2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 2

[EML420]

I dont think Dark Shadows is going to be huge not a flop but ok BO and Depp can flop Rum Diary any one.

 

[Iceman]

not sayin that Avengers is going to bomb or undereprform. but its this time of the year when Avengers is gettings good reviews so by fanboy standards it will again mean that reviews are imoportant. until a marvel/DC movie gets bad reviews.

hihi

They're as important/unimportant as they always are. Just another piece of the puzzle alongside tracking figures, early fan reactions, trailers/clips etc to help project where it might end up.

 

[dark_b]

i am very interested in the Avengers and Spiderman BO.

 

[DACrowe]

I dont think Dark Shadows is going to be huge not a flop but ok BO and Depp can flop Rum Diary any one.

The Rum Diary was an R-rated eccentric comedy meant to appeal to people who like Thompson or gonzo writing (i.e. incredibly niche). Dark Shadows is a PG-13 "comedy" (hopefully it's more than that) starring him as a vampire directed by Tim Burton. Their last two PG-13 movies post-Pirates were massive hits. This project's source material is not as well known, but them + vampires = a solid hit.

That's what I think will happen in any case.

 

[The Morningstar]

The thing with Dark Shadows is, I'm not quote sure it even has enough of that Depp/Burton charm. The first half of the trailer is really good. But the second half? It's a mess and doesn't look like it came from the mind of Tim Burton.

 

[chaseter]

It will do good but won't be a hit. I think it will pass $100 million domestic but definitely won't be a monster hit and pass $250 domestic. Where it falls in that range idk.

 

[jmc]

The thing with Dark Shadows is, I'm not quote sure it even has enough of that Depp/Burton charm. The first half of the trailer is really good. But the second half? It's a mess and doesn't look like it came from the mind of Tim Burton.

Dunno, people seems to love Deep playing some zany character regardless, pretty much the last 10 years of his career he has been doing weird mainstream roles and for the most part they've been successful. It's when he does a more 'normal' character that the response isn't nearly as good.

 

[cherokeesam]

Dunno, people seems to love Deep playing some zany character regardless, pretty much the last 10 years of his career he has been doing weird mainstream roles and for the most part they've been successful. It's when he does a more 'normal' character that the response isn't nearly as good.

Agreed.

Indie (or indie-esque) Depp projects like Rum Diary, Dr. Parnassus and The Libertine aren't meant to be box office gold; but Burton projects are, and they've got that built-in Goth audience that's guaranteed to show up for anything that says Burton, Depp and vampires.

It's not going to be a runaway hit, and I seriously doubt it'll topple Avengers from the #1 domestic spot after just one week, but it'll rate a strong second.

 

[Punisher Rising]

I see Dark Shadows doing pretty well. Not a blockbuster but definitely profitable.

 

[:eek:]

Top 10 worldwide so far:

1. The Hunger Games $536,4 million
2. The Intouchables $322,5 million
3. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island $320,6 million
4. Dr. Seuss' The Lorax $279,6 million
5. John Carter $269,5 million
6. Wrath of the Titans $260,4 million
7. Titanic $216 million ($2 059,2 million in total)
8. Safe House $199,3 million
9. The Vow $181,5 million
10. Underworld Awakening $160,1 million

 

[terry78]

Dark Shadows apparently cost about 100 mil even to make, which I am assuming a chunk of that went to Depp and Pfiffer's salaries. There only seem to be a few big action setpieces, unless they're withholding.

 

[rashad]

‘Battleship’ Past $100M Foreign Box Office

 

[Iceman]

I thought the Dark Shadows trailer makes it look quite fun. Doesn't look like a film that would do huge at the box office, more like respectable.

 

[psylockolussus]

My prediction for 2012's top 5 highest grossing movies
1. The Dark Knight Rises
2. The Avengers
3. The Hunger Games
4. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2
5. The Amazing Spider-Man

LOL @ them having a "the" in the title.

 

[:eek:]

My prediction for 2012's top 5 highest grossing movies
1. The Dark Knight Rises
2. The Avengers
3. The Hunger Games
4. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2
5. The Amazing Spider-Man

LOL @ them having a "the" in the title.

And you could add The Hobbit to the "the"-list

 

[Selim844]

My predictions for the summer + The Hobbit:


The Amazing Spider-Man - $270
The Avengers - $400
Battleship - $120
The Bourne Legacy - $190
Brave - $260
The Dark Knight Rises - $440
Dark Shadows - $130
The Expendables 2 - $100
G.I. Joe: Retaliation - $160
The Hobbit - $410
Ice Age: Continental Drift - $190
Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted - $160
Men in Black 3 - $180
Neighborhood Watch - $110
Prometheus - $160
Rock of Ages - $80
Snow White and the Huntsman - $210
Total Recall - $130

 

[DACrowe]

TASM ain't breaking $250 million domestic. Neither is the Avengers crossing $400 million domestic. Just will not happen.

