2009 Box Office Predictions

[Excel]

Little late, and we missed a lot from a huge January, but anyways:

Here are the big release dates upcoming:

SPRING
3/6: Watchmen
3/13: Race to Witch Mountain
3/20: Duplicity
3/27: Monsters vs. Aliens
4/3: Fast and Furious

SUMMER
5/1: Wolverine, Ghosts of Girlfreinds Past
5/8: Star Trek
5/15: Angels and Demons
5/21: Terminator: Salvation
5/22: Night at the Museum 2
5/29: Up
6/5: Land of the Lost
6/12: Taking Palham 123
6/19: Year One
6/26: Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
7/1: Ice Age 3
7/10: Bruno
7/17: Harry Potter and the Half Blood prince
8/7: G.I. Joe

Fall
10/2: Shutter Island, Toy Story in 3D

Holiday
11/6: A Christmas Carol, The Wolfman
11/13: 2012
11/20: Twilght 2
12/18: Avatar
12/25: Sherlock Holmes, Nancy Meyers Comedy

Early predictions:

2012: 46/140 (this release date hur its domestic gross, but will let it do huge Overseas #'s)
A Christmas Carol: 47/165
Angels and Demons: 52/140
Avatar: 57/255 (I dont see this being that big, I see it as KING KONG 2.0.)
Bruno: 43/125
Duplicity: 28/105
Fast and Furious: 43/97
G.I. Joe: 55/150
Ghosts of Girlfreinds Past: 24/75
Harry Potter and the Half Blood prince: 115/305
Ice Age 3: 38/175
Land of the Lost: 36/105
Monsters vs. Aliens: 48/175
Nancy Meyers Comedy: 100 total
Night at the Museum 2: 39/115
Race to Witch Mountain: 37/125
Sherlock Holmes: 145 million total
Shutter Island: 24/115
Star Trek: 43/160
Taking Palham 123: 29/100
Terminator: Salvation: 105 5-day, 245 million total
Toy Story in 3D: 80 million total
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen: 145/445
Twilght 2: 170 total
Up: 48/205 total
Watchmen: 70/175
The Wolfman: 45/125
Wolverine: 80/175
Year One: 25/80

Top 10 opening weekends:
1. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen: 145 Million
2. Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince: 115 Million
3. Wolverine: 80 Million
4. Watchmen: 70 Million
5. Avatar: 57 Million
6. G.I. Joe 55 Million
7. Terminator 4: Low 50's
8. Angels and Demons: 52 million
9. UP: 48 Million
10. A Christmas Carol: 47 Million

Top 10 totals:
1. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen: 445 million
2. Harry Potter and the Half Blood prince: 305 million
3. Avatar: 255 million
4. Terminator: Salvation: 245 million
5. Watchmen ~ 175 Million
6. Monsters vs. Aliens ~ 175 Million
7. Wolverine ~ 175 Million
8. Ice Age 3 ~ 175 Million
9. Twilight: 170 Million
10. A Christmas Caro: 165 Million

 

[Matt]

Top 10 totals:
1. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen: 445 million
2. Harry Potter and the Half Blood prince: 305 million
3. Avatar: 255 million
4. Terminator: Salvation: 245 million
5. Watchmen ~ 175 Million
6. Monsters vs. Aliens ~ 175 Million
7. Wolverine ~ 175 Million
8. Ice Age 3 ~ 175 Million
9. Twilight: 170 Million
10. A Christmas Caro: 165 Million

How can a movie that came out in November 2008 be part of 2009's total box office?

 

[bunk]

Very thorough, nice work. I didn't even realize they pushed 2012 back.

 

[Excel]

How can a movie that came out in November 2008 be part of 2009's total box office?

Twilight 2 opens next November

 

[Spider-Vader]

My list:
1. Transformers: Rise of the Fallen
2. Harry Potter & The Half-Blood Prince
3. Terminator: Salvation
4. Wolverine
5. Up
6. Watchmen
7. Monsters vs Aliens
9. New Moon (Twilight 2... It pains me to put it on the list)
10. Ice Age 3

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I think that, sadly, Transformers 2 will win domestically and, sadly, Harry Potter 5000 will easily win overseas.

It's impossible to predict James Camerons new movie right now.

To get more detailed:

I could see Transformers making over 400mil but I'm predicting it not too. Obviously it's opening weekend will be massive and it has a great chance but I don't feel comfortable predicting that right now. I'm thinking 375mil right now.

I think another Harry Potter movie will finally eek out a 300mil after none besides the 1st one doing it. I can't wait till this series is over.

I'd be shocked if Angels and Demons came anywhere near DVC's numbers, I'd also be shocked if Bruno's numbers came anywhere near Borats.

I think that s**tty looking GI Joe movie could really break out. I'm only seeing it on DVD for Joseph Gordon-Levitt, quite possibly the best young actor working today.

I see that silly looking Wolverine movie opening to over 90mil, possibly 100mil and flaming out big time. Still it should be a huge hit that very few actually like.

