2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 2

[rayc1971]

I wouldn't be surprised if TASM only makes around $170 million. I think it will crawl to $200-$210 million like Superman Returns and Batman Begins did, but there is absolutely no hype or buzz on that movie other than with (some) fans and children. Unless the movie is gangbusters, I just think it is going to really underperform for what its brand was just five years ago. Honestly, if it wasn't an origin film and was instead kind of Spider-Man 4 with a whole new cast and tone (without 4 in the title), it probably would be doing much better.

agreed! there is no hype or buzz for this movie maybe its a good movie and it will have strong word of mouth after it comes out.

 

[Ultimatehero]

Also as per TASM. Yeah, the audience is on edge. I call it the 'Batman & Robin' effect. Because critics loved Batman Begins, everyone who saw it liked it for the most part, yet still people went "I dunno, the other ones were good but that last one? Yikes!" So even if TASM is good, it's gonna be a struggle for sure. I expect 'Batman Begins' type performance. It has a harder task than most - earning people's trust back. Even exploding the marketing won't do it a world of good, so SONY is just going to market it like the other Spidey films probably (a month or a little more prior to release).

 

[Tobias]

Also as per TASM. Yeah, the audience is on edge. I call it the 'Batman & Robin' effect. Because critics loved Batman Begins, everyone who saw it liked it for the most part, yet still people went "I dunno, the other ones were good but that last one? Yikes!" So even if TASM is good, it's gonna be a struggle for sure. I expect 'Batman Begins' type performance. It has a harder task than most - earning people's trust back. Even exploding the marketing won't do it a world of good, so SONY is just going to market it like the other Spidey films probably (a month or a little more prior to release).

Yeah, but Spidey 3 was no Batman and Robin.

I think Garfield is a much more believable actor in the role than was McGuire.

It has a difficult taask but I think it will do much better than 200 milllion. And Garfield will go on to excel in the role.

 

[Ultimatehero]

I don't know how SM3 & B&R are that different. General audience really didn't like either all that much. Most of SM3's box office is due to SM2, after that? It dropped really heavily. Plus films that made less at box office, Pirates, turned around and made more than it on DVD. To fans, yeah SM3 is better. But, to non-fans? They're really not the main B&R haters. It's a fan thing. Thus, I see it as more equal-grounds. Also there was a longer time span between the two to forget B&R.

Same could be said for Bale.

I mean, don't get me wrong - I'm a Spidey fan first and foremost. But I'm not getting my hopes up that it'll do that good since I've seen what happened to 'Batman Begins' and really can't distinguish between what 'The Amazing Spider-Man' is going to do for Spider-Man from what 'Batman Begins' did for Batman. And yep, I am saying - placing my money on it - this new franchise is going to make the old one a memory.

 

[Ultimatehero]

Also to further this - look at what happened to X-Men:First Class. Very well critically acclaimed and I have yet to hear one bad word about it from general audience members YET it brought in the least money of all X-Men films and X-Men 3 performed very similarly to Spider-Man 3. Most of it's money coming in that first week due to X2. And then First Class got even lower - due to Wolverine most likely.

http://boxofficemojo.com/franchises/chart/?id=xmen.htm

Having a bad superhero film in a franchise, despite a somewhat reboot? It didn't work in Batman's favor. It didn't work in X-Men's favor. I'm just not getting my hopes up for Spider-Man because I have no idea how it'll be that different. You're saying the film will rock, that's for granted - I agree. But so did First Class and Begins, that didn't help - audience was still wary. For these films? As First Class 2 will show. You earn back the trust - then the second go around you can earn gold. Look for MOS to show similarly most likely. This happens time and time again. And I doubt there'll be an exception.

 

[DACrowe]

Also as per TASM. Yeah, the audience is on edge. I call it the 'Batman & Robin' effect. Because critics loved Batman Begins, everyone who saw it liked it for the most part, yet still people went "I dunno, the other ones were good but that last one? Yikes!" So even if TASM is good, it's gonna be a struggle for sure. I expect 'Batman Begins' type performance. It has a harder task than most - earning people's trust back. Even exploding the marketing won't do it a world of good, so SONY is just going to market it like the other Spidey films probably (a month or a little more prior to release).

I don't think it's lack of hype has anything to do with SM3. If Tobey Maguire was back (Dunst is optional), I'd feel pretty comfortable saying it would at least cross $250 million, because people still have affection for the character and the series. SM3 to me was more like Batman Forever than Batman & Robin, fans were unhappy but the general public wasn't against another movie (as long as it didn't suck). If they just made TASM as a loose sequel with the new cast we have now, new tone, even Gwen Stacy (just imply he broke up with MJ), and avoided the origin and high school , it'd probably have more hype.

