🇷🇺🇺🇦 Discussion: Relations with Russia and the war in Ukraine

[MagnarTheGreat]

 

[:eek:]

Putin's Health Questioned After Video of Him Gripping Table Circulates (newsweek.com)

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

 

[:eek:]

Every Russian Oligarch Who Has Died Since Putin Invaded Ukraine—Full List (newsweek.com)

 

[InCali]

They say a leopard can't change its spots. This is a person who is so limited because of his arrogance that he's unable to assess and change his perspective.

He grew up as a transactional and manipulative person and will die one without ever growing. A role model for how not to live your life.

 

[Iceman]

Ukraine war: How Russia replaces Ukrainian media with its own
Just the Russian way that they’ve used to significantly influence politics all over the world

 

[C. Lee]

Ukraine kills two more Russian generals.
Ukraine Army destroys enemy command operations center, eliminates two Russian generals

 

[:eek:]

War with Russia — Russian textbook publishers required to remove mentions of Kyiv and Ukraine (babel.ua)

 

[Iceman]

Russia has lost 873 tanks, 179 aircraft and 21,800 troops in Ukraine

 

[Iceman]

Putin's Health Questioned After Video of Him Gripping Table Circulates (newsweek.com)

If true, I’m struggling to muster up any sympathy.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

2017 Round 1
Macron 24%
Le Pen 21%
Mélenchon 20%

2017 Round 2 (run-off between top 2)
Macron 66%
Le Pen 34%

2022 Round 1
Macron 28% (Macron +4 points since 2017)
Le Pen 23% (Le Pen +2 points since 2017)
Mélenchon 22% (Mélenchon +2 points since 2017)

2022 Round 2 (run-off between top 2)
Macron TBD
Le Pen TBD

The good news is Macron can lose a lot of voters from 2017 and still win since he came in with a big cushion. (Biden doesn't have this luxury in 2024 since he won 51% not 66% in a run-off.)

CNN - Emmanuel Macron projected to win French presidential election: Live updates

Large drop in turnout / absentia from 2017 and every presidential election since the 1960s.

 

[InCali]

I want to preface this post with the acknowledgement that I am much less familiar with French politics than I probably should be, but, while I'm glad Macron won, this election seems to indicate there is widespread dissatisfaction with him in France. The drop in turnout is an indication of that as is the fact that his lead shrunk from the last time. I hope that shrinkage is due to dissatisfaction with Macron rather than a growing authoritarian movement on the right.

I "think" this is similar to the situation in the US. I believe there was always a 30-40 percent (maybe more) of people in this country who would want someone in power as long as they shared their ideology and democracy be damned. While those people exist both on the left and right side of the political spectrum, that trait is much more predominate on the right.

Comments from those who are more familiar with the political climate there would be appreciated.

 

[squeekness]

I want to preface this post with the acknowledgement that I am much less familiar with French politics than I probably should be, but, while I'm glad Macron won, this election seems to indicate there is widespread dissatisfaction with him in France. The drop in turnout is an indication of that as is the fact that his lead shrunk from the last time. I hope that shrinkage is due to dissatisfaction with Macron rather than a growing authoritarian movement on the right.

I "think" this is similar to the situation in the US. I believe there was always a 30-40 percent (maybe more) of people in this country who would want someone in power as long as they shared their ideology and democracy be damned. While those people exist both on the left and right side of the political spectrum, that trait is much more predominate on the right.

Comments from those who are more familiar with the political climate there would be appreciated.

I think you're right, especially as it pertains to the U.S. Sad but true. I fear for the future of my country.

 

[InCali]

So......I wasn't really buying "the percentage of victory shrunk so much" in the French elections so I did some calcs to try and take a first stab on the "increase" of Le Pen's popularity and here's one way of looking at it.

In 2017, the voter turnout was 74.6% and Le Pen got about 33% of the vote. In 2022, the turnout (from what I read) was down to 63.2% and she got about 42% of the vote. While her "absolute" percentage went up, a weighted analysis shows that her increase only went up about 2%. If I were going to make a hypothesis, I would say that Le Pen's supporters were far more likely to vote in a lower turnout era than were the incumbent Macron's and that this narrowing of victory was due more to dissatisfaction with Macron than an increase of support for Le Pen. While I am an optimist without hope of a cure, I think this could actually be a positive for a more progressive candidate in 2027 if the politics were handled correctly. Here are the "weighted" percentages; which essentially measures overall percentage of support within the entire population.