I still see atleast a huge over 60mil opening for Watchmen but I'm not even 60percent sure it won't have terrible legs. Still my prediction of 81mil opening and 235mil close remains.

Night at the Museum seems like an end of the year franchise to me, I see another Prince Caspian.

Pixars new will be overpredicted like they have been for the last few years. People will expect 275-300mil and it will do 230mil atbest, I'm predicting 220mil.

I see over 100mil for Race to Witch Mountain, which probably means that it will make 75mil.

My predictions are always subject to change.

 

[Sawyer]

I predict that Street Fighter actually makes under $100.

 

[Episode29]

I predict that Transformers 2 will make about 500 million (worldwide) more than it deserves.

 

[CashforStash]

No love for Halloween 2?

 

[Jake Cassidy]

There's no doubt in my minds that Transformers will be the biggest.

For the people who don't like TF or Potter, or anything for that matter. You're not gonna see them, so why do you care? Just curious.

 

[Sawyer]

No love for Halloween 2?

Doubt it'll make anything over 100 million.

 

[Kane52630]

Watchmen, Transformers 2, Wolverine, and Terminator Salvation
those will be big this year

 

[Episode29]

No love for Halloween 2?

We're still getting over the forced rectal assault that was Halloween.

 

[Sawyer]

Watchmen, Transformers 2, Wolverine, and Terminator Salvation
those will be big this year

I dont know why, but I just dont think this will make too much.

 

[Episode29]

I dont know why, but I just dont think this will make too much.

I question how much of a BO splash Watchmen is gonna make... I just don't see the mainstream contingent going that crazy over it.

 

[Jake Cassidy]

I question how much of a BO splash Watchmen is gonna make... I just don't see the mainstream contingent going that crazy over it.

Agreed. I think the same thing will happen with Star Trek. I can't see anyone outside of the fanbase really caring about it that much.

 

[Galactus]

Agreed. I think the same thing will happen with Star Trek. I can't see anyone outside of the fanbase really caring about it that much.

Plus that movies released the second weekend in May usually doesn't do that well. But at least I don't think Star Trek will bomb like Speed Racer did last year...

 

[Sawyer]

I question how much of a BO splash Watchmen is gonna make... I just don't see the mainstream contingent going that crazy over it.

Seeing as how the graphic novel has been selling like crazy ever since the announcement and first trailer, I'm willing to bet you're wrong.

 

[Excel]

Plus that movies released the second weekend in May usually doesn't do that well. But at least I don't think Star Trek will bomb like Speed Racer did last year...

2nd weekend of May is usuly a deadzone, however that weekend Wolverine will be dropping 70% from a 75-90 opening weekend. Wtih good marketing and reviews, itll hopefully hit 40 million. Word of mouth will carry it to minimum a 3.5 multiplier, or 140 million total, if its as good as expected. It looks pretty sweet and marketable, so I have at 43. With great word of mouth I expect from Abrams it should hold to 28 2nd weekend and then another 23-24 over the 4 day Memorial day weekend. With weekdays its aruond 110 post memorial day, where it should see drops in the 30's and 40's for the most and hang around until it breaks 150 and 160.

 

[mclay18]

I could see Transformers making over 400mil but I'm predicting it not too. Obviously it's opening weekend will be massive and it has a great chance but I don't feel comfortable predicting that right now. I'm thinking 375mil right now.

I think another Harry Potter movie will finally eek out a 300mil after none besides the 1st one doing it. I can't wait till this series is over.

Nah, I think TF-2 will make roughly the same amount that the first film did, it depends on how the word-of-mouth is (although that doesn't mean a thing when it comes to Bay's movies). The "IMAX-shot action scenes" will be an incentive for die-hards to see it and how it will compare to Nolan's usage of it in TDK.

I do think HP6 will make over $300 million too... I think Warners was wise to push it back to this summer considering the glut of movies last fall (QoS, Twilight, Bolt). Honestly, this movie, TS and Wolverine are the only movies I'm looking forward to this summer.

 

[StorminNorman]

I think Watchmen could be a huge R rated movie early. 80/225

 

[Excel]

After this past weekends pathetic showings and what seems like a massive tv spot blitz, 80 million looking more and more real, though I doubt it has the legs to get much over 200.

And Transformers 2 is a lock for 400 million. It has a outside at the opening weekend record if it stays on a Friday.

 

[bunk]

After this past weekends pathetic showings and what seems like a massive tv spot blitz, 80 million looking more and more real, though I doubt it has the legs to get much over 200.

And Transformers 2 is a lock for 400 million. It has a outside at the opening weekend record if it stays on a Friday.

I think 445 is pushing it though.

 

[StorminNorman]

After this past weekends pathetic showings and what seems like a massive tv spot blitz, 80 million looking more and more real, though I doubt it has the legs to get much over 200.

And Transformers 2 is a lock for 400 million. It has a outside at the opening weekend record if it stays on a Friday.

This movie is receiving great reviews, so I think it has legs. The film also lends itself to double viewing - and not just by fanboys which helps.

 

[Excel]

I dont see it, too much of a fanboy driven movie.