 

[terry78]

TASM ain't breaking $250 million domestic. Neither is the Avengers crossing $400 million domestic. Just will not happen.

You want to make a wager about how close it gets though? Avengers is one of those things I think fans who are like in their 50s and 60s are going to see because it's the first time one of their childhood books is brought to live action.

 

[cherokeesam]

TASM ain't breaking $250 million domestic. Neither is the Avengers crossing $400 million domestic. Just will not happen.

Saved, for when DACrowe eats crow(e) later on this summer.

 

[chaseter]

I stand by DaCrowe's numbers as well.

 

[amazingfantasy15]

Dark Shadow can go one of two way I believe, it'll either be crap or a sleeper hit. Could be this years Bridesmaids if it's good.

It's not going to be this year's Bridesmaids. Bridesmaids was a hit because it was a girl's version of The Hangover, something girls really don't have/get very often.

Dark Shadows is Tim Burton and Johnny Depp doing Tim Burton and Johnny Depp. It'll more likely do numbers like Sweeney Todd, than Alice or Charlie. One, it's not 3D, that's what really helped Alice in Wonderland. Two, it's not as well known of a property as Alice or Charlie. Three, there's too much competetion for a quirky Tim Burton movie.

 

[Ultimatehero]

How is Snow White and the Huntsman looking audience / box office interest? Probable/possible success or a repeat of 'Mirror Mirror'? Hoping success, but don't have the details. Any info would be great.

 

[Fanticon]

I've been way way off before...I'm not even sure I listed everything but these are my predictions.

The Amazing Spider-Man - $260
The Avengers - $400
Battleship - $115
The Bourne Legacy - $90
Brave - $230
The Dark Knight Rises - $550
Dark Shadows - $85
The Expendables 2 - $130
G.I. Joe: Retaliation - $100
Ice Age: Continental Drift - $270
Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted - $190
Men in Black 3 - $285
Neighborhood Watch - $70
Prometheus - $80
Rock of Ages - $50
Snow White and the Huntsman - $90
Total Recall - $65
Abraham Lincoln Vampire Hunter $45


My predictions from last year were as follows

Harry Potter Deathly Hallows 2 400m (actual was 381m)
Transformers 3 260m (actual was 352m)
Pirates 4 275m (actual was 241m)
Kung Fu Panda 2 240m (actual was 165m)
http://www.comingsoon.net/films.php?id=43834Cars 2 255m (actual was 190m)
Captain America 200m (actual was 176m)
X-Men First Class 175m (actual was 146m)
Super 8 225m (actual was 127m)
Green Lantern 145m (actual was 116m)
Thor 200m (actual was 181m)
Hangover 2 275m (actual was 254m)
Cowboys and Aliens 145m (actual was 100m)
Planet of The Apes 60m (actual was 176m)
Bridesmaids 100m (actual was 169m)
Horrible Bosses 50m (actual was 117m)
Smurfs 100m (actual was 142m)
Bad Teacher 115m (actual was 100m)
Priest 55m (actual was 29m)

 

[DACrowe]

It's not going to be this year's Bridesmaids. Bridesmaids was a hit because it was a girl's version of The Hangover, something girls really don't have/get very often.

Dark Shadows is Tim Burton and Johnny Depp doing Tim Burton and Johnny Depp. It'll more likely do numbers like Sweeney Todd, than Alice or Charlie. One, it's not 3D, that's what really helped Alice in Wonderland. Two, it's not as well known of a property as Alice or Charlie. Three, there's too much competetion for a quirky Tim Burton movie.

It's also PG-13, marketed with heavy emphasis on quirky comedy and is not an ultra-gory musical-tragedy like Sweeney Todd. I stand by I think The Dictator and Battleship are both going to underperform. There is still The Avengers, but Dark Shadows is counter-programming that does have crossover appeal to some many males. Unless DS sucks (which I really hope it doesn't, but wouldn't be that surprised if it does), it will do well until Memorial Day weekend. I think it could seriously reach $150 million domestic this summer.

 

[DACrowe]

You want to make a wager about how close it gets though? Avengers is one of those things I think fans who are like in their 50s and 60s are going to see because it's the first time one of their childhood books is brought to live action.

Only if we're using internet money.

I'll say TASM will make no more than $210-215 million domestic. I don't think The Avengers will make more than $370 million. I'll go ahead and say $350-$360 million this summer.