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Old 04-17-2014, 10:31 PM   #51
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Default Re: batman vs Superman box office prediction

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Even The Avengers didn't have as much competition as mos
Great points all around. I remember a big discussion on these forums and elsewhere was about the terrible release schedule of MoS and how WB seems to always release their tentbole blockbusters too late in the summer. That first weekend in May release date has been shown to be perfect for CBMs since the original Spiderman did it back in 2002 and busted records.

WB finally learned their lesson with BvS in 2016 but Marvel already claimed the spot, and most likely WB will be forced to move. So now the trick is to find whether they should move it up to April (Cap 2 proving releasing in early April is a viable strategy) or whether to move it back to further into the summer (maybe mid-May, but I think that date is already claimed by Fox for Age of Apocalypse).

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Old 04-17-2014, 11:24 PM   #52
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Default Re: batman vs Superman box office prediction

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How is The Heat, White House Down, Lone Ranger even considered competition? Based on their $ intake, a legitimate argument can be made that they didn't even do much damage to MOS compared to the heavy hitters like WWZ, MU, DM2.
That's not the point, during the 3rd weekend of MOS' release, after MU and WWZ, White house down and The Heat opened to a combined mid 60mill figure not to mention drawing their audience from MOS's wide demo. Add that 60mill to the the other two films and you have a combined weekend of about 140mill of competition(again drawing it's audience from your demo's). And those are just the films opening after it and above it, a good heap of summer ilk still lingering in theaters at the same point in time. This is significant for example when you look at the figure Cap is going to be facing in it's 3rd weekend....
The landscape avengers faced, TDK(dear god) even.

The 4th weekend saw TLR and DM2 combining to another well over a 100mill weekend in new ticket share. Then after that WB's on Pacific Rim comes out and WB veto's it's own 3D screens...Safe to say it was a mess and to suggest the film faced lax competition is to not really look at what was going on. Just listing those three films alone as you did, overlooks the issue.

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Also, competition only matters to a certain extent (for instance, WB was dumb to put MOS with upcoming heavy hitting tentpoles). If the movie doesn't have the legs, then the movie has to be held accountable too. Look at The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug, it faced a lot of competition yet it went as far as to make $950mil. At some point, you have to look at the film and say "maybe, it wasn't as well-received as we thought it'd be."
Desolation of Smaug? Have you taken a good look at it's subsequent competition? Firstly it had to wait like 4 weeks before a film opened higher than it(and not by much), then it headed into 'January' to face down the stiff competition said month is known for not having.... All beside the greater point; like the star wars prequels, the hobbit films come with an installed base, especially internationally. What's more, this one was a sequel. Both elements MOS didn't have in the box office insurance game.
Also, 3D screens aren't easy to come by, not in the summer anyways when every new release is demanding them. I still can't believe WWZ was in 3D.

Lastly, all that being that, MOS still got it Domestically somehow. I'm not so sure the Hobbit with it's 'great legs' over took thor. I don't think the competition thing should be overlooked is all. A better date for MOS and it would have done very differently imo, especially that second weekend.

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Old 04-17-2014, 11:39 PM   #53
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Default Re: batman vs Superman box office prediction

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That's not the point, during the 3rd weekend of MOS' release, after MU and WWZ, White house down and The Heat opened to a combined mid 60mill figure not to mention drawing their audience from MOS's wide demo. Add that 60mill to the the other two films and you have a combined weekend of about 140mill of competition(again drawing it's audience from your demo's). And those are just the films opening after it and above it, a good heap of summer ilk still lingering in theaters at the same point in time. This is significant for example when you look at the figure Cap is going to be facing in it's 3rd weekend....
The landscape avengers faced, TDK(dear god) even.

The 4th weekend saw TLR and DM2 combining to another well over a 100mill weekend in new ticket share. Then after that WB's on Pacific Rim comes out and WB veto's it's own 3D screens...Safe to say it was a mess and to suggest the film faced lax competition is to not really look at what was going on. Just listing those three films alone as you did, overlooks the issue.


