2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 2

[DACrowe]

I think it's worth noting that TASM looks like a downturn in star power to the general public. Defoe might not have been a superstar, but he was a very recognizable and credible presence. Rhys-Ifans is a nobody in comparison.

People will likely ultimately turn out, but I get the impression that Sony is essentially asking the general public to take a chance on TASM that the previous version never really asked them to. Asking the public to take chances is always risky at the box office. You want the public thinking that they WILL like an upcoming film, not that they MIGHT like an upcoming film.

I don't think any of the Spidey films had star power se other than its leads (Maguire, Dunst and Franco) became stars after the first movie. Dafoe was known, but as a character actor in films like Platoon from 15 years prior and indies like Shadow of the Vampire the year before. Alfred Molina is well known on stage and in indies, but the mainstream probably still knows him only as Doc Ock. Grace and Church were probably the biggest stars they ever cast as villains at their time, both from TV (Church was superb in his nominated work in Sideways, but the mainstream never saw that).

I actually think Andrew Garfield and Emma Stone are bigger names than Maguire and Dunst were when they were cast. Stone probably can actually bring some people to the theater. But ultimately this movie will stand on whether or not the GA wants to see the Spidey origin again in a darker tone ten years later.

 

[Iceman]

I actually think Andrew Garfield and Emma Stone are bigger names than Maguire and Dunst were when they were cast. Stone probably can actually bring some people to the theater. But ultimately this movie will stand on whether or not the GA wants to see the Spidey origin again in a darker tone ten years later.

I prefer Garfield & Stone to Maguire & Dunst but sure as heck don't want to see the origin story retold so soon.

 

[DACrowe]

I mean, I don't know about that. Andrew Garfield is known from 'The Social Network.' A very recent awards season film that MANY saw. Many girls, I'm betting, know about Emma Stone - especially from 'Easy A' which if I recall correctly was a box office success due to that core demographic. Then you've got Dennis Leary, Martin Sheen and Sally Field all more recognizable to the older crowd. I personally rank those names as being more overall recognizable than the first Spider-Man movie. Yeah, many may not know who Rhyss is but the others? Definitely. I'd say the only real name that stands out from 2002 is Tobey. Unless Dafeo was some big actor to general audiences back then that I'm not aware of? He seems to have the same recognition as Rhys. Unsure because Rhys tends to blend into his roles but he has A LOT more core movies to general audiences than I see Dafeo having, only see 'Speed 2' and 'Last Temptation of Christ' (which how many in the GA saw?). I'd say Stone is a modern day Dunst. And James Franco? Sure now - but Spidey was one of his first movies.

I'd be really surprised if 'Battleship' does good in the slightest. I mean, unless I'm the only one who's only heard people laughing at the trailers? That doesn't seem good. I'm calling it officially like I have before - flop of the summer. Just if people were interested, I'd doubt we would be seeing that sort of response to it in theaters here in the states.

The thing is - it doesn't seem to have that much competition other than 'Dark Shadows.' Battleship? As said, granted bomb of the summer in the states. Audience hasn't been responding to at all only in "that looks dumb" laughter, I've yet to hear anything different and I go to the movies A LOT lol - probably more than I should. Dictator is going to be a HUGE success - however keep in mind that it's also rated R.

I think Battleship could either bomb (like Cowboy & Aliens/Green Lantern style) or underperform (Van Helsing style). I don't know which.

Two certified bombs? Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter (which I kind of want to see) and The Dictator. The first is opening up against Pixar's Brave and has been treated with the same bemused "that is a terrible idea laugh!" as Snakes on a Plane and Cowboys & Aliens. The latter is going to have a solid Friday and begin disappearing almost as fast as Bruno did, in my opinion.

 

[Liam_H]

Does being no.1 on consecutive weekends matter anyway?

