2008 Box Office Predictions & Discussions thread

[Excel]

heres the schedule for summer, and the noteable sprikg releases. Winter 2008 is going t o be huge too.

1/18 - CLOVERFIELD

2/8 - FOOLS GOLD

2/29 - SEMI PRO

3/7 - 10,OO B.C.

3/14 - HORTON HEARS A WHO

3/28 - WANTED


SUMMER

5/2 - IRON MAN

5/9 - SPEED RACER

5/16 - NARNIA 2

5/22 (Thursday) - INDIANA JONES 4

6/13 - THE INCREDIBLE HULK
- THE HAPPENING

6/20 - GET SMART

6/27 - WALL-E
-VALKERYIE

7/2 - JOHN HANCOCK

7/11 - TROPIC THUNDER
- HELLBOY 2

7/18 - THE DARK KNIGHT
- MAMA MIA!

7/25 - STEP BROTHERS

8/1 - THE MUMMY 3

FALL is virtually empty; schedules yet to be filled....

WINTER

11/7 - BOND 22
- MADAGASCAR 2

11/13 - THE WOLFMAN

11/20 - HARRY POTTER

12/19 - ANGELS AND DEMONS

12/25 - BEDTIME STORIES

 

[Excel]

Early predictions...top 15...not too huge after this year with 5 300 million dollar hits.

1. Indiana Jones - 325 million
2. Harry Potter-315 million
3. The Dark Knight - 290 million
4. Narnia - 265 million
5. Wall-e - 250 million
6. Bedtime Stories- 240 million
7. Madagascar 2- 225 million
8. Angels and Demons - 210 million
9. Bond 22- 200 million
10. Iron Man - 180 million
11. Horton Hears A who - 155 million
12. John Hancock- 155 million
13. Get Smart: 145
14. The Incredible Hulk - 140 million
15. Speed Racer: 135 million


Top 15 opening weekends...no real records going down...

1. Harry Potter - 115 million
2. The Dark Knight - 105 million
3. Indiana Jones- 100 million (opens on a Thursday), 135 4 day, 160 5 day
4. Narnia - 85 million
5. Wall-e - 65
7. Iron Man- 60 million
8. Bond 22- 55 million
9. Mummy 3: 52 million
10. Madagascar 2- 50 million
11. The Incredible Hulk - 48 million
12. Bedtime Stories - 47 million
13. Get Smart - 45 million
14. Angels and Demons - 45 million
15. Speed Racer: 45 millon

 

[Cinemaman]

Isn't it too early for next summer?

 

[Excel]

http://forums.superherohype.com/showthread.php?t=240564

 

[Galactus]

I predict Australia to be the biggest movie next year...


... in Australia

 

[Spider-Vader]

Domestic
1. Indiana Jones IV
2. Harry Potter & The Half-Blood Prince
3. The Dark Knight
4. James Bond 22
5. Narnia 2
6. Iron Man
7. Wall-E
8. Spped Racer
9. The Mummy 3
10. Madagascar 2

World-Wide
1. Harry Potter & The Half-Blood Prince
2. Indiana Jones IV
3. Narnia 2
4. The Dark Knight
5. Iron Man
6. Wall-E
7. James Bond 22
8. Madagascar 2
9. The Mummy 3
10. Speed Racer

 

[lollycop]

I would have to say IJ 4 and Harry Potter will be the in the top.

 

[Tempest19]

I actually agree with Excel.

 

[BAH HUMBBUG!]

How is the overall box office looking this year compared to last?

 

[Poetic Chaos]

Next year Harry Potter surpasses Bond as the highest grossing franchise of all time. Looking forward to it.

 

[Tempest19]

Doesn't deserve it. Nothing against Potter- but, come on- in comparison to Bond it's a "recent fad"... oh, wait- add inflation!

So, going by 'cheating' Potter will go up... but, going by TRUTH and FACT of INFLATION- Potter still has a long way to go before he catches up with this age old film franchise that's existed for 45 years.

 

[Poetic Chaos]

a recent fad starting in 1997?

 

[Tempest19]

lets see where potter is in 2042, shall we? Also note "in COMPARISON to Bond it's a 'recent fad'"

But, you probably didn't read that part.... I never said it was recent, I said in COMPARISON to Bond it is only a "recent fad" which even the most stark raving mad HP fans would acknowledge... let's see 45 > 11.

And that's only CURRENT- HP will be remembered as a great film franchise, when Bond is still making films. That's not a bad thing or a put down either, that's just saying HP will never truly reach Bond level. Consider how long Bond has survived. He's not Americana, hell he isn't even American, but he is a key mythological worldwide film character who has spanned MANY years and MANY MANY more years to come.

He's Hercules, Tarzan, Sinbad, etc. or any other mythological hero you can name of TODAY. He has gone through just as many incarnations, takes, and stories. I am not comparing Bond to Hercules, since Hercules has been around for many more years than Bond- even that is understatement. What I am saying, however, is that HP will be looked back as a great film and book franchise whereas Bond will most likely be considered to be one of the KEY icons that modern day and past day has handed down throughout generations.

