2016 Presidential Third Party Discussion Thread.

[enterthemadness]

Is Gary picking up more of the afterberner vote than Dr Stein?

Think Hillary is getting the most. Then Johnson and Stein are getting a decent amount as well.


Also, Utah ballot access is 1,000 sigs due on the 15th. So, Utah will become 4-way contest with Trump, Clinton, Johnson, McMullen. McMullen is a spoiler for Johnson, who was a spoiler for Trump.

Matt, what do you think Trump will do in Utah? Romney is gonna end up endorsing either McMullen or Johnson. And McMullen just got a Super-PAC today as well.

johnson HQ is in Salt Lake City, UT. And he is spending more time campaigning there with local tv and local radio.

 

[Matt]

McMullen is in the race solely for the purpose of taking votes away from Trump. I really believe that. In fact, I think Romney (or at least the people who were behind Romney) are pushing McMullen. While Johnson may take fiscal conservative votes away from Trump, he does nothing to take social conservative votes. I think that is where McMullen comes in. I firmly believe he is a candidate picked by leaders in the GOP to take votes away from Trump. They are trying to self-sabotage this candidate so they can make a real run at Clinton in 2020 with a real candidate (during which she will be vulnerable for all the reasons she is vulnerable right now).

When it comes down to it, no one is playing spoiler for Johnson. You give Johnson way too much credit. He is not on anyone's radar. He is a fringe candidate with nothing to spoil.

There was a great article on Politico this morning, about how people would be taking the Green Party seriously this election if they acted like real candidates. The same is true for the Libertarian Party. Gary Johnson may have some appeal and be one of their bigger success stories, but the guy is a joke. He treats running for the job that holds our nuke codes like it is a stoner comedy.

This election was a great opportunity for both the Green and Libertarian Party. And they both blew it.

 

[The Incredible Hulk]

The only wacky person running is Trump.

Chicago Tribune calls for Gary Johnson to be in debates.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/...n-libertarian-debate-edit-20160805-story.html

Also seen USAToday and Orlando Sentinel post similar articles.

Johnson is currently at 8.8% in 3 way polling. He hit 10% in a 4 way NBC SurveyMonkey poll out today.He is also at 16% in Utah via Utah Policy Survey out yesterday.

Johnson is a Libertarian. Of course he's wacky. Trump would be better described as being "unhinged"

 

[Kelly]

McMullen is in the race solely for the purpose of taking votes away from Trump. I really believe that. In fact, I think Romney (or at least the people who were behind Romney) are pushing McMullen. While Johnson may take fiscal conservative votes away from Trump, he does nothing to take social conservative votes. I think that is where McMullen comes in. I firmly believe he is a candidate picked by leaders in the GOP to take votes away from Trump. They are trying to self-sabotage this candidate so they can make a real run at Clinton in 2020 with a real candidate (during which she will be vulnerable for all the reasons she is vulnerable right now).

When it comes down to it, no one is playing spoiler for Johnson. You give Johnson way too much credit. He is not on anyone's radar. He is a fringe candidate with nothing to spoil.

There was a great article on Politico this morning, about how people would be taking the Green Party seriously this election if they acted like real candidates. The same is true for the Libertarian Party. Gary Johnson may have some appeal and be one of their bigger success stories, but the guy is a joke. He treats running for the job that holds our nuke codes like it is a stoner comedy.

This election was a great opportunity for both the Green and Libertarian Party. And they both blew it.

That is EXACTLY what McMullen is doing....he is probably getting money from Dems as well as Republicans, Romney will probably throw his support to McMullen.....and I am sure the Republicans have a very nice parting gift for him once he is done.

 

[enterthemadness]

McMullen is in the race solely for the purpose of taking votes away from Trump. I really believe that. In fact, I think Romney (or at least the people who were behind Romney) are pushing McMullen. While Johnson may take fiscal conservative votes away from Trump, he does nothing to take social conservative votes. I think that is where McMullen comes in. I firmly believe he is a candidate picked by leaders in the GOP to take votes away from Trump. They are trying to self-sabotage this candidate so they can make a real run at Clinton in 2020 with a real candidate (during which she will be vulnerable for all the reasons she is vulnerable right now).

