Probably a little bit early for this thread, but I want to create this because I really like the 1st one and find that this film will probably suffer the most due to the over-saturation of CBM next year. Its box office run will be fun to track if we can keep the discussion of other films' effects on it.
We don't exactly have a CBM every other week next year (though it's close) but there're 10 CBMs with released dates:
1. Black Panther 2/16/18
2. New Mutants 4/13/18
3. Avengers: Infinity War 5/4/18
4. Deadpool 2 6/1/18
5. The Incredibles 2 6/15/18
6. Ant-Man and the Wasp 7/6/18
7. Venom 10/5/18
8. Dark Phoenix 11/2/18
9. Animated Spider-Man 12/14/18
10. Aquaman 12/21/18
So before AMatW hits in mid-summer the market has already had 4 live action CBM that can accumulate over 1.1B domestic: BP 250M+, New Mutants 150M, IW 400M+, Deadpool 300M+ (all except New Mutants can make considerably more: BP can draw an under-served demo and break out with 300M+similar to WW, IW and Deadpool can totally make around 475M and 375M, respectively, that means 1.3B spent on live action CBM before AMatW).
That hasn't mentioned The Incredibles 2, which (imo of course), if gets good review, can bring near 500M to Pixar like Dory last year (another sequel to 13-year-old 380M-adjusted childhood beloved movie). Incredibles, which is in its 4th weekend on AMatW's opening weekend, will definitely eat into the kid/ family demo of Ant-Man, which is the most kid-friendly sub-franchise in the MCU along with the GotG movies.
Direct competition with AMatW include:
- The Incredibles (3 weeks prior)
- Jurassic World sequel (2 weeks prior)
- Purge sequel (same weekend)
- Hotel Transylvania (1 week after)
- Mission Impossible 6 (3 weeks after)
So obviously competition with AMatW will mostly come before release. Currently my prediction is 70M OW, 170-200M, which is surely subjected to change when we have more news and teaser/ trailers.
Edit: About the poll options, I keep it that way so people can put a closer-range prediction which is more meaningful, and I find it hard for the film to make outside of the 300M-800M range. If some want 200M-300M, 800M-900M etc added I will ask mod to edit it.
We don't exactly have a CBM every other week next year (though it's close) but there're 10 CBMs with released dates:
1. Black Panther 2/16/18
2. New Mutants 4/13/18
3. Avengers: Infinity War 5/4/18
4. Deadpool 2 6/1/18
5. The Incredibles 2 6/15/18
6. Ant-Man and the Wasp 7/6/18
7. Venom 10/5/18
8. Dark Phoenix 11/2/18
9. Animated Spider-Man 12/14/18
10. Aquaman 12/21/18
So before AMatW hits in mid-summer the market has already had 4 live action CBM that can accumulate over 1.1B domestic: BP 250M+, New Mutants 150M, IW 400M+, Deadpool 300M+ (all except New Mutants can make considerably more: BP can draw an under-served demo and break out with 300M+similar to WW, IW and Deadpool can totally make around 475M and 375M, respectively, that means 1.3B spent on live action CBM before AMatW).
That hasn't mentioned The Incredibles 2, which (imo of course), if gets good review, can bring near 500M to Pixar like Dory last year (another sequel to 13-year-old 380M-adjusted childhood beloved movie). Incredibles, which is in its 4th weekend on AMatW's opening weekend, will definitely eat into the kid/ family demo of Ant-Man, which is the most kid-friendly sub-franchise in the MCU along with the GotG movies.
Direct competition with AMatW include:
- The Incredibles (3 weeks prior)
- Jurassic World sequel (2 weeks prior)
- Purge sequel (same weekend)
- Hotel Transylvania (1 week after)
- Mission Impossible 6 (3 weeks after)
So obviously competition with AMatW will mostly come before release. Currently my prediction is 70M OW, 170-200M, which is surely subjected to change when we have more news and teaser/ trailers.
Edit: About the poll options, I keep it that way so people can put a closer-range prediction which is more meaningful, and I find it hard for the film to make outside of the 300M-800M range. If some want 200M-300M, 800M-900M etc added I will ask mod to edit it.
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