In long term no but for marketing it certainly helps.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

Spidey himself was the starpower of the first Spidey film. At least in the marketing stage. After that Tobey and the cast became inseparable as it relates to Spider-man and its world. People wanted to see Spidey, Tobey's Spidey. The amazing Spider-man has the unenviable position of once again drawing Peter a new face. Plus, the novelty of seeing Spidey on the big screen isn't an enticing a proposition as it's the fourth film. People will be skeptical; perhaps from some sort of loyalty to the previous faces that helped sketch these characters. Which means it will have a modest box office performance (relative to monsters like the Avengers). If it's a good film, the now skeptical GA will see the film in theaters or on home video and disassociate Parker with it's previous face, Tobey, and learn to accept the new Spidey, Andrew Garfield.

 

[Iceman]

In long term no but for marketing it certainly helps.

Fair point.

 

[Ultimatehero]

I think Battleship could either bomb (like Cowboy & Aliens/Green Lantern style) or underperform (Van Helsing style). I don't know which.

Two certified bombs? Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter (which I kind of want to see) and The Dictator. The first is opening up against Pixar's Brave and has been treated with the same bemused "that is a terrible idea laugh!" as Snakes on a Plane and Cowboys & Aliens. The latter is going to have a solid Friday and begin disappearing almost as fast as Bruno did, in my opinion.

Yeah, I like Abe, but I don't think the general audience will really 'get' that film. By that I mean give it a chance. The screenplay is great. I think the critics will like it. But, it will just seem too ridiculous to most people to give a shot. People think it's a movie like Snakes, when really it's more of a serious historic action film. It's luring in the wrong crowd and holding off the one that would like it so far.

I think part of what worked against Bruno, I'm not homophobic, is that the character was overly flamboyant which would easily lead people away. Here? Every time the audience is laughing in hysterics. It won't make Borat numbers, but I doubt it will be disappointing either. A comedy that's disappointing usually doesn't always have that reaction. The character isn't rubbing people the wrong way like Bruno did. So, I'd say Bruno was definitely more front-loaded than anything. For an R comedy in these months, basically, it'll make what they're looking for. I doubt they see it as #1 or #2 of the week.

 

[Liam_H]

Fair point.

I mean I don't watch TV anymore but I'm pretty certain they still run ads where they tout if a movie becomes #1/breaks a records/#1 for however many straight weeks etc. This will sway certain general audiences.

 

[Ultimatehero]

/\ Hunger Games, for example.

 

[terry78]

The wonder of seeing Spider-Man on the big screen with today's technology has kind of already come and gone with what Raimi did. Say what you will, but back in 2002, we were seeing **** done via live action that we had only seen in cartoons, video games and the books. Webb is basically rebooting a la the Ultimate books.

 

[Ultimatehero]

The wonder of seeing Spider-Man on the big screen with today's technology has kind of already come and gone with what Raimi did. Say what you will, but back in 2002, we were seeing **** done via live action that we had only seen in cartoons, video games and the books. Webb is basically rebooting a la the Ultimate books.

I think no one expects that. Hell, TDKR doesn't even have that going for it. Only superhero film that does is Avengers.

 

[jmc]

Seriously, looking at the next 3 months worth of films you'd be hard pressed to imagine anymore than 5 or 6 films actually being good.

 

[Ultimatehero]

Seriously, looking at the next 3 months worth of films you'd be hard pressed to imagine anymore than 5 or 6 films actually being good.

Personally:

1. The Avengers (Already getting good reviews)
2. Dark Shadows (Burton & Depp, calling it - 'Edward Scissorhands' return to form)
3. The Dictator (His movies are usually funny - this one seems like it has something to say too)
4. Snow White and The Huntsman (An entertaining script, those visuals? Definitely going to be an experience)
5. Prometheus (Beyond awesome, need I say more?)
6. Rock of Ages (Great musical, great cast = great film)
7. Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter (The script is surprisingly very cool and historical)
8. Brave (Pixar, come on!)
9. The Amazing Spider-Man (Biased, but looks cool)
10. The Dark Knight Rises (A step up from TDK, saying that now - but, I'm in it for a brief second so again biased)

Other movies I'm not putting in the list of predictions since these I have some background knowledge on or some indicator.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

Dark Shadows (Burton & Depp)

This is a positive nowadays?