When it comes down to it, no one is playing spoiler for Johnson. You give Johnson way too much credit. He is not on anyone's radar. He is a fringe candidate with nothing to spoil.

There was a great article on Politico this morning, about how people would be taking the Green Party seriously this election if they acted like real candidates. The same is true for the Libertarian Party. Gary Johnson may have some appeal and be one of their bigger success stories, but the guy is a joke. He treats running for the job that holds our nuke codes like it is a stoner comedy.

This election was a great opportunity for both the Green and Libertarian Party. And they both blew it.

I don't believe Johnson is a comedy act. Maybe too relaxed, but not a comedy act. The LP also had no one else to nom that media would take seriously. The next two guys were Austin Petersen and John McAfee. Johnson is a two term Gov. So is Weld.

Johnson continues to get media interviews. Not necessary coverage, but he gets invited gor interviews on cable news. Bill Clinton and Gary Johnson will be speaking at a Presidential forum soon. Um, Asian Pacific I think its called.

Johnson is...seeing increase in funds. He has gotten endorsements from GOP members. He is included on Five Thirty Eight.

Of course i give Johnson credit. I'm a supporter and volunteer. I am a dues paying member of the LP. I do agree with you Johnson is a success for the LP, but perhaps nationally he may not be a Perot level success.

I don't follow the Greens that much. I do know CNN will host a Green Party townhall in primetime.

 

[Matt]

I don't believe Johnson is a comedy act. Maybe too relaxed, but not a comedy act. The LP also had no one else to nom that media would take seriously. The next two guys were Austin Petersen and John McAfee. Johnson is a two term Gov. So is Weld.

Johnson continues to get media interviews. Not necessary coverage, but he gets invited gor interviews on cable news. Bill Clinton and Gary Johnson will be speaking at a Presidential forum soon. Um, Asian Pacific I think its called.

Johnson is...seeing increase in funds. He has gotten endorsements from GOP members. He is included on Five Thirty Eight.

Of course i give Johnson credit. I'm a supporter and volunteer. I am a dues paying member of the LP. I do agree with you Johnson is a success for the LP, but perhaps nationally he may not be a Perot level success.

I don't follow the Greens that much. I do know CNN will host a Green Party townhall in primetime.

And there's the problem "I don't think we had anyone else." Then here is a novel idea, rather than running for president and wasting a bunch of money on a campaign, where the best case scenario is 10 %, spend the money on strategically selected House races.

This was the perfect opportunity for the LP to say "look how off the rails the GOP has become, we need real alternatives." They could've won 10-15 House seats in some of these districts with locked in, career Republican Congressmen, where Democrats do not even bother running opposition campaigns. 10-15 seats would've been a HUGE accomplishment. But instead, they would rather waste dues (that you brag about paying) on a failed presidential campaign of a guy who acts like he is baked on 60-****ing-Minutes. If I paid Libertarian Party dues or made donations to the party, I would be pissed. They are squandering your money and your donations by letting someone with no shot use your money to attention ****e rather than trying to build the foundation for a real movement.

 

[enterthemadness]

And there's the problem "I don't think we had anyone else." Then here is a novel idea, rather than running for president and wasting a bunch of money on a campaign, where the best case scenario is 10 %, spend the money on strategically selected House races.

This was the perfect opportunity for the LP to say "look how off the rails the GOP has become, we need real alternatives." They could've won 10-15 House seats in some of these districts with locked in, career Republican Congressmen, where Democrats do not even bother running opposition campaigns. 10-15 seats would've been a HUGE accomplishment. But instead, they would rather waste dues (that you brag about paying) on a failed presidential campaign of a guy who acts like he is baked on 60-****ing-Minutes. If I paid Libertarian Party dues or made donations to the party, I would be pissed. They are squandering your money and your donations by letting someone with no shot use your money to attention ****e rather than trying to build the foundation for a real movement.