Desolation of Smaug? Have you taken a good look at it's subsequent competition? Firstly it had to wait like 4 weeks before a film opened higher than it(and not by much), then it headed into 'January' to face down the stiff competition said month is known for not having.... All beside the greater point; like the star wars prequels, the hobbit films come with an installed base, especially internationally. What's more, this one was a sequel. Both elements MOS didn't have in the box office insurance game.
Also, 3D screens aren't easy to come by, not in the summer anyways when every new release is demanding them. I still can't believe WWZ was in 3D.

Lastly, all that being that, MOS still got it Domestically somehow. I'm not so sure the Hobbit with it's 'great legs' over took thor. I don't think the competition thing should be overlooked is all. A better date for MOS and it would have done very differently imo, especially that second weekend.
Or if mos moved up a week it would have done 370-400 mil dom easily
I don't know why wb didn't move it to the 7th of June instead or the 1st the numbers would have been very different

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Old 04-17-2014, 11:51 PM   #54
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Default Re: batman vs Superman box office prediction

I don't think a simple week of free reign would have given it 400mill.
I do think a better spot(such as the other films I listed) would have given it over 300mill easy though. Throw in a Batman stinger prior to the credits and you're looking at easy money.

The pacific rim date would have been ideal given the circumstances. Those July films last year all under performed if memory served.

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Old 04-18-2014, 12:02 AM   #55
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Default Re: batman vs Superman box office prediction

at least $800 million and that's me being pessimistic.

even IF it's bad it can still make over a Billion (just look at Transformers, Iron Man 3) so I think it can make between $1.2 - 1.5 Billion total.

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Old 04-18-2014, 12:08 AM   #56
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i doubt WB will move again especially with the PR headache they would get. People this days complain over the most simplistic things. But am also of the view that they should stick to their guns. No movie studio should own calender dates and i doubt cap 3 would be beating bvs especialy when the later has novelty factor and two of the greatest heroes at its disposal. And please dont give me that marvel can take a hit nonsense. That does not apply when 200 mill+ investments are at stake.

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Old 04-18-2014, 12:12 AM   #57
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Default Re: batman vs Superman box office prediction

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Even then, it had the benefit of building upon Phase I's solid foundation, you can't ignore that effect.



How is The Heat, White House Down, Lone Ranger even considered competition? Based on their $ intake, a legitimate argument can be made that they didn't even do much damage to MOS compared to the heavy hitters like WWZ, MU, DM2.

Also, competition only matters to a certain extent (for instance, WB was dumb to put MOS with upcoming heavy hitting tentpoles). If the movie doesn't have the legs, then the movie has to be held accountable too. Look at The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug, it faced a lot of competition yet it went as far as to make $950mil. At some point, you have to look at the film and say "maybe, it wasn't as well-received as we thought it'd be."



Learn to argue effectively instead of grasping at straws. Where have I said that Thor the Dark World is successful? Better yet, who even brought up Thor the Dark World...?

If you're going to resort to ad hominem and label me of being a Marvel fanboy, at least look at my post history before posting. I've lambasted TTDW for being such a godawful film. Not to mention, I've posted more on DC forums than Marvel, and I'd say I have more of a preference for DC characters. Lastly, I loved Man of Steel, but even I can recognize that it didn't resonate positively to everyone.
Sorry but I don't think you even believe what you are trying to say. How are three 200 million dollar movie competition? What do you mean how? They combined for almost 700 million. No **** they didn't do as much damage as WWZ, MU, and DM2. I never said they did. The movies I listed combined for 3 billion dollars at the box office and came out 3 weeks or less after MOS. Hence proving Man of Steel had heavy competition. Saying otherwise is complete bogus

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Old 04-18-2014, 06:47 AM   #58
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Default Re: batman vs Superman box office prediction

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I don't think a simple week of free reign would have given it 400mill.
I do think a better spot(such as the other films I listed) would have given it over 300mill easy though. Throw in a Batman stinger prior to the credits and you're looking at easy money.