But this is essentially a remake of SM1. Different villain, tone and story emphasis, but it's still about high school outside loser Peter Parker becoming Spider-Man after a tragedy and trying to get his high school girl-next-door crush. Everyone I've talked to feels like it's a rehash and a cynical cash grab.

Despite not liking the costume or the Lizard's design, I think it looks like it has potential (love Emma Stone and a wisecracking Spidey), but I could see this being the end of the franchise for a long time.

 

[DACrowe]

Also to further this - look at what happened to X-Men:First Class. Very well critically acclaimed and I have yet to hear one bad word about it from general audience members YET it brought in the least money of all X-Men films and X-Men 3 performed very similarly to Spider-Man 3. Most of it's money coming in that first week due to X2. And then First Class got even lower - due to Wolverine most likely.

http://boxofficemojo.com/franchises/chart/?id=xmen.htm

Having a bad superhero film in a franchise, despite a somewhat reboot? It didn't work in Batman's favor. It didn't work in X-Men's favor. I'm just not getting my hopes up for Spider-Man because I have no idea how it'll be that different. You're saying the film will rock, that's for granted - I agree. But so did First Class and Begins, that didn't help - audience was still wary. For these films? As First Class 2 will show. You earn back the trust - then the second go around you can earn gold. Look for MOS to show similarly most likely. This happens time and time again. And I doubt there'll be an exception.

B&R is on a different level than X3/Wolverine or SM3. B&R bombed at the box office because it was pretty much hated by everyone. X3 and SM3 were successes (I think Wolverine may have underperformed). I compare it more to the Pirates films. Pirates 2 was disliked, but Pirates 3 still crossed $300 million. Pirates 3 was hated, but Pirates 4 still got close to $250 million domestic.

I think if XFC starred Hugh Jackman or TASM (Lizard and parents) starred Maguire, they'd do well. I think rebooting so soon with a new cast is off-putting to many. That is why XFC underperformed despite being great. However, if TASM doesn't cross $200 million (I think it will) the series is in trouble because these films are far more expensive than the X-movies are to make.

 

[Ultimatehero]

For whatever reason, those sound slightly logical too, I doubt SONY is looking for that much. As we saw with BB, the second go-around if you're well received the first time is what brings in the big bucks. If critics and audience hate it? Yeah, there's gonna be trouble. Otherwise, not really. They know they have to re-establish themselves.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

The big problem that ASM has is that people are getting the impression that they've seen it before and only a decade ago at that. There are changes, of course, but the overall narrative looks to be pretty similar, and people are noticing. Even the Lizard is similar to Movie Norman as the good scientist/father figure that turns himself into a monster and loses his sanity and humanity in the process. Plus his look is horrible and that is a major turnoff even without the other problems.

The reason films like Casino Royale and Batman Begins worked is that they were new stories. Dr. No was not the first James Bond adventure (in universe), like Casino Royale was and the stories themselves had nothing in common other than the Bond character himself. Likewise, in Batman, the title character was already established at the beginning of the film. It shows the deaths of the Waynes in flashback (as does Batman Forever), but never goes beyond that. Batman Begins was new.

ASM will be a success because I imagine the foreign markets will flock to it, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if it is a disappointment domestically.

 

[jmc]

'The Avengers' is going to be # 1 until at least May 25.

Reasoning:

Second week: 'Dark Shadows', look for Avengers WOM to elevate it if all these reviews are right (however, it'll be close without a doubt)

Third Week: 'Battleship' is guaranteed # 3 (or possibly 4). I have yet to hear an audience respond good to it. 'Dictator' for what it is will do great business, I may be wrong, but I believe it will beat 'Battleship' which seems to be the summer flop just due to (as said) audience reaction to the trailer. I would have placed it as a contender for #2, however due to it probably being R - that's a stretch. 'Dark Shadows' remains as # 2 and doing good business alongside 'The Avengers' as # 1.

Forth week: 'Men in Black 3' is the first big movie that might lower 'The Avengers' or 'Dark Shadows.'

Its word of mouth would have to be astronomical to fight off the competition to last 4 weeks up top, it's may beat off Dark Shadows but given Battleship (sadly) isn't sinking overseas shows a 2 week run up top at best. If there was literally nothing big between now and end of May then I agree you might be in with a shot. Only reason Hunger Games managed 4 weeks on top is because there was no competition (hint hint Hollywood).

