question. Now I'm still predicting a 52.5% drop but that's because it doesn't have any direct competition. If the film had big direct competition I'd be predicting a 58-60% drop easy.

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Old 04-10-2014, 06:07 PM   #124
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

I think they are basing it on other MCU sequel drops. TDW, IM3 and IM2 dropped above 55%. I was hoping that with the really good reviews and WOM Cap 2 would have a better second weekend.

But who knows?

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Old 04-10-2014, 06:09 PM   #125
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

Even going by those previous movies it'll still end up around $43M.

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