BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - Part 10

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[jokesonm3]

BvS pulls in $13.15m in Australia for 2nd best opening of the year trailing the other superhero CBM, you guessed it, Deadpool ($14.94m)

http://www.mediaweek.com.au/box-office-report-batman-v-superman-pulls-13m/

Dear me...

 

[Stark Bauer]

Last thread closed. Revised my estimates on how much it will make over the next 4 months domestically:

Week 1: $207 million
Week 2: $82 million (-60%)
Week 3: $40 million (-51%)
Week 4: $17 million (-58%)
Week 5: $8 million (-53%)
Week 6: $4 million. (-50%)
Week 7: $1 million (-75%)
Weeks 8-16: $3 million

Grand Total: $362 million (2.18 multiplier), projected to finish 8th or 9th on the all time comic book to movie adaptations (depending on how much Deadpool ends up making)

Green Lantern had a 2.19 multiplier

Best case scenario: $415 (2.5x) less than TDKR (will be ranked #5)
Worst case scenario: $330 (1.99x) more than MOS (will be ranked #11)
I find the truth usually lies in between, but it is certainly fun to see what unfolds!

 

[db85usa]

Last thread closed. Revised my estimates on how much it will make over the next 2 months domestically:

Week 1: $207 million
Week 2: $100 million
Week 3: $40 million
Week 4: $17 million
Week 5: $8 million
Week 6: $4 million
Week 7: $1 million
Weeks 8-16: $3 million

Grand Total: $380 million

Compared to Deadpool which wrapped up Week 6 @ $11.5M and the fact that Captain America: Civil War is released on Week 6 for BvS -- not a good position. I struggle seeing this movie have decent legs. Not when CW is just around the corner followed by X-Men.

*edit* so I'll stick with my prediction. I can only project a 1.99x to 2.00x multiplier on the OW which is $330M-$332M. Very bad critic reviews + mixed audience = terrible legs this is too easy to forecast.

 

[Poni_Boy]

Last thread closed. Revised my estimates on how much it will make over the next 2 months domestically:

Week 1: $207 million
Week 2: $82 million (-60%)
Week 3: $40 million (-51%)
Week 4: $17 million
Week 5: $8 million
Week 6: $4 million
Week 7: $1 million
Weeks 8-16: $3 million

Grand Total: $362 million

I'm going to look at this as the best case scenario. Hopefully it pans out. My original dom prediction was $345

 

[jokesonm3]

Still believe that chances of this film reaching the billion dollar mark is now long out the window thanks to Zack Snyder.

Hell even if this film had the same RT and CinemaScore as Man of Steel it still would've gone past the billion dollar mark...

 

[catch22]

Only did 12m at the US Box Office on Tuesday. Pretty worrisome numbers

 

[Ita-KalEl]

Only did 12m at the US Box Office on Tuesday. Pretty worrisome numbers

Why? It's perfectly in line with big sh blockbuster movies.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=superherosmackdown.htm

 

[FunkMiller]

Friday night will be the kicker.

 

[Mandon Knight]

To some, frankly, it doesn't matter if this film was a success with critics, or financially a success with fans or any combination of what is deemed 'successful', in the terms its been released under, some people just wantt to hate on this film, regardless. That is the most depressing thing of all. For whatever reason, there are people out there who seemingly cannot see what is or was trying to be achieved with the film.

 

[Ita-KalEl]

Last thread closed. Revised my estimates on how much it will make over the next 4 months domestically:

Week 1: $207 million
Week 2: $82 million (-60%)
Week 3: $40 million (-51%)
Week 4: $17 million (-58%)
Week 5: $8 million (-53%)
Week 6: $4 million. (-50%)
Week 7: $1 million (-75%)
Weeks 8-16: $3 million

Grand Total: $362 million (2.18 multiplier), projected to finish 8th or 9th on the all time comic book to movie adaptations (depending on how much Deadpool ends up making)

Green Lantern had a 2.19 multiplier

Best case scenario: $415 (2.5x) less than TDKR (will be ranked #5)
Worst case scenario: $330 (1.99x) more than MOS (will be ranked #11)
I find the truth usually lies in between, but it is certainly fun to see what unfolds!

