2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 5

[Marvin]

You really don't know how this works.

If I made a movie for $400 million and it made $800 million...did it do better than ASM?

I also like how you said supposedly...like boxofficemojo.com is in some big conspiracy to question your 'facts'.

maybe I don't get it. In your example what you have is more or less a 400 unit margin of profit so no, your example would not equal more than ASM's assuming it's a simply Revenue minus expense equation.

800 - 400 = 400

Using the posted numbers ASM is listed at $697(mill) on BOmojo. As of the last time I check. It's also got a listed (production) budget of $230(mill).
697 - 230 = $467

your example comes out to 400 whereas ASM comes out to 467.

Back to the real comparison if I may. The first Iron man has a listed production budget of 140units. It's listed gross revenue is at 585 units.

585 - 140 = $445.

I'm doing the math in my head so forgive me if I'm wrong but it seems ASM trumps Ironman by 22 million dollars whilst trumping IM2 by 43 million.
ASM - $467
IronMan - $445
IronMan2 - $424

However maybe your right, maybe I don't know how it works and I'm way off base here. Let me know. I will would very much like to add that ASM is still making money too.

Anyways you mentioned my doubting nature of the numbers BO posts. Sure, Studios not only lie all the time but these numbers hardly take into account the total expenses an actual film consumes from it's conception till it's no longer being distributed(mainly promotion).

 

[Bruce Malone]

Something you are missing and has been gone through extensively on the TASM boards is the impact the domestic dollars have compared to foreign markets.

For a variety of reasons including currency differences, local taxes, distribution methods etc. studios claim a far larger percentage of domestic grosses vs overseas. So Iron Man grossing over $300m domestically i believe outweighs any TASM advantage in foreign revenue.

Not every dollar is equal despite how it looks like.

 

[chaseter]

Studios get a percentage of the box office. It decreases each week in the domestic market. Studios get a really small percentage of the foreign market. If a movie makes a billion WW...the studio gets less than 500 million.

 

[:eek:]

SPIDEY AND BATMAN TO OPEN SAME DAY IN CHINA

August 23, 2012 by admin · Leave a Comment



China’s newest film policy allows additional foreign movie imports if they are shown in 3D or IMAX. The result is that The Amazing Spider-Man and The Dark Knight Rises will open on the same day, August 27 — Spider-Man in 2D, 3D and IMAX theaters, giving it a much wider release that Dark Knight, which will be shown only in the IMAX format in 77 theaters. Only four of those theaters will be screening the 70mm film print (the rest are digital) and thereby experiencing the full effect of those scenes that Nolan shot with the bulky IMAX film cameras. Spider-Man will be screened in 74 IMAX theaters in China. Currently it has earned $696.67 million worldwide, while Dark Knight has taken in $901.27 million.

 

[CConn]

Studios get a percentage of the box office. It decreases each week in the domestic market. Studios get a really small percentage of the foreign market. If a movie makes a billion WW...the studio gets less than 500 million.

Of course, the studio always makes a ton of money from licensing agreements and whatnot, so it's pretty damn hard to tell exactly how lucrative a lot of movies are for them.

 

[Marvin]

Something you are missing and has been gone through extensively on the TASM boards is the impact the domestic dollars have compared to foreign markets.

For a variety of reasons including currency differences, local taxes, distribution methods etc. studios claim a far larger percentage of domestic grosses vs overseas. So Iron Man grossing over $300m domestically i believe outweighs any TASM advantage in foreign revenue.

Not every dollar is equal despite how it looks like.

That line of thinking is hard to get a handle on. Almost as hard has how deep in the hole promotional money puts these films. At that point I find it most productive to talk about gross and not the finer workings of revenue. As mentioned above some of these properties such as Transformers lay waste when it comes to toys and merchandise.

As far as I'm concerned IM and ASM have made about the same about of money(and counting). That puts the Spidey Reboot in about as good a popularity standing as both IM and Star trek. If not more.

For example I have no doubt Spidey would steal the show if he showed up in Avengers...but that's me.

 

[chaseter]

That's like Bill O'Reiley thinking God controls the tides. Don't need to get into the inner workings of the moon and gravitational force.

 

[Marvin]

That's like Bill O'Reiley thinking God controls the tides. Don't need to get into the inner workings of the moon and gravitational force.

