"300" Box Office Prediction Thread

[Advanced Dark]

<H2 class=entry-header>EXCLUSIVE EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES: 'Turtles' w/$34.5 million; Spartan 2nd; 'Shooter' w/$15.3 mil; 'Hills 2' w/$10.6; 'Mimzy' 6th; 'Reign' 8th

by Steve Mason

March 23, 2007

The all new super-charged computer-animated Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (Warner Bros) is off to an explosive start at the box office with a staggering $9.7 million on opening day, and as much as an estimated $34.5 million for its opening 3-day weekend. TMNT will coast to an easy weekend win battling past 5 other new films entering the marketplace, along with the third weekend for 300 (Warner Bros). My studio sources are telling me that the Ninja Turtles had a huge matinee turnout, then Under 25’s kept theatres packed for evening shows.

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These early numbers are based on raw data from east coast matinees, which is then compared to early numbers from comparable films. Studios revise their numbers all weekend, and as more data comes in, projections, naturally, become more accurate.
Second place for the weekend will go to 300 with a $5.25 million Friday, which should translate to a $16.4 million weekend. Shooter (Paramount), starring Mark Wahlberg, is a huge disappointment to Paramount, which has invested heavily in Antoine Fuqua’s thriller. Shooter generated $5 million on opening day and will score an estimated $15.4 million for weekend. If the numbers hold up, it will be only the 8th-best opening of Wahlberg’s career.
1. Planet of the Apes - $68.5 million
2. The Perfect Storm - $41.3 million
3. The Departed - $26.8 million
4. Four Brothers - $21.1 million
5. The Italian Job - $19.4 million
6. Invincible - $17 million
7. Three Kings - $15.8 million
8. Shooter - $15.4 million
The lackluster performance will dampen some of the momentum that Wahlberg might have had coming off of his Oscar-nominated role in The Departed.
Another holdover Wild Hogs (Buena Vista) will finish 4th for the weekend with $13.6 million followed by The Hills Have Eyes 2 (Fox Atomic) with a relatively soft $10.6 million. New Line’s The Last Mimzy, directed by studio chief Robert Schaye, will likely finish 6th with an estimated $10.2 million. That’s not bad considering that the film was scoring zeroes in industry tracking as recently as 3 weeks ago. Premonition (Sony) is taking a major second week tumble with a projected $8 million. Reign Over Me (Sony) with $7.3 million and Pride (Lionsgate) with just $4 million both trail the field.
EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM ROUGH EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
-as of 10p pacific on Friday, 3/23-
1. TMNT (Warner Bros) - $9.7 million
2. 300 (Warner Bros) - $5.25 million
3. Shooter (Paramount) - $5 million
4. Wild Hogs (Buena Vista) - $3.8 million
4. The Hills Have Eyes 2 (Fox Atomic) - $ 3.8 million
6. The Last Mimzy (New Line) - $3 million
7. Premonition (Sony) - $2.8 million
8. Reign Over Me (Sony) - $2.5 million
9. Pride (Lionsgate) - $1.5 million
10. Bridge To Terabithia (Buena Vista) - $1 million
EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM ROUGH EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
-as of 10p pacific on Friday, 3/23-
1. TMNT (Warner Bros) - $34.5 million
2. 300 (Warner Bros) - $16.4 million
3. Shooter (Paramount) - $15.3 million
4. Wild Hogs (Buena Vista) - $13.6 million
5. The Hills Have Eyes 2 (Fox Atomic) - $10.6 million
6. The Last Mimzy (New Line) - $10.2 million
7. Premonition (Sony) - $8 million
8. Reign Over Me (Sony) - $7.3 million
9. Pride (Lionsgate) - $4 million
10. Bridge To Terabithia (Buena Vista) - $2.75 million

</H2>
Update from fantasy moguls.

 

[Darth Elektra]

BOM reports 300 made $6,000,000 on Friday.

300 made $45,555,327 for all of last week.

 

[TheLegendLives]

I got kicked out of the movie...Long story, but I got into a fight with this fat chick and her girlfriend...She was in the wrong theatre for an hour t:

 

[GL's Light]

Box Office Mojo's weekend estimate:

300 at # 2 with $ 20.51 million (- 37.6%) for $ 162.354 million domestic to date.

 

[Advanced Dark]

300 is holding up really well. This it the best news ever for R rated action films. Studios will think twice now before giving into a PG-13 rating like AVP & Riddick. Blah.

 

[Darth Elektra]

Box Office Mojo's weekend estimate:

300 at # 2 with $ 20.51 million (- 37.6%) for $ 162.354 million domestic to date.

Wow, thats great!

Shooter didnt make much

300 is holding up really well. This it the best news ever for R rated action films. Studios will think twice now before giving into a PG-13 rating like AVP & Riddick. Blah.

t: Thats the best thing I've heard today.

 

[echostation]

After two weeks on top of the charts, the Spartan war epic 300 dropped to second place but still held up well despite the onslaught of new films. The Warner Bros. blockbuster fell by only 38% to an estimated $20.5M and lifted its cume to a staggering $162.4M after 17 days. The R-rated smash now looks likely to reach the $200M mark domestically - a level no March film has ever reached before.

Overseas, 300 dominated the marketplace with its invasion of the U.K. and several key European countries with a colossal $48M from 33 markets with 5,000 prints. That pushed the international total to $79M and the global gross to $241M. 300 should dominate the spring box office worldwide and could go on to surpass $500M.