I agree with your prediction. The ww total should be between 900 and 1b

 

[Stark Bauer]

^ yeah 900 WW sounds about right.

Means Internationally BvS makes $558 million

 

[AnneFan]

Some people don't want the film to reach a big total, anyway.

 

[Poni_Boy]

^ yeah 900 WW sounds about right.

Means Internationally BvS makes $558 million

I'm sticking with $850 million. But I was under my OW prediction by $1 million so maybe I'm under here too.

 

[Kanon]

Only did 12m at the US Box Office on Tuesday. Pretty worrisome numbers

I think it's a pretty decent number (anything above 10m)

Looks like it's pulling numbers similar to SW EP II, adjusted for inflations, it did 120m OW, reaching 170 by Sunday (opened on Thursday), 1st monday 16m, 1st tuesday 11.2m. It ended with an adjusted $452m.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Why? It's perfectly in line with big sh blockbuster movies.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=superherosmackdown.htm

If you look at those comps though they all had much milder Tuesday drops. However that could just be a factor of more people going back to school/work after the holiday. Only time will tell!

 

[Jumpman]

Some people don't want the film to reach a big total, anyway.

Agreed.

 

[Tra-El]

The DCEU is here and written in stone, regardless. 2 movies in, there's plenty of time to hand the ball to other directors for a new handful of movies to give us directional and creative ways to work in together in creating different tones to each character. I think that's what most fans want and will get. That's the point in the Patty Jenkins, David Ayers and the James Wan's of the world. DC will get some awesome talent to direct.

 

[Webhead38]

This has been a fascinating movie to watch unfold. The studio went to great lengths to make noise to front load this film and that definitely worked. It made nice headlines for it's opening weekend. But it also made headlines for not being a critical darling like many in it's genre or being a decisive win for the fans. So now we have this very expensive film approaching the post-hype phase and entering a more direct measure of the public reception. The following weekend will really enlighten the masses on whether this brand is strong enough to endure the onslaught of the critical trashing that it took or whether the general audience is in lockstep with the critics. I think it's too early to say definitively one way or the other. But I will say this. The reaction to this movie reads ALLOT like Phantom Menace did when it was released. You had people so delirious through the wait, they were quick to anoint the film "greatest of all time" since they had spent so much time selling themselves on that belief during it's marketing campaign. Then you had the other side of the equation who felt it was a complete miss. Thus you had both sides bickering over the 'real intentions' of the other.

I think when the smoke clears and people have had time to exhale and get this film out of their system, wiser eyes will prevail and then we will see what we have. Like many films that follow a predictable trajectory domestically, this movie appears to be getting it's biggest support from overseas. Maybe this movie will play out like the last Pirates film when Jack Sparrow was growing tired to American audiences but was more than welcomed overseas, resulting in the foreign markets giving it an astounding 76% of it's total gross . So both markets have to be watched to see if early criticism is viewed equally on both sides of the pond. I would say the billion dollar question will be answered more on what the markets continue to do overseas than here at home.

 

[Knight-Tale]

It would have been better for WB to frontload the film like this
If it was seen as depending on china for a profit it would like like terminator genysis

Don't agree with the phantom menace comparisons for one thing George Lucas and Zack Snyder are two different monsters there
I think the studio made a judgement call that said they needed this movie to make a lot of money and it made no sense for a pg-13 movie to be 3 hours +

 

[spider-neil]

Some people don't want the film to reach a big total, anyway.

I do, despite my problems with the movie. I want to see DC movies and I don't want another reboot. Sometimes you have to lick your wounds and move on.
Imagine if Fast and Furious had stopped after number 2 and rebooted.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

I still think it will make a billion, but just barely. That's still pretty sad given the hype, subject matter, and that a billion dollars is no longer the barometer it once was for films of this magnitude. Last year alone had FIVE films go well over a billion.

 

[TheScarecrow]

No reboots pls, the cast is too good and we just got them.

 

[Flint Marko]

I still think it will make a billion, but just barely. That's still pretty sad given the hype, subject matter, and that a billion dollars is no longer the barometer it once was for films of this magnitude. Last year alone had FIVE films go well over a billion.

I'm like you. This thing will cross a billion but it's going to limp to the finish line, which is pathetic given the pedigree of the characters and the great release date. WB really dropped the ball here.