I suppose so, then again perhaps we should sit down and re look at every single film that's come out and somehow figure out how much money the studio's actually put in to them vs how much they told us they made before we walk away thinking we know anything about which films have actually been successful over the years.

I'd start with The top two grossing films, ignoring inflation(something even O'Reiley himself would no doubt be scoffing us for doing over all these years. I wonder where they really rank considering the time and cost those two implored and how much international money they conjured.

What I'm proposing isn't all that much different than BO mojo and it's two separate lists for all time gross(not revenue) leaders. One that's accurate and the one that everyone cares about cause it's relevant. lol tides come in, tides come out.

 

[rashad]

Weekend Estimates
http://boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/

 

[Liam_H]

TDKR and Timothy Green seem awfully close to one another.

 

[terry78]

Yeah, nothing really stood out this weekend. Expendables is still doing all right as expected.

 

[Dr. Evil]

TDKR and Timothy Green seem awfully close to one another.

Doesn't Timothy Green have a sad ending?

 

[HighFivingMF]

They'd make more money if they just called it "Cabbage Patch Kids: The Movie"

 

[Marvin]

- I never said 940m. I said in between 930-940m worldwide. Meaning it'll be somewhere in the middle. You do know that counts the money it's made overseas during the weekdays right?

- Boxofficemojo doesn't update the daily overseas numbers like they do the domestic dailies. Full updates don't come until Sunday which includes the gross over the weekend. ScreenDaily however, does report the mid-week numbers for foreign releases every Thursday.

Has BO mojo updated the totals yet? It's Sunday.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

Has BO mojo updated the totals yet? It's Sunday.

941m WW

 

[rashad]

Has BO mojo updated the totals yet? It's Sunday.

WB is reporting $519m after a $15.3m weekend. $941m worldwide.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

That's like Bill O'Reiley thinking God controls the tides. Don't need to get into the inner workings of the moon and gravitational force.

That's because we don't know the inner workings. We don't officially know how much the studios actually takes in because it depends from movie to movie. It's hard to figure out how much a movie takes internationally because there are deals in place for some bigger movies.

 

[Marvin]

WB is reporting $519m after a $15.3m weekend. $941m worldwide.

even more than your prediction, good job.
1billion is more likely it seems. I might pass it's predecessor, but I doubt much else.

 

[rashad]

1 billion is a foregone conclusion at this point. Has been for weeks at the pace it's been on.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

Yep, TDKR has been locked for a billion some time now. There's nothing 'likely' about it. It's guaranteed at this point.

 

[Liam_H]

Its gonna blow past TDK WW total once China and Italy come into play.

 

[Bruce Malone]

The question is no longer a billion it's whether it can get to 1.1b at this point.

 

[mclay18]

I've noticed that our theater will be getting The Avengers back on Friday, presumably for a one- to two-week limited engagement to promote the DVD/Blu-ray release. Disney and Sony did the same thing with Cars 2 and Bad Teacher around the same date last year.

I don't know if it'll be a huge jump, but it might entice people to see it right before it hits home video.

 

[:eek:]

Top 20 worldwide

1. Marvel's The Avengers $1491,8 million
2. The Dark Knight Rises $942,1 million
3. Ice Age: Continental Drift $815,8 million
4. The Amazing Spider-Man $704,9 million
5. The Hunger Games $685 million
6. Men in Black 3 $622 million
7. Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted $582,7 million
8. Brave $442,5 million
9. Snow White and the Huntsman $393,9 million
10. Ted $370,6 million
11. The Intouchables $362,6 million
12. Titanic $343,6 million ($2185,4 million in total)
13. Prometheus $341,1 million
14. Dr. Seuss' The Lorax $335,4 million
15. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island $325,9 million
16. Battleship $302,8 million
17. Wrath of the Titans $302 million
18. John Carter $282,8 million
19. Dark Shadows $236,5 million
20. American Reunion $233,6 million

 

[rashad]

TDKR is at $951m worldwide eek (not counting Tuesday's gross).

Christopher Nolan's final Batman pic, from Warner Bros. and Legendary Entertainment, grossed $4.5 million for a foreign cume of $528.7 million and worldwide total of $951.7.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-report-dark-knight-rises-china-365781