 

[Nivek]

I figured Turtles would beat it based on the family factor, but 300 is a damn Monster. It's still bringing people back! How are the Imax showings going?

 

[Darth Elektra]

After two weeks on top of the charts, the Spartan war epic 300 dropped to second place but still held up well despite the onslaught of new films. The Warner Bros. blockbuster fell by only 38% to an estimated $20.5M and lifted its cume to a staggering $162.4M after 17 days. The R-rated smash now looks likely to reach the $200M mark domestically - a level no March film has ever reached before.

Overseas, 300 dominated the marketplace with its invasion of the U.K. and several key European countries with a colossal $48M from 33 markets with 5,000 prints. That pushed the international total to $79M and the global gross to $241M. 300 should dominate the spring box office worldwide and could go on to surpass $500M.

t: t:

 

[Strong Guy]

So how much has the movie grossed?

 

[Darth Elektra]

So how much has the movie grossed?

States:
$162,354,000
Overseas:
$79,000,000

 

[Strong Guy]

So i guess the movie has just taken over the highest grossing movie of early 2007 from Ghost Rider.

 

[blind_fury]

Ghost Rider will end up with a 100 million dollar profit WW.

In other news, 300 is looking at a 450 million dollar profit WW.

 

[echostation]

it's funny how 300 will be making more than WB's "marquee" franchise Superman Returns

 

[matrix_ghost]

300 is holding up really well. This it the best news ever for R rated action films. Studios will think twice now before giving into a PG-13 rating like AVP & Riddick. Blah.

I doubt even with a R rating , AvP or for that matter Riddick would be big hits. 300 is a special case because it's visuals draws the audience more. Besides swords & sandals pics do seem to perform well WW.
AvP and Riddick just seem too geeky for a mass audience. At least that's the impression i got from alot of people who saw the movies

I liked both Riddick & AvP. Riddick especially because the visual style of that movie was quite awesome.

 

[matrix_ghost]

it's funny how 300 will be making more than WB's "marquee" franchise Superman Returns

That's because it delivers on something that SR sorely lacked. Action
I admit that i overhyped myself for 300 and even then i was very satisfied with what i got.

 

[matrix_ghost]

Ghost Rider will end up with a 100 million dollar profit WW.

In other news, 300 is looking at a 450 million dollar profit WW.

Explain yourself in both cases
If anything Ghost Rider will hit between 200-250 WW.
Without the complex calculations of just how much specific percentages theatre owners get , the general approx. is that they get around 50 % of the WW gross. Subtract the budget from that and then you have a estimation of the profit. With 250 WW , Ghost Rider will have a profit of 35 million.

300 on the other hand is looking at a 180 million profit ( assuming it'll hit 500 WW)

 

[blind_fury]

I doubt even with a R rating , AvP or for that matter Riddick would be big hits. 300 is a special case because it's visuals draws the audience more. Besides swords & sandals pics do seem to perform well WW.
AvP and Riddick just seem too geeky for a mass audience. At least that's the impression i got from alot of people who saw the movies

I liked both Riddick & AvP. Riddick especially because the visual style of that movie was quite awesome.

Sci-fi movies are all about execution. Adjusted for inflation Alien made 240 million in the US. Worldwide it would've made at least the same bringing it's total to around 500 million.

If AvP was directed by Ridley Scott, James Cameron, or Mel Gibson and had space marines fighting an Alien infestation on a futuristic Earth it could've made alot more money. People like Paul WS Anderson just make movies for the lowest common denominator. They just make forgettable trash to make a quick buck. You can't base a franchise's potential on a lame hack's interpretation.

 

[blind_fury]

Explain yourself in both cases
If anything Ghost Rider will hit between 200-250 WW.
Without the complex calculations of just how much specific percentages theatre owners get , the general approx. is that they get around 50 % of the WW gross. Subtract the budget from that and then you have a estimation of the profit. With 250 WW , Ghost Rider will have a profit of 35 million.

300 on the other hand is looking at a 180 million profit ( assuming it'll hit 500 WW)

Subtract Ghost Riders budget (110 m) from it's estimated worldwide gross (210) and you get 100 million profit. Divide that in half and you get 50 million. But it's pointless dividing the box office profit in half because after you add global dvd sales and tv/cable/pay-per-view rights the profits go right back up to 100 million.

Subtract "300"s budget (65 m) from it's predicted worldwide gross (500 m) and you get 435 m profit. Divide that in half and you get 210 million But after you add global dvd sales and tv/cable/pay-per-view rights the profits go back up to 400+ million.

Either way it would take four Ghost Rider movies to make the same as "300".

 

[Nivek]

300 without a doubt has a higher profit margin than Ghost Rider. WB must be loving the returns on this flick!

 

[Fanticon]

Riddick especially because the visual style of that movie was quite awesome.

agree to the highest degree.

 

[Darth Elektra]

Around the World Roundup:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=2280&p=.htm

 

[GL's Light]

Here's the actual from BOM:

$ 19,862,491 (- 39.6%) for a total to date of $ 161,706,146.

 

[Darth Elektra]

300 is back on top!!!

300 made $1,818,247 on monday!
TMNT came in secont with $1,428,373.

 

[Nivek]

300 is back on top!!!

300 made $1,818,247 on monday!
TMNT came in secont with $1,428,373.

Wha?

Sheesh, didn't see that happening, thats pretty bad a$$!!! I'm sorry, 300 once again in the U.S. is #1!