BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - Part 1

[Loden Greatstorm]

There is no way this doesn't cross the 1 billion mark.

 

[Jumpman]

It will technically matter. WB still likes the 2/3 of the cash that comes after the opening weekend. Better to get all the cash rather than a bit of it. Or they could pull it on the Sunday. t: And domestic numbers are more important than overseas not only because they are more directly comparable (while overseas are heavily dependant on the exchange rate of the time), the studio also keeps a much bigger perecentage of the gross. But agreed that AoU's opening is irrelevant. They just have to do well on their own terms.

Civil War is too far away now to have that much of an impact. When they were coming out in the same weekend it would have been a disaster (for both) but now it shouldn't be the end of the world. BvS will have made most of its money by then.

Yes they want to make a killing to get their shared universe off the ground. The measure of a normal film making a billion dollars doesn't make sense but for a behemoth like future Avengers & Justice League films, Star Wars films and even Batman solos it is relevant. For AoU for eg $1B would be a disappointment and hopefully we'll be able to say the same for the JLs once BvS has made it's billion.

You say that when those films hit (IM3 and GotG2 in future) it ruined/will ruin expectations but those are based on real numbers. What else should the expectations of future comparable films be based on?

If it was an unqualified success you wouldn't need the caveat of home video sales, that itself is the qualification. I don't want to need to talk about blu-ray sales when BvS figures come out as that means there probably isn't that much to get excited about from its box office numbers (which I don't believe will be the case). I'm note expecting it to go miles over a billion but a billion is not an unrealstic target given what Batman himself has achieved in his last 2 outings and what lesser properties have acheived worldwide recently.

All I'm getting at is that a billion dollar box office is the problem with the entire system.

If a film is made for 200 million, which includes the marketing budget and yet the studio expects for it to make a billion dollar to be qualified as a success, that's just ridiculous. And I think we're at that point with blockbuster cinema. Cut the budgets down a bit and the marketing budget and a billion doesn't have to be the pathway to success with these films.

 

[Jekecy]

If a film is made for 200 million, which includes the marketing budget and yet the studio expects for it to make a billion dollar to be qualified as a success, that's just ridiculous.

While you're not wrong, that's not really a hypothetical that has ever happened. I don't even think we're close to that point, unless you can name some examples.

With marketing included, most of these blockbusters have a budget approaching or exceeding 300 million. Even then, most (if not all) cases would be considered successes if they had 600+ million worldwide.

 

[Iceman]

All I'm getting at is that a billion dollar box office is the problem with the entire system.

If a film is made for 200 million, which includes the marketing budget and yet the studio expects for it to make a billion dollar to be qualified as a success, that's just ridiculous. And I think we're at that point with blockbuster cinema. Cut the budgets down a bit and the marketing budget and a billion doesn't have to be the pathway to success with these films.

That billion dollar standard only applies to a tiny handful of films, (most of which haven't even happened yet). BvS happens to be one of them. And bear in mind the total costs for a film like this is usally a fair amount more than that when you take everything into account, usually they are referring to only the production budget. And also half of the US gross goes to compensating the other costs of distribution like cinema chains, everyone has to make their cut. Outside of the US it is lower than 50% and was quite recently as low as 20% in China. So a billion dollar gross might get you only a bit over $400m back (depending on domestic/overseas/Chinese split) BEFORE trying to cover your production and marketing budget.

I don't know why any less than a billion for BvS would be considered a success when the last 2 films with just Batman did $1B a long time ago (with years of inflation in between) before overseas markets had expanded so much. The billon dollar target is relevant here and not so with nearly every other film. Even films like DofP, TWS, GotG etc were never expected to get $1B. And the X-franchise has been around since 2000. You'll hear it with Avengers films, Transformers films, Harry Potters, Star Wars etc but the vast majority won't be targeting that figure at all.

 

[mclay18]

I can imagine the headlines if WB pushed BVS back a week to April 1. The press wouldn't pass up headline titles like 'No April Fools Joke: 'Batman v. Superman' smashes April opening record'.

 

[fake]

Looks like earning a Billion dollars WW just got much tougher recently. TF4 earned 1.2B WW in July, however if it was released today, it would end up with 995M. Same thing happened to Hobbit 3, it earned more than Hobbit 2 in every single country, but its final WW total ended up being around 5M lower than Hobbit 2.

The reason for this is that the dollar has strengthened a lot against basically every single currency in the world since July 2014, here is a chart showing it

Basically, to earn 1B WW, movies now need to make what would have been 1.2B WW just 6 months ago.

 

[Rocketman]

It'll go past a billion. Let's not be silly.

 

[GreenKToo]

750/800 on the low side ( if its bad )
1 billion + if it's as good as we all hope it is.
and a 200 mill (+) opening weekend. I fully expect the opening weekend to be near a record or break it.

 

[fake]

750/800 on the low side ( if its bad )
1 billion + if it's as good as we all hope it is.
and a 200 mill (+) opening weekend. I fully expect the opening weekend to be near a record or break it.

200M OW will be really tough since it is an Easter opening. Easter Sunday is an awful day for box office. The best case scenario is a March OW record and maybe 180M or so (30-35M midnights, 50M Friday, 60M Saturday, 35M Sunday).

 

[Pickleweasel]

750/800 on the low side ( if its bad )
1 billion + if it's as good as we all hope it is.
and a 200 mill (+) opening weekend. I fully expect the opening weekend to be near a record or break it.

With a 200 mil + opening weekend even a ****** multiplier would get it 500 mil domestically so you are predicting it will get 250-300 mil foreign if it is bad?

