Sci-Fi Avatar: The Way Of Water

[StormC]

I don't think many are expecting it to make as much as the first.

I don't think it will even crack 2 billion. But we'll see if Cameron can pull a hat trick.

...assuming the movies ever come out, anyway.

 

[Iceman]

I don't think it will even crack 2 billion. But we'll see if Cameron can pull a hat trick.

...assuming the movies ever come out, anyway.

But that is also what most people expect, haha. $2B isn't nailed on for any film, even Star Wars.

 

[StormC]

But that is also what most people expect, haha. $2B isn't nailed on for any film, even Star Wars.

I had people on this forum telling me I was crazy for saying that and that Cameron can turn water into wine, so yeah.

 

[Iceman]

I had people on this forum telling me I was crazy for saying that and that Cameron can turn water into wine, so yeah.

Avatar sequels could do anything but just a change in US exchange rates could turn a $1.5B overseas haul into $0.9B. You need nearly everything to fall in line to get over a mark like $2B. It's of course possible but I doubt many of these guys would stake their house on it happening (although I'm sure they'd be able to stake it on it getting a lower figure). We'll have to see what the first footage looks like it when it arrives and then we'll be able to make some more sensible guesses. As it stands, with the freakish nature of the performance of the first and the life age of the earth between the first and second, I think this is one of the hardest to predict films out there.

 

[Bruce Malone]

I don't think it will even crack 2 billion. But we'll see if Cameron can pull a hat trick.

...assuming the movies ever come out, anyway.

A lot of people don't realize Avatar 1 made 2 billion purely in overseas gross. The other 700 million+ came from NA. This was at a time when the OS markets weren't as big as well.

Even if there's a huge domestic drop it can more than make up for that overseas.

 

[InCali]

But that is also what most people expect, haha. $2B isn't nailed on for any film, even Star Wars.

If I had to guess, I'd say TLJ won't crack 2B. It "could", but if I had to bet on it.....Same with Avengers 4.

 

[Iceman]

If I had to guess, I'd say TLJ won't crack 2B. It "could", but if I had to bet on it.....Same with Avengers 4.

Yeah, TLJ/EpIX, IW/A4 and the Avatar sequels are the films with the best chances of breaking the $2B barrier but I don't think any of them are guaranteed to do it. It takes so much momentum to achieve it that the final figures can end up totally out of control when something freakishly breaks out though.

 

[Iceman]

A lot of people don't realize Avatar 1 made 2 billion purely in overseas gross. The other 700 million+ came from NA. This was at a time when the OS markets weren't as big as well.

Even if there's a huge domestic drop it can more than make up for that overseas.

All true. It's just that first time magic that can't be replicated and in Avatar's case what seemed like a once-in-a-generation huge step in film technology. I think the sequels will just be very big films without being able to really pin down where they'll finish unlike the out of control juggernaut that Avatar was. Another example, a Titanic sequel might also do really well but I don't think it would be anything near the first (after inflation anyway, and even with the benefit of a much bigger overseas market). Those 2 were freaks first time out unlike something like Avengers which was just a huge film where that success was easier to replicate (although I don't think AoU quite managed to).

 

[StormC]

A lot of people don't realize Avatar 1 made 2 billion purely in overseas gross. The other 700 million+ came from NA. This was at a time when the OS markets weren't as big as well.

Even if there's a huge domestic drop it can more than make up for that overseas.

What were exchange rates like in 2009, though?

 

[Bruce Malone]

What wereexchange rates like in 2009, though?

Not sure but the international markets explosion and China really came about the last 5 years or so.

I think China alone has exponentially more theaters now than in 2009-10. And they were at least then pretty Avatar crazy.

If F8 can do almost 400 million in China alone Avatar 2 could potentially double that.

 

[regnak]

Well the US economy was in the depths of severe recession in 2009. Ergo the exchange rates were likely very low. Every year we hear about how a movie selling more tickets than another (CW vs IM3 & GOTG2 vs GOTG) yet making less money due to exchange rates.

So unless Cameron holds out for another recession I am betting the same will apply to Avatar 2.