Wow, wow, wow. I was not bragging. I was mentioning the fact I give Johnson credit because I am a supporter, volunteer, and dues paying member. Those are facts, not bragging. If i was bragging, I would say how much it was and what not.

I don't think Johnson has been on 60 minutes as of yet acting like he was stoned. He had a laid back goofy interviews on Samantha Bee's Full Frontal on TBS. He seemed to be playing it up cause, well, she's a comedian and it's TBS. Are you referring to that?

As far as I know, the LP has candidates on down ballots.

 

[Matt]

Wow, wow, wow. I was not bragging. I was mentioning the fact I give Johnson credit because I am a supporter, volunteer, and dues paying member. Those are facts, not bragging. If i was bragging, I would say how much it was and what not.

I don't think Johnson has been on 60 minutes as of yet acting like he was stoned. He had a laid back goofy interviews on Samantha Bee's Full Frontal on TBS. He seemed to be playing it up cause, well, she's a comedian and it's TBS. Are you referring to that?

As far as I know, the LP has candidates on down ballots.

My mistake, it wasn't 60 Minutes, it was the CBS Nightly News

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/gary-jo...-i-stopped-using-marijuana-to-be-knife-sharp/

Going on the CBS Nightly News and bragging about your marijuana use but saying you've cut down so you can keep sharp is not exactly going to win over many voters in middle America. I don't even look down upon weed use. Frankly, I partake, on occasion. But this isn't how you run a campaign if you want to be taken seriously. Even the way he talks is off. The stretched out words with odd emphasis on certain words, speaking in, what seems to be, a weird variation of iambic pentameter, as if he were William Shatner. It just doesn't send the image of a credible candidate. Even if everything he says is 100 % accurate, perception matters in politics and Gary Johnson doesn't give off a presidential image.

And yes, there libertarian down ticket candidates, running campaigns with a couple thousand dollars, often using fringe candidates. There is no strategy behind them either. The party just throws **** at the wall and hopes something, somewhere sticks. There needs to be national coordination designed to target strategically selected races and then funding them properly.

Johnson's campaign will probably end up spending in the 5-6 million dollar range when this is all said and done. That could fund about 30 House races. If the party selected races in competitive districts, they could make a splash. Especially this cycle. But instead you will literally burn money on a guy whose best case scenario is 10 %. If you and your fellow Libertarians really do not see how foolish that is, then, well...you're going to remain an after thought in the public's political consciousness.

 

[enterthemadness]

My mistake, it wasn't 60 Minutes, it was the CBS Nightly News

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/gary-jo...-i-stopped-using-marijuana-to-be-knife-sharp/

Going on the CBS Nightly News and bragging about your marijuana use but saying you've cut down so you can keep sharp is not exactly going to win over many voters in middle America. I don't even look down upon weed use. Frankly, I partake, on occasion. But this isn't how you run a campaign if you want to be taken seriously. Even the way he talks is off. The stretched out words with odd emphasis on certain words, speaking in, what seems to be, a weird variation of iambic pentameter, as if he were William Shatner. It just doesn't send the image of a credible candidate. Even if everything he says is 100 % accurate, perception matters in politics and Gary Johnson doesn't give off a presidential image.

And yes, there libertarian down ticket candidates, running campaigns with a couple thousand dollars, often using fringe candidates. There is no strategy behind them either. The party just throws **** at the wall and hopes something, somewhere sticks. There needs to be national coordination designed to target strategically selected races and then funding them properly.

Johnson's campaign will probably end up spending in the 5-6 million dollar range when this is all said and done. That could fund about 30 House races. If the party selected races in competitive districts, they could make a splash. Especially this cycle. But instead you will literally burn money on a guy whose best case scenario is 10 %. If you and your fellow Libertarians really do not see how foolish that is, then, well...you're going to remain an after thought in the public's political consciousness.

The weed issue comes up cause he is honest about it. He also was CEO of a marijuana company, he stepped down from that to run for President.

I think...i think...there's a joint victory fund Johnson started for down ballot candidates. Think it is for ballot access only for them. I recall him donating 150K to it for various state LP campaigns.