 

[The Morningstar]

I don't really see any of those movies being real competition, even if Avengers somehow has bad WOM. It'll be like Transformers, a beast at the box office, regardless of quality.

And there is a big enough gap between Avengers and the next real event movie in TDKR that people won't need to "save themselves", so to speak.

 

[Evil Twin]

The big problem that ASM has is that people are getting the impression that they've seen it before and only a decade ago at that. There are changes, of course, but the overall narrative looks to be pretty similar, and people are noticing. Even the Lizard is similar to Movie Norman as the good scientist/father figure that turns himself into a monster and loses his sanity and humanity in the process. Plus his look is horrible and that is a major turnoff even without the other problems.

I think it's worth noting that TASM looks like a downturn in star power to the general public. Defoe might not have been a superstar, but he was a very recognizable and credible presence. Rhys-Ifans is a nobody in comparison.

People will likely ultimately turn out, but I get the impression that Sony is essentially asking the general public to take a chance on TASM that the previous version never really asked them to. Asking the public to take chances is always risky at the box office. You want the public thinking that they WILL like an upcoming film, not that they MIGHT like an upcoming film.

 

[Evil Twin]

I don't really see any of those movies being real competition, even if Avengers somehow has bad WOM. It'll be like Transformers, a beast at the box office, regardless of quality.

And there is a big enough gap between Avengers and the next real event movie in TDKR that people won't need to "save themselves", so to speak.

The Avengers will be fine even if Dark Shadows opens #1 in week 2. Even if it's fairly front loaded. The Avengers will open like a no doubt about it hit and that will be the storyline.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

The Raimi series definitely had more recognizable actors. No dispute there.

 

[Ultimatehero]

I mean, I don't know about that. Andrew Garfield is known from 'The Social Network.' A very recent awards season film that MANY saw. Many girls, I'm betting, know about Emma Stone - especially from 'Easy A' which if I recall correctly was a box office success due to that core demographic. Then you've got Dennis Leary, Martin Sheen and Sally Field all more recognizable to the older crowd. I personally rank those names as being more overall recognizable than the first Spider-Man movie. Yeah, many may not know who Rhyss is but the others? Definitely. I'd say the only real name that stands out from 2002 is Tobey. Unless Dafeo was some big actor to general audiences back then that I'm not aware of? He seems to have the same recognition as Rhys. Unsure because Rhys tends to blend into his roles but he has A LOT more core movies to general audiences than I see Dafeo having, only see 'Speed 2' and 'Last Temptation of Christ' (which how many in the GA saw?). I'd say Stone is a modern day Dunst. And James Franco? Sure now - but Spidey was one of his first movies.

I'd be really surprised if 'Battleship' does good in the slightest. I mean, unless I'm the only one who's only heard people laughing at the trailers? That doesn't seem good. I'm calling it officially like I have before - flop of the summer. Just if people were interested, I'd doubt we would be seeing that sort of response to it in theaters here in the states.

The thing is - it doesn't seem to have that much competition other than 'Dark Shadows.' Battleship? As said, granted bomb of the summer in the states. Audience hasn't been responding to at all only in "that looks dumb" laughter, I've yet to hear anything different and I go to the movies A LOT lol - probably more than I should. Dictator is going to be a HUGE success - however keep in mind that it's also rated R.

 

[Figs]

Audience hasn't been responding to at all only in "that looks dumb" laughter, I've yet to hear anything different and I go to the movies A LOT lol - probably more than I should. Dictator is going to be a HUGE success - however keep in mind that it's also rated R.

I can't say if it will bomb or not, but I have been hearing similar reactions. The same kind of chuckles and laughs I heard everytime they showed the Cowboys & Aliens trailer.

I think it could do well just looking at the last two TF films. Same type of over the top action involving some type of aliens.

 

[Raiden]

The more I think about it, the more I'm starting to believe that The Avengers could be #1 for three straight weeks. TA should be able to handly DS easily, but Battleship will probably be a close runner-up, extremely close. If not for Will Smith, TA might have a shot against MIBIII (which ironically also came from Marvel, albeit from the Malibu imprint), but I don't think TA will be able to hold on to the top spot in its fourth week.

 

[Ultimatehero]

I can't say if it will bomb or not, but I have been hearing similar reactions. The same kind of chuckles and laughs I heard everytime they showed the Cowboys & Aliens trailer.

I think it could do well just looking at the last two TF films. Same type of over the top action involving some type of aliens.

Awesome 'Cowboys and Aliens' example, completely forgot about that.

