2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 2

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

Well, I wouldn't mind one bit if superheroes switched from summer spectacle to Arronofsky-esque character studies. But that's not happening.

To that degree, probably not.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

Gotta crawl before you can walk.

And now that they can walk, don't start crawling again. The new standard going forward.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

Gotta crawl before you can walk.

But they walked first, very well, under Favreau's guidance. Then seemingly retrograded to crawling before relearning to walk again. An arc unto itself.

 

[Ultimatehero]

Personally liked all the MARVEL movies.

1. Captain America
2. Iron Man
3. Thor
4. Incredible Hulk
5. Iron Man 2

Cap the best to me because it just seemed so classic. It reminded me of Indiana Jones. It's what Indy 4 should have been.

 

[Iceman]

I think Avengers is going to be better than all the previous Marvel movies. They all have merit but none of them are near my top 20 films.

 

[rayc1971]

x men first class is a good movie to compare amazing spiderman too it could be a good reboot but make less money than the last 3rd film of both franchises.so if it does 200 or 220 mill that would be fine.the fans will be back onboard and the sequels would make more money.

 

[DACrowe]

Yeah, I like Abe, but I don't think the general audience will really 'get' that film. By that I mean give it a chance. The screenplay is great. I think the critics will like it. But, it will just seem too ridiculous to most people to give a shot. People think it's a movie like Snakes, when really it's more of a serious historic action film. It's luring in the wrong crowd and holding off the one that would like it so far.

I think the idea just doesn't have enough clout to pull in a large audience. The absurdity of the premise will only appeal to a certain audience and then when you play it completely serious and deadpan the premise (as the trailer promises), that narrows the audience that can appreciate the far-out concept even further. I read the book in 2010 and enjoyed it. But the book was a mix-match of actual history, tongue-in-cheek historical nonsense/fiction, and a few genuine attempts at horror, suspense and drama. The movie looks much more straight-faced. It may be good. But it won't find an audience until DVD or even HBO, I suspect.

I think part of what worked against Bruno, I'm not homophobic, is that the character was overly flamboyant which would easily lead people away. Here? Every time the audience is laughing in hysterics. It won't make Borat numbers, but I doubt it will be disappointing either. A comedy that's disappointing usually doesn't always have that reaction. The character isn't rubbing people the wrong way like Bruno did. So, I'd say Bruno was definitely more front-loaded than anything. For an R comedy in these months, basically, it'll make what they're looking for. I doubt they see it as #1 or #2 of the week.

Bruno rubbed people the wrong way because many people are homophobic in this country. The scene where he starts making out with another guy in a cage match to the horror of the audience (some broke down into tears and looked like they were experiencing physical harm from the display) was pretty ingenious and hilarious. But in the audience I saw the movie with, there was only groans and anger. That movie burned bridges with audiences that liked Borat.

I expect it to make a ton of money on Friday, drop on Saturday and then completely disappear after its OW. Maybe it won't bomb like Bruno, but it will not be a hit.

 

[DACrowe]

Seriously, looking at the next 3 months worth of films you'd be hard pressed to imagine anymore than 5 or 6 films actually being good.

Really? Most summers are filled with terrible movies, but this one looks pretty promising.

I'm pretty much expecting these films to be at least good (if not better):

The Avengers (for Joss Whedon, if nothing more)
Prometheus
To Rome with Love
Brave
The Dark Knight Rises

That's only five guarantees, but that's better than most summers already and I think there are a lot ones with potential such as:

Dark Shadows (based entirely on interviews and nothing to do with the trailer)
Snow White and the Huntsman
Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter
The Amazing Spider-Man

All in all, it should be a solid summer of movies.

 

[terry78]

I think we're forgetting a little juggernaut called Madagascar 3. And I am not being sarcastic, that thing will make some bank.

 

[Ultimatehero]

I think we're forgetting a little juggernaut called Madagascar 3. And I am not being sarcastic, that thing will make some bank.

Definitely. Personally looking forward to Ice Age more. But, I think people aren't listing them as 'looking good' is because it's unsure whether they were made just to cash in or have something more going for them.

But in the audience I saw the movie with, there was only groans and anger. That movie burned bridges with audiences that liked Borat.

