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Old 04-17-2014, 01:45 PM   #26
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Default Re: batman vs Superman box office prediction

Id say around 800 millions if its bad and around 1.5 billion if its good.

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Old 04-17-2014, 01:54 PM   #27
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Default Re: batman vs Superman box office prediction

I'd say $300-400 if it's bad...first weekend to full week strong, then it would drop like a stone by bad word of mouth.
If it's a bad film

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Old 04-17-2014, 01:58 PM   #28
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Default Re: batman vs Superman box office prediction

if it's bad it will make double that. The first film that has Superman and Batman in is a landmark moment,

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Old 04-17-2014, 02:12 PM   #29
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I'd say $300-400 if it's bad...first weekend to full week strong, then it would drop like a stone by bad word of mouth.
If it's a bad film
To make that little money it would have to be like Uwe Boll directed type bad. That little box office return isn't even within the realm of possibility. I'd say my optimistic prediction is more realistic than that. I think a pessimistic, but still realistic, low-end prediction is $800 million...and I consider that very pessimistic.

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Old 04-17-2014, 02:22 PM   #30
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WB tends to do day-and-date worldwide releases for their tentpole franchises -- but it's contingent on the release date for sure.

The end product will end up determining the film's prospects at the box office. If it's good and WB pushes it (we know they will), it's going to do very well whenever it's released. And as something like Gravity and The Avengers shows, stellar WOM can really help its opening weekend too.

It's too early, but here are my predictions:

Opening weekend: $120M-$150M
Domestic cume: $400M
Worldwide gross: $850M-$900M

Of course, it's subject to change when the marketing materials, first photos, and trailers come out.
I don't recall WB doing that with any of their cbm tentpoles. MOS(if memory serves) opened late summer in some good major markets.

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Old 04-17-2014, 02:34 PM   #31
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To make that little money it would have to be like Uwe Boll directed type bad. That little box office return isn't even within the realm of possibility. I'd say my optimistic prediction is more realistic than that. I think a pessimistic, but still realistic, low-end prediction is $800 million...and I consider that very pessimistic.
Maybe I should have clarified I meant up to $400 mil Domestic, not total.

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Old 04-17-2014, 02:38 PM   #32
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Old 04-17-2014, 02:53 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by mclay18 View Post
WB tends to do day-and-date worldwide releases for their tentpole franchises -- but it's contingent on the release date for sure.

The end product will end up determining the film's prospects at the box office. If it's good and WB pushes it (we know they will), it's going to do very well whenever it's released. And as something like Gravity and The Avengers shows, stellar WOM can really help its opening weekend too.

It's too early, but here are my predictions:

Opening weekend: $120M-$150M
Domestic cume: $400M
Worldwide gross: $850M-$900M

Of course, it's subject to change when the marketing materials, first photos, and trailers come out.
Your low balling for real
Superman did a o.w of 125 ,115 on paper but Walmart screening count as well you just can't take that from a movie because mos would have mad et he 125
anyway
If it wasn't for much competition the following week mos numbers would be higher
and Superman pulled in 668mil by himself with 50/50 w.o.m and you think the big 3 will only bring in a little more
seriously
I think I should change the name of this thread to "batman vs Superman billion dollar discussion"
Because the movie will not make less
And this will do a 200mil+ o.w you can bet your life on it

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Old 04-17-2014, 03:00 PM   #34
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I don't recall WB doing that with any of their cbm tentpoles. MOS(if memory serves) opened late summer in some good major markets.
They will make better decisions this go around they already have
May 6th is the 1st Friday in that month anything that opens the 1st Friday in may is a sure billion I'll prove that when TASM2 hits the billion this year then that will be 5 years in a row that a movie hits a billion on that day because Avengers2 will surely make a billion next year
That date is the real reason WB moved BVS that's why it's no clear explanation on the reason


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Old 04-17-2014, 04:56 PM   #35
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Default Re: batman vs Superman box office prediction

Little over a billion. Same range as The Dark Knight Rises.

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Old 04-17-2014, 05:57 PM   #36
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Default Re: batman vs Superman box office prediction

At least 1 billion for sure

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Old 04-17-2014, 06:32 PM   #37
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Default Re: batman vs Superman box office prediction

I don't think it will get below $1 billion. I'd say $900 million at worst.

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Old 04-17-2014, 07:00 PM   #38
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Default Re: batman vs Superman box office prediction

Realistically 180 opening weekend isn't a stretch. superhero movies have about a 2.5-3 multiplier so 450-540. Cut it down the middle and you get around 500

Based off tdkr and mos foreign will probably be around 60% of the total so that would put it around 1.25 billion

*Edit* I guess I should say this is if it doesn't open the same day as Cap 3, which would just be dumb for everyone *Edit*


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Old 04-17-2014, 07:33 PM   #39
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Default Re: batman vs Superman box office prediction

To be honest, a conservative approach to predicting the box office for BvS on opening weekend is to take the Batman and Superman Films over the past 10 years and average their opening weekend grosses. You do that and you get an opening weekend of $112 million. To be more optimistic, the effect of having batman and superman in the same film should be additive, so if you take the average OW for a Batman film over the last 10 years and add that to the average OW of a Superman film, you should get an Opening weekend of 315 million, but that might be too optimistic. If you did a root sum square of the differences in the opening weekends from the average, you would get a number more like $211 million.