 

[:eek:]

$2 billion is still very hard to reach. Apart from the two movies that got there in their original run only Titanic so far got close to that milestone (all the way back in 1997-1998, a reminder that Titanic remains the biggest box office phenomenon in modern times). Even reaching $1,5 billion isn't easy. No movie this year so far. As for something like Avengers 4 reaching $2 billion... forget it. Perhaps it's not strange on a site like this, but you see people overestimating the popularity of superhero-movies all the time. I remember comments that the first Spider-Man would beat Titanic. Some thought Batman v Superman would make $2 billion. And so on.

 

[Iceman]

True, but you also see plenty of underestimating. Egs Avengers, Guardians, TDK, Wonder Woman, Deadpool.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

What were exchange rates like in 2009, though?

A lot better. This came up with TFA, which lost quite a bit too Avatar because exchange rates overseas. We saw this again with GotGV2, which lost quite a bit in overseas revenue do to exchange rates being worse now then in 2014.

 

[StormC]

I hope we get another recession so that Infinity War cracks 2 billion.

 

[:eek:]

True, but you also see plenty of underestimating. Egs Avengers, Guardians, TDK, Wonder Woman, Deadpool.

The first movie in a franchise is obviously more often trickier to predict. As for The Dark Knight there were some special circumstances like Heath Ledger's death.

 

[Iceman]

The first movie in a franchise is obviously more often trickier to predict. As for The Dark Knight there were some special circumstances like Heath Ledger's death.

Yeah, but you mentioned Spider-man and BvS which have that same unpredictability. It's not just overestimating that happens in the box office threads, underestimating seems to be as common and more accepted.

 

[Bruce Malone]

$2 billion is still very hard to reach. Apart from the two movies that got there in their original run only Titanic so far got close to that milestone (all the way back in 1997-1998, a reminder that Titanic remains the biggest box office phenomenon in modern times). Even reaching $1,5 billion isn't easy. No movie this year so far. As for something like Avengers 4 reaching $2 billion... forget it. Perhaps it's not strange on a site like this, but you see people overestimating the popularity of superhero-movies all the time. I remember comments that the first Spider-Man would beat Titanic. Some thought Batman v Superman would make $2 billion. And so on.

On this very site right before Avatar came out I was personally predicting it would bomb and then it made 2.7 billion...

I just can't bet against Cameron at this point.

2 billion is hard to get to but before Avatar 1 made 2.7 billion, Titanic was still the highest grossing movie ever at 1.8 billion.

All Cameron does is shatter expectations. The Asian market will eat up Avatar 4.

 

[Kane52630]

CCH Pounder to Return for ‘Avatar’ Sequels

http://variety.com/2017/film/news/cch-pounder-avatar-sequels-1202504338/

 

[redhawk23]

On this very site right before Avatar came out I was personally predicting it would bomb and then it made 2.7 billion...

I just can't bet against Cameron at this point.

2 billion is hard to get to but before Avatar 1 made 2.7 billion, Titanic was still the highest grossing movie ever at 1.8 billion.

All Cameron does is shatter expectations. The Asian market will eat up Avatar 4.

What's crazy is that the first film made so much money that even if each sequel has a disasterous 50% drop from the one before it they will still end up making massive amounts of money.

Just as a speculation: Avatar 2 $1.3 billion dollars. Avatar 3 650 million dollars. Avatar 4 300 million.

And that kind of drop is a worst case scenario.

 

[dark_b]

‘Avatar’ Sequels Progress to Next Level as Weta Digital Begins Visual Effects Work
http://variety.com/2017/artisans/ne...s-work-on-the-films-james-cameron-1202510639/

 

[mclay18]

So Fox is pouring $1 billion into four movies, $250M per flick. Whatever happened to Cameron claiming he could make the films "faster and cheaper"?

 

[Kane52630]

So Fox is pouring $1 billion into four movies, $250M per flick. Whatever happened to Cameron claiming he could make the films "faster and cheaper"?

 

[mclay18]

I could've sworn I read an interview with Cameron where he said he would be able to make the films for $150M apiece.

 

[terry78]

Lies. But beautiful lies.