So, as I said- add inflation, doubt Potter will ever get close to cracking Bond's ACTUAL number- add to that that Bond films will most likely continue for years to come (and I'm talking more than 20-30).

 

[Excel]

How is the overall box office looking this year compared to last?

We're in for another 2005 sized slump

nothing can match the may big 3, or transformers, or bourne or rush hour, or 300. Next winter will kill this years though.

 

[Excel]

Next year Harry Potter surpasses Bond as the highest grossing franchise of all time. Looking forward to it.

in terms of dollars yes, but not in admissions. bond has sold 10 times the number of tickets hp has.

 

[Tempest19]

Jw, what were the dollar prices back then? 2 bucks? know it wouldn't be that expensive compared to the price of tickets today.

 

[Excel]

worldwide

1. Harry Potter: 915 million ($315 U.S. + $600 Int.)
2. Indiana Jones: 725 million ($325 U.S. + $400 Int.)
3. Narnia: 675 million ($265 U.S. + $410 Int)
4. Bond: 650 million ($200 U.S. + $450 int.)
5. Wall-e: 635 million ($250 U.S. + $385 Int)
6. Angels & Demons: 610 million ($210 U.S. + $400 Int)
7. Madagascar 2: 600 ($225 U.S. + $375 Int)
8. The Dark Knight: 525 ($290 U.S. + $235 Int)

 

[Excel]

Jw, what were the dollar prices back then? 2 bucks? know it wouldn't be that expensive compared to the price of tickets today.

Goldfinger grosses 51 million in 1962, which inflates to over 450 million bucks worth of tickets today; and Thunderball inflates to over 470.

Check here for ticket prices:

http://boxofficemojo.com/about/adjuster.htm

 

[Tempest19]

Wow!!!

People got to see Dr. No for only 70 cents?! That's amazing. t:

 

[L0ngsh0t]

Harry Potter, and Indiana Jones will be no 1 and two both domestically and internationally

I think Iron Man, based off of the awesome promo, even though he is almost an unknown superhero, word of mouth, and the fact it is looking like the best first try for a comic to film adaptation I think it will make over 225 million, like 225-250...

Transformers is at 300 right now, I would say Iron Man is just as well known as TF, and TF didn't make 300 on known comonity, it made it off of its awesome trailer, and great movie, I think Iron Man could do the same

TDK will make over 250 but under 300

 

[Mr. Socko]

I agree with you all, HP and Indy will be number one and two.


I think 1-18-08 will be next year's 300. And when I say that I mean the film before the summer that kicks up with a lot of cash.

 

[Tempest19]

Transformers is at 300 right now, I would say Iron Man is just as well known as TF, and TF didn't make 300 on known comonity, it made it off of its awesome trailer, and great movie, I think Iron Man could do the same

Not true dude. Iron Man is not as well known as Transformers. Hell, I only know about Iron Man due to reading comics- but, general audience probably has no idea who he is. Transformers, on the other hand, chances are very guy either watched the cartoon or at the very least played with the toys. At McDonalds, I believe, for many years it was either Transformers, Toy Cars, or Barbies. Guys- obviously went for the Transformers and toy cars, thus it's engrained in ALOT of childhoods even if they have no idea of the comics are cartoon.

Iron Man doesn't have that. If you know the Marvel Universe, you know Iron Man. If you don't know the Marvel Universe- you don't. He's as well known as Daredevil (prior to the film), Namor, Thor, etc. These heroes need to be introduced to the public- because they don't know them. Hell, even Favreau admits this is part of the challenge, having to "educate" the general public. Comic fans- yes, they obviously are well known. General audience- "Iron who?" "The song by Ozzy?" This is in no way a put down, because I'm anxiously looking forward to the film and it looks like it's going to be the best MARVEL film to date if everything goes right.

So, while the audience knows nothing about Iron Man- chances are word of mouth will be very good and elevate to somewhere above the 200 mil range.

So, don't look for Transformers- that IS well known, whether through toys, comics, or cartoon lore... Iron Man is an exclusive to comic fans. The film is set out to "educate" general audience and for a great comic film for the fans.

Hell, I even have to explain who some of these "second run" characters are to my friends alot of the time... first run would probably be Spider-Man, The X-Men and Hulk- others need introduction. Hulk, largely due to the hit television series.

 

[L.A.]

Curious, why isnt any of the big movies of the summer coming out 4th of July??? Usually the big movie of the summer comes out that day or that weekend?

 

[Tempest19]

John Hancock seems to be the only one around that time.

 

[BAH HUMBBUG!]

We're in for another 2005 sized slump

nothing can match the may big 3, or transformers, or bourne or rush hour, or 300. Next winter will kill this years though.

Really? I thought the box office was way ahead of 2006 before Spider-Man 3 even came out?