The pacific rim date would have been ideal given the circumstances. Those July films last year all under performed if memory served.
If mos moved up a week it would have gotten 2 weeks of free reign not just a week

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Old 04-19-2014, 12:35 PM   #59
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Your 315 sounds about right
if batman can pull in 167 o.w and Superman can pull in 115 o.w that will be 282 you add the few who's curious that will put it in the 300's
but that's why I say it can reach a billion in 2 weeks only because a ow so big dom in one week or should be around 400-500 going in to week 2
And o.s should be the same or a bit lower o.w even if it opens to 200 million o.s plus it's dom weekone take it'll be at 700ww mil going in to week 2
I don't think people realize how big this is gonna be even if it sucks or 50/50 w.o.m it won't take away how big this movie will be
I don't think you realise how far removed from reality you are with these predictions. You can't just add together opening weekend scores from different films, with completely different contexts and pull out an accurate prediction for a third film. It doesn't work like that. Only one film ever, according to Box Office Mojo, has broken the 200 million barrier (Avengers) and that was only barely. Do you really think BvS can clear that by over 100 million?

Genuine question, do you think Avengers: Age of Ultron will make 400 million in its opening weekend? That's roughly the opening weekends of Iron Man, Cap, Thor and Hulk.

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Old 04-19-2014, 02:15 PM   #60
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Default Re: batman vs Superman box office prediction

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So Thor2 can be success making 648mil and mos can make 668mil and not be a success
He's been officially deemed a Marvel fan lol
MOS made 687 mil.

You can check over at numbers.com

http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Man-of-Steel

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Old 04-19-2014, 03:20 PM   #61
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I don't think you realise how far removed from reality you are with these predictions. You can't just add together opening weekend scores from different films, with completely different contexts and pull out an accurate prediction for a third film. It doesn't work like that. Only one film ever, according to Box Office Mojo, has broken the 200 million barrier (Avengers) and that was only barely. Do you really think BvS can clear that by over 100 million?

Genuine question, do you think Avengers: Age of Ultron will make 400 million in its opening weekend? That's roughly the opening weekends of Iron Man, Cap, Thor and Hulk.
I'm just making an example you can't think this movie will open less than 200 mil it's just straight bias
and age of ultron certainly have the fan base to do so
if the first film opened to 207 what and was well received and when on to make 1.6bill ww what makes you think the sequel will open less than 270 aou opening w.e will be insane
People have to understand records are made to be shattered who would have thought that a movie can open to such a big number the market is expanding by the time BVS comes out the market will be far more than what it is now especially since the o.s markets are growing as long as that is happening no number is Un heard of
And you do realize aou have a shot at 2 bil+ do you


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Old 04-19-2014, 03:30 PM   #62
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Default Re: batman vs Superman box office prediction

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MOS made 687 mil.

You can check over at numbers.com

http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Man-of-Steel
Box Office mojo is wrong?

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Old 04-19-2014, 07:47 PM   #63
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Box Office mojo is wrong?
They reported thst Rio 2 would beat out Captain America: The Winter Soldier last week.

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Old 04-19-2014, 08:08 PM   #64
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Your Forgetting Wonder Woman
see that's why you have to be optimistic about this she will bring a massive ladies crowd her name alone will add another 300 mil to your prediction if you wanna be adding characters and crap and not seeing the big picture of this movie
If mos came out in may it would have earned more than most wanna admit to me mos had a horrible release date and still pulled in 668mil and a 115 on book o.w +12mil Walmart screenings but if it came out in may it's o.w could have been north of 150 it's a fact that's why everyone wants a may release these now and days or a late July competition is light around these times
I'm not sure if Wonder Woman will be bringing in a massive crowd of women. Most Wonder Woman fans are males (according to Brent Schenker, a little over 56% out of about 1.3 million fans world wide). They probably would only bring about $9 million to the table if they came to see the film once.

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Old 04-19-2014, 08:16 PM   #65
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$100 million dollars.

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Old 04-19-2014, 08:33 PM   #66
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I'm a marvel fanboy, so it's pointless to call me a marvel fanboy after I state my opinion guys. FYI.

