2010 Box Office Thread

[samsnee]

So with the big hitters just around the corner, it's time to start up another box office thread.

The challenge: Guess the top 5 films and grosses for the weekend
The prize: Bragging rights

 

[matrix_ghost]

Are we talking WW or domestic grossers ?



For the WW there is one clear winner .
Harry Potter & Deathly Hallows prt 1 1.2-1.5 billion
The last potter movies have made over 900 million without the aid of 3-d so imagine the effect what 3-d will have .



Domestic :
Iron Man 2 400-450 million
Harry Potter & Deathly Hallows prt 1 400-430 million
Tron Legacy 300-400 million
Toy Story 3 300-400 million

For me it's difficult to pick out a clear winner at the dom. BO because many there are movies like Potter , Tron and Toy Story all are going to be 3-d releases. Not only that but POtter and Toy Story are both anticipated as sequel to a succesful franchise whereas Tron will most likely be this years Star Trek. The 3-d will definately have a big impact on their grosses.

 

[dark_b]

i wouldnt be suprised if Tron Legacy makes some serious money. it looks 100% cool. and it looks even more cool. on top of that it looks like they are not using gimmick 3D.

so this would be the first 3D movie where the main characters are in a virtual world. now imagine that it sucks you inside like a lucid dream. i wouldnt be suprised if people see the movie at least 2 times.

 

[Ipodman]

Harry Potter will always be big no matter what...
and I guess Twilight...

 

[VenomVsSpidey]

Iron man 2 will make bank, also harry potter 7. toy story 3 should be making alot also...

 

[Drizzle]

I don't know about how much money they'll end up making, but domestically, the top 5 films of the year will probably be (in no particular order):

Iron Man 2
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
Toy Story 3
Twilight Saga: Eclipse
Alice in Wonderland (it's already on the way to $300 million)

 

[Sentinel X]

Top 5 films of the year:

Toy Story 3
Iron man 2
Tron Legacy
Harry Potter
Alice in Wonderland (gags)

I think the first three all have legitimate shots at 400+ million. Harry Potter might get to 350 and Alice will barely top 300.

 

[matrix_ghost]

Harry Potter will always be big no matter what...
and I guess Twilight...

I know these words may haunt me back when Twilight opens but w/e
I don't think that Twilight will be bigger then the last movie.
The previous 2 movies were released in ( if i remember correctnyl) november with very little competition. This Twilight on the other hand is going to be released in the summer with some pretty big competition. It'll open after Toy Story 3 & Knight and Day ( Cruise's next movie) and before the JUly 4th weekend which has The Last Airbender coming out.

I'm sure that the fans will arrive massive just like they did with New Moon and will most likely have another gigantic opening. But if New Moon suffered a 70 % drop in November with little competition , what chance does it have in the summer WITH competition.

Not that it'll worry Summot considering just how cheap these movies cost. Hell even if Eclipse makes "just" 200 million at the BO , the guys at Summit will still be happy.














Now that i wash away the filth of Twilight and discuss more serious topics
In terms of WW BO , i think that Potter is the clear winner. There are definate exceptions like for example if movies perform far beyond expectations a la Avatar or TDK. But given the fact that
A) this is the beginning of the end
B) it's released in november with litthe competiton
C) the last 2 ( or 3..) p;otter movies have grossed more then 900 million WW with the last one even hitting the 300 million mark again.
D) the 3-d conversion
It's pretty much a given that POtter will go beyond 1 billion. How much is still difficult to say but i think 1 billion WW and 400 million dom. are confirmed.

Iron Man 2 is the big summer movie that everyone is looking forward too.
2008 had TDK , 2009 had ROTF ( until it came out and everything suddenly changed once we saw Decepticon Testicles ) and 2010 is Iron Man 2.
It basically has 2 weeks to itself before Shrek 4 opens. I never cared for Shrek really ( absolutely hate part 2 and 3) but for some reason which i'll never understand it performs incredibly well in he states.
If you look back to May 2007 you had a similar thing happened with SPider-man 3 coming out and after that Shrek 3 came out. Even with Shrek 3 ( and POTC 3 ) and "fan backlash" SPider-man 3 performed well enough.
I have a feeling that Iron Man 2 will be better then SPider-man 3 so that could mean that Iron Man 2 could break the opening day / weekend records and also gross 400 million domestic.

 

[dark_b]

i wonder if some are scared of Twilight. it will steal some tickets from other summer movies he he he

 

[matrix_ghost]

Naah. If studios aren't scared of Potter , why should they be scared of Twilight.
Besides if that was the case , you'd never have competition. Studios will always try to select dates that in their eyes are the best for the movies. The problem is that you'll have other movies competiting with your own. Even so if a movie is good enough , it should be able to stand on it's own.

 

[samsnee]

Oh wow, you guys are already guessing for the year, I was just thinking weekend to weekend. I definitely seeing Wonderland staying on top for another weekend. The question is, how big will Clash of the Titans be? It's a holiday weekend, and seeing how Alice made huge money thanks to 3-d, will Titans do the same?

 

[:eek:]

The Weekend Warrior's Summer Top 10 Predictions

Note: These numbers may change by the time the movies open and we do our weekly column, only because we're likely to have more factors to work with by then, but here's our rough predictions at this time.


1. Iron Man 2 (Marvel/Paramount – May 7)
Opening Weekend: $162 million
Predicted Gross: $440 million

2. Toy Story 3 (Disney/Pixar - June 18)
Opening Weekend: $119 million
Predicted Gross: $388 million

3. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse (Summit - June 30)
Opening Weekend: $81 million (plus $100 million on Wednesday and Thursday)
Predicted Gross: $312 million

4. Shrek Forever After (DreamWorks/Paramount - May 21)
Opening Weekend: $87 million
Predicted Gross: $290 million

5. Inception (Warner Bros. - July 16)
Opening Weekend: $63 million
Predicted Gross: $220 million

6. Sex and the City 2 (New Line/WB - May 27)
Opening Weekend: $76 million (4-day with an additional $35 million on Thursday)
Predicted Gross: $190 million

7. The Karate Kid (Sony - June 11)
Opening Weekend: $38 million
Predicted Gross: $180 million

8. The Sorcerer's Apprentice (Disney - July 16)
Opening Weekend: $45 million
Predicted Gross: $170 million

9. Predators (20th Century Fox - July 7)
Opening Weekend: $52 million
Predicted Gross: $160 million

10. The Last Airbender (Paramount - July 2)
Opening Weekend: $48 million
Predicted Gross: $155 million

Bubbling just underneath the Top 10 should be Ridley Scott's Robin Hood (Universal – May 14) with roughly $145 million followed by the Adam Sandler Grown Ups (Sony - June 25) and Jerry Bruckheimer's Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time (Disney - May 28), both in the $125 and 140 million range. Of course, the above may not account for those surprise breakout hits that no one can see coming, though we have a hunch that The Karate Kid and The Sorcerer's Apprentice are two that could very well fall into that category.