 

[Matt]

The weed issue comes up cause he is honest about it. He also was CEO of a marijuana company, he stepped down from that to run for President.

I think...i think...there's a joint victory fund Johnson started for down ballot candidates. Think it is for ballot access only for them. I recall him donating 150K to it for various state LP campaigns.

The fact that the weed issue is so explicitly tied to him that it is going to come up every time he opens his mouth is exactly why your party was shortsighted to nominate him and why you missed your one shot at being taken seriously.

 

[Sithborg]

They didn't exactly have a lot of options...

 

[2kt09]

They didn't exactly have a lot of options...

If you're a staunch Libertarian, that's pretty much it. Matt's exaggerating on the weed to make them remotely as interesting as Hillary's or Trump's campaign right now. I watched a recent CNN interview where the most refreshing thing about Bill and Gary is that they're boring as **** as they explicitly talk about policies & their mentor-student bromance.

Here's the full list of candidates for people wanting to research every single one and show support based on what they decide to believe in.

 

[hippie_hunter]

The fact that the weed issue is so explicitly tied to him that it is going to come up every time he opens his mouth is exactly why your party was shortsighted to nominate him and why you missed your one shot at being taken seriously.

To be fair, Johnson was the best candidate the Libertarians had. I mean seriously look at the other options that they had in the convention. And a lot of people who probably would go Libertarian were very put off with the way party members acted in the convention. I'm honestly surprised that they didn't nominate John McAfee.

 

[enterthemadness]

So, huge news! Two Super-PACS are coming through with tv and radio ads!

http://reason.com/blog/2016/08/11/gary-johnson-supporting-pacs-ready-tv-ad

A newly launched PAC supporting the Libertarian Party's presidential ticket of former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson and former Massachusetts Gov. William Weld is ready to run a TV ad starting today (as well as a radio one) in the state of Maine's 2nd congressional district.

TV AD

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2Y9NOXhZyg


Radio AD

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hwNFT47afNE

The below ad from PurplePac, the PAC run by Cato Institute co-founder Edward Crane, Crane said in an email this morning might run on Fox this Sunday. In general, "Nothing more planned until I get some money" though Crane believes that if Johnson can indeed get in the presidential debates that big money will flow.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JlhG4a0anE0


And a Politico article on the first PAC wit the Maine ads.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/gary-johnson-ads-maine-226911

The group that placed the reservations on Wednesday, America Deserves Better PAC, is set to spend at least $65,000 on the Maine airwaves, beginning on Friday and running through August 26.

I want to say...there's 4 or 5 Super-PACS for Johnson/Weld now.

As for Green Party, CNN is throwing some love via a townhall this upcoming Wed!

8/17 at 9PM. Stein/Baraka

 

[enterthemadness]

To be fair, Johnson was the best candidate the Libertarians had. I mean seriously look at the other options that they had in the convention. And a lot of people who probably would go Libertarian were very put off with the way party members acted in the convention. I'm honestly surprised that they didn't nominate John McAfee.

McAfee certainly was entertaining. If Johnson didn't run, it would had come down to Petersen and McAfee and I think eventually a Petersen/McAfee or McAfee/Petersen ticket. But I think either one would be pulling Green Party numbers of 1-7% nationally. Not the 5-13% for the Johnson/Weld ticket.

 

[enterthemadness]

Johnson's campaign will probably end up spending in the 5-6 million dollar range.

Gary Johnson steps up fundraising in August.


http://www.wsj.com/articles/gary-johnsons-campaign-steps-up-its-fundraising-1471391151

Gary raised more than $2.9M already in August. That is more than is entire 2012 campaign total of around $2.3M. His last FEC filing has him at $1.4M so far in the election cycle raised, and that is from June. July's report will be due soon, but he has already surpassed $4.1M raised. So, Matt...he won't spend 5-6 million...but 10-12M+ and raised around $15 at this rate.

In other news, a Johnson/Weld SUPER-PAC is threatening to unleash the IRS on the Commission on Presidential Debates.