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Old 04-17-2014, 08:03 PM   #40
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Default Re: batman vs Superman box office prediction

$1B is pretty much guaranteed. I'm thinking around $1.2B, especially if it ends up not opening on the same day as Captain America 3.

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Old 04-17-2014, 08:05 PM   #41
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Default Re: batman vs Superman box office prediction

Oh boy, here come the "$1bil" crowd...

I'm predicting $700-800 million. I don't think including Batman is enough to break it over a billion dollars, and that's because it's a fresh new interpretation of Batman. If you had told me that Bale would be alongside Cavill, and that Nolan would work alongside Snyder, then I think it would've been more than enough to secure the billion dollar hype train.

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Old 04-17-2014, 08:37 PM   #42
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To be honest, a conservative approach to predicting the box office for BvS on opening weekend is to take the Batman and Superman Films over the past 10 years and average their opening weekend grosses. You do that and you get an opening weekend of $112 million. To be more optimistic, the effect of having batman and superman in the same film should be additive, so if you take the average OW for a Batman film over the last 10 years and add that to the average OW of a Superman film, you should get an Opening weekend of 315 million, but that might be too optimistic. If you did a root sum square of the differences in the opening weekends from the average, you would get a number more like $211 million.
The $211 million opening weekend is right in line with my prediction on the first page. I said up to $230 million ow.

If that's the case, and we're assuming the movie gets good critical reception and good WOM, then the road to $700 million domestic is guaranteed. And internationally, these are the two most iconic heroes and will probably do $1.5 Billion international too. Yeah, I'm on the more optimistic end, but it's still quite realistic.

Critical reception will matter a bit, but ultimately it will be WoM. MoS basically split the fanbase probably roughly 50/50 (although I think those that hated MoS are actually just a vocal minority but that's a different convo so lets go with 50/50). I also think Supes just has more barriers to being accepted in pop culture than Batman, so the fact that Batman is in this movie will instantly give it more WoM than MoS had. So I'm standing by my prediction of $2.3 Billion WW.

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Old 04-17-2014, 08:39 PM   #43
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To be honest, a conservative approach to predicting the box office for BvS on opening weekend is to take the Batman and Superman Films over the past 10 years and average their opening weekend grosses. You do that and you get an opening weekend of $112 million. To be more optimistic, the effect of having batman and superman in the same film should be additive, so if you take the average OW for a Batman film over the last 10 years and add that to the average OW of a Superman film, you should get an Opening weekend of 315 million, but that might be too optimistic. If you did a root sum square of the differences in the opening weekends from the average, you would get a number more like $211 million.
Your 315 sounds about right
if batman can pull in 167 o.w and Superman can pull in 115 o.w that will be 282 you add the few who's curious that will put it in the 300's
but that's why I say it can reach a billion in 2 weeks only because a ow so big dom in one week or should be around 400-500 going in to week 2
And o.s should be the same or a bit lower o.w even if it opens to 200 million o.s plus it's dom weekone take it'll be at 700ww mil going in to week 2
I don't think people realize how big this is gonna be even if it sucks or 50/50 w.o.m it won't take away how big this movie will be


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Old 04-17-2014, 08:43 PM   #44
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Oh boy, here come the "$1bil" crowd...

I'm predicting $700-800 million. I don't think including Batman is enough to break it over a billion dollars, and that's because it's a fresh new interpretation of Batman. If you had told me that Bale would be alongside Cavill, and that Nolan would work alongside Snyder, then I think it would've been more than enough to secure the billion dollar hype train.
MOS basically made 700 million though. You think Superman Batman and WW on the big screen together for the first time is going to make at most 120 million more than MOS? Not to mention BVS will probably have much less competition, (I highly highly doubt it and Cap 3 will come out on the same weekend. Even if it does a lot of other movies are gonna stay away) Not to mention inflation, not to mention the fact that the foreign market is continuing to expand?

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Old 04-17-2014, 09:03 PM   #45
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Default Re: batman vs Superman box office prediction

Given DvD sales and a less competition than Monster U and WWZ at the same time into DM2, I think a straight MOS sequel with a more recognizable villain would do a great deal more what MOS did. Particularly in the opening weekend front.
(still curious if ASM2 is going to open higher).

A batman reboot isn't doing TDKT numbers but it is doing something. Add the two together and add in what China is all of a sudden doing and the film is surely going to do well above 700mill same mixed criticism or not, for like TF it's pretty much critic proof.

How much higher than a billion depends on the film imo.

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Old 04-17-2014, 09:09 PM   #46
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Oh boy, here come the "$1bil" crowd...