I think this movie will make a at least 700 guaranteed. Thats with bad reviews, bad word of mouth, and no 3d. The only issue I see with it not making a billion is the directing. I know alot of folks hate marvel for their whimsical style of movie making, but I just think that a BVS movie has to be a little more fun than a MOS or TDK movie. If this movie takes itself too seriously it won't fail but it definitely wont get close to Avengers numbers.

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Old 04-19-2014, 08:44 PM   #67
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Still two years away from release and we need a prediction thread on how much money it will make?.
My reaction when I saw this thread just now ,
"Your kidding, right?"

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Old 04-19-2014, 09:06 PM   #68
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I'm a marvel fanboy, so it's pointless to call me a marvel fanboy after I state my opinion guys. FYI.

I think this movie will make a at least 700 guaranteed. Thats with bad reviews, bad word of mouth, and no 3d. The only issue I see with it not making a billion is the directing. I know alot of folks hate marvel for their whimsical style of movie making, but I just think that a BVS movie has to be a little more fun than a MOS or TDK movie. If this movie takes itself too seriously it won't fail but it definitely wont get close to Avengers numbers.
A movie doesn't need to be fun to be successful. In fact, I'd argue that fun is arbitrary compared to the more significant factors such as plot, direction, script, acting, effects, etc.

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Old 04-19-2014, 10:08 PM   #69
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900 million. I believe both this and Cap 3 will stay, so that will definitely cut into the bo, although not as much as people would have you believe. Also think a small contingent are going to be discouraged to see this after TDKR and MOS.

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Old 04-19-2014, 10:25 PM   #70
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Default Re: batman vs Superman box office prediction

It needs to be marketed in the right way and if so I think it will do over a billion, of course only if the release date clash is avoided.

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Old 04-19-2014, 10:28 PM   #71
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900 million. I believe both this and Cap 3 will stay, so that will definitely cut into the bo, although not as much as people would have you believe. Also think a small contingent are going to be discouraged to see this after TDKR and MOS.
What, 2 people?

I think WB will be fine without those 14 dollars.

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Old 04-19-2014, 10:40 PM   #72
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What, 2 people?

I think WB will be fine without those 14 dollars.
Yeah, your right only two people were turned off by both or one of those films..

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Old 04-19-2014, 10:58 PM   #73
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900 million. I believe both this and Cap 3 will stay, so that will definitely cut into the bo, although not as much as people would have you believe. Also think a small contingent are going to be discouraged to see this after TDKR and MOS.
I can understand MOS since this is a sequel, but why would people care about TDKR? I mean, this is a new Batman after all.

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Old 04-19-2014, 11:15 PM   #74
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I can understand MOS since this is a sequel, but why would people care about TDKR? I mean, this is a new Batman after all.
That's also written by David Goyer and they're both are going to be based off the cynical take from Miller's Dark Knight Return. TDKR's portrayal of Bruce Wayne made me completely dislike the character. I personally wouldn't see a Goyer Batman solo reboot unless it got great reviews and deviated from the last version.

I recognized that it's a small contingent, but that contingent is just as pissed as those who took exception to Supes in Man of Steel. Cap staying put, which I'm leaning towards believing both will, will put the biggest dent though. The mixed reactions to MOS and the previous takes on the characters would be almost minuscule in comparison.

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Old 04-19-2014, 11:20 PM   #75
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That's also written by David Goyer and they're both are going to be based off the cynical take from Miller's Dark Knight Return. TDKR's portrayal of Bruce Wayne made me completely dislike the character. I personally wouldn't see a Goyer Batman solo reboot unless it got great reviews and deviated from the last version.

I recognized that it's a small contingent, but that contingent is just as pissed as those who took exception to Supes in Man of Steel. Cap staying put, which I'm leaning towards believing both will, will put the biggest dent though. The mixed reactions to MOS and the previous takes on the characters would be almost minuscule in comparison.
I don't think the main audience know Goyer is involved. I don't think they even know who Goyer is. And the limited negativity over TDKR still doesn't quite counter the massive lingering positivity from TDK.

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