Then, the hammer is threatened:


Absent your timely addressing the problem of the opinion polling criterion, we are inclined to make a referral to the
Internal Revenue Service about whether your Commission has violated the limitations on political activity applicable to tax-exempt charitable organizations and perhaps to seek immediate equitable relief in courts of competent jurisdiction

http://reason.com/blog/2016/08/15/johnsonweld-superpac-threatens-the-commi

And last, the 5 polls came out this week that determine the 15% for 3rd parties.

The polls are ABC-Washington Post; CBS-New York Times; CNN-Opinion Research Corporation; Fox News; and NBC-Wall Street Journal.

So, Gary Johnson is around 10% in those 5 polls...and he got 11% yesterday in a National NBC poll! But, sadly, it was NBC-Survey Monkey, not NBC-WSJ.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/08/15/media/commission-on-presidential-debates-polls/

FOX News will also begin 4 way polling as well.

 

[Thundercrack85]

You guys see that poll showing Jill Stein trailing behind Deez Nuts? Seriously.

 

[enterthemadness]

You guys see that poll showing Jill Stein trailing behind Deez Nuts? Seriously.

Yep. It was a Texas poll. Johnson got 6% in that poll. Stein got 2%.

Johnson has been hosting rallies lately. In Miami a few days ago, think it was Thursday, he drew over 500 people. Fire Marshal had to turn away people cause that was a sell out crowd. Gary then addressed those people outside for 15 minutes, then started his rally inside. Yesterday he had one in New Meixco. Look similar size.

 

[enterthemadness]

Johnson offered Romney a role in his administration. Yesterday. Any pick as well.


That's how you go after a endorsement. And that's how you continue to do well in Utah.

 

[enterthemadness]

Johnson and Stein have already out raised their 2012 campaigns.

Stein did over $800K in 2012. Right now through July, she is at over $1.8M.

Johnson did over $2.3M in 2012. He is at over $2.9M through July. And he has already raised over $3M in August so far.

 

[enterthemadness]

Purple PAC will spend $1M on a national tv ad buy. This Friday til next Thursday.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/24/politics/libertarian-ad-gary-johnson/

Reason reports it will air 25 times on CNN and FOX each. But from Friday to Monday. Assume they mean FOX News.

 

[enterthemadness]

Gary Johnson is making a radio buy.


http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/gary-johnson-ads-battleground-states-227459

The new ad spending is the first indication of where Johnson is hoping to compete in the coming weeks. The former New Mexico governor’s campaign is spending $806,195 this month on radio ads in Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah and Wisconsin, according to a media buying source.

Also in other news...

Evan McMullin missed four state ballots.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/evan-mcmullin-on-minnesota-ballot-227400

But he made it onto Virginia for a total of 8 state ballots he will be on now.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box...rty-mcmullin-gets-enough-signatures-to-get-on

And this one below is a great article on states he missed and the few he could still get back on via lawsuits and various minor 3rd parties dumping their nominees for him. Still..the best he may be able to do is 190 EC votes. And the party/SuperPac backing him folded. Ouch.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-mcmullin-has-no-clear-path-to-ballot-access/

 

[enterthemadness]

In terms of ballot access.

LP's Johnson/Weld. 46+ D.C On track for all 50.

https://www.lp.org/2016-presidential-ballot-access-map

Green party's Stein/Baraka 38+ D.C On track for a bit over 40 it seems. Believe the 38 includes the 3 states that are write in campaigns.

http://www.gp.org/ballotaccess

Constitution Party's Darrell Castle. 26 states ballots, this includes two write in's. More write-ins may be on the way in many more states.

https://www.constitutionparty.com/get-involved/election-central/ballot-access/

 

[Matt Mortem]

If this election was Clinton v a sane Republican I'd be inclined to do a protest third party vote, but given I'm fairly liberal I'd be left with Jill Stein who's absolutely nuts.

 

[2kt09]

"Fairly liberal" and I am to insinuate you're settling with Hillary...good joke!

Gary, on the other hand, was a lot more reserved back in '12, but after the last couple weeks, I simply can't go Libertarian this year.
i might consider Jill after all 20+ or so other candidates don't stack up.