 

[Iceman]

It'll go past a billion. Let's not be silly.

He's just saying now it will have to go past the equivalent of $1.2B or whatever the average $US currency appreciation vs major box office country rates since July 2014 multipled by total $US value of foreign box office. The big change in the euro/dollar rate is definitely going to make a big difference. I think it'll still do it but it might be closer than it would have been (unless of course rates revert to July 14 levels)

 

[Marvin]

I'm more curious if the justice league movie will outgross the BvS one. For if it doesn't that's the next harping point.

 

[dnno1]

Looks like earning a Billion dollars WW just got much tougher recently. TF4 earned 1.2B WW in July, however if it was released today, it would end up with 995M. Same thing happened to Hobbit 3, it earned more than Hobbit 2 in every single country, but its final WW total ended up being around 5M lower than Hobbit 2.

The reason for this is that the dollar has strengthened a lot against basically every single currency in the world since July 2014, here is a chart showing it

Basically, to earn 1B WW, movies now need to make what would have been 1.2B WW just 6 months ago.

That's this years trend. We don't know if these numbers will be the same next year when the film releases.

 

[GreenKToo]

With a 200 mil + opening weekend even a ****** multiplier would get it 500 mil domestically so you are predicting it will get 250-300 mil foreign if it is bad?

no, i'm saying the opening will be huge because people will want to see something they've never seen before. batman and supes together.
If its bad it will drop off quickly and crawl to 750/800 mill, maybe a bit more...
if its great, it will keep climbing and climbing to over a billion.
spidey 3 had a pretty good opening weekend also even tho it was horrible ( 151 mill ow ) I think it had around 800/900 mill it's final take.

so even if BvS is bad ( which I dont believe ) I see it doing no worse than 750/800 mill, which is pretty darn good.

we will just have to watch the ow b.o. take. It may be less than I think, or, it could meet what I think it will do. we shall see.

 

[Pickleweasel]

no, i'm saying the opening will be huge because people will want to see something they've never seen before. batman and supes together.
If its bad it will drop off quickly and crawl to 750/800 mill, maybe a bit more...
if its great, it will keep climbing and climbing to over a billion.
spidey 3 had a pretty good opening weekend also even tho it was horrible ( 151 mill ow ) I think it had around 800/900 mill it's final take.

so even if BvS is bad ( which I dont believe ) I see it doing no worse than 750/800 mill, which is pretty darn good.

we will just have to watch the ow b.o. take. It may be less than I think, or, it could meet what I think it will do. we shall see.

Your numbers don't make sense though if it has an opening weekend of 200 mil there is a 0% chance it crawls to 750 mil unless it has far and away the worst drop off of all time

 

[Pickleweasel]

Looks like earning a Billion dollars WW just got much tougher recently. TF4 earned 1.2B WW in July, however if it was released today, it would end up with 995M. Same thing happened to Hobbit 3, it earned more than Hobbit 2 in every single country, but its final WW total ended up being around 5M lower than Hobbit 2.

The reason for this is that the dollar has strengthened a lot against basically every single currency in the world since July 2014, here is a chart showing it

Basically, to earn 1B WW, movies now need to make what would have been 1.2B WW just 6 months ago.

The Fed will put the kibash on that soon

 

[HaplessHenchman]

Looks like earning a Billion dollars WW just got much tougher recently. TF4 earned 1.2B WW in July, however if it was released today, it would end up with 995M. Same thing happened to Hobbit 3, it earned more than Hobbit 2 in every single country, but its final WW total ended up being around 5M lower than Hobbit 2.

The reason for this is that the dollar has strengthened a lot against basically every single currency in the world since July 2014, here is a chart showing it

Basically, to earn 1B WW, movies now need to make what would have been 1.2B WW just 6 months ago.

Good points. Thanks for posting.

 

[queendarkness12]

One factor that has to be noted that Warcraft could be a sleeper hit with an auteur like Duncan Jones at the helm.

 

[Val_Zod]

One factor that has to be noted that Warcraft could be a sleeper hit with an auteur like Duncan Jones at the helm.

Warcraft comes out 2 weeks before Batman v Superman. It won't factor in all that much.

 

[writer0327]

750-800M???

BvS should be doing 1B easily if the filmmakers are any good at their jobs. Hell, Captain America TWS did 715M, and Cap isn't even one of the big three. If they can barely do better than TWS, they seriously need to hand it ALL over to someone else.

 

[Marvin]

750-800M???

BvS should be doing 1B easily if the filmmakers are any good at their jobs. Hell, Captain America TWS did 715M, and Cap isn't even one of the big three. If they can barely do better than TWS, they seriously need to hand it ALL over to someone else.

Considering what MOS made compared to the last superman film and the first Cap film, they seem to be doing alright so far.
We'll see how the sequel does against other sequels.

One factor that has to be noted that Warcraft could be a sleeper hit with an auteur like Duncan Jones at the helm.

With WB's luck, that film's going to be the sleeper hit of the year.

 

[Pickleweasel]

Someone who keeps saying Warcraft is going to be a sleeper hit or whatever needs to post numbers that they think it is going to do and then explain to everyone how that is going to effect BvS 2 weeks later.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

]With WB's luck, that film's going to be the sleeper hit of the year.

You mean Universal?

 

[Pickleweasel]

You mean Universal?

I think he is trying to say WB is unlucky, but they aren't so idk

 

[The Shape]

I think he's trying to indicate that WB has bad luck?