 

[Ultimatehero]

This is a positive nowadays?

For me it is, especially since Depp seems more restrained. As said, calling it - I'm getting these vibes:

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

I think no one expects that. Hell, TDKR doesn't even have that going for it. Only superhero film that does is Avengers.

'

The selling point for this film to me is the more character driven aspect. But people see what they want to. If they want more Bing Bang Boom then maybe this isn't for them like a Transformers or Avengers. The action will be there, but I'm more interested in the characterization myself. Those scenes between great actors. That is where I feel TASM will deliver in spades. I'm sure I have the minority perspective on that one.

In the Avengers clips, the Iron Man/Thor battle really didn't excite me as much as the Fury/Loki scene in the cell. That is the one I've watched multiple times, not the fight. I'm probably in the minority on that one as well. Who knows, maybe not.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

If they want more Bing Bang Boom then maybe this isn't for them like a Transformers or Avengers.

Avengers, from all I've read, is far from just "bing bang boom". Don't forget that Whedon wrote the script with seemingly the most freedom granted to any filmmaker since Favreau in IM1. Frankly, it's even an insult to equate the films.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

This is a positive nowadays?

Good question. The annual reunion. Like cast members at a Trek convention.

 

[Ultimatehero]

I don't think the majority expected "wow, omg" from Spidey in that sense past the first film. So, I'm unsure why that would apply here. Everything that can be seen has been seen before SM2 was even on the calendar. My favorite Avengers scene is the banter between Loki and Stark.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

Avengers, from all I've read, is far from just "bing bang boom". Don't forget that Whedon wrote the script with seemingly the most freedom granted to any filmmaker since Favreau in IM1. Frankly, it's even an insult to equate the films.

Believe me, I've been hanging out quite a bit at the Avengers boards. I know the score. If you are insulted then your insulted, not my intention. I was talking more about the marketing aspect and how people react to it. The first TASM trailer had very little action in comparison to it's second or to the Avengers scale of action. I don't mind that myself, in fact it made me more excited. Maybe not others as much.

 

[Ultimatehero]

Believe me, I've been hanging out quite a bit at the Avengers boards. I know the score. If you are insulted then your insulted, not my intention. I was talking more about the marketing aspect and how people react to it. The first TASM trailer had very little action in comparison to it's second or to the Avengers scale of action. I don't mind that myself, in fact it made me more excited. Maybe not others as much.

Yeah. Definitely. I mean, this will make me sound weird - but if you have a trailer just focusing on Peter dealing with his parents? I'd pay to see that a hundred times lol. I guess I'm the oddest demographic they didn't expect - the interested 'orphan.' Always rocks though.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

Well, I wouldn't mind one bit if superheroes switched from summer spectacle to Arronofsky-esque character studies. But that's not happening.

 

[jmc]

Avengers, from all I've read, is far from just "bing bang boom". Don't forget that Whedon wrote the script with seemingly the most freedom granted to any filmmaker since Favreau in IM1. Frankly, it's even an insult to equate the films.

Makes you wonder how much better their previous films would have been had they allowed the same freedom afforded to Avengers.

 

[terry78]

Gotta crawl before you can walk.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

Yeah. Definitely. I mean, this will make me sound weird - but if you have a trailer just focusing on Peter dealing with his parents? I'd pay to see that a hundred times lol. I guess I'm the oddest demographic they didn't expect - the interested 'orphan.' Always rocks though.

We're the same in that regard.

Action is a selling point for sure, but it's well-drawn/fleshed out characters are what makes it for me. And from everything I've read these are my expectations. Great effects and action sequences are the icing on the cake. My expectation is that this will have it (and Avengers)

Some of the scenes I'm looking forward to the most are the intimate scenes with Peter and Uncle Ben (Garfield and Sheen), or with Peter and Conners. Between those and the action scenes, it's no contest for me.