I'm predicting $700-800 million. I don't think including Batman is enough to break it over a billion dollars, and that's because it's a fresh new interpretation of Batman. If you had told me that Bale would be alongside Cavill, and that Nolan would work alongside Snyder, then I think it would've been more than enough to secure the billion dollar hype train.
Your Forgetting Wonder Woman
see that's why you have to be optimistic about this she will bring a massive ladies crowd her name alone will add another 300 mil to your prediction if you wanna be adding characters and crap and not seeing the big picture of this movie
If mos came out in may it would have earned more than most wanna admit to me mos had a horrible release date and still pulled in 668mil and a 115 on book o.w +12mil Walmart screenings but if it came out in may it's o.w could have been north of 150 it's a fact that's why everyone wants a may release these now and days or a late July competition is light around these times

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Old 04-17-2014, 09:22 PM   #47
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MOS basically made 700 million though. You think Superman Batman and WW on the big screen together for the first time is going to make at most 120 million more than MOS? Not to mention BVS will probably have much less competition, (I highly highly doubt it and Cap 3 will come out on the same weekend. Even if it does a lot of other movies are gonna stay away) Not to mention inflation, not to mention the fact that the foreign market is continuing to expand?
Not if the story is absolute horse ****, or if Gal Gadot/Ben Affleck turn out to be miscasts for the roles they were given (the potential exists, just saying). IIRC, Man of Steel didn't have much competition and still suffered from weak legs.

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Your Forgetting Wonder Woman
see that's why you have to be optimistic about this she will bring a massive ladies crowd her name alone will add another 300 mil to your prediction if you wanna be adding characters and crap and not seeing the big picture of this movie
If mos came out in may it would have earned more than most wanna admit to me mos had a horrible release date and still pulled in 668mil and a 115 on book o.w +12mil Walmart screenings but if it came out in may it's o.w could have been north of 150 it's a fact that's why everyone wants a may release these now and days or a late July competition is light around these times
You are really overrating Wonder Woman's ability to be a box office draw. Yes, people will want to see her on the screen, but a character's inclusion means nothing. Especially when we don't know what kind of interpretation we're going to get (if you want to take the extra mile, if WW is revealed to be the one who wears the bathing suit costume, I'm sure a good majority of the female demographic would be turned off).

You still have to rely on factors such as the quality of the trailer, and the narrative potential, not to mention, word of mouth. For BvS to be a $1bil blockbuster, it would have to be a fantastic movie. Look at what happened to Man of Steel after the first two weeks. If Man of Steel came out in May, it would've been even worse. It would have to face competition from Iron Man 3, which was a critical and financial success from the first week onwards.

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Old 04-17-2014, 09:43 PM   #48
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Not if the story is absolute horse ****, or if Gal Gadot/Ben Affleck turn out to be miscasts for the roles they were given (the potential exists, just saying). IIRC, Man of Steel didn't have much competition and still suffered from weak legs.



You are really overrating Wonder Woman's ability to be a box office draw. Yes, people will want to see her on the screen, but a character's inclusion means nothing. Especially when we don't know what kind of interpretation we're going to get (if you want to take the extra mile, if WW is revealed to be the one who wears the bathing suit costume, I'm sure a good majority of the female demographic would be turned off).

You still have to rely on factors such as the quality of the trailer, and the narrative potential, not to mention, word of mouth. For BvS to be a $1bil blockbuster, it would have to be a fantastic movie. Look at what happened to Man of Steel after the first two weeks. If Man of Steel came out in May, it would've been even worse. It would have to face competition from Iron Man 3, which was a critical and financial success from the first week onwards.
If mos came out in may iron man 3 would have not gotten to a billion you say mos didn't have competition when Cleary it had in its second week it faced two blockbusters and then in its 3rd week two more movies .you have to understand iron man 3 made its bill in because it had no competition name one movie other than iron man 3 that came out in may last year and made some good money or even a blockbuster release
The two movies that came out the second week of mos release combined for over a billion monster university 743mill and world war z 540mill that equals 1.2 billion all the movies that came out in may might have not combined for 2 bil so 2 movies make a billion and a month of movies makes 2 billion excluding iron man 3

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Old 04-17-2014, 09:54 PM   #49
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Default Re: batman vs Superman box office prediction

Didn't MOS have that Monsters University movie as competition?


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You are really overrating Wonder Woman's ability to be a box office draw. Yes, people will want to see her on the screen, but a character's inclusion means nothing. Especially when we don't know what kind of interpretation we're going to get (if you want to take the extra mile, if WW is revealed to be the one who wears the bathing suit costume, I'm sure a good majority of the female demographic would be turned off).
You're dead on about this though. WW won't bring in the female viewers if she's not made to appeal to female viewers.

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Old 04-17-2014, 10:02 PM   #50
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Wasn't there a couple of weeks where Man of Steel was alone? (until MU and WWZ started coming to town).
No those 2 movies released the very next weekend after mos both at the same time on the same date and the week after white house down and some other movie can't remember the title so in 1 week mos had more competition than iron man 3 had its entire run mostly

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