The difference though is? This is looking to most people as a rip-off of 'Transformers.' Also that laughter I've never heard for a TF film. Which kinda separates it. I think in marketing they went, "they love TF - let's give them a trailer like that." But that backfired into a 'It's a TF ripoff reaction.'

Unsure where it's doing good overseas, and not to sound like a jerk, but I'm betting it's Japan or China or someplace like that? That culture naturally just loves these kinds of films. It's culturally-ingrained in them like superheroes are to us I think. They just love tech that come to life.

I mean, for example, yeah fans and those who like the Spidey films obviously see the actors who portray May and Ben Parker as THE May and Ben Parker - just like there will always be one Alfred and one Q. But, in terms of recognition. How were they more recognizable than Sheen and Field? To me, it seems to be obviously the other way around and we got more recognizable actors this time. Like how Caine took over as Alfred.

 

[Evil Twin]

I mean, I don't know about that. Andrew Garfield is known from 'The Social Network.' A very recent awards season film that MANY saw. Many girls, I'm betting, know about Emma Stone - especially from 'Easy A' which if I recall correctly was a box office success due to that core demographic. Then you've got Dennis Leary, Martin Sheen and Sally Field all more recognizable to the older crowd. I personally rank those names as being more overall recognizable than the first Spider-Man movie. Yeah, many may not know who Rhyss is but the others? Definitely. I'd say the only real name that stands out from 2002 is Tobey. Unless Dafeo was some big actor to general audiences back then that I'm not aware of? He seems to have the same recognition as Rhys. Unsure because Rhys tends to blend into his roles but he has A LOT more core movies to general audiences than I see Dafeo having, only see 'Speed 2' and 'Last Temptation of Christ' (which how many in the GA saw?). I'd say Stone is a modern day Dunst. And James Franco? Sure now - but Spidey was one of his first movies.

Defoe was a fairly big name then and really had been since Platoon. Perhaps not household, but mentioned as a possible nominee for Oscars a number of times. The Last Temptation of Christ got his name out even if people didn't see it due to the controversy. Plus Missisippi Burning, Born on the Fourth of July, Clear and Present Danger, and The English Patient weren't obscure movies. Not to mention he was coming off an Oscar nomination for Shadow of the Vampire.

Maguire and Dunst may not have been any bigger, or much bigger, than Garfield and Stone, but Defoe carried a ton more weight than Rhys-Ifans does. The general public knows who the main characters are and that's where the comparison is going to come down to.

 

[Ultimatehero]

Lol. Yeah, forgot about those movies somehow. So he was definitely more recognizable than Rhyss (granted he was in Little Nicky, Replacements, and Harry Potter - could name more but just keeping it in general - just much smaller roles and easily blends in which I like about him and Gary Oldman). But, in over-all, this one has the most big names attached in comparison.

I'd say, as said before, Stone is the same. But Maguire? A little film known as 'Cider House Rules.' But, again, unsure since I was a kid lol - may have been like 'Social Network.'

I have yet to see it come down to that for Batman. Everyone has one Alfred, but I have yet to see one person complain about Michael Caine and not the prior Alfred. I don't see much similarly complaining about Sally Field or Martin Sheen in a million years.

Does Garfield have a major test ahead of him? Yes. But so did Bale. So did Heath. So did Routh - and I mention Routh because, if I remember correctly, a lot have said right guy wrong film. That always comes up. It's not unique to Garfield's or Stone's predicament.

 

[Iceman]

Does being no.1 on consecutive weekends matter anyway?

 

[Ultimatehero]

In the end, doesn't matter but I just can't see anything except DARK SHADOWS challenging it.

 

[Iceman]

In the end, doesn't matter but I just can't see anything except DARK SHADOWS challenging it.

Yeah, I didn't mean to step on your argument btw just thinking out aloud.

 

[Ultimatehero]

Unsure how it was stepping on something, lol, just explaining that it doesn't matter. I mean every film, except Battleship imo, is bound to be successful since the audience seems genuinely interested in them.

 

[Iceman]

Unsure how it was stepping on something, lol, just explaining that it doesn't matter. I mean every film, except Battleship imo, is bound to be successful since the audience seems genuinely interested in them.

Glad you agree lol.

If Avengers can open and hold like TDK ($158m, $75m, $42m) it should happen. I believe that's possible and also if Avengers reviews follow the pattern of the ones we've seen so far, I can't imagine anyone choosing Battleship over Avengers (even for a 2nd viewing) unless they hate superheroes or want to see Rihanna. t: It seems like a very weak subset of what Avengers can offer.