I think you'll really be surprised. This guys is a chameleon. I doubt anyone even remembers Bruno. They remember Borat though. I've seen everyone laughing in hysterics and being interested in the trailer ranging from college aged to those in their fifties. To me, that broad range of demographic and that that is always the response says something. Usually that's the best way to gauge how a movie will do in my opinion. Is not net speculation but actually being in a theater and looking around to see how people react. Bruno had homophobia, that led people away. This does not and I have yet to see this trailer one time without hearing multiple people burst out laughing scattered across age ranges.

 

[Liam_H]

Ice Age 4 is better positioned to do better than Madagascar 3 since Brave comes out two weeks later that would steal its audience. While Ice Age 4 has no competition until maybe Diary of a Wimpy Kid 3.

In regards to the Dictator it all depends if the movie is actually funny itself. The times I've seen the trailer in theaters the response has been okay at best. If its more like Bruno and less like Borat it'll drop quickly after opening weekend.

 

[The Morningstar]

Well, I wouldn't mind one bit if superheroes switched from summer spectacle to Arronofsky-esque character studies. But that's not happening.

That could happen, but it only works with certain characters. It's like the comics, not all comics would fit into the same genre.

 

[DACrowe]

It won't happen. Superheroes are a visceral image. If film is going to explore them, they are going to cost a lot to produce. Hollywood wants them to make money. A psycho-drama Batman movie without spectacle or a Spidey movie where Peter almost never puts on his costume would not sell to anyone but adult fans (small audience). Besides, if someone wants to make a drama about an orphan living with his aunt and uncle without the superhero aspect being played up, why make it Spider-Man? Just make an indie with more creative freedom about an orphan living with his aunt and uncle.

These characters are defined by their costumes and that will always determine how far a movie adaptation of them can go. At least the mainstream popular ones, that is.

 

[The Morningstar]

Who says you can't do a psycho-drama with the superhero aspects? And who the hell would want that? That's not a superhero film. You just need the right character.

Strangely enough, and it will never happen, i think Aronofsky could be suited to someone like Deadpool. That whole psychological aspect where the lines of reality and fiction/dreams are blurred would work with that character. ****, even David Lynch could do something interesting with that. Would be insane.

 

[jmc]

Gotta crawl before you can walk.

With Iron Man? Dude they hit the ground running if anything.

 

[Evil Twin]

Good question. The annual reunion. Like cast members at a Trek convention.

Depp/Burton haven't worked together quite that often. If anything, Depp's been hanging out with Gore Verbinski more lately.

I'm expecting Dark Shadows to do about what Sleepy Hollow did, adjusted for inflation. It's not a universally loved kids book, ala Charlie and the Chocolate Factory or Alice in Wonderland, but it's also not an R-rated horror musical.

 

[jmc]

Dark Shadow can go one of two way I believe, it'll either be crap or a sleeper hit. Could be this years Bridesmaids if it's good.

 

[chaseter]

Abe Lincoln is going to flop.

Dark Shadows will do good but it won't be a runaway hit. I doubt it tops 250 domestic...but still good.

 

[ThePowerCosmic]

Gotta crawl before you can walk.

With Iron Man? Dude they hit the ground running if anything.

[YT]vrYDAUsxfLA[/YT]

 

[Iceman]

Avengers getting great reviews. If it bears out might have to raise my crazy forecasts even higher. At the moment I say domestic opening weekend record challenger with normal/half decent legs for films opening that big. I know that adds up to a ****load but with the competition over the 1st few weeks I can really see it.

 

[dark_b]

not sayin that Avengers is going to bomb or undereprform. but its this time of the year when Avengers is gettings good reviews so by fanboy standards it will again mean that reviews are imoportant. until a marvel/DC movie gets bad reviews.

hihi

 

[The Morningstar]

I don't think reviews are important. I think Avengers will make a mint even if every single review from now on is negative. Some films are just critic proof.

 

[Ultimatehero]

Um, to clarify all I said was that's all this Spidey movie needs to sell me on it lol. That's what it already is, in my mind.

 

[DACrowe]

Abe Lincoln is going to flop.

Dark Shadows will do good but it won't be a runaway hit. I doubt it tops 250 domestic...but still good.

It will make around $150 million domestic, I think. Pretty solid, but not amazing. It's Burton-and-Depp post-Pirates, it will hit. I just hope it's a good movie.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

Avengers getting great reviews. If it bears out might have to raise my crazy forecasts even higher. At the moment I say domestic opening weekend record challenger with normal/half decent legs for films opening that big. I know that adds up to a ****load but with the competition over the 1st few weeks I can really see it.

It'll definitely send TDK to third place, but I think Deathly Hollows is safe.