(Percentage of turnout by percentage of vote)

Le Pen

2017 - 74.6 of 33% = 24.618
2022 - 63.2 of 42% = 26.544

Macron

2017 - 74.6 of 66% = 49.236
2022 - 63.2 of 58% = 36.656

So, what this shows is that it wasn't so much that Le Pen's popularity rose (although one would expect it to decline in this climate), but that most of the closing of the gap was due more to the declining popularity of Macron.

There are other explanations, but this seems like the most likely scenario.

 

[Holy Slapper]

Our prime minister, who with almost all likelyhood will take us to NATO, flexing her muscle:

Text translated:

"With the family at a playpark. Should've filmed the first 5, they went easier."

 

[InCali]

Our prime minister, who with almost all likelyhood will take us to NATO, flexing her muscle:

Text translated:

"With the family at a playpark. Should've filmed the first 5, they went easier."

Yeah. But we had Trump!

 

[Iceman]

Thank **** Le Pen didn’t win.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

 

[Iceman]

Just wondering what happens if Putin’s health issues are genuine and serious and if he somehow dies anytime soon while the war is still on. Any chance of it meaning the war stops or is the next person likely to continue in his footsteps?

 

[Sithborg]

Just wondering what happens if Putin’s health issues are genuine and serious and if he somehow dies anytime soon while the war is still on. Any chance of it meaning the war stops or is the next person likely to continue in his footsteps?

I mean, the war will probably stall for a while, because when an authoritarian goes, figuring out who the next guy is tends to be... messy.

 

[Fosterson]

Just wondering what happens if Putin’s health issues are genuine and serious and if he somehow dies anytime soon while the war is still on. Any chance of it meaning the war stops or is the next person likely to continue in his footsteps?

Not likely. Putin is surrounded by a bunch of hardliners whose views on Ukraine are just as extreme as his own.

Take Medvedev, for example, who recently claimed that Ukraine has been "mentally transformed into the Third Reich" and "will suffer the same fate":

Is Russia committing genocide in Ukraine?

And remember that Medvedev was once viewed as a liberal "reformer" by the Obama admin.

 

[Holy Slapper]

Not likely. Putin is surrounded by a bunch of hardliners whose views on Ukraine are just as extreme as his own.

Take Medvedev, for example, who recently claimed that Ukraine has been "mentally transformed into the Third Reich" and "will suffer the same fate":

Is Russia committing genocide in Ukraine?

And remember that Medvedev was once viewed as a liberal "reformer" by the Obama admin.

To be fair, they weren't the only ones.

 

[Iceman]

Not likely. Putin is surrounded by a bunch of hardliners whose views on Ukraine are just as extreme as his own.

Take Medvedev, for example, who recently claimed that Ukraine has been "mentally transformed into the Third Reich" and "will suffer the same fate":

Is Russia committing genocide in Ukraine?

And remember that Medvedev was once viewed as a liberal "reformer" by the Obama admin.

Oh right, well that seriously sucks.

 

[:eek:]

The scary thing is that it's probably more likely that USA and countries in Europe becomes more like Russia than Russia embracing democratic values again. Le Pen might have lost the recent French election but the fact is that those right-wingers made their best election ever there and the country is just as divided as USA

 

[Iceman]

The scary thing is that it's probably more likely that USA and countries in Europe becomes more like Russia than Russia embracing democratic values again. Le Pen might have lost the recent French election but the fact is that those right-wingers made their best election ever there and the country is just as divided as USA

Much of Eastern Europe has been that way inclined but in this era of disinformation the US, UK and France are all divided. Scary times ahead as Russian agents and bots will continue to try and influence Western politics after all their successes to date. Trump could be back in power after the next election and Putin knows he will be able to fix many elements of his situation if he can help make that happen. My only hope is that the younger generation are less susceptible to all this and shifting demographics will help dilute the effect of the far right over time (unless they actually get into power and change things to their advantage long term).